3.

1 Six Patterns of Failure Eventually assets and their component systems require maintenance and all fail in fairly characteristic ways. These curves are called critical wear curves. The curves show the conditional probability of failure against operating age for a variety of electrical act and mechanical items. Once the curve is selected locate the condition of the asset on the critical wear curve and act accordingly. 1. Random: The Probability of failure in any period is the same.

Probability of failure

TIME Figure 3.3 Random curve

Example: This random curve is common in electronics and in systems that become obsolete before they wear out. 2. Infant mortality: The probability of failure starts high then drops to an even or random level. This is a very common curve.

Start-up

USEFUL LIFE

Probability of failure

This part of the curve is random

TIME
Figure 3.4 Infant mortality

Example: Many electronics systems fail most frequently during the initial burn-in phase. After this initial period the probability of failure from period to period doesnt significantly change. Most complex systems of any type have high initial failure rates due to defects in materials or workmanship. Manufacturers recognize this phenomenon and write warranties that cover most of these failures. 1. Increasing: The probability of failure slowly increase over time or utilization. This effect is common for items that are subject to direct wear. The curve shows no dramatic increase in failure rates. The engineer or skilled tradesperson determines change-outs occur after 67% or 75% of life.

USEFUL LIFE Since this is continuous the point of transition to the next phase is arbitrary. Usually chosen when 67% or 75% of life is consumed.

BREAKDOWN PHASE

Probability of failure

TIME Figure 3.5 Increasing

Example: Consider the jaws of an aggregate crusher. These are massive blocks of manganese steel that get worn away by the crushing action on the rock. They wear in a predictable way and the probability of failure increase gradually throughout their life. Most items subject to wear demonstrate a curve of this type. 4. Increasing then stable: The probability of failure increases rapidly, and then levels off. This is not a common failure curve.

Start-up Probability of failure USEFUL LIFE

TIME Figure 3.6 Increasing then stable

Example: An electric heating element in a hot water heater. The probability of failure increases as the unit is turned on and then stabilizes to a random level.

5. Ending mortality: The probability of failure is random until the end of the life cycle then it increases rapidly. This is a common curve configuration.

USEFUL LIFE

BREAKDOWN

TIME Figure 3.7 Ending mortality curve

Example: This failure mode is characterized by mechanical systems that wear until they reach a certain point, after which they are at significant risk of failure. Failure modes related to corrosion usually proceed until the amount of metal left is marginal to support the structure. 1. Bathtub: This curve is the combination of the infant mortality and the ending mortality curves. Probability starts high, then levels off, then starts to rise again. This curve is extremely common and is the only curve described in many maintenance texts.

Number of Maintenance Incidents

Start-Up Phase

USEFUL LIFE

Breakdown Phase

Critical Wear TIME

Figure 3.8 Bathtub curve

Example: Trucks initially have high failure rates due to defects in labor and parts and intrinsic design flaws. Once these defects are eliminated, the vehicles fall into a flat section of the curve until one of the critical systems experiences critical wear. After critical wear occurs the whole reliability of the vehicle drops and the number of maintenance incidents increases until complete failure take place.