QTTC 2 SV 01/07

Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Chng 4 TAC ONG ON BAY LEN DOANH LI VA RUI RO CUA DOANH NGHIEP
t va chnh sach tai tr en li nhuan va rui ro cua doanh nghiep.

Muc ch: nghien cu anh hng cua phng thc san xuat, cach thc au Noi dung:
1. Gii thieu ve on bay hoat ong, on bay tai chnh 2. Phan tch hoa von 3. Phan tch on bay hoat ong 4. Phan tch on bay tai chnh 5. Phan tch tac ong tong hp cua on bay hoat ong va on bay tai chnh 1. KHAI QUAT VE ON BAY VA RUI RO 1.1. Phan loai chi ph Chi ph cua doanh nghiep xet theo moi quan he vi san lng, doanh thu c chia thanh hai loai: -

Bien ph: la nhng chi ph thay oi ty le vi thay oi cua san

lng hoac doanh thu. Bien ph: Chi ph nguyen vat lieu, chi ph nhan cong, chi ph bao b, mot phan chi ph ien, nc, hoa hong ban hang.

doanh thu thay oi (trong gii han nhat nh). nh ph: Chi ph khau hao TSC, chi ph thue nha, chi ph bao hiem, bao tr, chi ph quan ly, lai vay...

nh ph: la nhng chi ph khong thay oi khi san lng,

Khi doanh thu, san lng tang hoac giam th bien ph cung tang hoac giam theo con nh ph th van gi nguyen, khong thay oi. Neu cong ty co ty le nh ph cao th trong ieu kien san xuat kinh doanh thuan li, doanh thu tang len th cong ty se at c li nhuan cao, ngc lai neu gap nhng rui ro lam cho doanh thu sut gaim th cong ty se b lo nhieu hn. e nghien cu anh hng cua nh ph en li nhuan va rui ro cua doanh nghiep ngi ta thng dung ky thuat phan tch hoa von. 1.2. Gii thieu on bay i vao phan tch sau hn tac ong cua nh ph en tng mc li nhuan va tng loai rui ro, ta nghien cu on bay kinh doanh va on bay
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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

tai chnh tren c s nh ph c chia thanh hai thanh phan la nh ph hoat ong va nh ph tai chnh va xem xet anh hng cua tng loai.
nh ph hoat ong La nhng chi ph co nh phat sinh gan lien vi qua trnh san xuat va tieu thu san pham. nh ph hoat ong do ac iem hoat ong cua nganh, cach thc san xuat, cach thc au t cua doanh nghiep quyet nh, bao gom: Khau hao TSC Chi ph bao hiem, bao tr Chi ph quan ly Tien thue nha... nh ph tai chnh La nh ph phat sinh trong qua trnh doanh nghiep huy ong cac nguon tai tr. nh ph tai chnh do cach thc tai tr, c cau von cua cong ty quyet nh, bao gom: Lai vay Lai tien thue TSC Co tc co phan u ai

Nhn t bang can oi ke toan co the hnh dung nh sau: TAI SAN Tai san lu ong nh ph hoat ong NGUON VON N Von co phan u ai Von co thng on bay hoat ong Operating Leverage Li nhuan hoat ong Rui ro kinh doanh Li nhuan cho co ong, rui ro tai LI NHUAN VA RUI RO on bay tai chnh Financial Leverage phan nh ph tai chnh

Tai san co nh

e xem xet anh hng cua hai loai nh ph nay en li nhuan cua doanh nghiep nh the nao, hay noi rong hn la cach thc au t va tai tr anh hng en li nhuan nh the nao ta xet bao cao thu nhap nh sau:

Ths To Th Thanh Truc

QTTC 2 SV 01/07

Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

BAO CAO THU NHAP 1. Doanh thu 2. Bien ph 3. Lai gop trc nh ph (so d am on bay hoat ong ph) 4. nh ph hoat ong 5. Li nhuan trc lai vay va thue EBIT (Earning before Interest and Tax) 6. Lai vay 7. Li nhuan trc thue 8. Thue TNDN 9. lai rong 10. Co tc u ai 11. Li nhuan cho co ong thng
on bay tai chnh

Thay oi DT

Thay oi EBIT

12. So lng co phan 13. Li nhuan mot co phan - EPS (Earning per Share)

Thay oi EPS

Khi phan tch doanh thu thay oi th EBIT thay oi nh the nao qua tac ong cua nh ph hoat ong chnh la phan tch on bay hoat ong. on bay hoat ong tac ong en rui ro kinh doanh. Khi phan tch EBIT thay oi th EPS thay oi ra sao di tac ong cua nh ph tai chnh la chung ta phan tch tac ong cua on bay tai chnh. on bay tai chnh tao ra rui ro tai chnh thu thay oi di tac ong tong hp cua hai loai nh ph. 1.3. Gii thieu rui ro Rui ro la s khong chac chan ve mc li nhuan ma doanh nghiep se at c trong tng lai. Hai loai rui ro doanh nghiep phai ng pho: rui ro kinh doanh va rui ro tai chnh. loai: Tren giac o cua doanh nghiep rui ro cua doanh nghiep gom hai Rui ro kinh doanh: la rui ro cua tai san cua doanh nghiep khi no khong s dung n.

on bay tong hp phan tch anh hng thay oi cua EPS khi doanh

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Rui ro tai chnh: la rui ro tang them ma chu s hu cua cong ty ganh chu v cong ty ty s dung n. Rui ro kinh doanh: Rui La loai rui ro tiem tang trong hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, la tnh khong chan chan (bien ong) ve mc EBIT cua doanh nghiep khi co cac yeu to khac tac ong.

Rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep phu thuoc vao nhieu nhan to co the ke ra mot so nhan to sau:
D kien khong chan chan ve sc cau trong tng lai. S bien ong gia ban S bien ong gia cac yeu to au vao Kha nang ieu chnh gia au ra theo s thay oi cua gia au vao Mc o canh tranh tren th trng Thay oi cong nghe Mc o s dung nh ph h. Cac nhan to nay c quyet nh mot phan bi ac trng cua nganh cong nghiep, tuy nhien cac yeu to gay ra rui ro tren cung co the c kiem soat phan nao bi doanh nghiep. Trong cac yeu to anh hng en rui ro kinh doanh th nh ph la nhan to ma cong ty co the kiem soat c. Mot kha canh nao o, rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep b tac ong bi cac au t cua doanh nghep, v nh ph hoat ong la do cac au t cua doanh nghiep va cach thc san xuat cua doanh nghiep tao ra. Rui ro tai chnh: Rui ro tai chnh la s bien ong cua EPS va xac suat mat kha nang chi tra do doanh nghiep s dung nguon tai tr co ch ph tai chnh co nh nh n va co phan u ai. Cac chi ph s dung von nh lai vay va co tc u ai ac trng cho cac ngha vu ma cong ty phai ap ng bat ke mc EBIT nao. Viec gia tang s dung n va co phan u ai lam tang cac chi ph tai chnh co nh va cac chi ph nay lai lam tang mc EBITma DN phai at c e ap ng cac ngha vu tai chnh va duy tr hoat ong. Do o, ay la loai rui ro ma cac co ong thng phai ganh chu khi DN khong at c mc EBIT u e bu ap lai vay va co tc co phan u ai. Neu cong ty khong s dung n co ong cua cong ty ch ganh chu rui ro kinh doanh, la rui ro co hu trong hoat ong cua cong ty the hien qua s bien ong li nhuan hoat ong. Neu cong ty s dung n co ong phai ganh chu them rui ro do viec s dung n nay.
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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Rui ro tai chnh la rui ro tang them vt qua rui ro kinh doanh c ban cua doanh nghiep ma co ong ganh chu do s dung on bay tai chnh Rui ro tai chnh do cau truc nguon von cua cong ty tao ra.

Tom lai:
Rui ro cua doanh nghiep gom rui ro kinh doanh va rui ro tai chnh. Cau truc chi ph la mot nhan to anh hng en rui ro kinh doanh, rui ro tai chnh do cau truc nguon von quyet nh. 2. Phan tch hoa von

ph va li nhuan bang 0, the hien san lng hoac doanh thu. San lng hoa von: Chung ta co cac tng quan sau: Li nhuan = Doanh thu thuan - Chi ph Chi ph = nh ph + Tong bien ph

iem hoa von: la mc o hoat ong phai at c e doanh thu bang chi

Li nhuan = Doanh thu thuan - (Tong nh ph + Tong bien ph ) e de dang phan tch ta dung cac k hieu: - Q: San lng tieu thu - P: Gia ban n v - V:Bien ph n v - F: Tong nh ph -TC: tong chi ph - S: Doanh thu thuan vay ta co : S = Q x P Tong bien ph = Q x V EBIT = Q x P - Q x V- F EBIT = Q ( P - V) - F Tai iem hoa von EBIT = 0 nen Q ( P - V ) - F = 0 Goi QBE la mc san lng ma tai o cong ty hoa von th: QBE = F P-V

Doanh thu hoa von SBE

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Doanh thu hoa von = san lng hoa von hoac Doanh thu hoa von = F/ (1 tong bien ph/tong doanh thu) = F/(1 v/p).

V Du:
Xac nh san lng va doanh thu hoa von cho cong ty BW biet: nh ph $100.000 n gia ban $43,75 Bien ph n v $18,75 Tai iem hoa von: QBE = FC / (P - V) QBE = 100.000 / (43,75 - 18,75) QBE = 4.000 SP SBE = (QBE )(V) + FC SBE = 4.000 SP x 43,75 $/SP SBE = 175.000$

250
Doanh thu va chi ph (ngan USD)

Tong DT

L i

Tong CP

175

nh ph Lo Bien ph

100 50

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

San lng san xuat va tieu thu

Chu y: Do yeu cau va muc ch phan tch khac nhau, ngi ta co cac cach phan
tch khac nhau ve iem hoa von.

Ths To Th Thanh Truc

QTTC 2 SV 01/07

Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

iem hoa von la iem ma tai o doanh thu bang chi ph hoat ong. Tai o li nhuan hoat ong (Li nhuan trc lai vay va thue bang 0), nh ph hoat ong c bu ap. - iem hoa von la iem ma tai o doanh thu bang tong chi ph (chi ph hoat ong va chi ph tai chnh). Tai o li nhuan trc thue bang khong, toan bo nh ph cua doanh nghiep gom nh ph hoat ong va nh ph tai chnh c bu ap. 3. Phan tch on bay hoat ong va rui ro kinh doanh on bay hoat ong phan anh mc o ma nh ph c s dung trong hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, on bay hoat ong la cach ma nha quan tr tai chnh s dung e at c ty le tang cao ve li nhuan so vi ty le tang nho hn nhieu ve doanh thu. Nh e cap phan trc, rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep phu thuoc mot phan vao mc o cong ty s dung nh ph hoat ong, neu nh ph hoat ong cao, ch can mot s thay oi nho trong doanh thu cung gay rra s thay oi ln trong li nhuan hoat ong (EBIT). Nhng nganh co mc o t ong hoa cao va tham dung von thng co nh ph cao va do o rui ro kinh doanh cung cao hn. Tuy vay, nhng cong ty s dung nhieu cong nhan co ky nang cao van phai gi lai cong nhan va tra lng cao trong giai oan san xuat suy giam cung co mc o nh ph cao tng ng. Neu nh ph chiem ty le cao trong tong chi ph ta noi cong ty co on bay hoat ong cao. san pham nh nhau, gia ban n v san pham la 2 $ nhng mc o trang b tai san khac nhau (nh ph khac nhau). Cong ty A au t nhieu vao ky thuat, trang b tai san co nh hien ai hn nen mh ph rat ln, cong ty co the giam chi ph ve nhan cong nen bien ph n v thap, Cong ty nay co kha nang san xuat rat cao. Cong ty B trang b cong nghe ky thuat thap nen nh ph thap hn, nhng oi hoi nhieu nhan cong do o bien ph n v cao hn. Chi ph cua hai cong ty c cho nh sau: A nh ph ( $ ) Bien ph n v ( $ ) 0,8 B 1,6

V Du: Co hai cong ty A va B cung san xuat va kinh doanh mot loai

60.000 12.000

Ths To Th Thanh Truc

QTTC 2 SV 01/07

Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Khao sat tnh hnh thay oi li nhuan theo doanh thu cua hai cong ty :
A San lng 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 Doanh thu 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 160.000 200.000 Tong BP QxV 16.000 24.000 32.000 40.000 48.000 64.000 80.000 Tong CP F+QxV 76.000 84.000 92.000 100.000 108.000 124.000 140.000 EBIT Tong BP QxV 32.000 48.000 64.000 80.000 96.000 128.000 160.000 B Tong CP F+QxV 44.000 60.000 76.000 92.000 EBIT

-36.000 -24.000 -12.000 0 12.000 36.000 60.000

-4000 0 4000 8000

108.000 12.000 140.000 20.000 172.000 28.000

Nhan xet:
iem hoa von cua hai cong ty: Q A= FA P- VA FB P- VB = 60.000 2 - 0,8 12.000 2 -1,6

QB =

Ths To Th Thanh Truc

QTTC 2 SV 01/07

Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

o th hoa von Cong ty A

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000

Doanh thu Lai hoat ong Tong Lo hoat ong iem hoa von nh ph chi ph hoat

USD

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

O TH HOA VON CONG TY B

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000

Doanh thu Tong chi ph hoat

Lai hoat ong

USD

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Lo hoat ong

iem hoa von

nh ph

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Nhan xet:
-

San lng hoa von cua cong ty A cao hn cong ty B. Cong ty

B hoa von mc san lng 30.000 vt qua mc san lng nay cong ty a co li. Trong khi o san lng hoa von cua A la 50.000. mc ma cong ty B vt qua iem hoa von va a co lai t 30.000 en 50.000 th cong ty A van chu lo. Nhng vt qua

iem hoa von th EBIT cua cong ty A rat ln va tang nhanh hn nhieu so vi Cong ty B.
-

nhuan cua cong ty A nhay cam vi s bien ong cua doanh thu hn cong ty B.
-

Khi san lng tieu thu tang t 60.000 en 80.000 th EBIT A tang t 12.000 en 36.000; EBIT B tang t 12.000 en 20.000, Khi san lng tieu thu tang t 80.000 en 100.000 th EBIT A tang t 36.000 en 60.000; EBIT B tang t 20.000 en 28000 ta thay EBIT A tang gap 3 lan mc tang EBIT B. Ngha la li

Cong ty A co kha nang at c li nhuan cao hn cong ty B nhng rui ro cung cao hn.

Mc o cua on bay hoat ong ( Degree of operating Leverage ) Mc o on bay hoat ong the hien ty le % thay oi li nhuan hoat ong - EBIT do doanh thu, san lng thay oi 1%. Mc o on bay Ty le % thay oi li nhuan hoat ong ( EBIT) = hoat ong Ty le % thay oi doanh thu (hoac san lng) DOL = (EBIT2 - EBIT1 ) / EBIT1 (Q2 - Q1) / Q1

EBIT = Q( P - V) - F EBIT1 = Q1( P - V) - F EBIT2 = Q2( P - V) - F (EBIT2 - EBIT1 ) = Q1( P - V) - F -[ Q2( P - V) - F ] = Q1( P - V) - Q2( P - V) = (Q2 - Q1)( P - V)
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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

DOL =

(Q2 - Q1)( P - V)/ Q1( P - V) - F (Q2 - Q1) / Q1 Q1( P - V) Q1( P - V) - F

DOL =

Cong thc tong quat tnh mc o on bay hoat ong: Theo mc san lng Q : DOLQ = Theo doanh thu S DOLS = S - VC S VC - FC EBIT + FC EBIT Q ( P - V) Q ( P - V) - F

Theo EBIT

DOLEBIT =

VD: Tnh mc o on bay hoat ong cua cong ty A va B mc san lng 80.000
DOLA = = 2,67 80.000 ( 2 - 0,8) - 60.000 80.000 ( 2 - 1,6) 80.000 ( 2 -1,6 ) - 12.000 = 1,6 80.000 ( 2 - 0,8)

DOLB =

Cong ty A: khi san lng tieu thu thay oi 1% th EBIT thay oi 2,67% Cong ty B: khi san lng tieu thu thay oi 1% th EBIT thay oi 1,6 % Co ngha la khi san lng tieu thu tang 1% th EBIT cua cong ty A tang 2,67%, EBIT cua cong ty B tang 1,6% nhng neu san lng tieu thu giam 1% th EBIT cua cong ty A giam 2,67% con EBIT cua cong ty B ch giam 1,6%.

Ths To Th Thanh Truc

11

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

cong ty A on bay hoat ong cao hn nen EBIT rat nhay cam vi s thay oi cua san lng tieu thu. Vay on bay hoat ong cang cao th EBIT co kha nang c khuyech ai cang ln nhng ong thi cung tang o rui ro cho doanh nghiep v ch can mot s sut giam nho cua san lng tieu thu cung dan en s sut giam ln cua EBIT.

Y ngha cua DOL

DOL la ch tieu o lng o nhay cam cua li nhuan hoat ong theo s thay oi cua doanh thu. Khi so sanh cac doanh nghiep, doanh nghiep co DOL cao nhat la doanh nghiep co EBIT nhay cam nhat theo s thay oi cua doanh thu. Rui ro kinh doanh: S khong chac chan co hu trong hoat ong cua doanh nghiep. Anh hng cua no la s bien ong cua li nhuan hoat ong cua DN (EBIT). th li nhuan se rat nhay cam vi bien ong cua doanh thu.

Ket luan chung:

-

- Khi mot doanh nghiep co ty le nh ph cao trong tong chi ph - DOL ch la mot thanh phan cua rui ro kinh doanh va ch tac
ong trong trng hp doanh thu va chi ph san xuat bien ong.
-

DOL khuyech ai s bien ong cua li nhuan do o khuyech ai rui ro kinh doanh.

4. on bay tai chnh on bay tai chnh ch viec s dung cac nguon tai tr tao chi ph tai chnh co nh. on bay tai chnh at c do viec la chon cac nguon tai tr va c s dung nh la mot phng tien lam tang li nhuan cho chu s hu. Phan tch EBIT EPS

V du:
Co 3 doanh nghiep trong cung mot nganh san xuat giong nhau ve c cau tai san, tong tai san, EBIT, thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la 50%. Doanh nghiep A co ty le n 75%, doanh nghiep B ty le n la 50% con doanh nghiep C khong s dung n vay. Tong tai san va c cau nguon von cua 3 cong ty cho bang sau: n v: USD
Ths To Th Thanh Truc 12

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

A (75%) Von chu s hu So lng co phan (CP) N vay Tong von 200.000 50.000 10.000 150.000

B (50%) 100.000 20.000 100.000 200.000

C (0) 200.000 40.000 0 200.000

Sau ay la bang tnh doanh li von chu s hu di cac ieu kien kinh te khac nhau (EBIT) khac nhau:

ANH HNG CUA ON BAY TAI CHNH LEN THU NHAP MOI CO PHAN (EPS) VA TY SUAT DOANH LI VON CHU S HU (ROE)
Ty le n Khoan Muc EBIT/ Tong tai san Suy thoai ieu kien kinh te Di TB Trung bnh Phat trien That PT

- EBIT - Lai vay (8%) - Thu nhap chu Cong thue ty A - Thue thu nhap (75%) - Lai rong - ROE - So lng co phan - EPS - EBIT - Lai vay (8%) - Thu nhap chu thue - Thue thu nhap Cong - Lai rong ty B - ROE
Ths To Th Thanh Truc

-6% -12.000 12.000 -24.000 -12.000* -12.000 -24%

10.000
-1,2

4% 8.000 12.000 -4000 -2000 -2000 -4%

10.000

8% 16.000 12.000 4.000 2.000 2.000 4%

-0,2

10.000

18% 36.000 12.000 24.000 12.000 12.000 24%

0,2

10.000

1,2

10.000

30% 60.000 12.000 48.000 24.000 24.000 48% 2,4

-12.000 8000 -20.000 -10.000* -10.000 -4%

20.000
13

20.000

8.000 8000 0 0 0 0%

20.000

16.000 8000 8000 4000 4000 4%

20.000

36.000 8000 28.000 14.000 14.000 14%

20.000

60.000 8000 52.000 26.000 26.000 26%

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

- So lng co phan - EPS - EBIT - Lai vay (8%) - Thu nhap chu thue - Thue thu nhap Cong - Lai rong ty C - ROE (0%) - So lng co phan - EPS (50%) Nhan xet:

-0.5 -12.000 0 -12.000 -6.000* -6.000 -3%

0 8.000 0 8.000 4.000 4.000 2% 0,1

0,2 16.000 0 16.000 8.000 8.000 4%

0,7 36.000 0 36.000 18.000 18.000 9%

1,3 60.000 0 60.000 30.000 30.000 15%

40.000

-0,15

40.000

40.000

0,2

40.000

0,45

40.000

0,75

TNG QUAN GIA EBIT VA EPS BA CONG TY CO ON BAY TAI CHNH KHAC NHAU
3 2.5 2 1.5

75%

50% iem hoa von EBIT 0% n

EPS

1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

EBIT cua cac doanh nghiep trong moi ieu kien kinh te bang nhau v EBIT khong chu anh hng cua on can n. Nam tnh trang cua nen kinh te c gia nh vi EBIT i t -4.000 trong trng hp nen kinh te suy thoai len en 60.000 trong trng hp nen kinh te that hng thnh, phat trien.

Ket Luan:
Ths To Th Thanh Truc

0 4, 00 0 8, 00 0 12 ,0 00 16 ,0 00 20 ,0 00 24 ,0 00 28 ,0 00 32 ,0 00 36 ,0 00 40 ,0 00 44 ,0 00 48 ,0 00 52 ,0 00 56 ,0 00 60 ,0 00

EBIT

14

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Tac ong on bay en li nhuan va rui ro

Khi nen kinh te (doanh nghiep) trong tnh trang kho khan, EBIT/ Tong tai san nho hn lai suat cho vay viec s dung n gay bat li cho doanh nghiep, khong nen s dung n. Khi EBIT/ tong tai san bang lai suat cho vay th s dung n khong anh hng en doanh li von chu s hu. Nen kinh te (doanh nghiep ) trang thai phat trien tot EBIT/ tong tai san ln hn lai suat cho vay, s dung n co tac dung khuyech ai doanh li von chu s hu , ROE va EPS gia tang cung vi viec s dung n trong c cau von.

Cong thc tnh EPS tai mc EBIT cho trc vi cau truc von cho trc:

(EBIT - I) (1 - t) - PD. EPS

PD: co tc co phan u ai t: Thue suat thue TNDN EPS: Li nhuan mot co phan Mc o on bay tai chnh - DFL (Degree of Financial Leverage) Mc o on bay tai chnh the hien ty le % thay oi cua EPS khi EBIT thay oi 1% Ty le % thay oi EPS Mc o on bay = hoat ong (DFL) Ty le % thay oi EBIT (EPS1 - EPS0 )/ EPS0 DFL = (EBIT1 - EBIT0 )/ EPS = (EBIT - Iv)(1-t)- Pd n n

So lng CP thng

(EBIT1 - Iv)(1-t) - Pd (EPS1 - EPS0 ) EPS0 = n

(EBIT0 - Iv)(1-t) - Pd

(EBIT0 - Iv)(1-t) -Pd n = EBIT1 - EBIT0 EBIT0 Iv-Pd/(1(1-t)

EBIT1 - EBIT0 DFL = EBIT0 - Iv EBIT1 - EBIT0 EBIT0

Ths To Th Thanh Truc 15

EBIT1 - EBIT0 EBIT0 Iv Pd/(1-t)

Q0 (P - V) - F Q0 (P - V) - F Iv Pd/(1-

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Cong thc tnh DFL:

-Theo san lng Q

D FL Q =
- Theo EBIT

Q(p v) - F Q(p v) - F- I - [ PD / (1 - t) ]

DFL EBIT =

EBIT EBIT - I - [ PD / (1 - t) ]

VD: Tnh mc o on bay tai chnh cua 3 doanh nghiep tren mc EBIT 36.000 DFLC = 36.000/ (36.000 - 0) = 1 DFLB = 36.000/ (36.000 - 8.000) = 1,29 DFLA = 36.000/ (36.000 -12.000) = 1,5 oi vi cong ty C khi EBIT thay oi 1% th EPS thay oi 1%; cong ty B khi EBIT thay oi 1% th EPS thay oi 1,29%; cong ty A khi EBIT thay oi 1% th EPS thay oi 1,5%.

Ket luan:
on bay tai chnh co kha nang lam gia tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu (ROE) nhng cung se a cong ty vao mot rui ro rat ln, ngha la neu ty suat sinh li tren toan bo tai san cao th ROE cao hn nhng neu ty suat sinh li tren toan bo tai san thap th ROE tr nen thap hn. Doanh nghiep s dung nguon tai tr tao chi ph tai chnh co nh (n vay va co phan u ai) cang nhieu th on bay tai chnh cang ln. DFL cang ln rui ro tai chnh cang cao v ch can mot s sut giam nho cua EBIT cung lam cho doanh li von chu s hu giam ang ke.

on bay tai chnh va rui ro tai chnh:

Rui ro tai chnh la s bien ong tang them trong li nhuan mot co phan (EPS) va rui ro mat kha nang chi tra gay ra bi on bay tai chnh. V: N lam tang xac suat mat kha nang thanh toan bang tien mat so vi s dung von co phan. N cung lam gia tang s bien ong cua EPS.

Khi cong ty gia tang ty trong nguon tai tr co chi ph co nh trong c cau nguon von th dong tien phai chi ra co nh e tra lai va co tc u
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ai cung gia tang, Ket qua la xac suat mat kha nang chi tra tang theo. e minh hoa ieu nay, chung ta xem xet hai cong ty M va N eu co EBIT la 80.000$. Cong ty M khong s dung n, trong khi cong ty N phat hanh 200.000$ trai phieu vnh vien vi lai suat 15%. Nh vay, hang nam cong ty N phai tra 30.000$ tien lai. Neu EBIT cua hai cong ty giam xuong con 20.000$ th cong ty B lam vao tnh trang mat kha nang chi tra trong khi cong ty A th khong. Mat th hai la vi cung mot mc bien ong cua EBIT EPS cua cong ty se bien ong nhieu hn khi cong ty gia tang n (minh hoa tren) 5. Tac ong tong hp cua on bay hoat ong va on bay tai chnh DTL (Degree of Total Leverage) on bay hoat ong co tac dung khuyech ai EBIT khi doanh thu thay oi con on can n co tac dung khuyech ai s thay oi cua EPS khi EBIT thay oi. Nh vay, neu doanh nghiep co on bay hoat ong ln ket hp vi on bay tai chnh cao th di s tac ong tong hp cua hai on bay nay mot s thay oi rat nho cua doanh thu cung lam EPS thay oi rat ln. on bay tong hp la viec cong ty s dung ket hp ca chi ph hoat ong va chi ph tai tr co nh. KHi s dung ket hp, on bay hoat ong va on bay tai chnh co tac ong en EPS khi san lng hoac doanh thu thay oi qua hai bc. bc th nhat, doanh thu thay oi lam thay oi EBIT (tac ong cua on bay hoat ong). Bc th hai, EBIT thay oi lam thay oi EPS (tac ong on bay tai chnh). e o lng mc o bien ong cua EPS khi san lng tieu thu thay oi ngi ta dung ch tieu mc o on bay ton g hp (Degree of Total Leverage) Mc o on bay tong hp ( Degree of Total Leverage ) Mc o on bay tong hp the hien ty le % thay oi trong EPS khi doanh thu hoac san lng thay oi 1%. o nghieng on can tong hp (DTL) Ty le % thay oi EPS Ty le % thay oi doanh thu = Ty le % thay oi EPS Ty le % thay oi doanh thu Ty le % thay oi EBIT x Ty le % thay oi EPS Ty le % thay oi EBIT

Ty le % thay oi doanh thu

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DTL = DOL x DFL DTL = Q(P -V) Q(P- V) - F Iv PD/(1= Q(P -V) Q(P - V) - F x Q(P - V) - F Q(P- V) - F Iv PD/(1-T)

DTLQ =

Q(P -V) Q(P- V) - F Iv PD/(1-T)

Cong thc tnh DTL:

DTL EBIT = EBIT + FC EBIT - I - [ PD / (1 - t) ] Q (P - V) DTL SL Q = Q (P - V) - FC - I - [ PD / (1 - t) ] Tnh DFL cho cong ty A tai mc san lng 80.000 SP, hoac doanh thu 160.000, EBIT la 36.000 - nh ph la 60.000 USD - n gia ban 2 USD - Bien ph n v: 0,8 USD Vi Tong tai san la 200.000 $ va 3 phng an tai tr khac nhau: - Phng an 1: 75% n - Phng an 2: 50% n - Phng an 3: khong s dung n. Lai suat vay la 8%. Menh gia mot co phan la 5$. (trng hp 3 cong ty A, B, C) Phng an tai tr 1 DTL 36.000 36.000 + 60.000 = 4,00 = 36.000 12.000 - [ 0 / (1 - 0,5) ]

V du:

Phng an tai tr 2: DTL 36.000 36.000 + 60.000 = 3,44 = 36.000 8.000 - [ 0 / (1 - 0,5) ]

Phng an tai tr 3:

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DTL 36.000

36.000 + 60.000 = 2,67 = 36.000 0 - [ 0 / (1 - 0,5) ]

on bay tong hp va rui ro tong the cua doanh nghiep

Rui ro tong the cua doanh nghiep la s bien ong (khong chac chan) cua li nhuan mot co phan (EPS). Khi doanh thu thay oi, EPS cua cong ty bien ong nhieu hay t phu thuoc vao cau truc chi ph va cau truc nguon von cua cong ty. Neu cong ty co cau truc chi ph vi nh ph chiem ty le cao va cau truc von vi ty le n cao th EPS se bien ong vi ty le ln hn nhieu lan so vi doanh thu, the hien qua mc o on bay tong hp. Rui ro tong hp cua doanh nghiep bao gom rui ro kinh doanh va rui ro tai chnh, cau truc chi ph hay chnh sach au t cua cong ty anh hng en rui ro kinh doanh va chnh sach tai tr quyet nh rui ro tai chnh. Cong ty co the ket hp on bay hoat ong va on bay tai chnh vi cac mc o khac nhau e at c on bay tong hp va mc rui ro chung va phai (co the chu c). Rui ro kinh doanh cao co the c bu ap bang rui ro tai chnh thap va ngc lai. Co ngha la mot cong ty co rui ro kinh doanh cao th khong nen s dung n nhieu e tai tr cho tai san cua mnh. Mc o rui ro tong the ma cong ty chon lien quan en viec anh oi gia li nhuan va rui ro. S anh oi nay phai gang vi muc tieu toi a hoa gia tr cua co ong.

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BAI TAP
Bai 1:
Cong ty X co hai phng an hien ai hoa, moi phng an phat sinh chi ph nh sau:

n v tnh: trieu ong

Chi ph d toan Khau hao thiet b Khau hao nha xng Lng trc tiep Lng gian tiep Nguyen vat lieu trc tiep Thue tai san Chi ph bien oi khac Chi ph co nh khac Hien tai 570 320 695 710 500 40 80 60 PA I 700 400 520 770 420 50 80 80 PA II 875 520 300 865 300 70 80 110

Hien nay mc tieu thu la 85.000 san pham vi gia ban 40.000 ong a) Xac nh iem hoa von ca ba trng hp tren. b) Tnh mc o on bay hoat ong mc tieu thu hien tai cho ca ba trng hp. Hay giai thch y ngha cua ch tieu nay.

c) Vi mc san lng la 100.000 san pham th li nhuan ba phng an

la: Hien tai PA I PA II 800 800 760 Neu san lng tang len en mc 200.000 san pham th li nhuan trong 3 trng hp se la bao nhieu (tnh theo ch tieu DOL). d) Xep hang ba phng an theo mc rui ro tiem an. e) Phng an nao tot nhat? Tai sao? (nhan to nao tac ong en quyet nh)

Bai 2:

Cong ty Nelson co tong tai san la 14 tieu USD, hien tai ch s dung von co phan thng, thue suat thue TNDN la 25%. Giam oc tai chnh cong ty d kien EBIT cua nam ti ng vi 3 tnh huong kinh te nh sau: EBIT 4.200.000 USD 2.800.000 USD
Ths To Th Thanh Truc 20

Xac suat 0,2 0,5

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700.000 USD 0,3 Tnh ROE trung bnh, o lech chuan ROE cho nam ti vi cac ty le n ma cong ty se s dung nh sau: Ty le n 0% 10% 50% 60% Lai suat 9% 11% 14%

Bai 3:
Mot Cong ty mi thanh lap can so von e au t ban au la 10 ty ong. Ban lanh ao ang xem xet hai c cau von e la chon. Cach th nhat: khong s dung n ma ch phat hanh 10.000 co phieu thng vi gia 1 trieu ong mot co phieu. Cach th hai: vay 5 ty ong, lai suat n vay 10% mot nam va phat hanh 5.000 co phieu thng cung vi gia tr 1 trieu ong mot co phieu.

Thue suat thue TN la 40%, EBIT 2 ty mot nam. Cong ty nen la chon c cau von nao?

Bai 4:
Cong ty XYZ hien co c cau tai chnh nh sau: Tong n 3 ty ong vi lai suat 12% /nam va 800.000 co phieu thng ang lu hanh tren th trng. Thue suat thue thu nhap cua Cong ty la 40%. Cong ty ang can 4 ty ong e tai tr cho d an m rong san xuat kinh doanh. Cong ty ang xem xet 3 phng an tai tr nh sau: Vay n vi lai suat 14%. Phat hanh co phieu u ai vi ty le lai la 12 %. Phat hanh co phieu thng vi gia ban moi co phieu la 16.000.

a) Vi EBIT la 1,5 ty th EPS la bao nhieu cho moi phng an tai tr. b) Vi mc EBIT la bao nhieu th phng an vay n va phng an phat
hanh co phieu u ai co EPS cao hn phng an phat hanh co phan thng.

Bai 5:

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Cong ty ITC chuyen san xuat thiet b nghe nhn dung cho hanh khach tren may bay, moi bo thiet b c ban vi gia 3 trieu. Lng san pham tieu thu hang nam la 50.000 bo. Tong bien ph va nh ph trong ieu kien hien hanh lan lt la 120 ty ong va 18 ty ong. Cong ty hien co so n la 48 ty vi lai suat 10% va co 250.000 co phieu thng ang lu hanh, khong co co phieu u ai. Thue suat thue thu nhap la 35%. Cong ty ang xem xet au t vao he thong day chuyen mi vi von au t la 75 ty. San lng se khong tang nhng bien ph n v san pham giam 20%, ong thi tong nh ph len en 20 ty. e co lng von nay cong ty co the co c bang hai cach: th nhat la vay vi lai suat 12%, hoac cach th hai la ban 250.000 co phieu thng mi, vi gia 300.000 ong mot co phieu. Tnh: a. Xac nh san lng hoa von trong ieu kien san xuat hien hanh va trong ieu kien san xuat mi b. Tnh EPS trong: ieu kien san xuat hien hanh; ieu kien san xuat mi vi hnh thc vay; ieu kien san xuat mi vi hnh thc phat hanh co phieu thng. c. Tnh DOL, DFL, DCL trong ba ieu kien san xuat tren d. Tai mc san lng bao nhieu th EPS ba ieu kien san xuat tren la bang nhau.

Bai 6:
Cong ty Solomon ang co ke hoach huy ong them 270 trieu USD von mi e tai tr cho viec au t mi vao may moc thiet b va tang von lu ong vao au nam 07. hai cach huy ong von ang c xem xet: Huy ong von co phan mi bang cach ban vi gia 60 USD/co phan, Vay n vi lai suat 12%.

Bang can oi ke toan va bao cao thu nhap nam 2006 nh sau: BANG CAN OI KE TOAN (trieu USD) Tai san Nguon von Tai san lu ong 900,0 Phai tra ngi ban Phai tra khac Vay ngan han Tai san co nh 450,0 Tong n ngan han thuan N dai han (10%) Von co phan theo menh gia
Ths To Th Thanh Truc 22

172,5 225,0 255,0 652,5 300,0 60,0

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Tong tai san

(3$) Li nhuan gi lai 1.350,0 Tong nguon von BAO CAO THU NHAP (trieu USD) 2.475,0 2.227,5 247,5 15,0 30,0 202,5 81,0 121,5

337,5 1.350,0

Doanh thu Chi ph hoat ong Li nhuan trc lai vay va thue (EBIT) Lai vay ngan han Lai vay dai han Li nhuan trc thue Thue thu nhap (40%) Lai rong Phan phoi xac suat doanh thu d kien nh sau: Doanh thu (trieu USD) Xac suat 2.250 0,3 2.700 0,4 3.150 0,3 Gia s EBIT bang 10% doanh thu, n cu khong thay oi. -

Tnh EPS cho moi phng an tai tr ng vi moi mc doanh thu Tnh EPS trung bnh va o lech chuan EPS di cac phng an tai tr Phng an tai tr nao cong ty nen chon.

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