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Change
Sylvia Knight
climateprediction.net
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford
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“In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,
most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely (meaning a better than
a 2 in 3 chance) to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations”
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
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Hindcasting Past Climate
Natural only:
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And now for the next century: carbon dioxide
trends
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Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
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2080
temperature 2080
change (K) precipitation
change (%)
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Sources of Uncertainty
and How to Include Them In a Climate Forecast
Natural Variability:
The climate is chaotic with variations on timescales from minutes to
centuries.
Solution: Initial Condition Ensembles
Forcing uncertainty:
Changes due to factors external to the climate system e.g.
greenhouse gas emissions (natural and anthropogenic), solar
radiation etc.
Solution: Scenarios for possible futures.
Model uncertainty:
Different models could be as could at simulating the past but give a
different forecast for the future?
Solution: Perturbed-Physics Ensembles
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The problem with dealing with uncertainty in
climate change prediction
Objective: find as many as possible alternative,
equally realistic, model versions that respond
differently to increasing carbon dioxide, to explore the
full range of possibilities.
Perturbed Physics Initial Condition Forcing Ensemble
Ensemble Ensemble
Overall Grand
model set-up
Ensemble
Standard
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Estimating effective climate sensitivity from
short 2xCO2 runs
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A shortage of models with high climate
sensitivities?
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Ranges of opinion in climate sensitivity
(Morgan and Keith, 1995)
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Initial climateprediction.net experiment
Double CO2
15 yr, 2 x CO2
Diagnostics from final 8 yrs.
Derived fluxes
Calibration
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Time-evolving frequency distribution
Few remaining
negatively drifting
2xCO2 model versions
are an unrealistic
consequence of using
a slab ocean.
Stainforth et al.,
Nature, 2005
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Not The Day After Tomorrow: why we got some
negative sensitivities…
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Still they come: 47334 climateprediction.net
simulations passing initial quality control
Traditional range
Bad
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Uncertainty in global warming under two
scenarios of future emissions
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High risk of substantial warming even with
today’s greenhouse gas levels
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High risk of substantial warming even with
today’s greenhouse gas levels
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Regional responses: temperature and
precipitation
Standard model
version
Low sensitivity
model
High sensitivity
model
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Regional Behaviour – European Precipitation
Mediterranean Basin Northern Europe
Winter
Winter
Summer
Summer
Annual Annual
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Summer 2003 temperatures relative to 2000-2004
From NASA’s
MODIS - Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer,
courtesy of Reto
Stöckli, ETHZ
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Heat-wave blamed for US$12.3 billion uninsured
crop losses + US$1.6 billion forest fire damage
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Excess mortality rates in early August 2003
indicate 22,000 - 35,000 heat-related deaths
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Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?
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South Oxford on January 5th, 2003
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Model-simulated changes in extreme rainfall in
southern England
4-year 12-year
event event
2090 30-year
event
2000 1860
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“Plaintiffs ... must show that, more probably than not,
their individual injuries were caused by the risk factor in
question, as opposed to any other cause. This has
sometimes been translated to a requirement of a relative
risk of at least two.” (Grossman, 2003)
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By the 2030s, >50% of anthopogenic GHG
loading will be due to post-1990 emissions
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But what could be done?
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But what could be done?
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Climateprediction.net: the world’s largest
climate modelling facility
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www.climateprediction.net
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