Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nguyn c Phng
Bi ging
Xc sut & thng k
MSSV:
...........................
H tn: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mc lc
Mc lc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4.1
Xc sut c iu kin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4.2
S c lp ca hai bin c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
1.5.1
10
1.5.2
10
1.5.3
14
1.5.4
15
1.6 Bi tp chng 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
27
27
28
2.2.1
28
2.2.2
31
2.2.3
32
MC LC
ii
36
2.3.1
K vng - EX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
36
2.3.2
39
2.3.3
ModX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40
2.4 Bi tp chng 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42
50
50
51
53
55
56
3.6 Bi tp chng 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61
4 Lut s ln v cc nh l gii hn
69
69
70
4.2.1
Bt ng thc Markov . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
70
4.2.2
Bt ng thc Chebyshev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
70
4.3 Lut s ln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
71
72
73
4.5.1
73
4.5.2
74
4.5.3
75
77
77
77
5.2.1
77
MC LC
5.2.2
iii
(X, Y ) l vct ngu nhin lin tc . . . . . . . . . . .
81
5.3 Bi tp chng 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
86
6 L thuyt mu
92
92
6.2 M t d liu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
93
6.2.1
93
6.2.2
Sp xp s liu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
93
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
94
6.3.1
Trung bnh mu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
95
6.3.2
Phng sai mu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
95
6.3.3
96
99
101
7.3.2
7.3.3
111
8.1.2
Min ti hn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
8.1.3
8.1.4
MC LC
iv
136
9.1 M u . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
9.1.1
. . . . . . 136
9.1.2
Biu tn x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
141
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
148
151
Chng 1
Bin c, xc sut ca bin c
1.1
Kt qu = N l mt bin c s cp.
Ngc li nu trong ln th ny kt qu
/ A ta ni bin c A khng
xy ra.
khi
A A =
A A =
nh ngha xc sut
0 P (A) 1 vi mi bin c A.
P () = 0, P () = 1.
Nu A B th P (A) P (B).
P (A) = 1 P A .
a) Hai bi trng.
b) t nht mt bi trng.
Gii.
1.4
1.4.1
Xc sut c iu kin, s c lp
Xc sut c iu kin
4 bi trng
B xy ra
6 bi en
ly 1 bi trng
3 bi trng
6 bi en
30 n
5 n ht thuc
Gii.
P (AB)
,
P (B)
P (B) > 0
a) C 4 n trng tuyn.
b) C t nht mt n trng tuyn.
c) C 4 n trng tuyn, bit rng c t nht mt n trng tuyn.
Gii.
1.4.2
S c lp ca hai bin c
Gii.
10
P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B)
V d 1.17. Mt lp hc c 20 hc sinh trong c 10 hc sinh gii ton,
8 hc sinh gii vn v 6 hc sinh gii c ton v vn. Chn ngu nhin mt
hc sinh, tnh xc sut hc sinh ny gii t nht mt mn.
Gii.
11
V d 1.19. Trong mt k thi, mi sinh vin phi thi 2 mn. Mt sinh vin
A c lng rng: xc sut t mn th nht l 0,8. Nu t mn th nht
th xc sut t mn th hai l 0,6; nu khng t mn th nht th xc
sut t mn th hai l 0,3. Tnh xc sut sinh vin A:
a. t mn th hai.
b. t i mn, i = 0, 1, 2.
12
13
1.5.3
14
15
A0: Ly c 0 bi en
A1: Ly c 1 bi en
A2: Ly c 2 bi en
Khi A0 ; A1; A2 l h y .
Cng thc xc sut y : Cho A1; A2; . . . ; An (P (Ai ) > 0 ) l h y
cc bin c v B l mt bin c bt k. Xc sut xy ra bin c B
P (B) = P (A1) P (B|A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (B|A2) + + P (An ) P (B|An )
V d 1.22. Mt m ng c s n ng bng na s n b. Xc sut
n ng b bnh tim l 0,06 v n b l 0,036. Chn ngu nhin 1 ngi t
m ng, tnh xc sut ngi ny b bnh tim.
Gii.
1.5.4
i = 1, 2, . . . , n
16
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
17
Gii.
1.6
Bi tp chng 1
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
18
Tnh t l nhm ngi thch xem t nht mt trong hai th loi trn. (60%)
Gii.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Gii.
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
19
Gii.
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
20
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
21
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
22
Gii.
a.
b.
c.
d.
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
23
Gii.
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
24
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
25
Gii.
1.6 Bi tp chng 1
26
Chng 2
Bin ngu nhin
2.1
{X I}
I
R
{X I} = { : X() I} = A
X(N1 S2 ) = 1;
X(S1N2 ) = 1;
X(S1S2 ) = 2
28
x1
x2
f (x1) f (x2)
xn
f (xn)
Trong :
Dng 1 lit k gi tr c th ca X.
1
1/6
2
1/6
3
1/6
4
1/6
5
1/6
6
1/6
29
Nhn xt:
f (x1) + f (x2) + + f (xn) + = 1.
P
f (xi).
P (a < X < b) =
a<xi <b
V d 2.4. Cho bin ngu nhin ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut cho
nh sau:
X
P
1
a
1
2a
3
3a
5
4a
a. Xc nh a.
b. Xc nh P (X = 2) .
c. Xc nh P (1 < X < 4) .
Gii.
30
2.2.2
31
Ch . Vi nh ngha hm mt ta c
i. Nu X l bin ngu nhin lin tc th xc sut X thuc mt tp A R
c tnh bng tch phn ca hm mt f (x) trn tp A.
+
R
f (x)dx = 1
ii. Mi hm mt phi tha hai iu kin f (x) 0 v
V d 2.8. Cho hm s
( 3
x2
f (x) =
8
0
khi 0 x 2
ni khc
32
Gii.
2
1
0
-2
2.2.3
-1
33
Nhn xt:
Nu X l bin ngu nhin ri rc th
X
F (x) = P (X < x) =
f (xi)
xi <x
Zx
f (t)dt
1
0, 2
2
0, 5
3
0, 3
F (x)
0,4
0,2
0,0
0
Gii.
34
F (x)
0,5
0,0
-2
Gii.
-1
35
0 F (x) 1, x R; F () = 0; F (+) = 1
F (x) l hm khng gim (nu x1 < x2 th F (x1) F (x2)).
P (a X < b) = F (b) F (a).
Nu X l bin ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt f (x) th:
F (x) = f (x)
P (X = x) = 0,
x R v
36
Gii.
2.3
2.3.1
K vng - EX
x1
x2
f (x1) f (x2)
xn
f (xn)
+
R
37
xf (x)dx
V d 2.12. Anh A nui 5 con ln c cn nng (kg) 55, 55, 60, 70, 70. Chn
ngu nhin mt con v mang cn, gi X l cn nng.
a.
b.
c.
d.
Gii.
38
Ec = c, c l hng s.
E(cX) = cEX.
E(X + Y ) = EX + EY.
E(XY ) = EX EY khi X v Y c lp.
Cho Y = h(X) l hm ca bin ngu nhin X.
Khi X l bin ngu nhin ri rc
EY = Eh(X) = h(x1)f (x1) + + h(xn)f (xn) +
Khi X l bin ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt f (x) th
Z+
EY = Eh(X) =
h(x)f (x)dx
9 x2 + 1 khi x (0; 2)
5
f (x) = 40
0
khi x
/ (0; 2)
a. Tnh thi gian trung bnh mt ngi hc rnh ngh sa tivi.
b. Tnh E(2X + 3).
c. Tnh E(X 2).
Gii.
2.3.2
39
nh ngha 2.6 (Phng sai). Phng sai ca bin ngu nhin X, k hiu
VarX
VarX = E (EX X)2 = EX 2 (EX)2
V d 2.14. Anh A nui 5 con ln c cn nng (kg) 55, 55, 60, 70, 70. Chn
ngu nhin mt con v mang cn, gi X l cn nng. Tnh phng sai ca
X.
Gii.
ngha phng sai: Phng sai l trung bnh ca bnh phng sai khc
gia cc gi tr ca X so vi trung bnh ca n. Do phng sai dng
o phn tn cc gi tr ca X so vi trung bnh ca n. Ngha l phng
sai ln th phn tn ln v ngc li.
40
= VarX
V d 2.15. Gi thit ging v d 2.13. Thi gian hc rnh ngh sa ti vi
ca mt ngi l mt bin ngu nhin - X (nm) c hm mt .
9 x2 + 1 khi x (0; 2)
f (x) = 40
5
0
khi x
/ (0; 2)
Tnh phng sai ca X.
Gii.
= 1/2
=1
=2
3 2 1
4 x
ModX
41
1
0, 1
2
0, 3
3
0, 4
4
0, 2
ModX = 3 v P (X = 3) max
V d 2.17. Cho bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt
x3
x
khi x [0; 2]
f (x) =
4
0
khi x
/ [0; 2]
Xc nh ModX.
Gii.
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
2.4
42
Bi tp chng 2
a
0, 3
0, 1
0, 2
0, 3
0, 2
0, 4
0, 2
a. Gi tr ca tham s a EX = 0, 3. (-0,2)
b. Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
Gii.
2
0, 1
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
43
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
44
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
45
Gii.
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
46
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
47
Tm hng s k. (3/64)
Tm F (x).
Tm E (X), Var (X) v Mod(X). (12/5; 16/25; 8/3)
Tnh xc sut cn trng cht trc mt thng tui. (13/256)
Gii.
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
48
2.4 Bi tp chng 2
49
Bi tp 2.9. Cho hm s
f (x) =
kx(2 x)
0
3
6
c. Tnh xc sut P (Y > 2X) vi Y = X 3 .
2
5
5
Gii.
Chng 3
Mt s phn phi xc sut thng dng
3.1
0
q
1
p
51
k = 0, 1, . . . , n
52
Gii.
3.3
53
10 bi
7 bi en
k
bi en
c k bi en
N
N NA Phn t A c kP T A
n k Phn t A
Cng thc tnh xc sut cho X H(N, NA, n)
54
55
k e
k!
3.5
56
(x )2
2 2 ,
e
xR
th hm mt ca X N (; 2)
x
Nhn xt: th hm mt chun c dng hnh chung i xng qua
x=
Tnh cht 3.7. Cc c trng ca X N ; 2
i. EX = .
ii. VarX = 2 .
iii. ModX = .
57
= 1/2
=1
=2
x
f (z) =
e 2,
2
zR
3 2 1
3 x
b
a
P (a < X < b) =
V d 3.8. Cho bin ngu nhin X N 3; 22 . Tnh cc xc sut:
a. P (1 < X) .
b. P (|X 1| < 2) .
c. P (|X 1| > 1) .
58
59
60
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
3.6
61
Bi tp chng 3
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
62
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
63
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
64
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
65
A sin x
khi 0 < x < 1
3
f (x) =
0
ni khc
Gii.
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
66
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
67
c. Trung bnh c bao nhiu ngi th trn 60 tui tui trong 1000 dn.
(458,4)
Gii.
Xc nh hng s A. (9/40)
Thi gian hc rnh ngh trung bnh ca mt ngi. (1,3 nm)
Tnh xc sut mt ngi hc rnh ngh di 6 thng. (0,1094)
Chn ngu nhin 5 hc vin, tnh xc sut c 2 ngi hc rnh ngh
di 6 thng. (0,0845)
3.6 Bi tp chng 3
Gii.
68
Chng 4
Lut s ln v cc nh l gii hn
4.1
nh ngha 4.1 (Hi t theo xc sut). Cho dy bin ngu nhin {Xn }
v bin ngu nhin X. Ta ni {Xn } hi t theo xc sut n X, k hiu
P
Xn
X, nu vi mi > 0 th
lim P (|Xn X| < ) = 1
n+
Nu Xn
X th vi n ln chng ta c Xn X vi xc sut gn 1. Thng
P
thng, Xn hi t theo xc sut n bin ngu nhin X l hng s (Xn
,
l hng s) ngha l khi n ln th hu nh bin ngu nhin Xn khng c s
thay i.
P
nh ngha 4.2 (Hi t theo phn phi). nh ngha hi t theo phn phi
Cho dy bin ngu nhin {Xn } v bin ngu nhin X. Ta ni {Xn } hi t
F
theo phn phi n X, k hiu Xn
X, nu
lim P (Xn < x) = P (X < x) = F (x)
n+
Nu Xn
X th vi n ln chng ta c th xp x phn phi ca Xn bi
phn phi ca X. Vy hi t theo phn phi rt tin li cho vic xp x phn
phi ca bin ngu nhin Xn .
nh ngha 4.3 (Hi t hu chc chn). Cho dy bin ngu nhin {Xn }
v bin ngu nhin X. Ta ni {Xn } hi t hu chc chn n X, k hiu
a.s.
Xn X, nu Xn 6 X vi xc sut l khng.
70
0
Z+
Z+
f (x)dx = P (X )
xf (x)dx
Bt ng thc Chebyshev
Var (X)
2
Var (X)
2
hay tng ng
Chng minh. Ta thy X 2 l bin ngu nhin khng m v > 0. S
dng bt ng thc Markov vi := 2 ta c
i E (X )2
h
2
2
P (X )
V (X )2 2 khi v ch khi |X | nn
P (|X | )
Var (X)
2
4.3 Lut s ln
71
1 3
P (40 < X < 60) = P (|X 50| < 10) > 1 =
4 4
a. Theo bt ng thc Markov P (X > 75)
4.3
Lut s ln
khi n +.
Chng
v X1 , . .. , Xn l c lp v cng phn phi, ta c
Bi
minh.
2
Sn
Sn
v E
=
= . p dng bt ng thc Chebyshev, vi
Var
n
n
n
mi > 0,
Sn
2
P 2
n
n
72
C nh v khi n +
Sn
P 0
n
nh l gii hn trung tm
Sn
X,
4.5
4.5.1
73
.
Theo nh l gii hn trung tm X N (np; npq 2 ) khi n . Khi :
a np
b np
P (a X b) =
npq
npq
P (X = k) =
1
k np
f (z), (f (x)-A.1) trong z =
npq
npq
4.5.2
74
NA
.
p th X
Cho X H(N, NA, n). Nu c nh n, N v
N
NA
B(n, p), p =
N
Nhn xt: Khi X H(N, NA, n), nu N kh ln v n << N, (n < 0, 05N )
th
CNk A CNnk
N
A
NA
Cnk pk q nk , p =
P (X = k) =
n
CN
N
V d 4.4. Mt ao c c 10.000 c da trn, trong c 1.000 con c tra.
a. Tnh xc sut khi bt ngu nhin 20 con t ao th c 5 con c tra.
b. Tnh xc sut khi bt ngu nhin 50 con t ao th c 10 con c
tra.
Gii.
4.5.3
75
.
Cho X B(n, p) v khi n th X P () trong = np
Nhn xt: Khi X B(n, p) v khi n kh ln th
P (X = k) =
Cnk pk q nk
k e
k!
76
Chng 5
Vct ngu nhin
5.1
78
H
Y
H
H
X HH
H
y1
y2
yj
yn
Tng dng
x1
x2
..
.
f (x1 , y1 )
f (x2 , y1 )
..
.
f (x1 , y2 )
f (x2 , y2 )
..
.
f (x1 , yj )
f (x2 , yj )
..
.
f (x1 , yn )
f (x2 , yn )
..
.
f (x1 , )
f (x2 , )
..
.
xi
..
.
f (xi , y1 )
..
.
f (xi , y2 )
..
.
f (xi , yn )
..
.
f (xi , )
..
.
xm
Tng ct
f (xm , y1 )
f (, y1 )
f (xm , y2 )
f (, y2 )
f (xm , yn )
f (, yn )
f (xm , )
1
f (xi , yj )
..
.
f (xm , yj )
f (, yj )
Trong :
f (xi, yj ) = P (X = xi ; Y = yj )
n
m P
P
f (xi; yj ) = 1
i=1 j=1
6
7
8
0,1
0,1
0,05
0,15
0,2
0,2
0,05
0,1
0,05
Tnh:
a. P (X = 6; Y = 2) ; P (X = 4; Y = 6) .
b. P (X 7; Y 2) .
Gii.
79
x1
x2
f (x1, ) f (x3, )
xm
f (xm, )
yn
f (, yn)
y1
y2
f (, y1) f (, y2)
Trong f (, yj ) l tng ct j.
V d 5.3. Cho bng phn phi xc sut ng thi nh sau:
a.
b.
c.
d.
H
HH Y
X HHH
6
7
8
0,1
0,1
0,05
0,15
0,2
0,2
0,05
0,1
0,05
Gii.
80
x1
f (x1, yj )
f (, yj )
P(X = x|Y = yj )
x2
f (x2, yj )
f (.yj )
xm
f (xm, yj )
f (, yj )
y1
f (xi, y1)
f (xi, )
y2
f (xi, y2 )
f (xi, )
yn
f (xi, yn)
f (xi, )
6
7
8
0,1
0,1
0,05
0,15
0,2
0,2
0,05
0,1
0,05
81
5.2.2
a) Hm mt ng thi
nh ngha 5.1 (Hm mt ng thi). Hm s f (x, y) 0, (x, y) R2
c gi l hm mt ng thi ca (X, Y ) nu
ZZ
P ((X, Y ) A) =
f (x, y)dxdy, A R2
A
82
V d 5.5. Cho hm s
f (x, y) =
y=x
D:
0
0<x<1
hoc
0<y<x
x
0<y<1
y<x<1
83
y=x
D :
y = x/2
0
1
0<x<1
x/2 < y < x
Hm mt ca Y.
Z+
f (x, y)dy
fX (x) =
Z+
f (x, y)dx
fY (y) =
84
Tm hm mt ca X.
Tm hm mt ca Y.
Tnh P (X > 1/2) v EX.
Tnh P (Y < 1/2) v EX.
Gii.
y=x
D:
0
0<x<1
hoc
0<y<x
x
0<y<1
y<x<1
85
c) Hm mt c iu kin
Hm mt ca X vi iu kin Y = y
fX (x|Y = y) =
f (x, y)
fY (y)
Hm mt ca Y vi iu kin X = x
fY (y|X = x) =
f (x, y)
fX (x)
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
86
5.3
Bi tp chng 5
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
H
H
HH Y
HH
X
H
H
30
50
80
87
500
700
900
(400-600) (600-800) (800-1000)
0,10
0,05
0
0,15
0,20
0,05
0,05
0,05
0,35
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
88
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
89
1 y 2 + xy khi 0 3y x 6
f (x, y) = 40
20
0
ni khc
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
Gii.
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
90
5.3 Bi tp chng 5
91
Chng 6
L thuyt mu
6.1
Tng th, mu
6.2 M t d liu
93
M t d liu
6.2.1
Sp xp s liu
x1
n1
x2
n2
xk
nk
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu
94
4
1
5
3
6
5
7
1
a0 a1 a1 a2
n1
n2
ak1 ak
nk
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
39
59
41
41
43
4
35
7
37
10
Cc c trng ca mu
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu
6.3.1
95
Trung bnh mu
6.3.2
Phng sai mu
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu
6.3.3
96
1
2 + + (Xn X)
2
(X1 X)
n1
n 2
s .
n1
Ta thy phng sai mu v phng sai mu c n v o bng bnh phng
n v o ca c tnh X. chuyn v cng n v ta c khi nim:
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu
n 2
Phng sai mu c hiu chnh s2 =
s =
n1
97
6
43, 1598 = 51, 7907
5
=
51, 7907
Tnh
Tnh
Tnh
Tnh
n(n) : 1; =
x(
x) : 2; =
s(xn) : 3; =
s(xn 1) : 4; =
6.3 Cc c trng ca mu
98
im 5 6 7 8 9 10
S SV 2 4 12 15 6 2
a. Tnh x.
x =
1
(5 2 + 6 4 + 7 12 + 8 15 + 9 6 + 10 2) = 7, 6097
41
b. Tnh s2 .
x2 =
1 2
(5 2 + 62 4 + 72 12 + 82 15 + 92 6 + 102 2) = 59, 2195
41
99
Tnh
Tnh
Tnh
Tnh
n(n) : 1; =
x(
x) : 2; =
s(xn) : 3; =
s(xn 1) : 4; =
a. Trng hp X N (; 3)
N ;
X
(6.1)
n
Trong trng hp cha bit 2 ta c
X
T n1
S
(6.2)
100
b. Trng hp c mu ln
.
X
N
2
;
n
(6.3)
S2
;
n
(6.4)
X
N
.
2
hay r
X = X1 + . . . + Xn N np; npq
N (0; 1)
npq
n
(6.5)
i lng thng k
Chng 7
c lng tham s
7.1
7.2
c lng im
1
Ta nhn thy thng k = (X1 + Xn ) cng l mt c lng khng chch
2
cho . V vy c th ni c nhiu c lng khng chch cho . Vn cn
mt tiu chun chn mt thng k trong lp cc c lng khng chch
cho .
102
c lng khong
M t phng php.
7.3.2
103
XXX
XX
XXX C mu
XXX
XX
VarX
X
X
Bit
Khng bit
n 30
n < 30, X N (; 2)
= t 1
n 2
(t 1
tra bng A.2)
2
= t 1
n 2
(t 1
tra bng A.2)
2
s
= t 1
n 2
(t 1
tra bng A.2)
2
s
= tn1
n
(tn1
tra bng A.3).
5
10
6
35
7
45
8
36
9
10
10
8
=
= t 1
1, 96 = 0, 3267
n 2
144
Vy khong c lng
(1; 2 ) = (7, 1736 0, 3267; 7, 1736 + 0, 3267) = (6, 8469; 7, 5003)
104
1
2
= 0, 475. Tra
b. Khng bit
1, 2366
s
1, 96 = 0, 202
=
= t 1
n 2
144
Vy khong c lng (1 ; 2) = (7, 1736 0, 202; 7, 1736 + 0, 202) =
(6, 9716; 7, 3756)
Ch . Vi t0,475 = 1, 96 c tnh nh cu a.
V d 7.3. Kho st cn nng (kg) ca g khi xut chung, ngi ta cn
mt s con v kt qu cho nh sau:
2,1; 1,8; 2,0; 2,3; 1,7; 1,5; 2,0; 2,2; 1,8
Gi s cn nng ca g l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Vi tin
cy 95% c lng cn nng trung bnh ca g khi xut chung:
a. Bit = 0, 3.
b. Khng bit .
Gii. T mu ta tnh c n = 9; x
= 1, 9333; s = 0, 2549.
Gi l cn nng trung bnh ca g khi xut chung.
a. Cho bit = 0, 3
0, 3
1, 96 = 0, 196
= t 1
=
n 2
9
Vy khong c lng
(1 ; 2 ) = (1, 9333 0, 196; 1, 9333 + 0, 196) = (1, 7373; 2, 1293)
b. Khng bit
0, 2549
s
2, 306 = 0, 1959
=
= tn1
n
9
Vy khong c lng (1; 2 ) = (1, 9333 0, 1959; 1, 9333 + 0, 1959) =
(1, 7374; 2, 1292)
105
= t 1
=
1, 96 = 0, 4276
n 2
121
106
b. Xc nh c mu n.
2
2
s
+ 1 = 2, 4 1.96 + 1 = 139
n = t 1
0, 4
2
c. Xc nh tin cy, trc ht ta tnh
n 0, 5 121
t 1
=
= 2, 29
=
2
s
2, 4
1
2
8
= 0, 01 .
f=
800
p l t l ph phm ca nh my.
107
chnh xc ca c lng t l
r
r
f (1 f )
0, 01(1 0, 01)
t 1
=
1, 96 = 0, 0069
=
2
n
800
Vy khong c lng cho p vi tin cy 95% l
(p1; p2) = (0, 01 0, 0069; 0, 01 + 0, 0069) = (0, 0031; 0, 0169)
Ch . Xc nh cc ch tiu c lng
a Xc nh c mu n nh nht sao cho chnh xc khng ln hn v
2
f (1 f )
. n nh nht tha iu
tin cy l 1 Ta c n
t 1
2
2
kin trn l
2
f (1 f )
+1
n =
t 1
2
2
.
2
f (1 f )
V t y d dng tnh c 1 bng bng A.2.
128
= 0, 16 .
f=
800
7.4 Bi tp chng 7
108
n
= 0, 022
f (1 f )
1
2
800
= 1, 69
0, 016(1 0, 016)
Bi tp chng 7
7.4 Bi tp chng 7
109
7.4 Bi tp chng 7
110
Chng 8
Kim nh gi thit
8.1
8.1.1
Min ti hn
112
Khi chn mt trong hai quyt nh trn s ny sinh ra hai sai lm:
Sai lm loi I: Bc b H0 khi H0 ng, xc sut sai lm loi I l
P (C|H0) = P ((X1, . . . , Xn) C|H0)
Sai lm loi II: Chp nhn H0 khi H0 sai, xc sut sai lm loi II l
1 = P ((X1, . . . , Xn )
P C|H
/ C|H1)
XXX
XX
XXX
Thc t
Kt lun
Chp nhn H0
Bc b H0
XXX
XX
X
X
113
Sai lm loi II
Kt lun ng
Bit 2
n 30
t=
t 1
2
Khng bit 2
|
x 0 |
n
(Bng A.2)
|
x 0 |
n
s
(Bng A.2)
(t 1
2
t=
114
n < 30, X N (; 2)
t=
t 1
2
|
x 0 |
n
(Bng A.2)
|
x 0 |
n
s
tn1
(Bng A.3)
t=
Kt lun
Chp nhn gi thit H0 khi t t 1
hoc t tn1
2
n1
hoc
t
>
t
Bc b gi thit H0 khi t > t 1
0, 1
t > t 1
nn bc b gi thit. Vy gim c bo co sai.
2
115
0, 1
nn bc b gi thit. Vy thc n mi c tc dng tt.
t > t 1
2
8.3
Kim nh gi thit v t l
116
Cn kim nh gi thit
Gi thit H0 : p = 0, 7
i thit H1 : p =
6 0, 7
|0, 54 0, 7|
|f p0|
n=
1000 = 11, 04
t= p
0, 7.0, 3
p0(1 p0)
128
= 0, 16
800
Gi thit H0 : p = 40%
i thit H1 : p =
6 40%
|f p0|
|0, 16 0, 4|
t= p
n=
800 = 13, 871
0, 4.0, 6
p0(1 p0)
117
n1 ; n2 30
Bit 12 ; 22
|
x1 x2|
t=s
12 22
+
n1 n2
(Bng A.2)
t 1
2
|
x1 x2|
t=s
12 22
+
n1 n2
(Bng A.2)
t 1
2
|
x1 x2|
t= s
s22
s21
+
n1 n2
t 1
(Bng A.2)
2
|
x1 x2|
t=s
s2
s2
+
n1 n2
tn1 +n22 (Bng A.3)
2
n1 +n2 2
Bc b gi thit H0 khi t > t 1
hoc
t
>
t
2
2
Gi thit H0 : 1 = 2
i thit H1 : 1 =
6 2
118
119
So snh hai t l
|f1 f2|
1
f (1 f )
+
n1
t= s
1
n2
Kt lun:
.
Chp nhn gi thit H0 khi t t 1
2
Bc b gi thit H0 khi t > t 1
.
2
V d 8.7. T hai m ng tin hnh 2 mu vi n1 = 100, n2 = 120 tnh
c t l phn t loi A trn mu 1, 2 ln lt f1 = 0, 2 v f2 = 0, 3. Vi
mc ngha = 1% cho kt lun t l phn t A ca 2 m ng c nh
nhau khng.
20 + 36
= 0, 255.
Gii. Tnh f =
100 + 120
Gi p1 , p2 (cha bit) t l phn t A trn tng th 1, 2. Cn kim nh gi
thit
Gi thit H0 : p1 = p2
i thit H1 : p1 6= p2
|0, 2 0, 3|
= 1, 695
1
1
+
0, 255.0, 745
100 120
t=s
120
V d 8.8. Kim tra 120 sinh vin trng A thy c 80 sinh vin gii, 150
sinh vin trng B c 90 sinh vin gii. Hi t l sinh vin gii ca 2 trng
nh nhau khng? Bit mc ngha l 5%.
Gii.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
8.6
121
Bi tp chng 8
35
5
57
14
79
16
9 11
8
11 13
6
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
122
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
123
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
124
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
125
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
126
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Khong c lng thi gian mang thai trung bnh ca thai ph vi tin
cy 95% l:
A. (39,1049 tun; 39,7215 tun).
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
127
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
c lng thi gian mang thai trung bnh ca thai ph vi tin cy 95%
v chnh xc nh hn = 0, 25(tun) th c mu nh nht l:
A. 175.
B. 185.
C. 195.
D. 165.
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
S dng mu trn c lng thi gian mang thai trung bnh ca thai ph
vi chnh xc = 0, 25(tun) th m bo tin cy:
A. 86,82%.
B. 87,82%.
C. 88,82%.
D. 89,82%.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
128
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
Vi tin cy 95% khong c lng t l thai ph sinh non:
A. (2,63%; 10,95%).
B. (3,63%; 11,95%).
C. (4,63%; 12,95%).
D. (1,63%; 9,95%).
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
c lng t l thai ph sinh non vi tin cy 95% v chnh xc nh
hn = 0, 04 th c mu nh nht l:
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
A. 121.
129
B. 141.
C. 151.
D. 131.
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non. S
dng mu trn c lng t l thai ph sinh non vi chnh xc = 0, 04
th m bo tin cy:
A. 91,99%.
B. 95,99%.
C. 93,99%.
D. 97,99%.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
130
Thi gian 34 36
S thai ph
7
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Trong kim nh gi thuyt H: thi gian mang thai trung bnh ca thai ph
l 39,7 tun, mc ngha ti a gi thuyt H c chp nhn l:
A. 6,72%.
B. 7,72%.
C. 8,72%.
D. 9,72%.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
131
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
Gi tr thng k t kim nh gi thuyt H: t l thai ph sinh non l 12%
l:
A. t = 2,1037; t l thai ph sinh non thp hn 12% vi mc ngha 5%.
B. t = 2,1037; t l thai ph sinh non ln hn 12% vi mc ngha 5%.
C. t = 1,1037; t l thai ph sinh non cao hn 12% vi mc ngha 5%.
D. t = 1,1037; t l thai ph sinh non l 12% vi mc ngha 5%.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
132
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
Trong kim nh gi thuyt H: t l thai ph sinh non l 12%, mc ngha
ti a gi thuyt H c chp nhn l:
A. 3,48%.
B. 4,48%.
C. 5,48%.
D. 6,48%.
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
133
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
B. 3,74%.
C. 1,74%.
D. 4,74%.
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
134
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
Kho st thi gian mang thai ca 100 thai ph c ht thuc v tnh c
thi gian mang thai thy c 16 thai ph sinh non. Gi tr thng k t kim
nh gi thuyt H: t l sinh non ca thai ph c ht thuc v khng ht
thuc l nh nhau l:
A. t = 2,4753; t l sinh non ca thai ph khng ht thuc ln hn vi
mc ngha 5%.
B. t = 2,4753; t l sinh non ca thai ph c ht thuc ln hn vi mc
ngha 5%.
C. t = 1,4753; t l sinh non ca thai ph khng ht thuc ln hn vi
mc ngha 5%.
D. t = 1,4753; t l sinh non ca thai ph c ht thuc ln hn vi mc
ngha 5%.
36 38
10
38 40
59
40 42
41
42 44
4
8.6 Bi tp chng 8
135
Nhng thai ph c thi gian mang thai di 36 tun l thai ph sinh non.
Kho st thi gian mang thai ca 100 thai ph c ht thuc v tnh c thi
gian mang thai thy c 16 thai ph sinh non. Trong kim nh gi thuyt H:
t l sinh non ca thai ph c ht thuc v khng ht thuc l nh nhau,
mc ngha ti a gi thuyt H c chp nhn l:
A. 1,32%.
B. 2,32%.
C. 3,32%.
D. 4,32%.
p n cu hi trc nghim
8.3 A
8.5 C
8.7 D
8.9 B
8.11 A
8.13 D
8.15 B
8.4 B
8.6 D
8.8 C
8.10 A
8.12 A
8.14 C
8.16 A
Chng 9
Tng quan, hi qui
9.1
9.1.1
M u
S liu trong phn tch tng quan, hi qui
9.1.2
18
19
19
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
76,0 77,0 76,3 77,3 77,7 78,8 78,2 79,0 80,2 80,6
Biu tn x
79
76
77
78
height
78
76
77
height
79
80
137
80
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
18
age
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
age
Hnh a
Hnh b
H s tng quan
1
n
n
P
xy x y
sx sy
xiyi
i=1
138
rxy = 0 hai bin s khng c quan h tuyn tnh, rxy = 1 th hai bin
s c quan h tuyn tnh tuyt i (cc cp (xi; yi) thuc mt ng
thng).
rxy < 0 quan h gia x, y l nghch bin (c ngha l khi x tng th y
gim)
rxy > 0 quan h gia x, y l ng bin (c ngha l khi x tng cao th y
tng)
V d 9.2. Nghin cu o lng cholesterol (Y ) trong mu ca 10 i
tng nam ca ngi tui (X). Kt qu o lng nh sau:
X 20 52 30 57 28 43 57 63 40 49
Y 1,9 4 2,6 4,5 2,9 3,8 4,1 4,6 3,2 4
n
1X
451
x =
= 45, 1;
xi =
n i=1
10
1X
35, 6
y =
= 3, 56
yi =
n i=1
10
9.3
xy x.y
sx. sy
169, 54 33, 9 3, 56
= 0, 914
11, 785 0.8333
Tm ng thng hi qui
139
xy x.
y
2
sx
a = y b
x
sy
= rxy
xx
sx
thay cc gi tr y, x
, s x , s y , rxy c tnh v d trn vo ta c kt qu
y = 0, 9311 + 0, 05988x
9.4
140
52=
4=
Ph lc A
Cc bng gi tr xc sut
142
z
1 e 2
2
f (z)
z
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,00
0,3989
0,3970
0,3910
0,3814
0,3683
0,3521
0,01
0,3989
0,3965
0,3902
0,3802
0,3668
0,3503
0,02
0,3989
0,3961
0,3894
0,3790
0,3653
0,3485
0,03
0,3988
0,3956
0,3885
0,3778
0,3637
0,3467
0,04
0,3986
0,3951
0,3876
0,3765
0,3621
0,3448
0,05
0,3984
0,3945
0,3867
0,3752
0,3605
0,3429
0,06
0,3982
0,3939
0,3857
0,3739
0,3589
0,3410
0,07
0,3980
0,3932
0,3847
0,3725
0,3572
0,3391
0,08
0,3977
0,3925
0,3836
0,3712
0,3555
0,3372
0,09
0,3970
0,3911
0,3815
0,3684
0,3522
0,3334
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
0,3332
0,3123
0,2897
0,2661
0,2420
0,3312
0,3101
0,2874
0,2637
0,2396
0,3292
0,3079
0,2850
0,2613
0,2371
0,3271
0,3056
0,2827
0,2589
0,2347
0,3251
0,3034
0,2803
0,2565
0,2323
0,3230
0,3011
0,2780
0,2541
0,2299
0,3209
0,2989
0,2756
0,2516
0,2275
0,3187
0,2966
0,2732
0,2492
0,2251
0,3166
0,2943
0,2709
0,2468
0,2227
0,3125
0,2899
0,2663
0,2422
0,2181
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
0,2179
0,1942
0,1714
0,1497
0,1295
0,2155
0,1919
0,1691
0,1476
0,1276
0,2131
0,1895
0,1669
0,1456
0,1257
0,2107
0,1872
0,1647
0,1435
0,1238
0,2083
0,1849
0,1626
0,1415
0,1219
0,2059
0,1826
0,1604
0,1394
0,1200
0,2036
0,1804
0,1582
0,1374
0,1182
0,2012
0,1781
0,1561
0,1354
0,1163
0,1989
0,1758
0,1539
0,1334
0,1145
0,1944
0,1716
0,1499
0,1297
0,1111
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
0,1109
0,0940
0,0790
0,0656
0,0540
0,1092
0,0925
0,0775
0,0644
0,0529
0,1074
0,0909
0,0761
0,0632
0,0519
0,1057
0,0893
0,0748
0,0620
0,0508
0,1040
0,0878
0,0734
0,0608
0,0498
0,1023
0,0863
0,0721
0,0596
0,0488
0,1006
0,0848
0,0707
0,0584
0,0478
0,0989
0,0833
0,0694
0,0573
0,0468
0,0973
0,0818
0,0681
0,0562
0,0459
0,0942
0,0791
0,0657
0,0541
0,0441
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
0,0440
0,0355
0,0283
0,0224
0,0175
0,0431
0,0347
0,0277
0,0219
0,0171
0,0422
0,0339
0,0270
0,0213
0,0167
0,0413
0,0332
0,0264
0,0208
0,0163
0,0404
0,0325
0,0258
0,0203
0,0158
0,0396
0,0317
0,0252
0,0198
0,0154
0,0387
0,0310
0,0246
0,0194
0,0151
0,0379
0,0303
0,0241
0,0189
0,0147
0,0371
0,0297
0,0235
0,0184
0,0143
0,0356
0,0284
0,0224
0,0176
0,0136
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3,0
0,0136
0,0104
0,0079
0,0060
0,0044
0,0132
0,0101
0,0077
0,0058
0,0043
0,0129
0,0099
0,0075
0,0056
0,0042
0,0126
0,0096
0,0073
0,0055
0,0040
0,0122
0,0093
0,0071
0,0053
0,0039
0,0119
0,0091
0,0069
0,0051
0,0038
0,0116
0,0088
0,0067
0,0050
0,0037
0,0113
0,0086
0,0065
0,0048
0,0036
0,0110
0,0084
0,0063
0,0047
0,0035
0,0104
0,0079
0,0060
0,0044
0,0033
0,03
0,0030
0,0022
0,0016
0,0011
0,0008
0,04
0,0029
0,0021
0,0015
0,0011
0,0008
143
z
3,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
0,00
0,0033
0,0024
0,0017
0,0012
0,0009
0,01
0,0032
0,0023
0,0017
0,0012
0,0008
0,02
0,0031
0,0022
0,0016
0,0012
0,0008
0,05
0,0028
0,0020
0,0015
0,0010
0,0007
0,06
0,0027
0,0020
0,0014
0,0010
0,0007
0,07
0,0026
0,0019
0,0014
0,0010
0,0007
0,08
0,0025
0,0018
0,0013
0,0009
0,0007
0,09
0,0024
0,0017
0,0012
0,0009
0,0006
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
0,0006
0,0004
0,0003
0,0002
0,0006
0,0004
0,0003
0,0002
0,0005
0,0003
0,0002
0,0002
0,0005
0,0003
0,0002
0,0001
0,0004
0,0003
0,0002
0,0001
Gi tr hm (x) =
Rx
0
1
2
144
exp 12 z 2 dz
(x)
0,00
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
0,09
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,0000
0,0398
0,0793
0,1179
0,1554
0,1915
0,0040
0,0438
0,0832
0,1217
0,1591
0,1950
0,0080
0,0478
0,0871
0,1255
0,1628
0,1985
0,0120
0,0517
0,0910
0,1293
0,1664
0,2019
0,0160
0,0557
0,0948
0,1331
0,1700
0,2054
0,0199
0,0596
0,0987
0,1368
0,1736
0,2088
0,0239
0,0636
0,1026
0,1406
0,1772
0,2123
0,0279
0,0675
0,1064
0,1443
0,1808
0,2157
0,0319
0,0714
0,1103
0,1480
0,1844
0,2190
0,0359
0,0753
0,1141
0,1517
0,1879
0,2224
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
0,2257
0,2580
0,2881
0,3159
0,3413
0,2291
0,2611
0,2910
0,3186
0,3438
0,2324
0,2642
0,2939
0,3212
0,3461
0,2357
0,2673
0,2967
0,3238
0,3485
0,2389
0,2704
0,2995
0,3264
0,3508
0,2422
0,2734
0,3023
0,3289
0,3531
0,2454
0,2764
0,3051
0,3315
0,3554
0,2486
0,2794
0,3078
0,3340
0,3577
0,2517
0,2823
0,3106
0,3365
0,3599
0,2549
0,2852
0,3133
0,3389
0,3621
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
0,3643
0,3849
0,4032
0,4192
0,4332
0,3665
0,3869
0,4049
0,4207
0,4345
0,3686
0,3888
0,4066
0,4222
0,4357
0,3708
0,3907
0,4082
0,4236
0,4370
0,3729
0,3925
0,4099
0,4251
0,4382
0,3749
0,3944
0,4115
0,4265
0,4394
0,3770
0,3962
0,4131
0,4279
0,4406
0,3790
0,3980
0,4147
0,4292
0,4418
0,3810
0,3997
0,4162
0,4306
0,4429
0,3830
0,4015
0,4177
0,4319
0,4441
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
0,4452
0,4554
0,4641
0,4713
0,4772
0,4463
0,4564
0,4649
0,4719
0,4778
0,4474
0,4573
0,4656
0,4726
0,4783
0,4484
0,4582
0,4664
0,4732
0,4788
0,4495
0,4591
0,4671
0,4738
0,4793
0,4505
0,4599
0,4678
0,4744
0,4798
0,4515
0,4608
0,4686
0,475
0,4803
0,4525
0,4616
0,4693
0,4756
0,4808
0,4535
0,4625
0,4699
0,4761
0,4812
0,4545
0,4633
0,4706
0,4767
0,4817
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
0,4821
0,4861
0,4893
0,4918
0,4938
0,4826
0,4864
0,4896
0,4920
0,4940
0,4830
0,4868
0,4898
0,4922
0,4941
0,4834
0,4871
0,4901
0,4925
0,4943
0,4838
0,4875
0,4904
0,4927
0,4945
0,4842
0,4878
0,4906
0,4929
0,4946
0,4846
0,4881
0,4909
0,4931
0,4948
0,4850
0,4884
0,4911
0,4932
0,4949
0,4854
0,4887
0,4913
0,4934
0,4951
0,4857
0,4890
0,4916
0,4936
0,4952
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3,0
0,4953
0,4965
0,4974
0,4981
0,4987
0,4955
0,4966
0,4975
0,4982
0,4987
0,4956
0,4967
0,4976
0,4982
0,4987
0,4957
0,4968
0,4977
0,4983
0,4988
0,4959
0,4969
0,4977
0,4984
0,4988
0,4960
0,4970
0,4978
0,4984
0,4989
0,4961
0,4971
0,4979
0,4985
0,4989
0,4962
0,4972
0,4979
0,4985
0,4989
0,4963
0,4973
0,4980
0,4986
0,4990
0,4964
0,4974
0,4981
0,4986
0,4990
x
3,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
0,00
0,4990
0,4993
0,4995
0,4997
0,4998
0,01
0,4991
0,4993
0,4995
0,4997
0,4998
0,02
0,4991
0,4994
0,4995
0,4997
0,4998
0,03
0,4991
0,4994
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
0,4998
0,4999
0,4999
0,5000
0,4998
0,4999
0,4999
0,5000
Bng
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,5000 0,5000
A.2: Gi tr hm
0,04
0,4992
0,4994
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
0,05
0,4992
0,4994
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,5000 0,5000
ca phn phi
0,06
0,4992
0,4994
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
145
0,07
0,4992
0,4995
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
0,08
0,4993
0,4995
0,4996
0,4997
0,4998
0,09
0,4993
0,4995
0,4997
0,4998
0,4998
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,4999 0,4999
0,5000 0,5000
chun n gin
0,4999
0,4999
0,4999
0,5000
0,4999
0,4999
0,4999
0,5000
P (|T | > tn ) =
/2
/2
-tn
tn
HH
HH
n
H
H
0,14
0,13
0,12
0,11
0,10
0,09
0,08
0,07
0,06
0,05
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
1
2
3
4
5
4,474
2,383
1,995
1,838
1,753
4,829
2,495
2,072
1,902
1,810
5,242
2,620
2,156
1,971
1,873
5,730
2,760
2,249
2,048
1,941
6,314
2,920
2,353
2,132
2,015
7,026
3,104
2,471
2,226
2,098
7,916
3,320
2,605
2,333
2,191
9,058
3,578
2,763
2,456
2,297
10,579
3,896
2,951
2,601
2,422
12,706
4,303
3,182
2,776
2,571
15,895
4,849
3,482
2,999
2,757
21,205
5,643
3,896
3,298
3,003
31,821
6,965
4,541
3,747
3,365
63,657
9,925
5,841
4,604
4,032
6
7
8
9
10
1,700
1,664
1,638
1,619
1,603
1,754
1,715
1,687
1,666
1,650
1,812
1,770
1,740
1,718
1,700
1,874
1,830
1,797
1,773
1,754
1,943
1,895
1,860
1,833
1,812
2,019
1,966
1,928
1,899
1,877
2,104
2,046
2,004
1,973
1,948
2,201
2,136
2,090
2,055
2,028
2,313
2,241
2,189
2,150
2,120
2,447
2,365
2,306
2,262
2,228
2,612
2,517
2,449
2,398
2,359
2,829
2,715
2,634
2,574
2,527
3,143
2,998
2,896
2,821
2,764
3,707
3,499
3,355
3,250
3,169
11
12
13
14
15
1,591
1,580
1,572
1,565
1,558
1,636
1,626
1,616
1,609
1,602
1,686
1,674
1,664
1,656
1,649
1,738
1,726
1,715
1,706
1,699
1,796
1,782
1,771
1,761
1,753
1,859
1,844
1,832
1,821
1,812
1,928
1,912
1,899
1,887
1,878
2,007
1,989
1,974
1,962
1,951
2,096
2,076
2,060
2,046
2,034
2,201
2,179
2,160
2,145
2,131
2,328
2,303
2,282
2,264
2,249
2,491
2,461
2,436
2,415
2,397
2,718
2,681
2,650
2,624
2,602
3,106
3,055
3,012
2,977
2,947
A.3
146
H
HH
HH
n
H
0,14
0,13
0,12
0,11
0,10
0,09
0,08
0,07
0,06
0,05
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
16
17
18
19
20
1,553
1,548
1,544
1,540
1,537
1,596
1,591
1,587
1,583
1,579
1,642
1,637
1,632
1,628
1,624
1,692
1,686
1,681
1,677
1,672
1,746
1,740
1,734
1,729
1,725
1,805
1,798
1,792
1,786
1,782
1,869
1,862
1,855
1,850
1,844
1,942
1,934
1,926
1,920
1,914
2,024
2,015
2,007
2,000
1,994
2,120
2,110
2,101
2,093
2,086
2,235
2,224
2,214
2,205
2,197
2,382
2,368
2,356
2,346
2,336
2,583
2,567
2,552
2,539
2,528
2,921
2,898
2,878
2,861
2,845
21
22
23
24
25
1,534
1,531
1,529
1,526
1,524
1,576
1,573
1,570
1,568
1,566
1,621
1,618
1,615
1,612
1,610
1,669
1,665
1,662
1,660
1,657
1,721
1,717
1,714
1,711
1,708
1,777
1,773
1,770
1,767
1,764
1,840
1,835
1,832
1,828
1,825
1,909
1,905
1,900
1,896
1,893
1,988
1,983
1,978
1,974
1,970
2,080
2,074
2,069
2,064
2,060
2,189
2,183
2,177
2,172
2,167
2,328
2,320
2,313
2,307
2,301
2,518
2,508
2,500
2,492
2,485
2,831
2,819
2,807
2,797
2,787
26
27
28
29
30
1,522
1,521
1,519
1,517
1,516
1,564
1,562
1,560
1,558
1,557
1,608
1,606
1,604
1,602
1,600
1,655
1,653
1,651
1,649
1,647
1,706
1,703
1,701
1,699
1,697
1,761
1,758
1,756
1,754
1,752
1,822
1,819
1,817
1,814
1,812
1,890
1,887
1,884
1,881
1,879
1,967
1,963
1,960
1,957
1,955
2,056
2,052
2,048
2,045
2,042
2,162
2,158
2,154
2,150
2,147
2,296
2,291
2,286
2,282
2,278
2,479
2,473
2,467
2,462
2,457
2,779
2,771
2,763
2,756
2,750
40
60
80
100
1000
1,506
1,496
1,491
1,488
1,477
1,546
1,535
1,530
1,527
1,515
1,589
1,577
1,572
1,568
1,556
2,123
2,099
2,088
2,081
2,056
2,250
2,223
2,209
2,201
2,173
2,423
2,390
2,374
2,364
2,330
2,704
2,660
2,639
2,626
2,581
147
Ph lc B
Gii thch l thuyt
B.1
B.1.1
c lng khong
c lng khong cho trung bnh
T 6.1 trang 99 ta c
N
X
2
;
n
suy ra T =
Gi t 1 l gi tr ca T sao cho
2
Thay T vo ta c
X
N (0; 1)
P t 1 < T < t 1 = 1
2
2
+ t
t
=1
<
<
X
P X
n 1
n 1
2
2
t
+ t
Vy ta c 1 = X
v
=
X
2
n 1
n 1
2
2
Cc trng hp cn li gii tng t.
149
Gi t 1 l gi tr ca T sao cho
2
P t 1 < T < t 1 = 1
2
2
Thay T vo ta c
r
r
X/n(1 X/n)
X/n(1 X/n)
P X/n
< t 1 < p < X/n +
< t 1 = 1
n
n
2
2
Kim nh gi thit
So snh trung bnh vi mt s
150
vi c l mt gi tr no .
Nu cho trc mc ngha , chng ta s xc nh gi tr ti hn c trong
(B.2) sao cho sai lm loi I bng vi . Do , c phi thoi
0 | > c| = 0 =
0 | > c|H0 = hay P |X
(B.3)
P |X
0
X
X
=
N (0; 1)
n
n
By gi (B.3) tr thnh
c n
P |T | >
=
c n
= t 1 . Vy ta bc b H0 khi
2
0 |
|X
T =
> t1
2
n
B.2.2
So snh t l vi mt s