PHN TCH CHNG KHON

1
I. CN BNG TH TRNG VN M HNH NH
GI TI SN VN (CAPM)
II. PHN TCH CHNG KHON
1. Mt s khi nim
2. Phn tch v la chn c phiu
2.1. S dng t s P/B
2.2. S dng t s P/E
2.3.M hnh chit khu dng c tc
Ph lc 1: Phn tch ti chnh


2
Ti sn ri ro: l ti sn c li sut khng chc
chn trong tng lai
Ti sn phi ri ro: l ti sn c li sut chc chn
trong tng lai (R
f
) lch chun ca t sut
sinh li = 0. Li sut ca tn phiu kho bc (T-bill)
c coi l li sut ca ti sn phi ri ro.
3
Xy dng mt danh mc u t gm 1 ti sn phi
ri ro v 1 danh mc cc ti sn ri ro i nm trn
ng bin hiu qu. T trng u t vo ti sn
phi ri ro w
f .

Tnh li sut k vng v ri ro ca danh mc ca
danh mc nh sau.
4
Li sut k vng ca danh mc



Ri ro ( lch chun) ca danh mc
5
) ( ) 1 ( ) (
i f f f P
R E w R w R E + =
f i if f f i f f f P
w w w w o o o o o ) 1 ( 2 ) 1 (
2 2 2 2 2
+ + =
i f P
w o o ) 1 ( =
(1)
(2)
lch chun ca danh mc kt hp gia ti sn
phi ri ro v ti sn ri ro l t l tuyn tnh ca
lch chun danh mc cc ti sn ri ro.
Hy chng minh rng, trong h trc ta li sut
k vng v ri ro ( lch chun), ti sn phi ri
ro f, danh mc i v danh mc P cng nm trn 1
ng thng.

6

7
C th t c bt k im no trn ng thng R
f

A bng vic u t mt t l danh mc w
f
vo ti sn
phi ri ro v phn cn li (1-w
f
) vo danh mc A.
Cc danh mc kt hp ny s c u th hn tt c
cc danh mc nm trn ng bin hiu qu bn
di im A. V cc danh mc kt hp nm trn
ng thng R
f
-A s c cng ri ro vi cc danh mc
nm trn ng bin hiu qu nhng li c li sut k
vng cao hn.

8
V t R
f
ng thng tip tuyn vi ng bin hiu qu
Markowitz, tip xc im M.
C th t c cc im nm trn ng R
f
-M bng cch
kt hp mt danh mc u t gm ti sn phi ri ro v danh
mc M trn ng bin hiu qu.
Cc im nm trn ng R
f
-M s c u th hn mi im
nm trn ng bin hiu qu. ng R
f
-M c gi l
ng th trng vn (CML Capital Market Line)

9
Mi im nm trn ng CML s c u th hn cc
im nm trn ng bin hiu qu. ng CML
c xem l ng bin hiu qu mi, nu trn th
trng lun tn ti mt ti sn phi ri ro.
Tt c cc nh u t s quyt nh u t ti tip
im ca ng CML vi hm hu dng ca bn
thn, tc l danh mc ca tt c nh u t u bao
gm danh mc M v ti sn phi ri ro.
10
S khc bit gia s la chn ca cc nh u t chnh l t trng
phn trm ca ti sn phi ri ro, iu ny ty thuc vo h s ngi
ri ro ca mi nh u t.
Nh u t c h s ngi ri ro cao, tc l nh u t khng thch
ri ro s u t nhiu vo cc ti sn phi ri ro, v danh mc m
nh u t la chn s nm u bn tri ca danh mc M.
Nh u t c h s ngi ri ro thp, l nhng ngi s i vay tin
vi li sut phi ri ro u t vo danh mc M. Nh vy danh mc
ca nh u t thch ri ro ny s nm bn phi ca im M trn
ng CML, tc l c li sut cao v c ri ro cao

11
Danh mc M l danh mc c mi nh u t
la chn nn n c coi l danh mc th trng,
bao gm tt c cc ti sn ri ro ca th trng.
Danh mc M bao gm cc c phn thng ca
M, cc c phiu khng phi l ca M, cc tri
phiu ca M v khng phi ca M, quyn chn,
tranh ngh thut, bt ng sn, c,...

12
Thc o ri ro ca mt ti sn ring l chnh l
hip phng sai ca ti sn vi danh mc th
trng M (Cov
i,M
)
Phng trnh ng ri ro li sut c th c
vit l :


13
) , (
) (
) (
2
M i Cov
R R E
R R E
M
f M
f i
o

+ =
) ) ( (
2
,
f M
M
M i
f
R R E
Cov
R +
o

14
nh ngha:


Phng trnh ng th trng chng khon trn
y c th vit li nh sau:



M hnh nh gi ti sn vn (Capital Asset Pricing
Model CAPM)


15
2
) , (
M
i
M i Cov
o
| =
) ) ( ( ) (
f M i f i
R R E R R E + = |

16
Beta c xem l thc o chun ca ri ro h
thng, v n thit lp quan h gia tch sai ca ti
sn ri ro i vi danh mc th trng v phng sai
ca danh mc th trng
Danh mc th trng c beta bng 1
1 c phiu c beta>1 c ngha l c phiu ny c
mc ri ro ln hn mc bnh qun ca th trng
17
ngha
trng thi cn bng, tt c cc chng khon v cc danh
mc u nm trn ng SML tng ng vi mi mc
ri ro nht nh s c mt mc li sut k vng yu cu
nht nh.
Chng khon no c li sut k vng nm trn ng
SML s c xem l b nh gi thp
Chng khon no nm c li sut k vng nm di c
SML s c xem l b nh gi cao
18
VD:
R
f
=0,06, E(R
M
)=0,12, beta ca chng khon A c
tnh l 0,7. Tng ng vi mc ri ro beta = 0,7,
chng ta yu cu li sut k vng vi mi c phiu A
l 0,102.
Gi s trn thc t, li sut k vng ca ck A tnh
c l 0,12 CK A c li sut k vng ln hn li
sut yu cu CK A c xem l b nh gi thp.

19
VD:
R
f
=0,07, E(R
M
)=0,11, c phiu A c li sut k vng l
0,14, v beta bng 2 C u t vo c phiu A
khng?
Tr li: li sut k vng yu cu ca c phiu A:
0,07+2(0,11-0,07)=0,15 A nm di ng SML
A b nh gi cao Khng nn u t
20
VD:
R
f
=0,08, E(R
M
)=0,125, c phiu B c beta=0,5, li
sut k vng l 0,11 c u t vo B hay khng?
Tr li: li sut k vng yu cu ca c phiu B:
0,08+0,5x(0,125-0,08)=0,1025 C phiu B nm
di ng SML C phiu B b nh gi thp
Nn u t
21
1. Mt s khi nim:
Mnh gi
Th gi
Th gi
Gi tr thc cu c phiu
2. Phn tch v la chn c phiu
S dng t s P/B
S dng t s P/E
M hnh chit khu dng c tc
22
L gi tr ghi trn giy chng nhn c phiu, c
nh theo thi gian. Mnh gi c phiu ch c gi
tr danh ngha.
Mnh gi c phiu = Vn iu l ca cng ty c
phn/ s c phn ng k lu hnh
Ti VN, cc cp nim yt c mnh gi 10.000
L gi c phiu ghi trn s sch k ton ca cng ty,
phn nh tnh trng vn c phn ca cng ty mt
thi im nht nh.
Th gi c thay i theo thi gian nhng thay i vi
tc chm, 1 nm c tnh li 1 ln
L thc o chnh xc mc giu hay ngho i ca
mt cng ty c phn hiu theo ngha k ton.
BPS = Vn ch s hu / s c phiu ang lu hnh
Vn ch s hu:
Vn iu l
Vn thng d
Qu pht trin (li nhun gi li)
V d: S dng Bng cn i k ton cui nm ca
VNM, tnh BPS ca VNM?
VD: - Nm 2003 cng ty A mi thnh lp vi vn iu l
30 t ng, s c phn ng k pht hnh l 3 triu,
mnh gi 1 c phn l 10.000 .
- Nm 2006, cng ty tin hnh tng vn iu l ln 40
t ng, tc l pht hnh thm 1 triu c phiu. Cng
ty pht hnh vi gi 25.000 . Qu tch ly ca cng ty
trong qu trnh hot ng l 10 t ng. Tnh BPS ?
Vn iu l: 40 t
Vn thng d (25000 10000) x 1 triu c phiu =
15 t ng
Qu tch ly: 10 t
Vn CSH : 65 t
S cp: 4 triu
BPS=60 t/4 triu =16250
Th gi c phiu l gi c phiu trn th trng ti mt
thi im no .
Ty theo quan h cung cu m th gi c th cao hn
hoc thp hn hoc bng gi tr thc ca n. Quan h
cung cu c phiu li ph thuc vo cc nhn t nh
kinh t, chnh tr, x hi, tnh hnh hot ng ca cng
ty, v c tm l ca nh u t. Th gi c phiu l
mt i lng lun lun bin i.
Chng ta vn thng nghe c phiu A c gi qu cao, c phiu
B c gi qu thp, vy y ngi ta so snh s cao thp ca
gi c phiu vi ci g ? Cu tr li y l gi tr thc ca
c phiu.
Khi gi c phiu c cho l qu gi tr thc (over valued) th
nh u t c khuyn l nn bn c phiu i, cn khi gi c
phiu c cho l di gi tr thc (under valued) th nh u t
c khuyn l nn mua vo, nh chng ta vn nghe cc c
quan qun l nh nc vn cnh bo nh u t.
T s P/B: l t l gia th gi c phiu v th gi
c phiu, cho bit gi chng khon bnh qun trn
th trng cho mt n v gi tr ti sn (th gi)
P/B = MPS/BPS
Gi c phiu = P/B * BPS
VD : C phiu TDH c BPS l 40000 VND. SJS l
c phiu cng ngnh c h s P/B =3,79. Vy gi
c phiu TDH c th l : 40000*3,79 = 151000
VND

Phng php ny ch ra mc gi c phiu hin ti
da trn tr gi ti sn ca doanh nghip (vn
CSH) c tch ly trong qu kh. Nhc
im
Trong iu kin bnh thng, P/B thng ln hn
2
T s P/E (price earning ratio): l t l gia th gi
c phiu vi thu nhp trn mi c phiu, cho bit
gi bnh qun th trng cho mi n v thu nhp
m c phiu mang li.
P/E = MPS/ EPS
Gi c phiu = P/E * EPS
Lu :
EPS (earning per share): l thu nhp trn mi c
phiu
EPS = EAT/ s c phiu lu hnh
EAT : li nhun sau thu
VD : C phiu SJS c EPS l 16000 VND. Hay
ni 1 cc khc, nm va qua SJS mang li 16000
li nhun cho mi c phiu ca c ng. P/E
ca th trng ni chung l 15 Gi c phiu
SJS c th l : 16000*15 = 240.000

T s P/E l mt trong nhng ch s phn tch quan
trng trong quyt nh u t chng khon ca nh u
t.
Phng php ny ch mc gi c phiu hin ti theo
quan im li nhun (thu nhp) ca c phiu.
P/E thng c gi tr khong 19-21
Nhc im: EPS l s liu qu kh, m nh t thng
k vng vo tng lai
M hnh chit khu c tc (The discounted
dividend model): gi (gi tr thc RPS) ca c
phiu chnh l tng hin gi ca dng c tc
nhn c trong tng lai vi li sut chit khu
l t sut vn ha th trng.
Li sut k vng khi u t vo c phiu:



P
0
:gi hin ti
P
1
l gi c phiu k vng sau mt nm
DIV
1
l mc c tc k vng c chia trong khong thi
gian t 0 n 1

0
0 1 1
P
P P DIV
r
+
=
r l li sut k vng hay li sut yu cu ca cc
nh u t. Trong iu kin cn bng ca th
trng vn, tt c cc c phiu c cng mc
ri ro nh nhau s c r ging nhau v ngi ta gi
l t l vn ha th trng (market capitalization
rate) hoc t l chit khu iu chnh ri ro (risk
adjusted discounted rate).
C th xc nh P
0
, nu bit trc P
1
, DIV
1
, v r.
VD: C phiu SJS c d bo sau 1 nm s c gi l
300.000 , c tc trong nm ti d tnh l 3000 . Li
sut m cc nh u t yu cu i vi nhng c phiu
c mc ri ro nh SJS l 30% . Mc gi hin ti m
nh u t sn sng mua c phiu SJS l : 3000 :1,3
+300000 :1,3 =233.000 .
Xc nh P
0
:




Lm sao xc nh P
1

r
P
r
DIV
P
+
+
+
=
1 1
1 1
0
Tng t



C th d bo P
1
da trn P
2
, DIV
2
v li sut
yu cu r.

r
P
r
DIV
P
+
+
+
=
1 1
2 2
1
C th xc nh P
0
da trn P
2
, DIV
1
, DIV
2
v r:

2
2
2
2 1
0
) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1 r
P
r
DIV
r
DIV
P
+
+
+
+
+
=
Tng t sau H nm:



C phiu khng c thi hn H l v cng, s
hng cui cng ca tng trn s tin ti 0.

H
H
H
H
r
P
r
DIV
r
DIV
r
DIV
P
) 1 ( ) 1 (
....
) 1 ( 1
2
2 1
0
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
=
Hin gi P
0
c tnh nh sau:




Gi ca c phiu ti thi im hin ti l tng
hin gi ca dng c tc k vng s nhn c
trong tng lai vi t l chit khu l t sut vn
ha th trng.

=
+
=
1
0
) 1 (
t
t
t
r
DIV
P
Gi nh: c tc k vng qua cc nm khng tng,
lun c nh bng DIV
Hin gi c phiu:


Hay:

t
t
r
DIV
P
) 1 (
1
0
+
=

=
r
DIV
P =
0
p dng khi nh gi c phiu u i.
VD: Gi s c phiu SJS c c tc c d bo
l khng i bng 5000 /nm, li sut yu cu
ca nh u t i vi c phiu cng ty l 15% .
Hy tnh gi c phiu hin ti m nh u t chp
nhn mua: 5000 :0.15 = 33000
Gi nh: c tc tng u qua cc nm vi tc g
DIV
2
=DIV
1
(1+g)
DIV
3
=DIV
2
(1+g)=DIV
1
(1+g)
2
DIV
4
=DIV
3
(1+g)==DIV
1
(1+g)
3
DIV
i
=DIV
1
(1+g)
i-1
Hin gi c phiu:



Gi s r>g

+
+
=
1
1
1
0
) 1 (
) 1 (
t
t
t
r
g DIV
P
g r
g DIV
g r
DIV
P

+
=

=
) 1 (
0 1
0
VD: C phiu SJS c c tc hin ti l 5000 , gi
s tc tng trng c tc l n nh mc
10% nm, li sut yu cu ca nh u t i vi
c phiu ny l 15%/nm. Hy xc nh gi ca c
phiu hin ti m nh u t chp nhn mua ?
c tnh DIV: da trn s liu v c tc trong qu kh,
chnh sch phn chia c tc trong tng lai, c tnh thu
nhp nm sau ca doanh nghip.
c tnh g: vic c tnh t l tng trng c tc ca cng
ty phi da trn nh gi tim nng pht trin ca cng ty
v lu di, v tc tng trng g c gi nh l khng
i trong sut thi gian hot ng, cho nn ta c th ly g
l mc tng trng bnh qun trong lu di ca cng ty.
Gi nh, tc tng trng c tc bng vi tc
tng trng thu nhp ca cng ty, g c th c tnh
nh sau:
g = ROE x b
b : t l li nhun c gi li ti u t. b = 1
t l chia c tc = 1 DIV1/EPS1
ROE (return on equity) l t sut sinh li trn vn ch
s hu

ROE = Net Income/ vn ch s hu
ROE = EPS /BPS
VD: T l chia c tc ca cng ty l 25%. H s
hon vn CSH (ROE) l 15%. Hy d bo g?
VD: Cng ty X c t l n so vi ti sn l 0,4. Tng
n l 200.000.000 . Nu tng li rng sau thu l
30.000.000 . Hy tnh ROE?

c tnh r : c tnh li sut yu cu cn da trn
mc ri ro ca cng ty pht hnh. Nu cng ty c
ri ro cng cao th nh u t yu cu mt mc li
sut cng cao tng ng. Cng thc ph bin c
p dng chnh l m hnh CAPM .
Thng thng cc cng ty thng tng trng
qua nhiu giai on.
Giai on siu tng trng (super normal growth)
vi tc gs/nm trong n nm u
Giai on tng trng n nh vi tc gl/nm
trong khong thi gian cn li



n
l
l
n
s
n
t
t
t
s
r g r
g g DIV
r
g DIV
P
) 1 )( (
) 1 ( ) 1 (
) 1 (
) 1 (
0
1
0
0
+
+ +
+
+
+
=

=
n
n
n
n
r
P
r
DIV
r
DIV
r
DIV
P
) 1 ( ) 1 (
...
) 1 ( 1
2
2 1
0
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
=
n
l
n
n
t
t
t
s
r g r
DIV
r
g DIV
) 1 )( ( ) 1 (
) 1 (
1
1
0
+
+
+
+
=
+
=

VD: SJS c mc tng trng c tc trong 3 nm u l

25%/nm, nhng nm tip theo t l tng trng c tc
n nh mc 10%/nm. C tc trong ln tr gn nht
l 5000 , li sut yu cu ca nh u t i vi c
phiu ny l 12%. Hy xc nh gi c phiu m nh
u t chp nhn mua vo thi im hin nay. Xc
nh gi c phiu vo nm th ba.
Tr li:
) 10 , 0 12 , 0 (
1 , 1 25 , 1 5000
3
4
3

=
l
g r
DIV
P
3
3
3
3
2
2
0
12 , 1 ) 10 , 0 12 , 0 (
1 , 1 25 , 1 5000
12 , 1
25 , 1 5000
12 , 1
25 , 1 5000
12 , 1
25 , 1 5000


+

= P
1. Tnh lch chun ca mt danh mc u t
ca 2 ti sn c phng sai l 30% v 50% ti t
trng u t tng ng l 70% vo ti sn 1 v
phn cn li vo ti sn 2. H s tng quan l
0.8.
2. Tnh li sut ca mt danh mc u t gia ti
sn khng c ri ro c li sut l 7% nm v ti
sn c ri ro c li sut l 10% nm. lch
chun ca ti sn c ri ro l 20% v lch
chun ca danh mc u t l 15% .

59
3. C phiu VNM c mc c tc vo nm ti l 3000 , tc tng
trng c tc 10%/nm, li sut yu cu l 12%/nm. Hy xc
nh gi cao nht m nh u t chp nhn mua.
4. Cng ty Vinamilk va tr c tc 3000 /c phiu, tc tng
trng c tc 10%/nm, li sut yu cu l 12%/nm. Hy xc
nh gi cao nht m nh u t chp nhn mua.
5. Gi c phiu hin nay ca VNM l 108.000 , c tc hin ti l
3000 , tc tng trng c tc 8% nm, li sut yu cu i
vi c phiu ny l bao nhiu?

60
6. Cng ty REE c li sut yu cu l 16% v c c tc hin ti l 3000 ,
nu gi hin ti ca c phiu ny c xc nh l 55000 . Gi s t
l tng trng c tc l u th t l tng trng c tc l bao nhiu?
7. Mt cng ty c phn c tng c phiu pht hnh l 1 triu c phiu, d
kin thu nhp l 1 triu USD/nm, gi li 50% ti u t, thu nhp
trn vn u t l 0,16 v s duy tr trong nhng nm tip theo. C
phiu ang c bn vi gi 10 USD/c phiu. Hy tnh li sut yu
cu ca nh u t i vi c phiu ny.
8. Mt cng ty c phn c tng ti sn 200 t ng, vn vay l 150 t
ng, li thun nm nay ca cng ty l 15 t ng. Tng c tc d
kin l 3 t ng. Hy d bo mc tng trng c tc trong tng lai?
61
9. C phiu SJS c mc chi tr c tc 3000 /CP vo cui
nm nay. Mc chi tr c tc d kin tng trng 50%/nm
trong 3 nm tip theo, v n nh mc 10% nhng nm
k tip. Hy nh gi c phiu B ti thi im hin nay bit
li sut yu cu l 12%/nm.
10. Tnh P/E ca c phiu A, bit t l tr c tc l 30%, t l
li nhun sau thu trn vn ch s hu (ROE) l 20%. Li
sut chit khu 16%
11. T l tng trng c tc ca 1 cng ty l 10% v c th
duy tr nh vy trong tng lai. Li sut chit khu l 15%.
P/E hin nay ca cng ty l 5,5. Hy d bo t l chi tr c
tc ca cng ty.

62
12. Ngn hng ca bn ang cn nhc u t vo mt c phiu
c t sut k vng l 11%. Li sut tn phiu kho bc l 8%. Li
sut u t bnh qun ca th trng c phiu l 12.5%. C
phiu ang xem xt c h s ri ro beta ch bng ca bnh
qun th trng. Bn khuyn lnh o nn u t vo c phiu
hay khng?
13. T l chia c tc ca mt cng ty c phn l 25%. ROE l
15%. Hy d bo v tc tng trng c tc ca cng ty trn.
14. Mt c phiu c EPS d tnh bng 15000 VND vo nm ti.
T l c tc 30%. ROE =15%. Chi ph vn (li sut chit khu)
bng 13%. Hy nh gi c phiu vo nm k tip.

63
Ph lc 1: Phn tch ti chnh
1. T l li nhun trn VCSH (Return on
Equity)
2. S phn tch ch s ti chnh
3. Chng minh cng thc v tc tng
trng g
64
1. T l li nhun trn VCSH (ROE)
Return on equity (ROE) = Net income/
shareholders equity
Li nhun trn vn ch s hu = li nhun rng/
vn ch s hu

65
Ba nhn t cu thnh ROE



ROE = Profit margin X Asset turnover X Financial
leverage
= ROA x Financial leverage
ROE= T l li rng trn doanh thu X H s vng
quay tng ti sn X n by ti chnh


66
equity s r' Shareholde
Assets
Assets
Sales
Sales
income Net
ROE =
Profit Margin

T l li nhun trn tng ti sn (Return on
Assets (ROA))

ROA = Profit margin X Asset turnover = Net
income/ Assets

Gross Margin (T l li nhun bin)
Gross Margin = Gross Profit / Sales
Gross profit = Net Sales cost of goods
sales
Li nhun gp = Doanh thu Gi vn hng
bn


67
H s vng quay tng ti sn (Asset Turnover)
Asset Turnover = Sales / Assets

T l s vng quay hng tn kho (Inventory
Turnover)
Ngy thu tin bnh qun (The Collection Period)
(days sales Outstanding ) (DSO)
S ngy tin mt (Days Sales in Cash)
Fixed Asset turnover




68
T l s vng quay hng tn kho (Inventory
Turnover)
69
inventory Ending
Sales
Turnover Inventory =
inventory Ending
sold goods of Cost
Turnover Inventory =
Ngy thu tin bnh qun (The Collection
Period) (days sales Outstanding ) (DSO)

70
Sales/365
receivable Accounts
day per sales Credit
receivable Accounts
Period Collection
=
=
S ngy tin mt (Days Sales in Cash)

= Tin mt, CK ngn hn / doanh thu ngy
71
day per Sales
securities and Cash
Cash in Sales Days' =
T s vng quay ti sn c nh (Fixed
Asset turnover)
= Doanh thu / TSC (sau khi tr khu hao)

72
equipment and plant, property, Net
Sales
over Asset turn Fixed =
n by ti chnh
Financial Leverage = Assets / Equity
Ngy phi tr bnh qun (Payables Period)
T l n trn tng ti sn (Debt -to Asset ratio)
T s thanh ton li vay (Times interest earned)
T s kh nng tr n (Times burden covered)
T s thanh khon hin hnh (Current ratio)
T s thanh ton nhanh (Acid Test)



73
Ngy phi tr bnh qun (Payables Period)





T l n trn tng ti sn (Debt -to Asset
ratio)


74
day per purchase Credit
Payable Accounts
Period Payables =
assets Total
s liabilitie Total
ratio assets - to - Debt =
T s thanh ton li vay (Times interest earned)



T s kh nng tr n (Times burden covered)

75
expense Interest
EBIT
earned interest Times =
|
.
|

\
|

+
=
rate Tax 1
payment Principal
Interest
EBIT
covered burden Times
T s thanh khon hin hnh (Current ratio)



T s thanh ton nhanh (Acid Test)

76
s liabilitie Current
assets Current
ratio Current =
s liabilitie Current
Inventory - assets Current
test Acid =
2. S phn tch

77
RETURN ON EQUITY
Profit Margin Asset Turnover Financial
leverage
- Gross margin
- Tax rate
- Days sales in cash
- Collection period
- Inventory turnover
- Fixed asset turnover
- Payables period
- Debt to assets
- Times-interest-
earned
- Times-debt-
covered
- Current ratio
- Acid test
3. Tc tng trng bn vng g
Cc nh qun tr khng th hoc khng mun
pht hnh thm c phiu mi tc l khng
mun tng vn ch s hu.

- Cng ty mun duy tr mt cu trc ti chnh
(n by ti chnh) v mt chnh sch c tc
nht nh.
Tng trng doanh thu i hi phi gia tng cc khan
mc TS, v gia tng ngun vn
Vay mi
Tng VCSH
Gia tng ti sn
nhm p ng
tng doanh thu
Ti sn
Ngun vn
Khi cng ty mun tng doanh thu, cng ty cn
phi gia tng cc khon mc ti sn nh hng tn
kho, cc khon phi thu, tin mt, ti sn c nh.
Nu cng ty khng pht hnh c phiu mi, cng
ty ch c th tng ngun vn bng li nhun gi
li v vn vay.
Tm t l tng trng gii hn ca doanh thu?
Khi vn ch s hu tng, n vay c th tng theo t l
tng ng nn khng lm thay i cu trc ngun vn
T l tng ca vn ch s hu quyt nh t l tng ca
n vay v quyt nh t l tng ca tng ti sn.
. T l tng ca vn CSH chnh l gii hn t l tng ca
doanh thu.
Phng trnh tng trng bn vng:



R= (1-dividend payout ratio), bop = beginning of-period




bop bop
*
Equity
Earnings
Equity
equity in Change
= =
R
g