KInh t v m I

Trng i hc ngoi thng

Khoa kinh t & Kinh Doanh quc t
Th.S Hong Xun
Bnh
Bi 1: Khi qut v Kinh t hc V m
I. S ra i v pht trin ca kinh t hc
V m:
II. i tng, v phng php nghin cu:
1. i tng:
Y, g, u, inflation, budget, BP,
2. Phng php nghin cu:
- Tru tng ho, cn bng tng qut (cn
bng ng thi all market (Walras), ton
hc
III. H thng kinh t V m:
1. u vo:
+ Ngoi sinh: Thi tit, chnh tr,
dn s, cng ngh + pht minh khoa
hc
+Ni sinh: tc ng trc tip: CSTK,
CSTT, CS Y, CS kinh t i ngoi
2. Hp en: AS+AD
*AD: tng khi lng hng ho, dv m cc
tc nhn trong nn kt c kh nng v
sn sng mua trong 1 thi k nht nh.
Cc yu t khc khng i. (P, Y..)
*AS:Tng khi lng hh, dv m cc tc nhn
trong nn kt c khng nng v sn sng
cung trong 1 thi gian nht nh. Yt
khc k i
*Nhn t nh hng: , P, Y, E..
* Nhn t nh hng: P,CFSX, Y*
Y*: l s/lng ti a m nn kt c th SX
c trong K ton dng nhn cng, k
lft
Ton dng nhn cng=D/s-(tr
em+gi) - tn tt -(hs+sv) - ni tr-ngi
k mun lv

u ra gm nhng bin s ch kt qu
hot ng ca mt nn kinh t trong mt
thi k nht nh thng l mt nm, l
sn lng, vic lm, mc gi chung, t l
lm pht, li sut, tnh trng ngn sch
nh nc, cn cn thng mi, cn cn thanh
ton quc t.

3. u ra
IV. Mc tiu ca kinh t hc v m:
*Khi qut: n nh, tng trng, cng bng
XH
*C th: Q,V/lm, n inh P, l/ft, KTN
(XNK), phn phi cng bng(m bo thu
nhp)
*Cng c: CSTK, CSTT,CS thu nhp, CS
KTN
Bi 2: Tng sn phm quc dn & ph-
ng php xc nh
I. Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP-Gross
domestic products)
L gi tr bng tin ca tng hh v dv
cui cng c SX ra trong phm vi lnh th
1 quc gia trong 1 TG nht nh (thng 1
nm) bt k NSX thuc quc tch no.
Hng ho cui cng: k b bn li trong
thi k, SX ng thi, bn trn th trng
Hng ho trung gian:nguyn liu cho SX
1. Khi nim:
2.C s :
Kinh t ng gin n: Households
+firms
Gi nh: bn ht, thanh ton ht, h mua
ht tin
H gia nh

Hng SX

CF ca hng
Thu nhp h gia nh
Input ca SX
H,ho,dv cui cng
Doanh thu ca hng
Chi tiu cho h.ho dv cui cng
Vng lun chuyn GDP trong nn
kinh t
Th trng hng ha v
dch v
Th trng cc yu t
sn xut
Cc hng
kinh doanh
H gia nh
u vo SX
Lao ng, t
ai, vn, trnh
qun l
Bn HH v DV
cui cng
Mua HH v DV
cui cng

Tin lng, tin thu
v li nhun
CPSX (= GDP)
Thu nhp ca h
gia nh (= GDP)
Doanh thu
(= GDP)
Chi tiu
(= GDP)
+Vng bn trong: khp kn ca cc yu
t vt cht mang tnh vt th
+Vng bn ngoi: di chuyn ca tin
+ 3 cch xc nh GDP (vng ngoi); Chi
tiu, chi ph, gi tr gia tng
3. Phng php xc nh:
*Phng php chi tiu:
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
*Trong :

C (Consumption): chi tiu ca cc h gia
inh
I(Investment): chi tiu ca cc hng
G (Government Expenditure): chi tiu mua
hng ho v d ch v ca CP
X (Export): xut khu
M (Import): nhp khu
NX = X M: xut khu rng (Net Export).

-SP cc h t SX t tiu dng, ko mua bn,
k tnh
-I:tng I bao gm c khu hao,khc net
I=I-D
-Khon u t lm tng TSC (my mc),
u t c phiu, cho vay k tnh
-Tr cp XH k tnh, kim ngch XNK k
phi hng ho dch v cui cng.
*Phng php chi ph:
GDP = w + r + i + H + D +Te
W: tin cng, r tin thu TSC, i: thu vn,
H li nhun, D: khu hao, Te: thu gin thu
3. Phng php gi tr gia tng:
GTGT = Tng DT - Tng CF NVL
GDP = GTGT cc ngnh
=> GDP = VAT. 1/thu sut
GTGT
V d:
C c cng on SX Doanh thu
(1000)
Chi phNVL
(1000)
GTGT
(1000)
1. Bng 20 0 20
2. S i 30 20 10
3. Vi 45 30 15
4. Qun o 80 45 35
Tng cng 175 95 80
Nn kinh t c 1000 cng ty may mc:
Tng GTGT = 1000 x 80 = 80 000
(1000)
Vy GDP = 80 000 (1000)

*V d v sn xut qun o mt x
nghip may nh sau:
II.Tng sn phm quc dn (GNP:
Gross national products)
1. Khi nim:
Tng gi tr bng tin ca ton b
hho,dv cui cng do cng dn ca mt
nc SX ra trong 1 TG nht nh ( thg 1
nm), bt k vic SX c tin hnh
u.
2. Phng php xc nh:
GNP = GDP + Tn
Tn: thu nhp rng TS t nc ngoi = VNNN
-NNVN
C 3 trng hp:

+ GNP > GDP (T
n
>0): nn kinh t trong n-
c c anh hng n nn kinh t cc nc
khc.

+ GNP < GDP (T
n
<0): nn kinh t trong nc
chu anh hng ca nn kinh t cc nc
khc.
+ GNP = GDP (T
n
=0): cha c kt lun.

3. GNP thc t v GNP danh
ngha

GNP danh ngha (nominal GNP - GNP
n
)
o lng tng GNP SX ra trong mt thi
k nht nh theo gi hin hnh, tc l
gi ca thi k (gi l k nghin cu).
1
n
t t
n i i
i
GNP P Q
=
=

Trong :
P
t
i
: Gi ca cc hng ha v dch v k
nghin cu
Q
t
i
: S lng ca cc hng ha v dch v
k nghin cu
GNP thc t (real GNP - GNP
r
) o lng
tng san phm quc dn SX ra trong
mt thi k nht nh theo gi c nh
mt thi k c ly lm gc (gi l k
gc).

0
1
n
t
r i i
i
GNP P Q
=
=

Trong :
P
0
i
: Gi ca ca cc hng ha v dch v
k gc
Q
t-1
i
: S lng ca cc hng ha v dch v
k nghin cu
Ta cng c khi nim GDP danh ngha
(GDP
n
) v GDP thc t (GDP
r
).

T s gia GDP danh ngha v GDP thc
t l ch s gi ca, cn gi l ch s
iu chnh GDP hay ch s giam pht
GDP, k hiu D (Deflator)
100%
n
r
GDP
D
GDP
=
GDP thc t khng chu nh hng ca s
bin ng gi ca nn l mt ch tiu nh gi
phc li kinh t tt hn GDP danh ngha. Tng
trng ca nn kinh t tc l ni n s tng
trng ca GDP thc t t thi k ny sang thi
k khc.
Tn
C
I
G
NX
GNP
D
NNP
Te
NI
(Y)
Td-TR
Yd
III. Cc ch s kinh t khc:
NNP= GNP-D ; Y=NI=NNP-Te=GNP-D-
Te
Yd = NI - (Td-TR) = (C+S)
D-khu hao TSC
NNP-Tng SP quc
dn rng
NI-thu nhp quoc
dn
Yd-thu nhp kh
dng
TR (transfer)- tr cp
Td: thu trc thu
4. Phc li kinh t rng NEW (Net Economic
Welfare)
GDP, GNP b st hng ha, dch v t
cung t cp, khng a ra th trng v
khng bo co; hot ng kinh t phi php
hoc hp php nhng khng c bo co
nhm trn thu, nhim mi trng..
khng vo GNP,
NEW = GNP + V1 -V2
V
1
bao gm:
+ Gi tr ca thi gian ngh ngi:
+ Gi tr ca nhung hng ha dch v t
cung t cp
+ Thu nhp t kinh t ngm:
V
2
l thit hi v mi trng gy anh hng
khng tt n sc khe con ngi:
nhim ngun nc, ngun khng kh, suy
thoi ti nguyn, ting n, ch tc giao
thng
NEW phan nh phc li kinh t tt hn so vi
GNPm but s liu xc nh NEW l rt
kh cc nh phn tch kinh t vn phi
dng GDP v GNP.
Personal and marital life of J.M Keynes
Born at 6 Harvey Road, Cambridge, John Maynard
Keynes was the son of John Neville Keynes, an
economics lecturer at Cambridge University, and
Florence Ada Brown, a successful author and a social
reformist. His younger brother Geoffrey Keynes (1887
1982) was a surgeon and bibliophile and his younger
sister Margaret (18901974) married the Nobel-prize-
winning physiologist Archibald Hill.Keynes was very
tall at 1.98 m (6 ft 6 in). In 1918, Keynes met Lydia
Lopokova, a well-known Russian ballerina, and they
married in 1925. By most accounts, the marriage was a
happy one. Before meeting Lopokova, Keynes's love
interests had been men, including a relationship with
the artist Duncan Grant and with the writer Lytton
Strachey. For medical reasons, Keynes and Lopokova
were unable to have children, though both his siblings
had children of note.
Bi 3: tng cu & chnh sch ti kho
The Keynesian Theory of Income Determination: the
theory that will be presented hereafter was developed by
the Cambridge economist John Maynard Keynes in the
wake of the 1920s Great Depression. He argued that the
cause of a low level of income (GDP) in the economy was
given by the lack of AD.
John Maynard Keynes (right) and Harry Dexter White at the Bretton
Woods Confer..
I. Tng chi tiu d kin v tng cu
Nhng gi nh:
-P,w khng i (khng c lm pht)
-Nn kinh t cn nhiu ngun lc cha s
dng ht. AS lun lun p ng AD khng
cn thay i P. =>AD quyt nh mc
sn lng cn bng.
-Khng xt n nh hng ca th trng
tin t i vi th trng hng ha.
-ng nht sn lng vi thu nhp v k
hiu l Y.
Tng chi tiu d kin phn nh mc chi
tiu d kin ti mi mc thu nhp vi gi
nh mc gi cho trc.
1. Tng chi tiu d kin APE (Aggregate Planned
Expenditure)
Trong nn kinh t ng gin n c 2
tc nhn gy ra cu:
*H gia nh: Gy ra cu mt lng l khon
tiu dng C. C ph thuc vo Y, v C c xu h-
ng tng ln khi Y tng. Biu din mi quan h
di dng hm s nh sau:
C = f
1
(Y)
-Cc hng kinh doanh: Gy ra cu mt l-
ng thng qua hnh vi u t ca mnh.
Ta cng c:
I = f
2
(Y)
APE = C + I = f
1
(Y) + f
2
(Y)
1.1. Hm tiu dng
*Khi nim: Hm tiu dng phn nh mc chi
tiu (tiu dng) ca cc h gia nh tng ng
vi mi mc thu nhp
*Cc nhn t nh hng:
-Thu nhp
-Ca ci
-Nhng yu t tm l, XH, tp qun sinh
hot
Khng c thu nhp vn phi tiu dng=>
Khon tiu dng ny khng ph thuc Y
v ngi ta gi l tiu dng t nh, k
hiu Autonomous Consumption)
Nh vy Y= 0, C= f1(0) = C y l hng s
v ngi ta c th thng k c mi quc
gia.

Khng c thu nhp ngi ta vn phi tiu dng
, but Y tng ln =>khng tiu dng ton b Y
m c xu hng gi li mt phn chnh l
hnh vi tit kim.
MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume)
xu hng tiu dng cn bin: cho bit khi
thu nhp tng ln 1 n v th cc h gia
nh c khuynh hng tng tiu dng thm
bao nhiu n v. ;0 <
MPC < 1)

MPC chu nh hng ca tm l, x hi v
tp qun sinh hot khc.
Y MPC C Y f C . ) (
1
+ = =
Y
C
MPC
A
A
=
Hnh v:
C
0
Y
MPC
C = C + MPC.Yd
Vi cch hiu tit kim l phn cn li
sau khi tiu dng, chng ta c:
Y MPS C S
Y MPC C Y MPC C Y S
C Y S
.
). 1 ( .
+ =
+ = =
=
MPS (Marginal Propensity to Save), xu hng
tit kim cn bin: khi thu nhp tng ln 1
n v cc h gia nh c xu hng tng tit
kim thm bao nhiu n v.
V thu nhp ch c th em tiu dng hay
tit kim nn: MPC + MPS = 1.
Ch :
y cn phn bit xu hng tiu
dng cn bin (MPC) v xu hng tit kim
cn bin (MPS) vi xu hng tiu dng trung
bnh
v xu hng tit kim trung bnh.
Ta cng c APC + APS = 1
d
C
APC
Y
=
d
S
APS
Y
=
1.2. Hm u t
u t l mt cu thnh th hai ca APE.
N c hai vai tr trong kinh t v m.
u t l mt khon ln v thay i ca
u t s dn n s thay i ln ca
APE, v APE tc ng ti sn lng v
vic lm.
u t to ra tch ly vn.
*Nhn t nh hng:
-Mc cu v sn phm do u t mi s
to ra: t l thun
- Chi ph u t: t l nghch
- K vng ca cc nh u t:
Chng ta gi nh u t l khng i vi
bt k sn lng trong nm c th thay i
nh th no. Khon u t gi l u t
nh

I I =
. APE C I C I MPCY = + = + +
Khi P, w c nh th trng h.ha v dch v
cn bng ngn hn, khi AD or APE ng
bng sn lng thc t sn xut ra trong nn
kinh t:
.
Y APE
Y C I MPCY
=
= + +
) (
1
1
0
I C
MPC
Y +

=
Sn lng cn bng l:
2. Tng chi tiu d kin & sn lng cn
bng trong nn kinh t ng c s tham
gia ca CP
Nn kinh t c 3 tc nhn gy
ra cu.
d
Y MPC C C . + =
Thu nhp ca dn c khng phi l ton b Y
m ch cn l thu nhp kh dng Y
d
:
Y
d
= Y - T; T = TA - TR (gi l thu
rng)
Thu rng l khon thu thc thu ca chnh
ph sau khi loi tr cc khon tr cp ca
chnh ph cho cng chng.
-Cc hng kinh doanh gy ra cu mt lng l I:
I I =
-Chnh ph gy ra cu mt lng khon chi tiu
G

+Chnh ph nh thu t nh:
T T =
.( ) APE C I G C I G MPC Y T = + + = + + +
0
.( )
1
( )
1 1
Y APE
Y C I G MPC Y T
MPC
Y C I G T
MPC MPC
=
= + + +
= + +

MPC
MPC
m
t

=
1
S nhn thu, ta c:
T m G I C m Y
t
+ + + = ) (
0
+Trng hp chnh ph nh thu theo
thu nhp , T = t.Y (t l thu
sut), chi tiu ca h gia nh, u t v
chi tiu CP l:
Y t MPC C T Y MPC C C ) 1 ( ) ( + = + =
I I =
G G =
(1 ) APE C I G C I G MPC t Y = + + = + + +
0
(1 )
1
( )
1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G MPC t Y
Y C I G
MPC t
=
= + + +
= + +

Cn bng ca nn kinh t
l:
) 1 ( 1
1
t MPC
m

=
'
S nhn chi tiu nn kinh
t ng c chnh ph, ta
c:
MPC
m
t MPC
m

= <

=
'
1
1
) 1 ( 1
1
iu ny cho thy khi chnh ph nh
thu theo thu nhp th kh nng khuych
i chi tiu ca nn kinh t gim xung.
+ Trng hp chnh ph va nh thu
t nh v va nh thu theo thu
nhp
T T t Y = +
( ) (1 ) C C MPC Y T C MPC T MPC t Y = + = +
I I =
G G =
(1 ) APE C I G C I G MPC T MPC t Y = + + = + + +
0
(1 )
1 1
( )
1 (1 ) 1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G MPC T MPC t Y
Y C I G T
MPC t MPC t
=
= + + +
= + +

Cn bng ca nn kinh t
l:
3. APE v sn lng cn bng trong nn
kinh t m c s tham gia ca chnh ph

Gi s chnh ph nh thu theo thu nhp: T
= t.Y

Nn kinh t c 4 tc nhn gy ra
cu:
I I =
G G =
-Chi tiu ca tc nhn nc ngoi; khon XK
rng:
NX = X - M
Lng xut khu X nhn chung c quyt
nh t u nm do khng ph thuc vo
thu nhp trong nc.
X X =
C=C +MPC.(Y-T) = C + MPC.(1-t)Y
Nhu cu M c th l NVL sn xut, hay
tiu dng ca cc h gia nh. C hai trng
hp ny, nhp khu u c th tng khi
thu nhp v sn lng trong nc tng.

Ta c: M = MPM.Y

MPM (Marginal Propensity to Import). Xu
hng nhp khu cn bin: cho bit khi Y
tng ln 1 n v, cng dn trong nc tng
chi cho hng nhp khu thm bao nhiu
n v.
| |
(1 )
APE C I G X M
APE C I G X MPC t MPM Y
= + + +
= + + + +
| |
0
(1 )
1
( )
1 (1 )
Y APE
Y C I G X MPC t MPM Y
Y C I G X
MPC t MPM
=
= + + + +
= + + +
+
Cn bng t c l:
MPM t MPC
m
+
=
' '
) 1 ( 1
1
s nhn chi tiu trong
nn kinh t m (open-
economy multiplier).
m < m < m. S nhn chi tiu trong nn kinh t m
c kh nng khuych i km hn trong nn kinh
t ng.
II.Chnh sch ti kho:
1. Khi nim: Chnh sch ti kha l vic
chnh ph s dng thu v chi tiu iu
tit AD.
2. Cc loi chnh sch ti kho:
2.1. Chnh sch ti kho m rng (lng)
:expansionary fiscal policy
2.2. Chnh sch ti kho thu hp (cht):
contractionary fiscal policy
3. Chnh sch ti kha v vn thm
ht NS
Ngn sch nh nc l bng tng hp cc
khon thu, chi ca chnh ph trong
khong thi gian nht nh (thng l mt
nm).
Gi B l hiu s gia thu v chi ngn
sch, ta c:
B = T - G
*Khi nim ngn sch nh nc (State Budget)
+ B = 0: Ngn sch nh nc cn
bng
+ B > 0: Thu nhiu hn chi, thng
d ngn sch
+ B < 0: Thu nh hn chi, thm
ht ngn sch

- Thm ht ngn sch thc t: L thm
ht khi s chi thc t vt s thu thc t
trong mt thi k nht nh.

*Phn loi thm ht ngn sch
-Thm ht ngn sch chu k:L thm ht
khi nn kinh t b suy thoi theo chu k kinh
doanh.

-Thm ht ngn sch c cu: L thm ht
tnh ton c khi gi nh nn kinh t t
sn lng tim nng.
Ta c: B
tt
= B
ck
+ B
cc
=>B
cc
= B
tt
- B
ck


4. CSTK cng chiu v ngc chiu:
4.1. Chnh sch ti kha cng
chiu:Chnh sch ti kha cng chiu l
chnh sch ti kha hng ti mc tiu cn
bng ngn sch (B = 0) bt k sn lng thay
i nh th no.
4.2. Chnh sch ti kha ngc chiu:
nhm a sn lng v Y* bt k ngn sch
b thm ht nh th no (Y = Y
*
)
Nn kinh t suy thoi, Y thp, CP tng chi
tiu or gim T or s dng hai bin php nhm
gi cho chi tiu mc cao, Y tng ln Y* but
ngn sch s b thm ht.
5. Bin php gim thm ht NS:
-Tng thu gim chi
-Vay n trong dn: cng tri, tri phiu
CP
-Vay n nc ngoi,
-In tin , s dng qu d tr ngoi t
Bi 4 - Tin t v chnh sch tin t
I. Tin t
1. Khi nim, qu trnh hnh thnh v pht
trin cc hnh thi tin t
a. Khi nim:
Tin t l tt c nhng th c x hi chp
nhn lm phng tin thanh ton v trao
i. Bn thn chng c th c hoc
khng c gi tr ring.
b. Qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin cc
hnh thi tin t
Qu trnh pht trin lu di t nhng th
nh: v c, v s, gia sc, ng, st, vng,
bc, kim cng v n tin giy ngy
nay
Pht trin cc hnh thi ca tin t nh
sau:
Hng i hng => Hng ha lm vt
trung gian (tin nguyn thu) => Tin
giy, tin sc, th tn dng ngn hng
2. Chc nng ca tin t
a. Phng tin thanh ton
Tin c s dng thanh ton cho cc
giao dch mua hoc bn hng ha v
dch v.
b. D tr gi tr
Tin c th ct tr hm nay v tiu dng
gi tr ca n trong tng lai.
c. n v hch ton
Tin cung cp mt n v tiu chun gi
tr v c dng o lng gi tr ca cc
hng ha khc.
d. Chc nng tin t th gii
3. Phn loi tin t
*Cn c mc c chp nhn thanh ton
(hay kh nng thanh khon - L: Liquidity),
tin c chia lm cc loi sau:
M
0
= Tin mt. i vi ni b mt nn
kinh t, y l loi tin c chp nhn
cao nht mc d vic nm gi n khng
c kh nng sinh li.
M
1
= Tin mt + tin sc (D: Deposit,
l khon tin gi khng k hn c th thanh
ton thng qua giy t do ngn hng bo
m. Kh nng thanh khon ca M
1
km
hn M
0
nhng vn rt cao nn c nhiu
quc gia s dng o lng khi lng tin
lu thng trong nn kinh t.
M
2
= M
1
+ tin gi c k hn. Kh nng
thanh khon ca loi ny l thp nht nn
ch c mt s quc gia c th trng ti
chnh pht trin mnh, v d nh M, s
dng o lng khi lng tin lu thng.
II. Ngn hng thng mi v kh nng to ra
tin ca ngn hng thng mi.
1. Ngn hng thng mi
Ngn hng thng mi l mt t chc trung
gian v ti chnh, kinh doanh tin t, hot
ng da trn nghip v chnh l nhn gi
v cho vay tin.
Khch hng NHTM: c nhn, cc DN, cc t
chc KT-XH c tin nhn ri mun cho vay
kim li hoc ang cn tin m
rng sn xut kinh doanh.

2. Kh nng to tin ca ngn hng thng
mi

Hot ng ca ngn hng thng mi ngy
nay bt ngun t c s ca nhng ngi th
vng.
Kh nng to ra tin ca NHTM l kh
nng to ra thm phng tin thanh ton cho
nn kinh t thng qua nghip v ca
NHTM (phng tin thanh ton gm c tin
mt v tin sc).
b. Kh nng to tin ca ngn hng thng
mi.
a. Ngun gc hot ng to ra tin ca
ngn hng thng mi.
NHTM huy ng tin gi h lun gi mt
khon phng ri ro khi ngi cho vay
rt tin, gi l d tr thc t, k hiu l
R
a
. Vic d tr ny lun lun tun theo
mt t l nht nh gi l t l d tr
thc t, k hiu r
a
.
r
a
= r
b
+ r
e

r
b
: t l d tr bt buc do ngn hng
nh nc (NHTW) quy nh.
r
e
: t l d tr di tha, ph thuc vo uy
tn cu ngn hng thng mi, kh nng
ti chnh v cc mi quan h vi cc ngn
hng khc.
Hthng NHTM Tin gi (D) D tr (Ra) Cho vay
NH
1
1 1.ra (1-ra)
NH
2
(1-ra) (1-ra).ra (1-ra)
2
NH
3
(1-ra)
2
(1-ra)
2
.ra (1-ra)
3
... ... ... ...
NH
(n+1)
(1-ra)
n
(1-ra)
n
.ra (1-ra)
n+1
a
n
a
a
n
a n
a a a
r
r
r
r
r r r D
1 1
2
) 1 ( 1
1
) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( 1
1 ) 1 ( ... ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1
+ +

=


= + + + + =
Vi 0 < r
a
< 1 th . Do vy
(t.)
10
1
1
0 1
1 = =

=
a a
r r
D
III. Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) v kh
nng iu tit lng cung tin ca NHTW
1. Chc nng ca NHTW (Ngn hng Nh n-
c)
NHTW l ngn hng duy nht ca mt
quc gia thc hin 2 chc nng sau:
*Ngn hng ca cc ngn hng thng mi:
+ NHTW l ni gi cc ti khon v cc qu
d tr ca NHTM.
+ NHTW l ngi cho vay cui cng ca cc
ngn hng thng mi.

*Ngn hng ca chnh ph
+ NHTW lu gi cc ti khon, ti sn, cc
khon cho vay v i vay cp chnh ph.
+ NHTW gip chnh ph hoch nh v
thc thi chnh sch tin t, ng thi h
tr chnh sch ti kha khi cn thit, in
tin v pht hnh tin.
2. Kh nng iu tit lng Ms ca NHTW
a. Xc nh lng cung tin (MS: Money
Supply)
*Khi nim:
Lng cung tin l tng khi lng phng
tin thanh ton bng tin mt v tin
sc hin c trong nn kinh t.
* Cch xc nh:
NHTW khng pht hnh ton b s tin,
m ch pht hnh mt lng l H
0
, (tin c
s hay tin mnh-Basic Money, High
Powered Money), H
0
< M
0
. Lng tin ny
s c phn phi nh sau:
+ Cc tc nhn trong nn kinh t s gi li
mt phn chi tiu dn, k hiu l U.
(n khng sinh ra thm cc phng tin
thanh ton m c xu hng hao dn i
trong qu trnh lu thng do b rch,
chy,gi nh khi phn tch l k i
+ Phn cn li c gi ti cc ngn hng, k
hiu l R. Thng qua h thng NHTM s to
ra mt lng ti a khon cho vay mi l

R
r
D
a
=
1
Tin c s (H
0
)
U R
U D
Mc cung tin MS
Ta c: H
0
= U + R v MS = U + D
Mc cung tin ln hn nhiu so vi lng tin c s
nh hot ng to ra tin ca cc NHTM(MS >
H
0
).
H
0
v t l d tr thc t r
a
nhng cha bit
MS v rt c th khon tin gi c th b
r r khi h thng ngn hng nh chng
ta phn tch trong phn trc. Tuy nhin,
nh vo cc s liu thng k m NHTW c
th bit c t l tin mt so vi tin gi,
k hiu l s
) (
D
U
s =
R U
D U
H
MS
+
+
=
0
Thay u = S.D v R = r
a
.D vo cng
thc
0
0
1
1
. .
.
H
r s
s
MS
r s
s
D r D s
D D s
H
MS
a
a a

+
+
=
+
+
=
+
+
=
a
M
r s
s
m
+
+
=
1
S nhn cung tin(Money
supply multiplier)
MS = m
M
. H
0

*Nhn xt:
-ra gim=> m
M
tng=>MS tng
- H
0
tng=> m
M
tng=>MS tng
-s tng=>
=> m
M
gim=>MS gim
( ) (1 ) 1 1
1
a a a
M
a a a
s r r r s
m
s r s r s r
+ + +
= = = +
+ + +
s ph thuc:thi quen thanh ton, tc
tng TD, kh nng sn sng p n tin
NHTW
b. Cng c iu tit lng cung tin
Nghip v th trng m l nghip v m
NHTW p dng nhm iu chnh lng cung
tin thng qua vic mua vo v bn ra tri
phiu chnh ph trn th trng t do
*Nghip v th trng m (Open Market
Operation: OMO):
*Quy nh t l d tr bt buc (Required
reserve ratio: r
b
) - r
a
= r
b
+ r
e
* Quy nh li sut chit khu (Discount
rate):
IV. Th trng tin t
1. Cu tin (MD: Money
Demand)
a.Khi nim:
Cu tin l tng khi lng cc phng tin
thanh ton (tin mt v tin sc) m cc tc
nhn trong nn kinh t cn phc v
cho nhng giao dch ca h tng ng vi
mi mc li sut cn cc yu t kinh t khc
cho trc.
b.ng c:
ng c giao dch:
ng c d phng:
ng c u c:
c. Cc nhn t nh hng:
* Mc gi chung P
n
r
n
r
MD
P
MD MD const
MD
P
MD MD const

= =

= =

MD
n
(nominal Money Demand, l cu
tin tnh theo mc gi ca k nghin cu
s tng
MD
r
(real Money Demand, l cu tin
tnh theo mc gi ca k gc) khng
i.
*Li sut:
*Sn lng (hay thu nhp)
Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng ti cu tin
thc t ngi ta xy dng hm cu tin thc
t:
MD = kY - hi
Trong , k v h l h s nhy cm ca cu
tin i vi sn lng v li sut.
Y tng=> MD tng v ngc li
i tng => MD gim v ngc li
h
kY
0
kY
0
h
kY
1
i
M

0
MD1
MD0
ng vi mi mc sn lng s c mt ng
cu tin
V d: MD
0
= kY
0
-hi; MD
1
= kY
1
hi
Nhn xt:
+ i thay i,,=>lng cu tin s di chuyn
trn ng MD, cc yt khc khng i.
+ Y thay i, ng MD shift right or lefti.
Mc dch chuyn ph thuc vo h s
k.
+ dc ca ng MD ph thuc vo h s
nhy cm ca cu tin i vi li sut (h).

1 kY
i MD
h h
=
2. Cung tin: Money supply
* Nhn t nh hng n cung tin

-Mc gi chung P: MS danh ngha khng
ph thuc gi chung but MS thc t th ph
thuc v:
0
1
H
r s
s
MS
a
n

+
+
=
P
MS
MS
n
r
=
-Mong mun ca NHTW. i thay i nhng
MS c th constant nu NHTW cha
mun thay i MS
i
0
M
MDo
MSo
Eo
io
3. Cn bng trn th trng tin t:
* Khi nim: l giao im ca MD, MS v
k hiu l E th E c gi im cn bng
ca th trng tin t, li sut i
0
tng ng
vi im E gi l li sut cn bng.
* Nhn xt:
+ Nu li sut thc t trn th trng c gi
tr khc i
0
th tng tc cung cu trn th tr-
ng tin t s gy p lc y mc li sut
trn v v tr cn bng. Khi MS, MD th v
tr ca im cn bng E cng thay i
ko theo li sut cn bng thay i.
Bi 5: Lm pht v tht nghip
I.Tht nghip ( unemployment)
1. Khi nim
Tht nghip l tnh trng mt b phn
ca lc lng lao ng do nhng nguyn
nhn khc nhau dn n cha c vic
lm.
-Lc lng lao ng: l mt b phn ca
dn s, trong tui lao ng, c
kh nng lao ng, c ngha v lao
ng v c mong mun lm vic.
C vic
Tht
nghip
Lc l-
ng
L
m,ni
tr, k
lm..
Ngoi
Trong

tui
lao
ng
Dn
s
S lc lng lao ng
-Ngi khng nm trong LLL l ngoi tui
lao ng,(Ngi gi v tr em), khng c
kh nng lao ng, ngi khng c ngha
v lao ng (SV,HS) v nhng ngi khng
c mong mun lm vic
2. o lng tht nghip
T l tht nghip ( u - Unemployment
Rate): l % s ngi tht nghip so vi
tng s ngi trong lc lng lao ng.
U (Unemployed): S ngi tht nghip
L (Labour Force): Lc lng lao ng
% 100 =
L
U
u
3. Phn loi tht nghip
a. Phn loi theo l do tht nghip:
B vic, mt vic, mi gia nhp lc l-
ng lao ng nhng cha c vic lm, Ti
gia nhp lc lng lao ng nhng cha c
vic lm
b. Phn loi theo ngun gc tht nghip:
+Tht nghip do c xt (hay tht nghip
tm thi): khi ngi lao ng trong qu trnh
tm kim vic lm mi.
+Tht nghip c cu: xy ra khi thi
gian, a im v k nng ca ngi lao
ng cn vic lm khng ph hp vi thi
gian, a im v k nng ca cng
vic ang cn lao ng.
+Tht nghip do thiu cu: xy ra khi
mc cu chung v lao ng gim
xung.

+Tht nghip do yu t ngoi th tr-
ng (tht nghip theo l thuyt c
in): xy ra khi tin lng c n nh
khng bi cc lc lng th trng m cao
hn mc lng cn bng thc t ca
th trng lao ng.
c. Phn loi theo tnh cht tht
nghip- Tht nghip t nguyn,
Tht nghip khng t nguyn.
4. Th trng lao ng
a. Cu lao ng (LD - Labour
Demand)
L s lng lao ng m cc tc nhn trong
nn kinh t mong mun v c kh nng
thu tng ng vi cc mc lng thc t,
trong mt thi gian nht nh (gi nh
cc yu t kinh t khc khng i)
L
1
L
2
L

W
r




W
1


W
0
A1
2
P
W
W
n
r
=
b. Cung lao ng (LS - Labour
Supply): l s lao ng c kh nng v
sn sng lm vic tng ng vi nhng
mc lng thc t trong mt khong thi
gian nht nh, gi inh cc yu t khc
khng thay i.
LS : quy m LLL x hi tng ng vi cc
mc lng ca TTL.
LF: quy m b phn L chp nhn lm
vic mi mc lng ca TTL
+Khong cch gia LS v LF biu th s
ngi tht nghip t nguyn; LS &LF xu h-
ng dc ln trn phn nh khi Wr tng ln th
quy m LLL v s ngi chp nhn lm
vic tng ln.
W
r
0
L
LS
LF
c. Cn bng th trng lao ng
Wr
W1
W0
A
B
C
LS
LF
E
F
L
L0
0
LD
AB: tht nghip khng t nguyn
BC:tht nghip t nguyn
EF: tht nghip t nhin
AC:tht nghip
W1C: lc lng lao ng
W1A:s ngi oc nhn vo lm vic
Ch thch m hnh th trng lao ng
-Tht nghip t nhin l tht nghip t
nguyn nhng TN t nguyn s khng l
TN t nhin khi TT L cn bng
-Ti im cn bng TTL, LS=LD=>P v
W hp l, n nh khng c gia tng lm
pht.
-Ti Wo, s vic lm l nhiu nht: ton
dng nhn cng
-Ti W< W0 khng c TN khng t nguyn
II.Lm pht (Inflation):
1.Khi nim v thc o lm pht:
Lm pht (inflation) l s tng ln ca
mc gi chung trong nn kinh t trong
mt khong thi gian nht nh.

Khi mc gi chung trong nn kinh t
gim xung trong mt khong thi gian
nht nh gi l gim pht (deflation).
2. Thc o lm pht:
Cng thc tnh:
Gp:price growth
rate
1
1
100%
t t
p
t
P P
g
P

=
P
t-1
: mc gi chung ca k trc
P
t
: mc gi chung ca k nghin cu
Theo l thuyt mc gi chung (P) c
tnh bng gi tr bnh qun gia quyn
ca gi hng ho dch v trong nn kinh
t.
n
n n
Q Q Q
Q P Q P Q P
P
+ + +
+ + +
=
...
...
2 1
2 2 1 1
*Tnh P theo mi loi hng ho kh khn, do
c th tnh lm pht theo 2 ch s:
+Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI-Consumer Price
Index):phn nh s bin ng gi ca mt
"gi" hng ho v dch v tiu biu cho c
cu tiu dng x hi.
0
1
0 0
1
k
t
i i
i
k
i i
i
P Q
CPI
P Q
=
=
=

Cng thc
:
1
k
p
i i
i
CPI I d
=
=

or
P
0
i: Gi k gc hng i; P
1
i: Gi k nghin cu ca
hng i
Q
0i
: Lng k gc ca hng i; I
i
p
:

Ch s gi ca tng
loi hng, nhm hng trong gi
d
i
: T trng mc tiu dng tng loi hng, nhm
hng trong gi; phn nh c cu tiu dng ca XH

Mt hng Chs gi (I
2005/2004
) T trng (d)
A 1,2 30%
B 1,4 25%
C 0,9 15%
E 1,5 30%
CPI2005=1,2x30%+1,4x25%+0,9x15%+1,5x30%=1,29
5
1
1
100%
t t
p
t
CPI CPI
g
CPI

=
CPIt-1: k trc
CPIt:k nghin cu
Ch : CPI hn ch do khng th hin
nhng thay i v cht lng ca hho,Dv
hay nhng thay i khi xut hin cc mt
hng mi.
+ Ch s gim pht GDP (D: Deflator)
1
0
1
100% 100%
n
t t
i i
n i
n
t
r
i i
i
P Q
GDP
D
GDP
P Q
=
=
= =

Ch s gim pht GDP cho ta bit s thay

i gi ca tt c hho,dv cui cng
trong nn k. t so vi gi ca thi k c
chn lm gc=> cng c th tnh c t
l lm pht.
1
1
100%
t t
p
t
D D
g
D

=
+ Ch s gi sn xut (Producer Price Index-
PPI)
phn nh s bin ng gi c ca u vo,
thc cht l bin ng gi c chi ph sn
xut.

Trng s s dng tnh ton PPI l doanh
thu rng ca hng ho.(= TR tr i cc
khon gim tr doanh thu nh: chit khu
thng mi, gim gi v doanh thu hng b
tr li. Ch s ny t c s dng (ch c
M).
1
k
p
i i
i
CPI I d
=
=

I
i
p
:

Ch s gi ca cc yu t u vo
d
i
: T trng doanh thu rng ca cc loi hng
ho
2. Phn loi lm pht
Tnh theo mc ca t l lm pht ng-
i ta chia lm pht thnh 3 loi: Lm pht
va phi, lm pht phi m v siu lm pht.
* Lm pht va phi (Moderate
Inflation):l lm pht mt con s, di
10%/nm, gi c tng chm v c th d
on trc c.
Lm pht va phi k gy ra nhng tc
ng nhiu vi nn kinh t, n cn c
kh nng khch thch SX v gi tng nh
lm tng li nhun s khuyn khch cc
DN tng sn lng
*Lm pht phi m (Galloping Inflation): l
lm pht 2 con s (10%-99%) trong mt
nm, lm pht ny nu ko di s gy ra
nhng bin dng kinh t nghim trng,
trit tiu cc ng lc pht trin kinh t.
*Siu lm pht (Hyper Inflation): l lm pht
3 con s tr ln,100% c t l lm pht
trong 1 nm.
Weimar c nhng nm 1920s, 1922-
12/1923 ch s gi tng t 1 ln 10triu.
+Cn c theo tnh cht lm pht:
*Lm pht d kin: do yu t tm l, d
an ca cc c nhn v tc tng gi
tng lai, vo lm pht qu kh. nh hng
khng ln v ch tc ng iu chnh
chi ph SX.
+Lm pht khng d kin: do cc c sc
t bn ngoi v cc tc nhn trong nn
kinh t khng d kin c v b bt
ng.
3. Tc hi ca lm pht:
* Nu P cc loi hng ho tng vi tc
u nhau th hu nh khng nh hng
n nn kinh t do gi c tng i ca
cc hng ha khng thay i.
*Lm pht thng xy ra theo hai hng:
+ Tc tng gi ca h.ho, d.v khng
u,
+ Tc tng P v tng Q cng khng
ng u.

*Lm pht gy ra nhng tc hi chnh:
+Phn phi li thu nhp v ca ci mt
cc ngu nhin gia cc c nhn, tp
on...
+Lm gim tnh hiu qu kinh t do
hu qu tiu cc m lm pht gy ra.
+Bin dng c cu SX v vic lm=>DN
ph sn or chuyn hng kinh doanh
4. Cc l thuyt v lm pht
* Lm pht do cu ko (Demand pulled
Inflation)
Xy ra khi tng cu tng ln mnh m ti
mc sn lng t hoc vt qu sn lng
tim nng.
AD1
AD0
P1
P0
0 Y
Y*
P AS
*Lm pht do chi ph y (Cost pushed
Inflation)
Lm pht do chi ph y xy ra khi chi ph
sn xut tng t ngt.
P
0
Y*
Y
Y0
AS0
AS1
AD
P0
P1
Y1
*Lm pht (Inertial Inflation)
Khi nn kinh t kh n nh, cc tc
nhn trong nn kinh t cho rng s c
lm pht t l tng t v iu chnh li
sut danh ngha, tin lng danh ngha,
gi c trong cc hp ng kinh t, cc
khon chi tiu ngn schtheo t l lm
pht cc nm trc .
*Lm pht v tin t; khi th trng tin t
cn bng

hi kY MD MS
P
MS
r r
n
= = =
+Nu lng (MS
n
) tng ln th gi c (P)
cng s tng ln vi t l tng ng, =>lm
pht v t l lm pht bng t l tng tin
danh ngha.
Theo l thuyt sn lng & tin t
M.V=P.Y
M: lng cung tin trong nn kt
V:tc lu thng tin t
P: mc gi chung cho nn kinh t
Y: sn lng ca nn kinh t
-Gi nh V, Y k i=>%thay i M=%P
+Khi nn kinh t gp phi cn sc nh gi
ca cc yu t u vo tng ln => (MS
r
)
gim nht thi=>CP phi tng MSn
m bo nhu cu tin thc t. L thuyt
ny da trn gi nh MSr, (gi nh ny
cha c c s chc chn & cha gn thc
t.
+Khi NHTW tng MS => lm pht. Khi lm
pht tng nhanh th cn gim tc tng
tin=>CP thay v in tin, c th pht
hnh cng tri trong nhn dn chi
tiu.
* Lm pht v li sut
+Li sut t.t = Li sut danh ngha -T l
lm pht
r = i - gp
+Li sut danh ngha (i) l chi ph c hi
ca vic gi tin
+ Gi thuyt ca Irving Fisher gp tng
1% =>i tng 1% v r t thay i v mc
m c ngi cho vay v ngi i vay u
c th chp nhn c. Nu khc i s to
ra mc d cu hoc d cung v y li
sut ny v mc n nh.
+H cao phi c b p li bng i cao
hn tng ng duy tr r cn bng.
+Nc no c i cao thng H cao, v ngc li,
hay thng qua i ngi ta c th nh gi H
+Nu H thc t > H d kin: ngui i vay
li
+Nu H thc t< H d kin:ngi cho vay
li
5. Cc bin php khc phc lm pht

+Gim mnh tc tng cung tin,
kim sot c hiu qu vic tng lng
danh ngha v ct gim chi tiu ngn
sch
y l bin php to c sc cu, v khi
MS gim => i tng=>Ygim=>C,I,G gim
=>AD gim=>Ygim=> gy ra mt mc
suy thoi v tht nghip nht nh.
+ Trng hp lm pht va, mun kim ch
lm pht v y t t xung mc thp
hn i hi p dng nhng chnh sch
ni trn nhng mc nh hn.
6. Mi quan h gia lm pht v tht
nghip:
*Tht nghip tng=> lm pht gim v
ngc li tht nghip gim th lm pht
tng.
*Nguyn nhn dn ti mi quan h ng-
c chiu gia lm pht v tht nghip
*ng Phillips
Bi 6: Tng trng kinh t
I. Khi nim v o lng tng trng kinh t
L s gia tng hay m rng quy m ca
mc sn lng tim nng ca nn kinh t
quc gia
Phn bit gia tng trng kinh t v
pht trin kinh t
II.o lng tng trng kinh t:
*o bng % thay i GDP thc t
% 100
1
1

t
t t
t
Y
Y Y
g
+gt l tng trng kinh t, tnh theo GDP
thc t loi b nh hng ca P,
% 100
1
1

t
t t
pct
y
y y
g
*o bng GDP u ngi: loi b vic
GDP tng nhng tng chm hn dn s
II. Cc yu t quyt inh tng trng kinh
t
1.Vn nhn lc ( Human capital)
2. Tch lu t bn (capital accumulation)
3. Ti nguyn thin nhin (Natural resource)
4. Cng ngh (Technology)
III.C s l thuyt ca tng trng kinh
t:
1. L thuyt c in ca Adam Smith v
Malthus
t ai ng vai tr quan trng i vi
tng trng kinh t
+Adam Smith: thi k vng son
+Malthus: Thi k m m
2. L thuyt tng trng trng phi
Keynes
u t lm tng vic lm=> sn lng v
thu nhp tng=> ch trng khuyn
khch nh nc tng u t tng tng
cu, thc y tng trng.
Y
K
ICOR
A
A
=
Y
I
ICOR
A
=
ICOR
s
Y
Y
=
A
ICOR (Incremental Capital-Output Ratio -
h s gia tang vn u ra)
Coi S=I th
c
M hnh Harrod- Domar cho thy vai
tr ca tch lu t bn i vi tng trng
kinh t
ICOR
s
g =
) (
Y
S
s =
*Nu ICOR khng i th g tng cng h
s t l tit kim
*Nhn xt: +ICOR khng phi bt bin
+M hnh cha tnh n vn
nhn lc v cng ngh
3. L thuyt tn c in v tng tr-
ng;
M hnh tng trng tiu biu l Solow
3.1. Gii thiu: 2/1956 va 11-1956 ca
hai tc gi Solow v Swan
*Ti sao gi l tn c in: th trng
to cn bng + vai tr ca chnh ph
3.2. Kt lun t m hnh:
+Vai tr ca tit kim
+Tch lu t bn vi tng trng ngn hn
+Yu t quyt nh tng trng di
hn
4. Chnh sch thc y tng trng:
4.1. Khuyn khch tit kim v u t trong
nc
4.2. Chnh sch thu ht u t nc ngoi
4.3. Chnh sch v ngun vn nhn
lc
4.4. Nghin cu trin khai cng ngh
mi