May 18, 2012

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12818.86 2813.69 788.73 1351.93

Thursday Close
12442.49 2933.64 754.33 1304.86

4 day change
-376.37 119.95 -34.4 -47.07

4 day change %
-2.94% 4.26% -4.36% -3.48%

ytd
1.81% 0.89% -4.52% 3.65%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 76.34% 23.66% 39.62% 9.44%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-1.66% -2.53% -0.91% -1.80% -1.68% -3.40% -1.87% -1.03% -1.54% -2.18% -1.73% -1.48% -2.16% -2.35% -2.55% -1.42%

MTD
-7.32% -12.32% -14.99% -6.08% -8.81% -8.63% -7.44% -2.64% -5.24% -9.69% -6.33% -9.07% -13.08% -7.36% -8.36% -6.34%

YTD
-1.57% -4.61% -11.01% 1.48% 3.85% 9.14% 7.22% 4.24% 8.48% -2.12% 5.36% 1.45% -12.21% 3.91% 1.55% -4.48%

Valuation
2.87% undervalued 24.98% undervalued 21.94% undervalued 11.12% undervalued 0.51% overvalued 6.23% undervalued 10.77% undervalued 4.14% overvalued 1.36% overvalued 1.87% undervalued 3.48% overvalued 4.17% undervalued 14.97% undervalued 2.34% overvalued 4.78% undervalued 2.78% overvalued

Last 12-M Return

-12.92% -20.68% -34.22% -7.42% -15.99% -16.27% -8.16% -11.13% -4.34% -16.90% -16.50% -11.77% -28.13% 1.10% -21.41% -9.81%

P/E Ratio
37.45 15.94 18.02 25.89 43.86 39.65 26.73 24.69 21.49 18.13 27.23 16.22 26.21 21.17 16.49 22.97

Sector TalkFinance
Below, we present the latest data on leading Finance Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
CRBC NCT MBI TAN WIBC

Name
CITIZENS BKNG NEWCASTLE INV MBIA INC GUGG-SOLAR WILSHIRE BCP

Mkt Price
15.84 6.49 8.6 18.35 5.25

Valuation(%)
-75 -35.26 -75 N/A -41.46

Last 12-M Retn(%)

108.42 41.7 -6.42 159.18 66.67

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
CRBC NCT TAN WIBC GCA

Name
CITIZENS BKNG NEWCASTLE INV GUGG-SOLAR WILSHIRE BCP GLOBAL CASH ACS

Mkt Price
15.84 6.49 18.35 5.25 7.04

Valuation(%)
-75 -35.26 N/A -41.46 -10.11

Last 12-M Retn(%)

108.42 41.7 159.18 66.67 128.57

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
CRBC NCT WIBC FITB MBI

Name
CITIZENS BKNG NEWCASTLE INV WILSHIRE BCP FIFTH THIRD BK MBIA INC

Mkt Price
15.84 6.49 5.25 13.29 8.6

Valuation(%)
-75 -35.26 -41.46 -29.28 -75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

108.42 41.7 66.67 6.49 -6.42

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
AI TRST FSP ART BKMU

Name
ARLINGTON ASSET TRUSTCO BK -NY FRANKLIN ST PPT ARTIO GLOBL INV BANK MUTUAL CRP

Mkt Price
22.86 5.31 9.9 3.06 3.47

Valuation(%)
300 300 300 300 300

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-1.64 -1.85 -20.93 -78.44 -10.1

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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com

Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.699) My semiannual pivot is 1.903 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 1.703, 1.726 and 1.734, the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.407 and 1.385. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1572.9) Annual and daily value levels are $1525.8 and $1506.1 with annual and weekly pivots at $1575.8 and 1612.6, and semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are $1643.8 and $1696.9. Nymex Crude--($92.49) Daily and semiannual value levels are $91.31 and $79.83 with a weekly pivot at $95.76 and quarterly, annual, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $101.55, $103.58, $104.84 and $108.53. Crude oil is below its 200-day SMA at $96.24. The Euro--(1.2690) Daily and monthly value levels are 1.2608 and 1.2257 with semiannual and weekly pivots at 1.2980 and 1.3085, and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3366, 1.4239 and 1.4405.

Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,442) Daily and annual value levels are 12,381 and 12,312 with quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels at 12,794, 13,354 and 14,032. S&P 500 (1304.9) My daily pivot is 1304.5 with quarterly, annual and monthly risky levels at 1337.7, 1363.2 and 1397.0. NASDAQ (2814) My annual value level is 2698 with a daily pivot at 2830, and quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels at 2911, 3041 and 3232. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2509) My annual value level is 2300 with a daily pivot at 2524, and annual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2603, 2608 and 2729. Dow Transports (4938) My semiannual value level is 4407 with a daily pivot at 4944 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at 5385 and 5420. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Russell 2000 (754.33) My semiannual value level is 572.90 with a daily pivot at 761.94, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 813.56, 829.34 and 836.88. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. The SOX (371.45) My daily pivot is 374.90 with the 200-day simple moving average at 387.87 and quarterly and monthly risky levels at 416.01 and 435.68. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

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