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Mc lc
CHNG 1 L DO CHN TI ............................................................................................ 3
1.1 Mc ch v ngha thc tin ..................................................................................................3
1.2 Phm vi v phng php kho st ...........................................................................................3
M hnh ...............................................................................................................................7
3.4 B s liu.................................................................................................................................8
c lng ......................................................................................................................... 15
Xc nh khong tin cy ca
Xc ng khong tin cy ca
Xc nh khong tin cy ca
Xc nh khong tin cy ca
2 .......................................................................................................29
3 ........................................................................................................29
4 .......................................................................................................29
5 .......................................................................................................29
Trang 1
5.1
nh gi m hnh ............................................................................................................... 30
5.2
ngha31
5.3
Trang 2
CHNG 1
L DO CHN TI
Trang 3
Phng php: ti c thc hin thng qua phiu kho st trc tip cho
tng sinh vin do nhm thc hin.
Tng s mu kho st: 150
S mu hp l: 145
Trang 4
CHNG 2
C S L LUN
2.1 L thuyt v thc tin
Ch thch:
X2: tng thu nhp (ngn ng/thng)
X3: tin tit kim ca sinh vin (ngn ng/thng)
X4: s ln t tp cng bn b (t nht l 1 ln, nhiu nht l 31 ln)
X5: chi tiu pht sinh ( ngn ng/thng)
Trang 5
2.2 D bo du
BIN
TN
D BO
BIN
DU
X2
K VNG
X3
sinh vin
S ln t tp cng
bn b
Chi tiu pht sinh
S ln t tp cng nhiu th mc
chi tiu cng nhiu
X5
Trang 6
CHNG 3
THU THP S LIU
3.1 M hnh
Ch thch:
X2: tng thu nhp (ngn ng/thng)
X3: tin tit kim ca sinh vin (ngn ng/thng)
X4: s ln t tp cng bn b (t nht l 1 ln, nhiu nht l 31 ln)
X5: chi tiu pht sinh ( ngn ng/thng)
D bo du
BIN
TN
D BO
BIN
DU
X2
K VNG
X3
sinh vin
S ln t tp cng
bn b
Chi tiu pht sinh
S ln t tp cng nhiu th mc
chi tiu cng nhiu
X5
Trang 7
3.4 B s liu
X2
X3
X4
X5
2500
450
20
250
2000
1000
10
200
600
3500
100
25
400
3000
2000
26
500
1500
1500
13
300
1500
2000
11
2000
2700
200
10
400
2000
2000
100
400
1500
2500
200
200
1000
1500
300
1200
2000
2000
2700
100
13
400
2000
Trang 8
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17
18
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30
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38
2000
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2000
2500
100
15
200
1500
2000
13
1000
1000
4000
500
30
500
2500
2500
200
13
300
2000
1200
50
12
200
950
2500
16
300
1800
1900
12
350
1400
2000
10
300
1700
3200
200
300
2500
3000
16
500
2000
1000
11
100
900
1700
12
400
1200
2000
13
200
1800
2800
14
300
2500
2000
18
100
1900
3000
19
200
2800
2000
26
1000
1100
500
600
200
3500
1500
1000
1000
2000
12
500
1500
2500
500
500
1500
1700
200
1500
2500
500
2000
3000
500
500
2000
2000
500
1500
Trang 9
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3300
300
300
2700
2000
200
20
100
1700
3000
23
1000
2000
2000
16
300
1700
1200
19
200
1000
2700
400
300
2000
3000
500
12
500
2000
2500
500
13
2000
1800
2000
10
200
1800
2000
200
1800
2000
500
1500
3000
1000
2000
5000
1000
1000
3000
2000
200
200
1600
2500
13
500
2000
2500
400
15
100
200
3000
16
1000
2000
2500
10
500
2000
2500
450
21
250
2000
1500
24
900
1000
4000
26
1000
3000
2700
11
500
2500
1000
400
500
2000
1000
1000
1500
100
100
400
3300
800
500
2500
Trang
10
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90
4000
200
3800
5500
400
200
2500
1300
100
700
300
100
12
3000
500
2500
2000
15
500
1500
1500
200
1300
3300
100
1000
2000
2500
15
500
2000
2500
500
2000
3000
1000
2000
5800
1000
12
1000
3000
5100
10
700
1400
2000
2000
3500
500
3000
2000
500
1500
2400
200
500
2000
200
300
1700
2000
11
500
1500
1000
15
500
3000
500
12
400
900
3000
500
16
1000
1500
2000
24
500
1500
2800
300
28
400
2500
2000
13
2000
4000
1000
500
1500
Trang
11
91
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1000
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2000
4000
500
16
1000
2000
3000
26
3000
2700
27
900
1800
2500
300
25
1200
1000
3250
500
30
500
2250
2000
12
500
1500
1500
500
1000
1500
300
1200
2000
800
100
1100
2000
500
16
200
1300
2000
200
13
300
1500
4000
12
1000
3000
1900
300
100
1500
2800
300
1000
1500
2500
300
2200
4500
500
12
1000
3000
2000
300
10
200
1500
2000
13
500
1500
3000
16
500
2500
2000
100
10
200
1700
1800
11
300
1500
2800
19
300
2500
3200
700
18
500
2000
3000
13
1500
1500
Trang
12
117
118
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500
500
1800
200
500
1000
1700
10
200
900
4500
500
19
2000
1500
300
300
2000
300
400
1300
2000
300
400
1300
3000
1000
20
200
1500
3700
2200
300
1200
3000
1000
2000
1500
11
500
1000
2500
10
200
2000
1500
200
500
1500
500
1200
1000
400
600
3500
1000
11
600
900
4000
2400
16
100
600
2000
500
1500
1000
300
2500
2500
2000
1000
1000
3000
21
1650
1350
1500
11
500
1000
2000
500
1500
1000
100
150
900
3500
25
300
3000
Trang
13
143
144
145
200
30
100
150
2700
200
1500
1000
1500
200
500
800
Trang
14
CHNG 4
C LNG V KIM NH M HNH
4.1 c lng
4.1.1 c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh mu
= +
Trang
15
4.1.2 Kim nh du
ca sinh vin tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu gim (hoc
tng)
ln.
ln.
=-
sinh tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu gim (hoc tng)
ln.
Trang
16
Ta dng thng k T
nu H0 ng ta c :
= 16.640528
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0
Kt lun: tng thu nhp c nh hng ti mc chi tiu.
Bi ton 2:
Kim nh s nh hng ca tit kim i vi tng chi tiu.
Ta c bi ton kim nh: {
Ta dng thng k T
T
nu Ho ng ta c
= -7.77544852
Trang
17
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0.
Kt lun: tin tit kim c nh hnng n mc chi tiu ca sinh vin. Tit kim cng
tng th chi tiu cng gim v ngc li tit kim cng gim th lm tng chi tiu cng
tng.
Bi ton 3:
Gi thuyt: S ln t tp cng bn b cng nhiu th sinh vin cng chi
tiu nhiu.
Bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
nu Ho ng ta c
= 1.7187363
nu Ho ng ta c
= -6.837936
Trang
18
, vi k=5 v n=145 . Nu
Ho ng ta c F=
= 74.643283
Vi mc ngha 5%
, ta c C =
=2.37
M hnh 2:
Tin hnh chy m hnh trn vi s liu thu thp c ta c kt qu hi quy nh sau:
Trang
19
nu H0 ng ta c :
= 17.0779
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0
Trang
20
nu Ho ng ta c
= -8.0390
nu Ho ng ta c
= - 6.8771
Trang
21
kt lun l: chi tiu pht sinh thay i s nh hng n tng chi tiu ca
sinh vin
Bi ton 4: kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh
Ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k F
, vi k=4 v n=145 Nu
Ho ng ta c F=
= 97.1930
Vi mc ngha 5%
, ta c C =
=2.37
M hnh 1:
thch c
M hnh 2:
tc l m hnh 1 c th gii
68% b s liu
= 0.674048 tc l m hnh 2 c th gii
thch c
b s liu
Trang
22
4.2.4 Tng thu nhp v chi tiu pht sinh c nh hng nh nhau ti tng chi tiu
ca sinh vin khng?
Nu H0 ng ta c thng k:
M Se(
) =
()
()
Trang
23
c t1455 t 0140
.05 1.960
V T c nn ta bc b H 0
kt lun: tng thu nhp v chi tiu pht sinh nh hng khc nhau ti mc chi tiu ca
sinh vin
Trang
24
khng i.
vy: m hnh hi quy ca Y theo X2, X3, X4, X5 c xy ra hin tng phng sai thay i.
Trang
25
Trang
26
Xt gia X2 v X3:
< 10
Trang
27
Xt gia X2 v X4:
Trang
28
Vi mc tin cy 95%,
.ta c
C=
= 1.96
Theo m hnh 5 ta c:
Se () = 0.046734
Se () = 0.113150
Se () = 5.432170
Se () = 0.091526
Khong c lng cho
[
()
Trang
29
CHNG 5
KT LUN
5.1 nh gi m hnh
Theo thc nghim kho st v nghin cu cho thy rng m hnh a ra ngay t
u l tng i chnh xc.
Y = 163.3541 + 0.743385X2 0.879792X3 + 9.336468X4 0.625849X5
Tuy nhin trong mt vi trng hp th bin s ln t tp cng bn b khng
c nh hng ti tng chi tiu trong thng ca sinh vin. a s cc trng hp
kim nh cho thy mc chi tiu ca sinh vin ph thuc vo: tng thu nhp, tin
tit kim, chi tiu pht sinh. V mt phn nh t vic t tp cng bn b.
Hn ch:
Bi lm ca nhm thc hin bn cnh nhng vic t c th cng km
theo mt s hn ch nh:
+ u tin l v bi kho st ch c thc hin trong mi trng ca sinh
vin khoa marketing, trng i hc Ti chnh-Marketing nn t hn vn
cha thuyt phc lm khi cho nh gi ton b chi tiu ca sinh vin
+ nhm ch nghin cu tc ng ca mt vi bin tiu biu nn c th tnh
khch quan cng nh chnh xc ca bi lm cha cao.\
+ l ln u tin thc hin nn cha c kinh nghim trong vic nhy bn
nm bt thng tin v ng dng chng hiu qu
Trang
30
5.2 ngha
Sau qu trnh kho st v nghin cu trn cho thy rng tng chi tiu trong
thng ca sinh vin chu nh hng ca nhiu yu t. thu nhp t gia nh hay t
vic lm thm cng nhiu th chi tiu li cng nhiu, tin tit kim cng nh chi
tiu pht sinh cng nhiu th tng chi tiu li cng gim chnh v th m cn
bng cho cuc sng cng nh chi tiu ph hp th mi ngi cn xy dng mt k
hoch chi tiu ph hp cho ring mnh d dng m bo ti sn cho ti cui
thng nha.
Trang
31