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This is an extreme example of the ability methane has of wreaking havoc on our climate system. There is not nearly as much methane deposited in hydrates as there had been at that time. It is also believed that the release of the hydrates was caused by the seismic activity of volcanoes located in Siberia. Both of these point toward changes in climate not being as drastic as the Permian extinction. Any change caused by the release of large amounts of methane from the ESAS would be swift and have a large impact on the climate system. What is most worrisome about this latest development in the ESAS is that the Arctic is already warming quicker than the rest of the world. Some of this warming is unaccounted for. It has been acknowledged that there is a feedback mechanism that inherently speeds the loss of Arctic ice as it melts. As the ice melts and breaks apart it becomes surrounded by water which has a lower albedo (or reflectivity). Heat energy is more easily trapped by surfaces with low albedo, causing the water surrounding the ice to heat up faster, causing the ice to melt quicker. This vicious cycle does not account for all increases in warming however. Recently, NASA performed flyovers of the oceans spanning from one pole to the next. They flew over the Arctic five times and discover that methane levels from the Arctic ocean were .5% higher than background levels. (See my entry from April 24, 2012.) The higher methane levels were concentrated where there were leads in the ice, meaning the methane was coming from the ocean and not already present in the atmosphere. This discovery may account for the additional warming we are experiencing in the Arctic. The source of this methane has not been identified yet. This leaves us with the question, "What is happening in the Arctic climate?" Aside: It would seem to me that the increasing levels of methane are indicative of a positive feedback beginning in the Arctic. The ocean water that is coming in contact with the permafrost on the ESAS is 12-17 degrees Celsius warmer than the ice that had previously covered it. With the greater release of ESAS methane Arctic waters will become supersaturated with carbon, become warmer more easily, turn the ocean into a source, and aid the release of additional clathrates in Arctic. GHG emissions must be limited NOW in order to prevent this... References Kort, E., Wofsy, S., Daube, B., Diao, M., Elkins, J., Gao, R., et al. (2012). Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82 north. Nature Geoscience, 5, 318-321. "Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated." National Science Foundation - US National Science Foundation (NSF). Version 10-036 . N.p., 4 Mar. 2012. Web. 11 May 2012. . Romm, Joe. "Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting | ThinkProgress." ThinkProgress. N.p., 4 Mar. 2012. Web. 11
May 2012. . Shakhova, N.E, V.A Alekseev, and I.P Semiletov. "Predicted methane emission on the East Siberian Shelf." Doklady Earth Sciences 430.2 (2010): 190-193. Shakhova, N., Semiletov, I., Sergienko, V., Pipko, I., & Dudarev, O. (2012). On carbon transport and fate in the East Siberian Arctic landshelfatmosphere system. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 1-13. Shen, S, J.L Crowley, Y Wang, S.A Bowling, D.H Erwin, P.M Sadler, and C Cao. "Calibrating the end-Permian mass extinction." Science 334 (2011): 1367-1372.