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LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

NI DUNG CHNH

1. Danh sch mu iu tra: im trung bnh mn LTXS v TK Ton ca


sinh vin H Thng Mi
2.

C s l thuyt
2.1

Bi ton c lng.

2.2

Bi ton Kim nh.

3.

p dng l thuyt gii bi ton thc t:


3.1

c lng im thi TB mn LTXS v TK Ton ca sinh vin H Thng


Mi vi tin cy 95%.

3.2

Kim nh gi thuyt cho rng trong mi ln thi t l sinh vin H Thng


Mi thi trt mn LTXS v TK Ton l nh hn 30%. Vi mc ngha 5%.

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

Danh sch mu iu tra: im thi trung bnh mn LTXS v TK


Ton ca sinh vin H Thng Mi ( lm trn n hng n v)
1.

Bng 1:
STT

H v tn

Lp

Khoa

im thi
mn
LTXS&TK
Ton

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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27
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31
32

on v Mong
L th hng Nga
Phng Ngn
Nguyn th Ngn
Nguyn th Ngn
Nguyn th minh Nguyt
Li th minh Nguyt
Phan tuyt Nhung
Trng tuyt Nhung
Trnh th Nhn
o hng Nhung
L hng Qun
Nguyn th Qunh
Nguyn thy Qunh
Trn Th Nhung
Nguyn Tun Linh
Trnh Vn Huy
Nguyn Thanh Huyn
Tun Khanh
Nguyn Khnh Duy
Trn Mnh Tng
Nguyn Th Thu
Nguyn c Thanh
Hong Trung Chnh
Nguyn Th Ngn
Nguyn Th Ngn
Trnh Th Nhn
Trn Th Nhung
Phm Th T H
Phm Hng Duyn
Triu Th Ngc Phng
Nguyn Thanh Phng

K43E2
K43E2
K43E4
K43E4
K43E2
K43E5
K43E4
K43E5
K43E5
K45E1
K43E5
K43E4
K43E3
K43E1
K43E4
K43E6
K43E2
K43E6
K43E2
K43E4
K43I4
K43E6
K43E3
K43E1
K43E4
K43E4
K43E3
K43E4
K43E4
K43E4
K43E4
K43E4

Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t

6.0
5.0
7.0
6.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
8.0
9.0
7.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
8.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
7.0
7.0
6.0
8.0
7.0
5.0
9.0
8.0
6.0
5.0
8.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
7.0

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

33
34
35
36
37
38

Trng Th Tuyt Nhung


V Hng Nhung
Nguyn Th Thm
Nguyn Th Hu
Trnh Th Phng
Dng V Qun

K43E5
K43E2
K43E4
K43E2
K43E3
K43E2

Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t

6.0
7.0
8.0
5.0
6.0
7.0

39
40
41
42
43
44
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46
47
48
49
50
51
52
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55
56
57
58
59
60
61
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65
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68
69
70
71
72

Phm Th Thm
Nguyn Th Thanh Tm
Nguyn Th The
Trn Th Thm
Nguyn Vn Thi
Trnh Th Thu Phng
Nguyn Thu Phng
Bi Th Xun
Nguyn Th Thu H
Trn Vn Hin
Trnh Vn Tng
Nguyn Vn Thng
L Xun c
Bi Tng Lm
L Hng Nhung
Phm Vn Mnh
Phm Bnh Minh
Phng nh Qun
Nguyn Vn Dng
V Th Bch Hu
Phan V Duy
Trn Trung Hiu
L Quc Bng
Phng Quang Bo
Ng Phng ng
Trn Th Dung
Nguyn Th Hin
Phm Mai Hoa
V Thi Ho
L Thu Hoi
V Thi Hc
Hong Th Hu
Phm Th Hng
Nguyn Th Huyn

K43E3
K43E1
K43E2
K43E5
K43E2
K43E4
K43E4
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44I3
K44C2
K44C4
K44C4
K44C4
K44C2
K44C2
K44C2
K44C1
K44C1
K44C2
K44C3
K44C2

Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng mi quc t
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Thng Mi in T
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi

5.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
6.0
4.5
5.0
7.0
7.0
5.0
6.5
8.0
3.0
7.5
4.0
6.0
8.0
5.5
5.5
4.0
3.5
7.0
7.5
5.0
6.5
6.0
9.0
4.0
8.5
7.0
3.5

LTXS v TK Ton
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108
109
110
111
112

Phm Tng Lm
Li M Lin
Ng Ngc Linh
Mai Thu Trang
Nguyn Ngc c
Nguyn Th Thanh Hoa
Trn Th Thu
Nguyn Trung Kin
Phm Th Ngha
Triu Th Kiu
u Vit Huy
L Th Ngc Bch
Nguyn Thj Qunh Anh
L Thy Dung
Cn Duy Quang
Trn Th Thu Hng
Nguyn Mnh Hng
Dng ng Hip
Trn Thi Bo
V Vit Hng
V Th Thu Trang
L Minh c
Hong Kiu Trang
Phm Th Thy Linh
Nguyn Th Thu H
Phm Vn Chung
Phng Th Kim Thy
Nguyn Th Bch Hng
Trn Thu Hng
Nguyn Hong Nam
Mai Duy Khnh
L Thu Tr
Hong Trn Lm
L Thanh Loan
Trn Th Ngn
Don Th Hi L
Trn Gia Cng
Nguyn Th Hng
Nguyn Th Ha
L Th Hng

Nhm: 10
K44C3
K44C3
K44C1
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
44S2
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K43H1
K45H2
K45H6
K45H3
K45H5
K45H3
K45H2
K45H1

Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
Marketing thng mi
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
H thng thng tin kinh t
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
4

7.5
6.0
4.0
8.0
7.0
9.0
7.5
6.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
6.0
7.5
6.5
5.5
7.5
9.0
4.5
7.0
4.0
6.5
6.0
4.5
4.5
9.0
2.5
9.0
6.5
6.5
5.5
6.0
7.5
7.0
6.0
8.0
8.5
7.0
8.5
7.0
6,5

LTXS v TK Ton
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120

Nhm: 10

Ngc Th Hoa
L Th Hng
Phm Th Hng Giang
Ng Hi Anh
Cao Th Kim Anh
Phan Nguyn Phng Anh
Phm Th Hoa
Ct Thanh Bnh

K45H1
K45H2
K45H1
K45H2
K45H1
K45H4
K45H1
K45H1

9.5
6.0
5.5
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.5
5,5

Ti chnh ngn hng


Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng
Ti chnh ngn hng

2. C s l thuyt
2.1 Bi ton c lng.
Gi s trn mt m ng LNN X c E(X) = v Var (X)=.
Trong cha bit,cn c lng.T m ng l sinh vin HTM ta ly ra mu kch thc
n:W=(X1,X2,,Xn).T mu ny ta tm c trung bnh mu v phng sai mu.
y l bi ton c lng k vng ton ca LNN gc X, cha bit quy lut phn phi ca X trn
m ng ,nhng bit kch thc mu
n >30 (nghin cu trn lng ln sinh vin HTM)
Khi kch thc mu n>30 LNN trung bnh mu c phn phi xp x chun vi cc tham s
E(X)= v Var(X)=
Gi X l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM.
Gi l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM trn mu.
Gi

l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM trn m ng.

Khi n >30 ta c th ly
Tnh

vi

t mu thu c :

Do U=

(*)

TH1: Khong tin cy i xng


Khi ta tm c phn v u sao cho:
2

P(

Thay U vo cng thc trn v bin i ta c:


5

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

P(

Hay P( Hay P(
t
Vy im trung bnh mn xc sut-thng k ca sv HTM nm trong khong (

TH2:Khong tin cy phi (1=0,2= ,dng c lng gi tr ti thiu ca )


Ta vn dng thng k trn (*).Vi tin cy 1- cho trc ta tm c phn v chun u sao cho:
P(U< u) =1-
Thay biu thc ca U vo cng thc trn ta c:
P(

u ) =1-

Hay P(

u <) =1-

Vy khong tin cy phi vi tin cy 1- ca l:


(

u ;

TH3:Khong tin cy phi (1= ,2=0,dng c lng gi tr ti a ca )


Vi tin cy 1- cho trc ta tm c phn v chun u sao cho:
P(-u < U) =1-
Thay biu thc U vo cng thc trn ta c :
P(-u <

)=1-

Bin i tng ng ta c:
P(<

u) =1-

Nh vy khong tin cy tri vi tin cy 1- ca l:


(-

u )

2.2 Bi ton Kim nh


Xt mt m ng c t l phn t mang du hiu A l P ,trong P cha bit .T mt c s no
ngi ta tm c P = P0 nhng ang nghi ngh v iu ny .Vi mc ngha

cn kim

nh gi thuyt : P = Po. Gi f l t l phn t mang du hiu A trn mu ngu nhin kch thc n .
Nh ta bit kkhi kch thc mu n ln th f c phn phi xp x chun :
f

N (p,)

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

XDTCK: U=

Trong

=1-

H o : p = po
Bi ton :
H1 : p < po
Phng php gii:
B1 : Gi f l t l phn t mang du hiu A trn mu ngu nhin kch thc n

Gi p l t l phn t mang du hiu A trn m ng

Vi kch thc mu n ln nn ta c :
f

N (P,

Vi mc

)
cn kim nh :

XDTKK :

U=

trong :
nu

ng th U

= 1N (0,1).

B2: Ta tm c phn v

sao cho :

P (U < u ) =
V

kh b nn theo nguyn l thuyt xc sut thng k nh ta c min bc b :


W = { utn : utn < u }

Trong

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

Vi

B3: Vi mu cho, ta c:

f= A
n

bit => . f, po , qo n bit ta tnh c

So snh vi u

TH1 : Nu utn W => c c s bc b

TH2 : Nu utn W => khng c c s bc b

Kt lun : - TH1 Vy vi mc ngha


-TH2 Vy vi mc ngha

, chp nhn

ta c th ni rng p <
ta khng th ni rng p <

3. p dng l thuyt gii bi ton thc t:


T bng danh sch ta thng k c s lng sinh vin vi mc im thi tng ng nh sau:
8

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

Bng 2:

im thi mn
LTXS v TK Ton
( xi )
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5

3.1

(ni )

n .x
i i

n .x 2
i i

1
2
2
8
4
12
7
24
7
22
7
12
3
8
1

2.5
6
7
32
18
60
38.5
144
45.5
154
52.5
96
25.5
72
9.5

6.25
18
24.5
128
81
300
211.75
864
295.75
1078
393.75
768
216.75
648
90.25

120

763

5124

S lng sv

c lng im thi TB mn LTXS v TK Ton ca sinh vin H Thng


Mi vi tin cy 95%.

Vi m ng l sinh vin HTM ta ly ra mt mu kch thc n= 120 sinh vin v iu tra


im thi TB mn LTXS v TK Ton, vi tin cy 95%. Nghin cu mu ny ta tm c trung
bnh mu v phng sai mu.
Xc nh bi ton:
y l bi ton c lng k vng ton ca LNN gc X, cha bit quy lut phn phi ca X trn
m ng ,nhng bit kch thc mu n >30 (nghin cu trn lng ln sinh vin HTM)
Khi kch thc mu n>30 LNN trung bnh mu c phn phi xp x chun vi cc tham s
E(X)= v Var(X)=

2
n

Gii:
9

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

= 0,95
Bit: n = 120,
Gi X l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM.
Gi l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM trn mu.
Gi

l im thi trung bnh mn l thuyt xc sut-thng k ca sinh vin HTM trn m ng.

V n=120>30, nn X ; N ( ;
XDTK:
U=

2
)
n

X
; N (0;1)
n

Vi tin cy = 1 , ta tm c gi tr phn v U , sao cho:


2

P( U < U ) =
2

Thay U, ta c:
X
P(
< U ) =
n
2
P ( U .
2

t:

= U .
2

< X < U .
)=
n
n
2

,
n

Ta c:
P ( < X < ) =
P( X < < X + ) =
Vi mu cho (bng 2) ta c:
1 15
1
x = . ni .xi =
.763 6,358
n i =1
120
V:
1 15
1
s =
( ni .xi 2 n.x 2 ) =
.(5124 120.6,3582 ) 1,515
n 1 i =1
120 1
n=120>30, nn ta ly s 1,515 (L im)
= 0.95 = 1
Li c:
= 0, 05 u = u0.025 = 1,96
V

1,515
= u .
= 1,96.
0, 271
n
120
2
Kt lun:
10

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

Vy vi tin cy 0.95%, ta c th ni rng: im thi TB mn LTXS v TK Ton ca sv H


Thng Mi nm trong khong (6,358-0,271 ; 6,358+0,271) hay ( 6,078 ; 6,629)
3.2.

Kim nh gi thuyt cho rng trong mi ln thi t l sinh vin H Thng


Mi thi trt mn LTXS v TK Ton l nh hn 30%. Vi mc ngha 5%.
( iu kin thi trt: im TB < 4 )

Xt m ng l sinh vin HTM c t l sinh vin thi trt mn LTXS v TK Ton l P


,trong P cha bit .T mt c s no ngi ta tm c P = P0 nhng ang nghi ngh v
iu ny .Vi mc ngha

cn kim nh gi thuyt : P = Po . Gi f l t l sinh vin thi trt

trn mu chn. Nh ta bit kkhi kch thc mu n ln th f c phn phi xp x chun .


Xc nh bi ton:
H o : p = po
y l bi ton Kim nh pha tri
H1 : p < po
T mu cho, ta tm c t l sv thi trt l trn mu l f. Khi n kh ln th f c phn phi xp x
pq
, vi q = 1 p .
chun vi cc tham s E ( X ) = p, vVar ( X ) =
n
Gii:
T bng 2 ta c: n = 120, nA = 5, po = 0,3, = 0.05
Gi f l t l sinh vin thi trt mn LTXS v TK Ton trn mu
Gi p l t l sinh vin thi trt mn LTXS v TK Ton trn m ng
H o : p = 0,3
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta i kim inh BT:
H1 : p < 0,3
V n=120 kh ln nn f ; N ( p,

pq
)
n

f po
XDTCK:
po qo nu Ho ng th U ; N (0;1)
n
Vi = 0, 01 , ta tm c gi tr phn v u , sao cho:
P (U < u ) =
V = 0, 05 kh b, nn theo nguyn l xc sut nh, ta c min bc b:
U=

W = { utn : utn < u }


Vi mu cho, ta c: f =

nA
5
1
=
=
n 120 24
11

LTXS v TK Ton

Nhm: 10

utn =

1 0,3
f po
= 24
= 6,18
po qo
0,3.0, 7
120
n

Vi = 0, 05 u = u0,05 = 1, 65
utn = 6,18 < u = 1, 68
Vy suy ra:

utn W : Bc b Ho, chp nhn H1

Kt lun:
Vy vi mc ngha 5% , ta c th ni rng: trong mi ln thi t l sv HTM thi trt mn LTXS
v TK Ton l nh hn 30%.

$$---The End---$$

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