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BIN I KH HU
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BiN I KH HU
Chng I. H thng kh hu Tri t Chng II. Khi qut kh hu Vit Nam Chng III. Bin i kh hu Chng IV. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu Vt Nam Chng V. Chin lc gim nh v thch ng vi bin i kh hu Chng VI. nh gi tc ng ca Bin i kh hu
BIN I KH HU
CHNG I
H THNG KH HU TRAI T
CHNG I. H THNG KH HU TRAI T
CHNG I. H THNG KH HU TRAI T
1.1. Khi nim kh hu v thi tit 1.2. H thng chi phi kh hu Tri t 1.3. H thng chi phi kh hu Vit Nam
Chng I. H THNG KH HU TRAI T
1.1. Khai nim khi hu va thi tit Thi tit l trng thi tc thi ca kh quyn ti mt khu vc a l c th v ti mt thi im c th. Kh hu l trng thi trung binh ca thi tit ti mt khu vc a l c th trong mt khong thi gian c th (thng, ma, nm) Thi tit c biu hin bng cc hin tng nng, ma, my, gio, nong lnh...) ti mt ni no o v thay i t ngy ny qua ngy khc, thng ny qua thng khc, nm ny qua nm khc, ngay c khi kh hu ti ni o khng thay i. Kh hu kh n nh , it thay i.
Chng I. H THNG KH HU TRI T
1.2. H thng chi phi khi hu Trai t : 5 h thng chnh

1. Khi quyn: Tri t l mt hnh tinh c bao ph bng mt lp khng kh m ta goi l kh quyn. Kh quyn co vai tro quyt nh trong vic cn bng nng lng trn tri t, lm kh hu tri t n hoa, to iu kin cho cc sinh vt sng 2. ai dng: i dng th gii co din tch khong 361 triu km2, chim 71% din tch b mt tri t v co khi lng 1 ty 340 triu km3. su trung binh ca i dng l 3711m, gn mt na i dng trn th gii co su trn 3000m. 3. Bng quyn: Bng quyn bao gm tt c cc vng co bng v tuyt bao ph trn tri t, k c trn bin v trn t lin, o l Bc cc, Nam cc, o Greenland, min bc Canada, min bc Siberia v phn ln cc nui cao trn th gii, nhng ni co nhit di khng quanh nm. 4. t lin: t lin bao gm t lin, trm tch, trn mt t, cc i lc v c trong long t m ta thng goi l thach quyn. Thnh phn ny ca h thng kh hu co th nh hng n kh hu ton cu nhng quy m khc nhau 5. Sinh quyn: Sinh quyn trn t lin v trong i dng co nh hng n phn x ca b mt tri t. Nhng vng rng rng ln lm gim phn x v do o, gim s pht x nng lng ca tri t
1.2. H thng chi phi khi hu Trai t (tip)
1.3. H thng chi phi khi hu Vit Nam

Lanh th Vit nam nm trong khu vc Chu gio ma. - Ch mt tri ni ch tuyn quyt nh; - Khu vc chu tc ng mnh ca hon lu gio ma, th gio i hng v c lp v tnh cht gia hai na nm ma h v ma ng. Hai nguyn nhn kt hp ht sc phc tp vi iu kin a l a dn ti nhng h qu v cng c sc trong ch thi tit.
Ba h thng gio ma chu :

H thng ng Bc chu (Vin ng, Nht Bn, Triu Tin): gio ma ma ng a KK cc i t ria pha ng p cao Xibia ti; Gio ma ma h co hng i lp t ria pha ty ca p cao TBD a KK nong v m t. H thng Nam chu (n , Malaixia, Mianma, Thi Lan). Gio ma ma ng chi phi bi trung tm p cao Tuaketxtan kt hp vi kh lu ty n i h thp. Gio ma ma h l tn phong Nam bn cu vt xch o ln. H thng ng Nam (Philippin, Malaixia v vng ni ch tuyn ty TBD). Ma ng gio co ngun gc t p cao cn ch tuyn TBD chnh l tn phong Bc bn cu. Gio ma ma h co ngun gc t nam TBD, cung l khng kh bin m v mt, chi i lp v hng. Mt c im ht sc quan trong l lanh th nc ta khng hon ton nm trong phm vi khng ch ca mt h thng no trong ba h thng noi trn. V tr co tnh cht chuyn tip v mt a l a khin cho khi thi gio thuc mt h thng ny ln ti, khi thi mt h thng kia pht huy nh hng.
Chng II. KHI QUT KH HU ViT NAM
Chng II KHI QUT KH HU VIT NAM
Chng II. KHI QUT KH HU VIT NAM
Chng II. KHI QUT KH HU VIT NAM 2.1. Cc nhn t hinh thnh kh hu 2.2. Phn b cc yu t kh hu 2.3. Phn vng kh hu Vit Nam
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
Bn cht kh hu c quy nh bi v tr a l ca lanh th: nm hon ton trong i ni ch tuyn ca bn cu Bc v chu nh hng su sc ca bin ng. Phn b kh hu gn lin vi 5 nhom a hinh ch yu: i nui, Karst, thung lung v long cho min nui, ng bng tch t v b bin, trong o quan trong nht l nhom a hinh i nui v nhom a hinh ng bng tch t. a hinh i nui gm 7 kiu: nui cao trn 2500m (Ty Bc); nui trung binh vi cao 1500 - 2500m (ng Bc, Ty Bc, Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B); kiu nui thp 500 - 1500m hu ht khu vc trn lanh th; kiu sn nguyn (Ty Nguyn, Ty Bc); kiu cao nguyn (Ty Nguyn); kiu i (ng Bc) v kiu bn binh nguyn (trung du Bc B v Nam B). ng bng tch t gm 3 kiu: ng bng chn nui hp ngang Trung B; ng bng thm tch t - xm thc hoc xm thc - tch t v ng bng tch t do sng Bc B v Nam B. Phn b ti nguyn kh hu gn lin vi s hinh thnh 7 khu vc a l kh hu: Ty Bc, ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B, duyn hi Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B. Thy vc cung co quan h mt thit vi kh hu Vit Nam.
Hon cnh a l
iu kin bc xa
Vit Nam co ch BX ni ch tuyn: cao mt tri kh ln, thi gian chiu sng ng u, tng lng BXMT phong phu v cn cn BX lun lun dng. Tng s gi chiu sng hng nm l 4300 4500 gi, kh ng u trn cc vi . im cc Bc, s gi chiu sng trong thng t nht l 356 v thng nhiu nht l 385. im cc Nam, cc tr s o l 327 v 415. Lng BX tng cng l tng hng nm ln ti 230 - 250 kcal/cm2/nm, co thng ln n 25 - 26 kcal/cm2/thng, t nht cung l 11 - 12 kcal/cm2/thng. Cn cn bc x vo khong 40 - 120 kcal/cm2/nm, tng i thp pha Bc, tng i cao pha Nam v gim dn theo cao a l. pha Bc Hi Vn, cn cn bc x nm u di 100 kcal/cm2. Cn cn bc x pha Nam khng nhng cao m con kh ng u gia cc thng. Trong khi o, cn cn bc x pha Bc va thp va co bin ln, thp nht vo ma ng do nh hng ca thi tit ma phn.
Hoan lu khi quyn

Hon lu kh quyn Vit Nam l mt b phn ca hon lu gio ma ng Nam vi 3 c im ni bt sau y: - Chu nh hng mnh me ca vng bin xch o Thi Binh Dng trong ma ng ln ma he. - Co mi lin h cht che vi gio ma Nam , nht l trong ma h, va chu tc ng mnh me ca gio ma ng Bc , nht l trong ma ng. - Chu tc ng ca hon lu cc i v n i ca bn cu Bc, va lin kt cht che vi hon lu nhit i v cn nhit i ca bn cu Nam. Hon lu gio ma Vit Nam l s tng hoa ca h thng gio ma Nam v ng Bc vi nhiu sc thi ring bit cho hai ma ch yu: ma ng (XI III), ma he (V IX) v hai ma chuyn tip: xun (IV) v thu (X).
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
Bo Hng nm, trn khu vc Bin ng, trung binh co 11 cn bao v p thp nhit i hot ng, mt na s o l xoy thun nhit i t vng bin Ty Thi Binh Dng di chuyn vo. Khong 2/3 s xoy thun nhit i hot ng trn Bin ng b hoc trc tip nh hng n cc khu vc a l ca Vit Nam, nht l cc khu vc ven bin.
Phn b cac yu t khi hu Kh p v gio Kh p v gio l hai trong cc yu t kh hu quan trong, phn nh iu kin hon lu trong bi cnh a hinh bng phng v thng thong. Bin i theo chu ki nm trong c ch hon lu, keo theo nhng bin i chu ky nm v kh p cung nh v gio v do o, hinh thnh ma kh p v ma gio. V c bn, ma kh p v ma gio u tng t vi ma hon lu. Kh p tng i cao vo cc thng ma ng, cao nht vo thng XII, thng I v tng i thp vo cc thng ma he, thp nht vo thng VII, thng VIII. Kh p cao nht u xy ra vo cc thng ma ng v kh p thp nht u xy ra vo ma he.
My v nng Lng my tng quan trung binh nm ln n 6,5 8,0 B, TB, BBB, BTB v khong 5,5 7,0 NTB, TN v NB. S gi nng TB nm khong 1400 3000. Nng tng dn t Bc vo Nam, t lin ra hi o v t vng nui cao n vng nui thp. Cc khu vc pha Nam co trn 2000 gi nng/nm, vng ng bng duyn hi cc NTB co 2600 3000 gi nng/nm. Cc khu vc pha Bc u co t hn 2000 gi nng/nm Ma nng (l thi gian co s gi nng TB trn 100), min Bc l t thng IV, V n thng XI, XII, con min Nam keo di quanh nm.
Nhit
Nhit TB nm cao nht l 27,7C (thng VII) v thp nht l 12,8C vo thng Tng nhit khong 3000 - 10000C trong c nm, 1400 - 4400C trong (XI IV) v 1600 - 5600C trong (V X). Nhit thp nht vo thng XII-I vng nui BB, thp nht l -3,7C (Hong Lin Sn ngy 14/12/1975). Nhit cao nht vo thng III-V cc khu vc pha Nam v thng V-VII cc khu vc pha Bc. Bin trinh ngy c 1 max v 1 min. Bin trinh nm ca nhit c 2 max v 2 min v thay i theo khu vc. Bin nm ca nhit rt khc nhau gia cc khu vc: 10-14C BB, 9-13C BTB, 4-8C NTB, TN v chi con 3-4C NB. Nhit mt t thp nht l -6,4C (Sa Pa). Nhit mt t cao nht l 74,7C (Bun Ma Thut). Nhit mt t thp nht tuyt i cao hn ca KK chi 1 - 2C nhng nhit cao nht tuyt i li cao hn ca KK trn di 30C.
Ma
Lng ma trung binh nm nc ta vo khong 700 5000 mm, ph bin khong 1400 2400 mm. Cc trung tm ma nhiu: Sin H (Lai Chu), Bc Quang (H Giang), Mong Ci (Qung Ninh), Ky Anh (H Tinh), Tr My (Qung Nam), Bo Lc (Lm ng), Phu Quc (Kin Giang) Cc trung tm ma t: Bo Lc (Cao Bng), Na Sm ng ng (Lng Sn), Yn Chu (Sn La), Sng Ma (Sn La), Mng Xen (Ngh An), Ayunpa (Gia Lai), Nha H (Ninh Thun) v Phan Thit (Binh Thun). Nhin chung, lng ma nm min Bc tri hn min Nam. Lng ma phn b khng ng u trong cc thng
S ngy ma S ngy ma trung binh nm nc ta l 60 220. Bin trinh nm v s ngy ma tng t ca lng ma. Ma ma l thi gian co lng ma TB trn 100 mm, ph bin:: + TB, B: thng IV - V, cao im vo thng VII - VIII, kt thuc vo thng IX - X. + BBB: thng IV - V, cao im vo thng VII - VIII, kt thuc vo thng X XI. + BTB: thng V - VI, cao im vo thng IX - X, kt thuc vo thng XI - XII. + NTB: thng VIII - IX, cao im vo thng X - XI, kt thuc vo thng XII. + Cc NTB: thng IV - V, cao im vo thng VIII, kt thuc vo thng XI. + TN: thng IV - V, cao im vo thng VIII, kt thuc vo thng X - XI. + NB: thng V, cao im vo thng IX X, kt thuc vo thng XI.
m
m tuyt i TB nm khong 13 30 hpa, gim rt nhanh theo cao a l. TB thng khong 30 33 hpa, m cao vo ma he, thp vo ma ng m tng i TB nm min bc: 80 85%, NTBB, TN, NB: 77-78%. Bin trinh nm ca m tng i chu nh hng su sc ca ch ma. B, BBB, m tng i thp trong ma ng, tng cao vo ma he. BTB, NTB, m thp trong cc thng ma he v cao trong ma ng. TB, TN, NB m thp vo gia v cui ma ng v cao trong sut ma he.
Lng bc hi
Lng bc hi TB nm: 8001500mm, nhiu nht 2326 mm (Cam Ranh), t nht l 494mm Hong Lin Sn. Lng bc hi min Bc t hn min Nam, vng nui cao t hn vng thp. Bin trinh nm trn cc khu vc rt khc nhau: B, BBB, BTB v pha Bc NTB, lng bc hi thp vo ma ng v cao vo ma he. Ngc li, TN, cc NTB, NB, lng bc hi ma ng hn hn ma he. Chi s m t nm (A = R/E) khong 15. A 5 ti Bc Quang (7,69), Tr My (5,88) v A 1 ti Nha H (0,41), Cam Ranh (0,69), Phan Thit (0,79) v Nha Trang (0,96). Chi s m t min Bc cao hn min Nam, vng cao cao hn vng thp. Chi s m t co bin trinh nm kh ro rt. T XII III ph bin trn c nc 1. T thng V-XI: 1. c bit, trn khu vc BTB v NTB, chi s m t thng VI, VII, VIII nhiu ni 1 do nh hng ca gio Ty kh nong.
Phn vng kh hu Vit Nam:

Kh hu ch yu phn hoa v ti nguyn nhit v ti nguyn m. Vi vy, h thng phn v trong s phn vng kh hu Vit Nam co 2 cp: 1- Min kh hu: Min kh hu lin kt cc vng co s ng nht v ti nguyn nhit theo cc chi tiu sau y: Bin nm ca nhit , Lng bc x tng cng TB nm, S gi nng TB nm; 2. Vng kh hu: Phn nh vng kh hu nhm tch bit cc a phng trn cng min kh hu co s ng nht v ch ma, m theo mt hoc c hai chi tiu sau y: Thi gian xy ra ma ma; Ba thng ma nhiu nht; C th: Ranh gii gia hai min kh hu trn lanh th Vit Nam c xc nh bng cc chi tiu sau y: - Bin nm ca nhit bng 9C; - Lng bc x tng cng TB nm bng 140kcal/cm2; - S gi nng TB nm bng 2000 gi; Ranh gii gia cc vng kh hu c xc nh bng di phn cch gia cc a phng co ma ma hoc thi ky cao im ca ma ma khc nhau.
Chng III. BIN I KH HU
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
Chng III. BIN I KH HU 3.1. Lch s bin i kh hu ton cu 3.2. Cc qu trinh vt l ca bin i kh hu 3.3. Bin i kh hu ton cu 3.4. Bin i kh hu Vit Nam 3.5. Kch bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam
3.1. Lich s v bin i khi hu toan cu Nhng bin ng t nhin co th gy ra bin ng kh hu. Khoi bi ca nui la ngn BXMT, lm lnh mt t mt thi gian di. Mt nui la phun ra co th lm nhit TB tri t gim i khong 0,3%, Nhng thay i ca phn b nhit t mt tri, thay i ca KNK cung nh cc bi khoi trong KQ a to ra nhng thi ky bng h v thi ky m ln ca kh hu tri t. thi ky khng bng h, khong 125.000 130.000 nm trc cng nguyn (TCN), nhit TB bn cu Bc cao hn thi ky tin cng nghip 2oC. Thi ky bng h cui cng khong 18.000 nm TCN v kt thuc vo khong 10.000 15.000 nm TCN. Cch y khong 12.000 nm co s m ln ng k n khong 10.500 nm TCN. Tip o Tri t lnh i t ngt di khong 500 nm, ri cung t ngt chm dt v m tr li. Khong 5000 6000 nm trc, nhit khng kh bn cu Bc cao hn hin nay 1-3C. Bt u t th ky XIV, chu u tri qua mt thi ky bng h nho keo di khong vi trm nm. Mt s nh khoa hoc cho rng s thay i ca quy o tri t co th l nguyn nhn gy ra bin i kh hu trong cc thi ky a cht.
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
T khong gia th ky XIX, nh co o c chnh xc bng cc dng c, chung ta mi co c s liu nh lng chi tit v BKH trong hn mt th ky qua. Kt qu o c v nghin cu cho thy nhit khng kh TB ton cu trong th ky XX a tng ln 0,6oC ; trn t lin, nhit tng nhiu hn trn bin v thp ky 1990 l thp ky nong nht trong thin nin ky va qua (IPCC, 2001). Cc nh khoa hoc u nht tr rng, tinh trng nong nht xy ra trong 50 nm cui ca th ky XX l do hu qu hot ng ca con ngi. Sang nhng nm u th ky XXI, nhit tri t tip tc tng. Nong nht l nm 2003: Nhit TB ton cu nm 2003 tng 0,46oC so vi TB thi ky 1971-2000, l nm m th ba k t nm 1861. Trong o, chun sai nhit Bc bn cu l + 0,59oC v Nam bn cu l + 0,32oC. Nm m th hai l 2002 vi chun sai nhit l + 0,48oC. K t nm 1861 n 2003 co 5 nm m nht c xp th t nh sau: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2001 v 1995. Ro rng, 5 nm nong nht ca trn 100 nm qua u ri vo 10 nm gn y.
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
Ti Alaska, nhit a tng 1,5C so vi TBNN, lp bng vinh cu gim 40% v hng nm lp bng thng dy 1,2m chi con khong 0,3m (mong hn 4 ln so vi TBNN). Hin tng ma, cung co nhng bin ng ng k, tng 5 10% trong th ky XX trn lc a bn cu Bc v gim mt s ni, tuy xu th khng ro rt nh nhit . Hin tng ma ln tng ln cc vi TB v cao ca bn cu Bc. Mc nc TB ca i dng cung tng ln 10 25 cm (TB 12mm/nm trong th ky XX) do bng tan v gian n nhit i dng. T cui nhng nm 1960, phm vi lp ph tuyt gim khong 10%. dy ca lp bng bin Bc Cc trong thi ky t cui ma h n u ma thu gim xung khong 40% trong vi thp ky gn y. Cng vi xu th tng nhit l s phn b cc d thng ca nhit : trong nhng nm gn y xut hin hng lot ky lc v nhit cao v thp. Khong 20 nm gn y, ngi ta a pht hin thy mi quan h gia cc d thng kh hu vi hin tng ENSO.
3.2. Cac qua trinh vt ly cua bin i khi hu Bc xa mt tri: BXMT l ngun nng lng duy nht chi phi kh hu tri t. Lng BXMT c tri t hp th lun cn bng vi lng BX do tri t pht ra. Theo nh lut Stefan Boltzmann, cng thc biu th s cn bng bc x ca tri t co th c vit nh sau: S l BXMT trn mt n v din tch b mt ria ngoi tri t; A - l albedo (sut phn x) ca tri t; - l hng s Stefan Boltzmann, bng 8,2. 10-11cal/cm2; Ts nhit b mt tri t; Te l nhit TB ton cu khi khng co hiu ng nh knh; Thnk l hiu ng nh knh. T cc cng thc trn cho thy nhit b mt t bin i khi thay i cng BXMT, albedo hoc hiu ng nh knh. Gi tr ca S c tnh ton c t s liu quan trc bng v tinh bng 342w/m2. Albedo c ly trung binh bng 0,3. T cng thc ta tnh c nhit TB ton cu ca tri t Te = 255oK (18oC). Nh vy theo cng thc (2), nu khng co hiu ng nh knh tc l Thunk =0 thi nhit b mt tri t Ts = Te = -18oC. Trn thc t nhit TB b mt tri t Ts = 15oC (288oK). Nh vy phn chnh lch T = 288o 255o = 33o l do hiu ng nh knh t cc cht kh t nhin trong kh quyn to ra. S cn bng ny a tn ti t rt lu cho n u th ky XX
Chng III. BIN I KH HU Can cn bc xa b mt t: lm ro hn vai tro ca KNK trong h thng kh hu ta xem xet phng trinh cn bng BX ca mt t: B = (I. sin(h) + i)(1 A) Ee (3.3) B l cn cn BX ca mt t; I l cng BX trc tip ca MT; h l cao mt tri; i l cng BX khuch tn; A l albedo; Ee - l BX hu hiu ca tri t Trong (3.3): Is = (I. sin(h) + i) l cng BX ton phn ca MT i ti mt t; (I. sin(h) + i)(1 A) l cng BX hp th ca mt t t BXMT. y l phn BX song ngn. Gi tr BX hu hiu: Ee = Es Ea (3.4) Es l BX ring ca mt t; Ea l bc x nghch ca KQ. y l phn bc x song di.
Bc x ring ca tri t co hng t mt t ln khng trung lm cho mt t mt nhit (co du ). Tri li, BX nghch ca KQ co hng t trn xung lm tng nhit mt t (du +). BX ring ca mt t co gi tr tuyt i ln hn BX nghch ca KQ nn BX hu hiu thng co du () tc l mt t b mt nhit. Gi s phn BX song ngn khng thay i, nu hiu ng nh knh tng ln se keo theo s gia tng kh nng hp th ca KQ i vi c BXMT v BXMD. T o se gia tng cng BX nghch ca KQ xung mt t. Kt qu l BX hu hiu se gim, co nghia l lm gim lng nhit thot ra ngoi khong khng vu tr. Mt t se t mt nhit v m hn.

Bc xa ring cua mt t: B mt tri t pht x nh mt vt en tuyt i. Theo nh lut StefanBoltzmann, vi Te = 288oK, ta co Es = 0,6cal/cm2.phut (418,6w/m2). Bc xa nghich cua khi quyn: KQ, mt mt hp th trc tip BXMT ( khong 15 % lng BXMTi ti tri t), mt khc hp th BX ring ca mt t, qua o c t nong. Ngoi ra, KQ con nhn c nhit thng qua qu trinh truyn nhit t mt t v nhit ngng kt hi nc trong KQ. KQ cung pht x BX song di (hng ngoi) ra khong khng vu tr (~ 30 %) v xung mt t (70%). Phn BX pht tr li mt t goi l BX nghch ca KQ. Phn ln BX nghch ca KQ (90 99 %) c mt t hp th. S tng ln ca lng BX nghch ca KQ (Ea) do s gia tng ca nng cc KNK c xc nh bng lng BX cng bc. o l s thay i trong cn cn BX ca mt t gia lng BX ti t mt tri di dng Bx song ngn v lng BX pht ra t mt t di dng BX song di Theo IPCC, BX nghch ca KQ tng ln do s gia tng hm lng cc KNK trong KQ trong thi ky 1750- 2000 a to ra lng BX cng bc c xc nh bng 2,43w/m2, trong o t kh CO2 l 1,46 w/m2, t kh CH4 l 0,48 w/m2, t cc halocarbon l 0,34w/m2 v t N2O l 0,15w/m2. BX nghch ca KQ ln nht xch o v nhit i. Cng ln vi cao cng b Hi nc co vai tro quan trong nht trong vic hp th BXMD (khong 60%) v pht x tr li mt t trong thnh phn BX nghch ca KQ mt di ph rt rng ca BX hng ngoi. Kh CO2 v O3 cung hp th BX hng ngoi (khong 20%), song chi trong phm vi hp ca ph nng lng BXMT (khong 7-15 ).
Bc xa hu hiu: Bc x hu hiu ca mt t c xc nh bng cng thc: Ee= Es-Ea Nu coi BXMD khng i (tc nhit b mt t khng i (15oC)) thi Ee chi ph thuc vo Ea, Khi Ea gim, BX hu hiu tng, b mt t b mt nhit v lnh i nhiu hn. Tri li, nu BX nghch ca KQ (Ea) tng ln, BX hu hiu ca mt t gim i, b mt t b mt nhit t hn, do o m ln. Cng BX hu hiu vng vi cao ln hn vng vi thp, trn nui cao ln hn vng ng bng.
Cng bc x hu hiu ti l nghch vi lng my.
Chng III. BIN I KH HU 3.3. Bin i khi hu toan cu 3.3.1. Cac khi nha kinh (KNK) va hiu ng nha kinh (HUNK) MT pht ra BX song ngn (BX nh sng v BX t ngoi). 25% BXMT b KQ hp th, 25% b my phn x tr li vo khng trung, phn BX con li ti mt t. Tri t co nhit TB khong 15oC, nn BX mt t l BX song di (BX hng ngoi). Nhiu kh c ty l nho trong KQ nhng co nh hng ln n BXKQ (H2O, CO2, O3, CFC v.v), trong o co nhng kh vn co sn trong KQ nh CO2, H2O v.v, mt s khc (CFCs (chlorofluorocarbon-CFC), l do con ngi to ra. Cc cht kh ny cho BX song ngn t MT chiu qua, nhng hp th BX song di t MD pht ra v pht tr li MD lm cho KQ v MD m ln, ging nh KK trong nh knh. Vi vy, hiu ng ny cung c goi l HUNK ca tri t, cc kh o c goi l cc KNK. Nh co HUNK, tri t co nhit TB l 15oC, con trong trng hp khng co HUNK, nhit TB ca mt t se vo khong 18oC. Cc KNK v HUNK a tn ti t khi co KQ. S tng nng ca KNK lm nong tng i lu v ngui tng binh lu, l nguyn nhn ch yu gy ra s BDKH ton cu hin nay. Cc KNK t nhin vn co nng n nh trong KQ v nh o kh hu tri t cung n nh. Chi t sau thi ky tin cng nghip (1750) n nay, nng nhiu loi KNK trong KQ mi tng ln.
Xem xt tng loai khi nha kinh (KNK) Kh ccbnc (CO2)

Kh CO2 l loi KNK chim ti mt na khi lng cc KNK v ong gop ti 60% trong vic lm tng nhit KQ T 1750 n nay, nng kh CO2 trong KQ a tng 28% ch yu do vic t cc loi nhin liu hoa thch nh than, du, kh v ph hy cc rng cy. t than thi ra nhiu kh CO2 nht, sau o l t du(xng), t v cc phng tin giao thng dng xng, du lm tng lng CO2 trong KQ tng t 0,5 n 1% mi nm. Lng CO2 tng t 280ppm* trong thi ky tin cng nghip a tng n 370 ppm vo nm 2000. S thay i cy trng trn mt t, ph rng canh tc, lm nh , cung dn n s tng kh CO2 trong KQ. Khi t cc cy ci hoc ph rng, cy ci mc nt u sinh ra kh CO2 Rng con co tc dng hp th kh CO2 trong KK. Din tch rng suy gim cung lm gim kh nng hp th kh CO2 ca b hp th ny. nc ta, din tch rng t nhin b suy gim t 43% nm 1945, nay chi con 30%. Phn ln lng kh CO2 pht thi ra do ph rng l vng nhit i. Kh CO2 thi ra c tch li trong KQ phn ln, mt phn khc i vo i dng.
Kh mtan
Kh mtan (CH4) quan trong th hai, ch yu t s phn gii ym kh ca cy co trong cc m ly, rung lua, phn suc vt, cc bai rc thi, t cc mo than, cc ging khoan du hoc do ro ri cc ng dn kh. Kh mtan trong KQ c bit n t nhng nm 1940, nhng chi n cui nhng nm 1960 mi co nhng o c chnh thc. Nng kh mtan hin nay a tng ln ti 145% so vi thi ky tin CN. Khong mt na lng tng ca kh mtan trong KQ l do con ngi to ra.
zn trong tng i lu
Khc vi cc kh nh knh khc, vai tro ca zn (O3) ph thuc vo cao. S gim zn trong tng binh lu lm gim l chn bo v cc sinh vt trn tri t khoi cc tia BX t ngoi t MT. Tuy nhin, i vi tng i lu vic tng zn li co hi v ozn trong tng i lu l mt loi KNK th ba sau kh ccbnic v mtan. zn c to ra trong t nhin cung nh do cc hot ng ca con ngi nh t ng c t, xe my hoc cc nh my in. Nh vy, i vi kh zn, con ngi phi ng trc hai th thch: Phi tim cch tng zn trong tng binh lu bo v trc BX t ngoi, mt khc li phi gim nng zn trong tng i lu hn ch HUNK. L thng zn trong tng binh lu khng gy ra hiu ng lm nong ln ton cu nh zn di thp. Ngc li, s suy gim zn trong tng binh lu con lm gim nhit tri t.
xit nit
xit nit (N2O) l mt loi KNK. T nhng mu bot kh ly c trong bng, ngi ta thy nng N2O a tng khong 8% t u th ky n nay v hin ang tip tc tng. Ngun N2O ch yu l do t cc loi nhin liu, s dng phn hoa hoc, sn xut cc cht hoa hoc, khi tiu th nhin liu, t sinh khi, ph rng v.v Nhng hot ng ca con ngi lm tng 15% lng xit nit vn co trong KQ Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) CFC hon ton l sn phm do con ngi to ra trong ky thut lm lnh nh: t lnh, iu hoa khng kh, cc loai my lnh, cc loi binh xt my phm, lm cht ty ra linh kin in t v.v Nng CFCs quan st c trong vi chc nm nay a tng kh mnh, thi gian tn ti ca chung li lu, nn co nh hng ln n kh hu. Lng CFC khng nhiu nhng xu hng tng ln a lm cc nh kh hu lo ngi. Do c tnh nguy him ph hoi tng zn, CFCs l mt cht nm trong danh sch hng u b cm trong cc hip c v bo v tng zn v, do o, cung hn ch c tc ng i vi kh hu. T nm 1995, nng ca loi kh CFC a tng chm li hoc co xu hng gim. T nm 2010 tr i, se ngng sn xut cc cht CFC trn ton th gii theo Ngh nh th Montran.
Hi nc
Hi nc (H2O) l mt loi kh nh knh. Hi nc cung ong vai tro quan trong nh kh ccbnic v mtan trong vic iu chinh nhit tri t thng qua vic to thnh my. Nhng m my do hi nc to ra ngn cn BXMD thot ra ngoi khng trung v lm tng nhit tri t. Tuy nhin, khng nh cc kh khc tn ti lu di trong kh quyn, hi nc hinh thnh v mt i nhanh chong khi to thnh my v ma. Lng hi nc trong t nhin a kh n nh (tng lng hi nc trong kh quyn hu nh khng thay i), nn vai tro ca chung trong vic lm tng nhit vi bin i kh hu vn ang c nghin cu.
Khai quat tinh hinh bin i khi hu toan cu 1. S nong ln ton cu ca h thng kh hu tri t hin nay vi mc
0,74oC trong 100 nm qua (1906-2005) l cha tng co: Xu th tng nhit trong 50 nm gn y l 0,13oC/1 thp ky, gp 2 ln xu th tng ca 100 nm qua. D tnh, n cui th ky 21, nhit trung binh ton cu se tng 2,0 4,5oC so vi cui th ky 20. Thin tai v cc hin tng thi tit cc oan gia tng, trong o co ENSO, nng nong, bo, lt 2. Mc nc bin trung binh ton cu a tng vi ty l trung binh 1,8mm/nm trong thi ky 1961-2003 v tng nhanh hn vi ty l 3,1mm/nm trong thi ky 1993-2003. Tng cng, mc nc bin trung binh ton cu a tng ln 0,17m trong 100 nm gn y. D tnh n cui th ky 21, mc nc bin trung binh se tng 0,18 0,59m so vi cui th ky 20.
S gia tng KNK

T khong 1800, hm lng kh CO2 bt u tng ln v t 379ppm (phn triu) vo nm 2005, nghia l tng khong 31% so vi thi ky tin CN, vt xa mc kh CO2 t nhin trong khong 650 nghin nm qua. Hm lng cc KNK khc nh kh mtan (CH4), xit nit (N2O) cung tng ln lt t 715ppb (phn ty) v 270ppb trong thi ky tin CN ln 1774ppb (151%) v 319ppb (17%) vo nm 2005. Ring cc cht kh chlorofluoro cacbon (CFCs) va l kh nh knh vi tim nng lm nong ln ton cu ln gp nhiu ln kh CO2, va l cht ph hy tng zn binh lu, chi mi co trong kh quyn do con ngi sn xut ra k t khi cng nghip lm lnh, hoa my phm pht trin.
- T 1840 n 2004, tng lng pht thi kh CO2 ca cc nc giu chim 70% tng lng pht thi kh CO2 ton cu.
Chng III
BIN I KH HU
Bin i khi hu khu vc chu A va ng Nam A

Dn s Chu chim trn 60% dn s th gii, ti nguyn thien nhin a chu nhiu p lc v kh nng thch ng i vi BKH ca phn ln linh vc Chu l thp. Nn kinh t-xa hi nhiu nc ph thuc vo ti nguyn thin nhin nh nc, rng, tho nguyn, ng co chn th v thy sn. Mc bin i ca cc yu t kh hu khc nhau nhiu gia cc vng v cc quc gia. nhy cm i vi BKH ca mt s linh vc d b tn hi v tc ng ca BKH i vi mt s vng la chon Chu c trinh by trong cc bng 3, 4 v 5.
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BIN I KH HU
Cng vi s pht trin nhanh ca kinh t cc nc ang pht trin, ty trong trn con thay i v lng kh pht thi co lin quan n nng lng, cng nghip se tng ln rt nhanh trong 20 nm ti.
Ti Vit Nam, mc NBD cao se lm ngp phn ln khu vc ng dn c thuc cc vng ca sng Hng v sng Cu Long vo nm 2070, e doa nghim trong sn xut lua v an ninh lng thc. Nu mc NBD cao 90 cm vo nm 2070 thi khong 500.000 ha chu th sng Hng, 1.500.000 2.000.000 ha B sng Cu Long v khong 400.000 ha rng c v m ly pha Nam b ngp. Mn xm nhp v tc ng ti khong 2.200.000 2.500.000 ha. Nhiu thnh ph, th xa, nh cng Hi Phong, cng Vung Tu v nhiu ni thuc tinh Bn Tre b ngp. Nh vy, mi tc ng tim tng rt ln ca BDKH lin quan s dng cao mc nc bin dn n ngp lt, xoi l b bin, xm nhp mn su vo t lin v tng cng mi e doa ca nc dng do bao c nh gi l rt nghim trong.
Cac kich ban bin i khi hu toan cu

Xy dng cc kch bn v BDKH m trong tm l cc kch bn v pht thi KNK l nhim v quan trong hng u ca IPCC. Cc kch bn v KNK noi ring, BDKH ton cu noi chung, cho th ky XXI a c hon thin. IPCC a nu ra 4 ho (A1,A2,B1,B2) vi 40 kch bn khc nhau v KNK trong th ky XXI. Trong nh gi tc ng ca BKH IPCC a s dng 5 dng kch bn trn phm vi ton cu cung nh cc vng lanh th khc nhau, o l: Kch bn v kinh t, xa hi; Kch bn v s dng t v lp ph; Kch bn v mi trng; Kch bn v kh hu; Kch bn v nc bin dng
Kch bn v KTXH c s dng chnh trong xy dng cc kch bn v pht thi KNK hng vo mt s i tng cn thit co lin quan nh dn s, hot ng kinh t, cu truc thng tng, chun mc xa hi, m hinh thay i ky thut... Kch bn v s dng t v lp ph c xy dng phc v cho nghin cu v an ton lng thc Kch bn v MT bao gm nhng thay i thnh phn kh trong KQ: CO2, zn tng binh lu, cc thnh phn acid hoa, tia t ngoi; mc s dng, kh nng v cht lng ngun nc; nhim nc bin Kch bn v kh hu l kch bn nong ct c rut ra t cc m hinh kh hu ton cu (GCMs). Da trn cc kch bn chung ny, ta co th iu chinh cho cc quc gia, cc vng lanh th nho mt cch khoa hoc bng phng php h thp quy m (downscaling) Kch bn v NBD (co tnh n c s st lun t) l c trng s dng chnh, cung c rut ra ch yu t m hinh kep kh quyn-i dng. nh gi tc ng ca BKH v xy dng bin php thch ng cho cc khu vc nho, cc kch bn v kh hu v NBD c quan tm trc tin.
n cui th ky XXI, hm lng CO2 trong KQ t 540 970ppm so vi 280ppm trong thi ky tin CN v 368ppm vo nm 2000. ng dng cc kch bn pht thi KNK cc m hinh kh hu khc nhau cho thy, nhit b mt TB ton cu se tng t 1,4 n 5,8C vo thi ky 1990-2100. Quan trong l ty sut tng nhit nh trn l cha tng xy ra, t nht l trong thi ky 10.000 nm trc. ng chu l s nong ln nhiu cc khu vc pha Bc ca Bc My, pha Bc v Trung . Ngc li, nong t hn pha Nam v ng Nam trong ma he v pha Nam ca Nam My trong ma ng. Nhit b mt tng ln t Bc i Ty Dng v quanh vng bin Nam cc. Lng ma nm TB ton cu c nh gi l tng ln trong th ky XXI cng vi hin tng nong ln ton cu, song i vi tng khu vc co th tng hoc gim 5 n 20%. Hng nm, s bin ng rt ln xy ra cc vng c d bo lng ma trung binh tng. Hin tng nong ln ton cu gy ra s gian n i dng v tan bng cc v trn nui cao, dn ti mc nc bin dng cao. Trong 100 nm tr li y, mc nc bin trung binh tng khong 1-2mm/nm.
Theo bng 3.2, vo nm 2050, nhit tng ln 0.8 2.6C v mc nc bin dng ln 5 32cm so vi nm 1990. Mc tng ca cc c trng yu t ny vo nm 2100 l 1.4 5.8C v 9 88cm. Mc d mc tng nhit cung nh mc NBD ln khng ng u gia cc khu vc cung nh gia cc chu lc, song cc bin i o ro rng l mt thch thc rt ln i vi moi hot ng KTXH.
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3.4. Thc t Bin i khi hu Vit Nam

Trong khong 50 nm qua (1951-2000), nhit TB nm Vit Nam a tng ln 0,7C. Trn tng a im, xu th bin i ca lng ma TB nm trong 9 thp ky va qua (1911-2000) khng ro rt theo cc thi ky v trn cc vng khc nhau: co giai on tng ln v co giai on gim xung. Theo s liu quan trc trong khong 50 nm qua cc trm Ca ng v Hon Du, mc nc bin trung binh a tng ln khong 20 cm, ph hp vi xu th chung ca ton cu. Mt biu hin d thng trong bi cnh BKH ton cu l t khng kh lnh gy ret m, ret hi keo di 38 ngy trong thng 1 v thng 2 nm 2008 gy thit hi ln cho sn xut nng nghip. Vo nhng nm gn y, s cn bao co cng mnh nhiu hn, quy o bao dch chuyn dn v cc vi pha nam v ma bao kt thuc mun hn, nhiu cn bao co quy o di chuyn d thng hn. S ngy ma phn trung binh nm H Ni gim dn trong thp ky 19811990 v chi con gn mt na (15 ngy/nm) trong 10 nm gn y.
Chng II. KHAI QUAT KH HU VIT NAM
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C s xy dng kich ban BKH, nc bin dng

Xy dng cc kch bn cho th ky 21 l nhim v trong tm ca IPCC, do Nhm cng tc 1 (WGI) thc hin. nh gi nhng tc ng ca BDKH n cc i tng khc nhau ca t nhin, KTXH do Nhm cng tc 2 (WGII) thc hin Xy dng cc chin lc ng pho v gim nh BDKH trn phm vi ton cu do Nhm cng tc 3 (WGIII) thc hin. BDKH ph thuc ch yu vo mc pht thi KNK, tc l ph thuc vo s pht trin KTXH. Vi vy, cc kch bn BDKH c xy dng da trn cc kch bn pht trin KTXH ton cu. Con ngi a pht thi qu mc KNK vo KQ t cc hot ng khc nhau nh cng nghip, nng nghip, giao thng vn ti, ph rng, Do o, c s xc nh cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh l: (1) S pht trin KT quy m ton cu; (2) Dn s th gii v mc tiu dng; (3) Chun mc cuc sng v li sng; (4) Tiu th nng lng v ti nguyn NL; (5) Chuyn giao cng ngh; (6) Thay i s dng t;

IPCC a a ra 40 kch bn pht thi KNK trong th ky 21. CcKB ny c t hp thnh 4 KB gc l A1, A2, B1 v B2 vi cc c im sau:
- Kch bn gc A1: Kinh t pht trin nhanh; dn s tng t inh nm 2050 v sau o gim dn; hiu qu cc cng ngh mi; th gii co s tng ng v thu nhp v cch sng, Ho kch bn A1 c chia thnh 3 nhom da theo mc pht trin cng ngh: + A1FI: Tip tc s dng thi qu nhin liu hoa thch (KB pht thi cao); + A1B: Co s cn bng gia cc ngun nng lng (KB pht thi TB); + A1T: C s dng cc ngun nng lng phi ho thch (KB pht thi thp). Kch bn gc A2: Th gii khng ng nht, cc quc gia hot ng t cung t cp; dn s; kinh t pht trin theo nh hng khu vc; thay i v cng ngh v tc tng trng kinh t tnh theo u ngi chm (KB pht thi cao, tng ng vi A1FI). Kch bn gc B1: Kinh t pht trin nhanh nh A1 nhng co s thay i nhanh chong theo hng kinh t dch v v thng tin; dn s tng t inh vo nm 2050 v sau o gim dn; gim cng tiu hao nguyn vt liu, cc cng ngh sch v s dng hiu qu ti nguyn c pht trin; chu trong n cc gii php ton cu v n nh KTXH v MT (KB pht thi thp tng t nh A1T).
- Kch bn gc B2: Dn s tng lin tc nhng vi tc thp hn A2; chu trong n cc gii php a phng thay vi ton cu v n nh KTXH v MT; mc pht trin kinh t trung binh; thay i cng ngh chm hn v manh mun hn so vi B1 v A1 (KB pht thi trung binh, c xp cng nhom vi A1B).
IPCC khuyn co s dng cc KB pht thi c sp xp t thp n cao l B1, A1T (kch bn thp), B2, A1B (kch bnTB), A2, A1FI (kch bn cao). Cc nghin cu trong v ngoi nc v kch bn BDKH, NBD a c phn tch v tham kho xy dng kch bn BDKH cho Vit Nam, c th nh sau: 1) Ngoai nc: Bo co nh gi ln th hai (1995), ln th ba (2001) v ln th t (2007) ca IPCC Sn phm ca m hinh kh hu ton cu ca Vin NC Kh tng thuc Cc Kh tng Nht Bn Bo co v kch bn BDKH cho Vit Nam ca trng i hoc Oxford, Vng quc Anh S liu ca v tinh t nm 1993; Cc nghin cu gn y v nc bin dng ca th gii: Trung tm Thy triu Quc gia Australia; y ban Mc nc bin thuc Hi ng Nghin cu Mi trng t nhin, Vng quc Anh ;H thng quan trc mc nc bin ton cu; Trung tm mc nc bin ca trng i hoc Hawaii);... Tng hp ca IPCC v cc kch bn nc bin dng trong th ky 21 cc bo co nh gi nm 2001 v nm 2007.
Trong nc: Kch bn BKH nm 1994 Kch bn BKH c xy dng bng phng php t hp (phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1) v phng php chi tit hoa thng k cho VN v cc khu vc nho hn Kch bn BKH c xy dng cho d tho Thng bo ln hai ca VN cho Cng c khung ca LHQ v BDKH Kch bn BDKH xy dng bng phng php t hp (phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3) v phng php chi tit hoa thng k Kch bn BDKH cho khu vc VN c xy dng bng phng php ng lc S liu quan trc mc nc bin ti cc trm ca Vit Nam; Cc nghin cu ca Vit Nam v nc bin dng
Kich ban BKH, NBD cho Vit Nam La chon phng phap: Cc tiu ch la chon phng php xy dng KB BKH, NBD cho VN bao gm: (1) Mc tin cy; (2) chi tit; (3) Tnh k tha; (4) Tnh thi s; (5) Tnh ph hp a phng; (6) Tnh y ; v (7) Kh nng ch ng cp nht. Cui cng phng php t hp (MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3) v phng php chi tit hoa thng k a c la chon xy dng kch bn
1) Kich ban BKH Cc KB pht thi KNK c chon xy dng KB BDKH cho VN l KB pht thi thp (KB B1), KB pht thi TB ca nhom cc KB pht thi TB (KB B2) v KB pht thi TB ca nhom cc KB pht thi cao (KB A2). Cc KB BDKH i vi nhit v lng ma c xy dng cho 7 vng kh hu ca VN: TB, B, BBB, BTB, NTB, TN v NB. Thi ky dng lm c s so snh l 1980-1999 (cung l thi ky c chon trong Bo co nh gi ln th 4 ca IPCC).

a) V nhit :
Nhit ma ng co th tng nhanh hn nhit ma he tt c cc vng kh hu ca nc ta. Nhit cc vng kh hu pha Bc co th tng nhanh hn so vi cc vng kh hu pha Nam. Theo Kb pht thi thp (B1): Vo cui th ky 21, nhit TB nm cc vng kh hu pha Bc co th tng so vi TB thi ky 1980-1999 khong t 1,6 n 1,9oC v cc vng kh hu pha Nam tng t hn, chi khong t 1,1 n 1,4oC
b) V lng ma Lng ma ma kh co th gim hu ht cc vng kh hu ca nc ta, c bit l cc vng kh hu pha Nam. Lng ma ma ma v tng lng ma nm co th tng tt c cc vng kh hu.
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KCH BN BIN I KH HU
2) Kich ban nc bin dng Bo co ln th t ca IPCC c tnh mc NBD khong 26-59cm vo nm 2100 Cc kch bn NBD cho VN c tnh ton theo KB pht thi thp nht (B1), KB pht thi TB (B2) v KB pht thi cao nht (A1FI). Kt qu tnh ton theo cc KB cho thy vo gia th ky 21 mc nc bin co th dng thm 28 n 33cm v n cui th ky 21 t 65 n 100cm so vi thi ky 1980 - 1999.
3. Khuyn nghi KB BDKH, NBD cho Vit Nam Cc KB BDKH, NBD cho VN c xy dng theo cc KB pht thi KNK khc nhau l: thp (B1), trung bnh (B2) v cao (A2, A1FI).
KB pht thi thp (B1) m t mt th gii pht trin tng i hon ho theo hng t pht thi KNK nht, tc tng dn s rt thp, c cu kinh t thay i nhanh, cc thoa thun quc t c thc hin y v nghim tuc trn phm vi ton cu. Cc kch bn pht thi cao (A2, A1FI) m t mt th gii co tc tng dn s rt cao, chm i mi cng ngh (A2) hoc s dng ti a nng lng hoa thch (A1FI) . Vn con cha chc chn trong vic xc nh cc KB pht trin KTXH v kem theo o l lng pht thi KNK trong tng lai. Vi s tn ti cc im cha chc chn thi cc KB BDKH, NBD ng vi cc KB pht thi KNK cn trn hoc cn di u co mc tin cy thp hn so vi KB mc TB. Vi nhng l do nu trn, KB BDKH, NBD i vi VN c khuyn ngh s dng trong thi im hin nay l KB ng vi mc pht thi TB (B2).
KCH BN NC BIN DNG
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CHNG IV
TAC NG CUA BIN I KH HU
Chng IV. TAC NG CUA BiN I KH HU
CHNG IV. TAC NG CUA BIN I KH HU 4.1. Tac ng cua BKH n nng lm nghip va cac nganh lin quan 4.2. Tac ng cua BKH n cac khu vc chu yu 4.3. Mt s tac ng tich cc cua BKH
4.1.1. Tc ng ca BKH n ti nguyn nc Trn hai h thng sng sng Hng v sng M Cng dong chy nm bin
i t +4% n -19%, dong chy kit bin i ln hn, t -2% n -24%. Do lng ma ngy tng ln t 12-19%, lu lng inh lu tng ln ng k v chu ky ti din cung gim i. Vi inh lu trc y tng ng chu ky ti din 100 nm thi nay con 20 nm. Vi inh lu trc y co chu ky ti din 20 nm thi nay con 5 nm... tc l tn sut xut hin lu se ln hn. Cc sng va v nho, vo nm 2070 dong chy nm gim nhiu nht ng NB (29-33%), KV TB t Q. Binh n Q. Ngai (23-40,5%), Bc B v BTB (2-11,5%) v tng nhiu nht cc NTB (49%), Ty Nguyn (6-16%). Bc thot hi tim nng (PET) ln lt tng ln 3%, 8% tng ng tng nhit 10C v 2,50C.
4.1.2. Tac ng cua BKH i vi cy trng va san xut nng nghip Ranh gii ca cy trng nhit i dch chuyn v pha vng nui cao hn v cc vi pha Bc. Phm vi thch nghi ca cy trng nhit i b thu hp. Vo nhng nm 2070, cy nhit i vng nui co th sinh trng ln cao hn 100-550 m v tin xa hn 100-200 km v pha Bc so vi hin nay. Dao ng tht thng v cng ma, ngp ung v hn hn i vi cy trng se xy ra thng xuyn hn. Mt phn ng k din tch trng trot vng chu th sng M Cng v sng Hng b ngp mn do nc bin dng. Do thy in thiu nc, gi in tng lm cho chi ph ti tiu cho nng nghip tng ln
4.1.3 Tac ng cua BKH n h sinh thai rng NBD lm thu hp din tch rng ngp mn, tc ng xu n rng trm v rng trng trn t b nhim phen cc tinh NB; Ranh gii cc kiu rng nguyn sinh cung nh rng th sinh co th dch chuyn. Chng hn, rng cy g ho du se m rng ln pha Bc v ln cc ai cao hn. Rng rng l vi nhiu cy chu hn se pht trin mnh do m t gim v bc thot hn cy trng tng; Nhit cao kt hp vi nh sng di do thuc y qu trinh quang hp dn n tng cng qu trinh ng hoa ca cy xanh. Tuy vy, do bc thot hi tng ln nn m t se gim, kt qu l chi s tng trng sinh khi ca cy rng co th se gim i; Nguy c dit chng ca ng vt v thc vt gia tng, mt s loi thc vt quan trong nh trm hng, hong n, p mu, go o, lt hoa, g mt... se co th b suy kit; Nhit v mc kh hn gia tng lm tng nguy c chy rng, pht trin su bnh, dch bnh ph hoi cy rng.
Chng IV. TAC NG CUA BIN I KH HU

4.1.4 Tac ng cua BKH i vi ngun li han san va ngh ca Mc NBD lm cho ch thy l, thy hoa v thy sinh xu i. Cc qun xa sinh vt thay i cu truc v thnh phn, tr lng b sung gim sut nghim trong. D bo tr lng cc loi hi sn kinh t b gim sut t nht 1/3 so vi hin nay. Nhit tng lm cho ngun thy hi sn b phn tn. Cc loi c nhit i (vn kem gi tr kinh t tr c ng) tng ln, cc loi c cn nhit i (co gi tr kinh t cao) gim i hoc mt hn. C cc rn san h a phn b tiu dit. Cc loi thc vt ni, mt xch u tin ca chui thc n cho ng vt ni b hy dit hoc lm gim mnh ng vt ni, do o lm gim ngun thc n ch yu ca cc ng vt tng gia v tng trn. Hu qu l: (1) C di c n vng bin khc (di c th ng); (2) Gim khi lng thn ca c. Mi lin h hu c trong qun xa sinh vt b ph v, c bit i vi vng bin nng hoc ven b.

4.1.5 Tac ng cua BKH i vi nganh nng lng, giao thng vn tai NBD nh hng n cc dn khoan du c trn bin, vn chuyn du v kh vo cc nh my in chy kh xy dng ven bin , lm tng chi ph bo dng, duy tu, vn hnh cc my moc, phng tin... Cc cu cng, bn bai, nh kho c thit k theo mc nc bin hin ti se phi ci to li, thm ch phi di chuyn n ni khc. Tuyn ng st Bc Nam v cc tuyn giao thng nm st bin se b nh hng. NBD nh hng n cc trm, h thng ng dy phn phi in trn cc vng ven bin. Gia tng nng lng tiu hao cho bm tiu nc cc vng thp ven bin. Dong chy cc sng ln co cng trinh thy in cung thay i lm cho c ch iu tit nc ca cc cng trinh thy in cung chu nh hng ng k. Nhit tng nh hng n chi ph thng gio v lm mt hm lo khai thc than, tng chi ph lm mt v gim hiu sut, sn lng ca cc nh my in. Khi nhit tng, tiu th in cho sinh hot cung tng do thit b lm mt nh qut in, iu hoa nhit ... Trong cc ngnh cng nghip, thng mi, chi ph lm mt cung tng ln ng k. Nhit tng ln kem theo lng bc hi tng, kt hp vi s tht thng trong ch ma, dn n thay i lng d tr v lu lng ca cc h thy in, nh hng n kh nng sn xut v iu tit k hoch sn xut thy in.
BKH dn n s thay i mt vi tnh cht ca bao v ma bao: ma bao co xu hng chm hn, xy ra nhiu hn trn cc vi thp v c bit l cng bao mnh hn v ng i ca bao tht thng hn. S thay i trong tnh cht ca ma bao co nh hng trc tip n ngnh nng lng, trc ht n h thng dn khoan ngoi khi, h thng vn chuyn du v kh vo b, h thng truyn ti v phn phi in. Hng trm ct in cao th v hng ngn ct in h th se b e doa. Cng ma qu ln nh hng n qu trinh iu tit h cha, gy lu lt v e doa an ton cho vng h lu, c bit l vng ng bng sng Hng v sng Cu Long. Ma nhiu trong bao gy ngp ung, lm tng chi ph bm tiu. Ma nhiu co th gy lu quet, st l t, ph hy cc cng trinh p v h thng thy in ln nho dn n tng chi ph duy tri bo dng v sa cha. Lu, lt cung l nguyn nhn tim tng ph hy h thng h tng c s v h thng phn phi nng lng.
4.1.6 Tac ng cua BKH i vi y t va sc khoe con ngi Kh hu nong ln lm tng tc ng tiu cc i vi sc khoe con ngi. Thi tit cc oan dn n tng nguy c i vi tui gi, ngi mc bnh tim mch, bnh thn kinh. Ma ng min Bc se m dn ln dn ti thay i c tnh trong nhp sinh hoc ca con ngi. S tng ln ca thin tai nh bao, nc dng do bao, gio mnh, ma ln e doa i sng ca ngi dn trn nhiu vng nht l vng ven bin, vng nui. Tc ng qua cc ngun mang v truyn bnh: Nhiu bnh truyn nhim nguy him chu nh hng ca BKH: bnh st ret, bnh giun chi bch huyt, st xut huyt, vim nao Nht Bn, cc bnh vi rut hinh cy vn c coi l thnh hnh vng nhit i m. Nhit tng dn ti tng tc sinh trng v pht trin nhiu loi vi khun v cn trng, vt ch mang bnh. Cc loi bnh nhim khun d ly lan nh cc bnh thuc ng tiu hoa, h hp, hay cc bnh vi rut, co xu th tng ln v s lng ngi b nhim bnh cung nh t vong.

4.1.7 Tac ng cua nc bin dng n ngp lut Vi mc nc bin dng 1m se gy nn ngp lt c bit l ng bng sng Cu Long. Nc bin dng se nh hng ti vng t ngp nc ca b bin, nghim trong nht l cc khu vc rng c ca C Mau, tp. HCM, Vung Tu v khu vc bin Giao Thy (Xun Thy), Nam nh. Dn c vng ven bin se chu hu qu ca lu lt hng nm, c bit l dn c cc tinh chu th sng Cu Long. 4.1.8 Tac ng cua NBD i vi rng ngp mn Nc bin dng co th lm cho hng lot khu rng hin nay b chim ngp hn. Ma ng m hn thun li pht trin rng ngp mn ven bin Bc B song s gia tng kh nong v hn hn nh hng xu n pht trin ca rng ngp mn ven bin TB. Hin tng bi t v xoi l trn nhiu khu vc b bin se gia tng v song se tc ng xu n cc khu rng ngp mn.
4.1.9 Tac ng cua nc bin dng n cac thi va cng trinh Do nc bin dng lm mt din tch ln vng chu th sng Cu Long, sng Hng v ven bin TB, ni tp trung dn c v th b thu hp. Mt khc, nc dng trong bao se ln hn, uy hip mnh hn cc cng trinh xy dng vng ven bin v t thp. Nc bin dng se e doa cc cng trinh cng nghip, giao thng vn ti, quc phong c thit k theo mc nc hin ti. Lu ung tng ln co tc ng tiu cc n nn mong cng trinh. Bao lc tng oi hoi tng kh nng chu lc ca cng trinh dn ti tng gi thnh xy dng.

4.1.10. Tac ng cua BKH ln cac h sinh thai t nhin va a dang sinh hoc Cc loi se phi phn ng thch nghi vi cc iu kin kh hu mi. S thay i ca cc loi se lm thay i thnh phn v phn b a l ca cc h sinh thi ny. Ranh gii nhit ca cc h sinh thi lc a v nc ngot se dch chuyn v pha cc, ng thi cung dch chuyn ln cao hn. Khi y cc loi thc vt, ng vt nhit i co th pht trin cc vi cao hn hoc trn nhng vng nui vo cao nguyn cao hn trc. Tri li, cc loi a lnh b thu hp li, hoc phi di c i ni khc. Mt s loi se thch ng tt hn vi s bin i kh hu trong khi mt s khc khng thch ng ni se b suy thoi dn. Kh nng ca cc loi dch chuyn theo cc vng kh hu se ph thuc vo nhiu iu kin nh s pht dc v sinh trng trong cc iu kin kh hu mi, nhng iu kin dinh dng v.v... Nhin chung, nhiu loi sinh vt vn rt nhy cm vi cc iu kin kh hu, hoc a trong tinh trng nguy c cao, bin i kh hu se l mi nguy hi ln i vi chung.
Cc nh khoa hoc cho bit cho n nay trn tri t co khong 300.000 loi thc vt, 60.000 loi thn mm (nhuyn th), 30.000 loi tm cua (gip xc), trn 1.000.000 loi cn trng (!), 22.000 loi c, 4.300 loi ch nhi (lng c), 6.000 loi bo st, 9.000 loi chim, 4.600 loi ng vt co vu. Bin i kh hu vi nhng iu kin kh hu khc nghit hn nh hn hn, chy rng, lu lt v.v... se lm cho cc loi co kh nng b gim nhiu hn na. Cc vng nui cao cung se chu tc ng mnh. Nhiu loi co vu v loi chim se b gim do iu kin sinh sng khng thch hp, ngun dinh dng b gim. Bo v tnh a dng sinh hoc chnh l bo v ngun gen m thin nhin a ban tng cho tri t ny, cung chnh l duy tri cc h sinh thi truyn thng nhm chng li nhng s mt cn bng m him hoa kho co th lng ht trong cc iu kin kh hu mi.

4.2. Tac ng cua bin i khi hu n cac khu vc chu yu 4.2.1. Vung nui Ty Bc va ng Bc Tn s fron lnh gim i t nhiu so vi cc thp ky va qua. Ma fron lnh co th n mun hn v kt thuc sm hn Nhit cao hn, cc vnh ai nhit hoc tng nhit li v pha cc vng nui cao hn do o gii hn ca cc khu vc co nn nhit thp thu hp li. Lng ma ma ma nhiu ln, con lng ma ma kh tuy khng nhiu ln nhng dao ng mnh hn. Tnh tht thng ca ch ma tr nn su sc hn: cc ky lc cao v ma(lng ma ngy, lng ma thng...) u tng ln, ng thi vi vic gia tng tn s cc t ma ln din rng cung nh cc t hn hn khc lit. Ma phn tip tc gim i vo cc thng chuyn tip t ma kh sang ma ma. Lng bc hi trong cc nm ti co th cao hn thuc y thiu ht nc, gia tng cng v tn s hn hn. m tng i co th gim i so vi cc thp ky va qua, ch yu do nn nhit tng ln...

4.2.1. Vung nui Ty Bc va ng Bc
Phn phi dong chy co th thun li hn sau khi hon thnh v a vo vn hnh cc cng trinh thy li ln. Tuy vy, lu lt, nht l lu quet trn cc trin nui vn l mi e doa thng xuyn trong ma ma. Ngc li, vo ma kh, dong chy kit li gim i ng k, tn s hn hn gia tng. Ranh gii ca cy trng nhit i dch chuyn v pha vng nui cao hn v phm vi thch nghi ca cy trng nhit i thu hp li, lm suy gim mt s thc vt a lnh nh p mu, g o, cy dc liu. Nhit tng v m gim lm gim chi s tng trng sinh khi v lm tng nguy c chy rng. Noi chung, BKH dn n gim s a dng sinh hoc trong vng. Cn iu chinh cy trng v c lch thi v cy trng cho mt s vng co iu kin nhit m khng bo m chc chn cho yu cu sinh l ca mt s cy trng co gi tr kinh t cao. Nhit cao hn cung gop phn gia tng nguy c pht trin su bnh v hn hn vi tn sut cao hn, lm tng chi ph sn xut hoc lm gim nng sut v cht lng mt s cy trng ch yu. Trong hon cnh TB, B, nhit tng ln gy ra nhiu kho khn hn trong i sng hng ngy. Cc khu nghi mt nh Sa Pa, Bc H...co th mt i mt phn tnh hp dn i vi du khch v ngi co nhu cu nghi dng vng nui cao. Ngoi ra, vi nhit cao hn, tc sinh trng v pht trin ca nhiu loi vi khun v cn trng, vt ch mang bnh, s ngi b bnh hoc nhim khun cung tng ln.

4.2.2. Vung ng bng, Trung du Bc B va Quang Ninh
XTN hot ng trn bin ng v c XTN nh hng hoc b vo on b bin Bc B trong cc thp ky sp ti co th nhiu ln v tn s hoc tng ln v cng so vi cc thp ky qua. Ma bao trn di ven bin v ng bng Bc B co th tht thng hn v khng loi tr kh nng nh ma bao thng n trc thng VI v keo di n tn thng XI, thng XII. Cung nh vng nui Ty Bc, ng Bc, tn s fron lnh trn qua ng bng v di ven bin Bc B trong cc thp ky sp ti co th gim i (v tn s) hoc tht thng v v cng so vi cc thp ky va qua Nhit trong cc nm sp ti ph bin cao hn nn chung ca cc thp ky va qua. Nhit cao nht co th t ti nhng ky lc mi...Cc t nng nong, nht l cc t u ma ng bng, duyn hi Bc B co th khng thua kem my Bc Trung B v thi gian duy tri cung nh cng . Noi chung, ma lnh se bt lnh i, ngn hn v ma he se n sm hn, keo di hn v oi bc hn. Lng ma ma ma se nhiu ln, con lng ma ma kh dao ng mnh hn. Tnh tht thng ca ch ma v c ma ma ro rt hn, cc ky lc v lng ma ngy, lng ma thng, lng ma nm u cao hn v ngc li, thi gian khng ma hoc ma khng ng k co th di hn.

4.2.2. Vung ng bng, Trung du Bc B va Quang Ninh (tip)
Ma phn tip tc gim i gop phn gia tng hn hn vo cui ma ng, u ma xun. Lng bc hi cao hn, chi s kh hn tr nn cao hn, tn s hn hn tng ln. Mc nc bin tng ln khong 0,5-0,6cm/nm, cao hn cc thp ky va qua. Dong chy kit co th gim, dong chy lu co th tng. Ngun nc khan him hn, gy nhiu kho khn cho sinh hot v sn xut. Thi gian thch nghi ca mt s cy trng nhit i rut ngn i do o vai tro ca sn xut v ng tr nn khim tn. Chi ph sn xut cho mt n v sn phm tng ln do nhu cu ti thng xuyn hn v thi gian chng hn di hn. Nc bin dng ln va thu hp din tch rng ngp mn va a thy triu xm nhp su hn vng ng bng Bc B. NBD ln oi hoi phi nng cp cc cng trinh bin, giao thng, cu cng ven bin v trn cc o. Thiu nc, iu kin v sinh khng c m bo, nng nong gia tng...chc chn dn n pht sinh nhiu dch bnh, nht l dch bnh ma he.

4.2.3. Vung ng bng duyn hai Bc Trung b va Nam Trung b XTN nh hng TB co th tng ln v s lng v mnh ln cng , ma bao co th thay i Tn sut KKL ti TB co th t i, cng yu hn nh hng t n NTB. Ma co khng kh lnh se ngn hn. Nhit se cao hn. Ma gio ty kh nong co th n sm hn v kt thuc mun hn. Ky lc ca nhit cao v thi gian nng nong keo di co th c nng ln, trong khi ky lc nhit thp vn se c duy tri lu di. Ma lnh cc tinh BTB se ngn i v gii hn pha nam ca khu vc hot ng ca khng kh lnh se rut ngn dn ln pha Bc. Cc hin tng lnh gi, sng mui t xy ra Lng ma trong ma ma se tng ln nhng li gim lng ma trong ma kh. Cc trung tm ma ln nh Ky Anh, Tr My, Ba T ... v cc trung tm t ma nh Tng Dng Ninh Thun li tr nn ro rt hn.

4.2.3. Vung ng bng duyn hai Bc Trung b va Nam Trung b (tip)
Ma ma dn dp vo cc thng thu ng. Ma kh tip tc tn ti t XII -I cho n VIII-IX , thng V-VI co th tr thnh cc thng nong thng xuyn nh NTB. cc tinh pha bc BTB ma phn co th tr nn him hoi hn. Cc ky lc v lng ma ngy, lng ma thng v lng ma nm nng cao. Ngc li tinh trng hn hn se tr nn thng xuyn v khc lit hn. Lng bc hi cao hn gop phn gia tng chi s kh hn v cng hn hn. NBD ln vi tc 0,5-0,6 cm/nm trong cc thp ky sp ti. Dong chy nm gim i, dong chy lu ln hn chut t, dong chy kit se gim i. C cu cy trng v c c cu thi v cn phi c iu chinh theo hng ph hp vi nn nhit cao hn. Chi ph sn xut cho mt n v sn phm nng nghip tng ln do nhu cu ti cao hn v thi gian chng hn di hn. NBD va thu hp din tch khu dn c sng ven bin va tng kh nng xoi l b bin Nhit tng, ngun nc suy gim cung l nguyn nhn to nn nhiu kho khn cho cuc sng binh thng, thm ch gop phn gia tng dch bnh, nht l dch bnh ma nong.

4.2.4. Vung Ty Nguyn XTN vn co nh hng n TN nht l vng gip gii vi NTB. Khng loi tr kh nng nhng cn bao mnh b vo NTB v tip tc tin su vo TN Nhit trong cc thp ky ti ph bin cao hn cc thp ky va qua. Vi xu th tng ca nhit , cc vnh ai nhit hoc tng nhit li v pha cc vng nui cao hn. Ma nong cc vng nui va v thp di thm v ma lnh trn cc vng nui va v cao thu hp li. Lng ma ma ma se nhiu ln v lng ma ma kh dao ng mnh hn. Tnh bt n nh trong ch ma se tng ln. Cc ky lc v lng ma ngy, lng ma thng, lng ma nm tip tc tng ln trong khi cc t hn hn v na cui ma ng cng gay gt hn. Ma ma cung nh ma kh tr nn tht thng v thi ky bt u, thi ky kt thuc v c thi ky cao im.

4.2.4. Vung Ty Nguyn (tip) Lng bc hi trong trong cc thp ky ti cung tng ln gop phn gia tng tinh trng kh hn trong cc thng u nm. Dong chy nm trn cc sng gim i so vi cc thp ky trc, ch yu do gim dong chy kit. Lu lt, lu quet vn l mi e doa thng xuyn. Tinh trng kh hn ngy cng gt gao, ngun nc dng cho sinh hot v sn xut trong ma kh trn hu ht cc vng cung ngy cng khan him. Sn xut nng nghip phi co nhiu thay i thch ng vi mi trng nhit cao hn v ma tht thng hn. Sn xut cc cy cng nghip co gi tr kinh t cao nh c ph, cao su,... oi hoi phi gia tng chi ph v do o, gi thnh sn phm cung cao hn. Rng na nhit i ca TN nh thng, p mu,... v cc cy a lnh khc co th mt i mt phn din tch ng k do s chuyn dch cc vnh ai tng nhit v pha nui cao. Nhit cao hn to iu kin pht sinh v pht trin nhiu loi vi khun, dch bnh cho cy trng, vt nui v c c dn sinh sng TN

4.2.5. Vung Nam B XTN khng thay i nhi. Ma XTN co th tr nn bt n nh hn. Khng loi tr kh nng mt s XTN b vo NB sm hn, vo cc thng IX, X, XI, Nhit cao hn, nng nong vo cc thng u nm co th tr nn gay gt hn, lm gia tng thm cng hn hn. Lng ma ma ma nhiu ln v lng ma ma kh dao ng nhiu hn. Thay i nhiu nht trong ch ma co th l cng ma. Cc ky lc v lng ma ngy hay lng ma cc t ma ln co th tng ln. Lng bc hi tng ln cng vi nhit , chi s kh hn c nm cao hn, nht l vo cc thng cui ma kh (IV, V). Mc nc bin tip tc dng ln vi tc khong 0,5 0,6 cm/mi nm, tr thnh yu t co bin i ng lo ngi nht Dong chy sng M Cng co xu th gim i, ch yu do dong chy kit gim i.
Chng IV. TAC NG CUA BIN I KH HU 4.2.5. Vung Nam B (tip)

Lng ma tuy khng thay i nhiu, nhng do ch ma tht thng hn nn ngun nc ma kh tr nn khan him hn, nht l vo nhng nm ma ma (trc o) chm dt sm v ma ma n mun. Nhit cao v bc hi mnh gop phn thuc y qu trinh bc thot hi nc trn cc rung lua lm tng nhu cu v nc qua o tng chi ph sn xut cho mt n v sn phm. Cung do nhit cao v bc thot hi nc mnh nn se lm tng nguy c chy rng trong cc thng ma kh. NBD gy ngp lt thu hp din tch ng k ca ng bng chu th sng M Kng. NBD lm thu hp din tch rng ngp mn v co tc ng xu n rng trm v rng trng trn t phen. Nc mn xm nhp lm gim a bn sinh sng ca cc loi ng thc vt thy sinh nc ngot, lm gim ng k ngun nc sinh hot ca c dn cung nh ngun nc ti cho cc loi cy trng. Nc mn xm nhp thuc y nhanh qu trinh thoi hoa t cc vng ven bin. Ngun nc khan him hn nn mi trng sinh sng tr nn kem hn to iu kin cho dch bnh pht trin gy hi cho cuc sng ca mun loi, trong o co con ngi.
Chng IV. TAC NG CUA BIN I KH HU 4.3. Tac ng tich cc cua bin i khi hu BKH mc nht nh cung co nhng tc ng tch cc: L mt c hi thuc y cc nc i mi cng ngh, pht trin cc cng ngh sch, cng ngh thn thin vi mi trng v cc hot ng nghin cu v pht trin noi chung. Pht trin trng rng hp th CO2 v gim pht thi kh nh knh... mt s nc n i, khi nhit tng ln se thun li hn pht trin nng nghip. Nng lng si m cung b tiu hao t hn...
Chng IV. CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG
CHNG V
CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG VI BIN I KH HU
Chng V. CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG
CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG VI BIN I KH HU 5.1. Chin lc gim nh BKH Vit Nam 5.2. Chin lc thch ng vi BKH Vit Nam 5.3. Cng c khung ca LHQ v BKH v Ngh nh th Kyoto
CHNG V.

5.1. Chin lc giam nhe BKH Vit Nam 5.1.1. Cac chinh sach giam KNK 1. nh hng chnh sch gim pht thi KNK trong linh vc NL - Nng cao hiu qu s dng v bo tn NL - Pht trin v s dng cc ngun NL mi, NL ti to - S dng nng lng tit kim 2. nh hng chnh sch gim pht thi KNK trong linh vc LN y mnh thc hin trng rng; Bo v rng hin co; Phc hi rng tng hp; Phong chng chy rng. 3. nh hng chnh sch gim pht thi KNK trong linh vc NN Xy dng v trin khai p dng cc bin php ky thut canh tc NN tng sn v gim nh KNK; Ci thin qun l v ti tiu rung trng lua; Tng cng nng lc c s nghin cu NN; Ci tin thnh phn ba n khng chi co go l ch yu

5.1.2. Cac giai phap nng cao hiu qua NL Nng cao hiu qu s dng v bo tn NL chiu sng Nng cao hiu qu chiu sng trong s dng in cng cng v gia inh; Xy dng quy ch v tiu chun chiu sng tit kim; Tng bc th nghip v a vo s dng rng rai cc thit b chiu sng hiu qu, tit kim cao, qun l cng vic chiu sng v o to nhn lc. Tit kim NL v nng cao hiu qu NL trong cc doanh nghip: Cung cp thng tin NL v dch v NL hiu qu; Trin khai v gim st thc hin chng trinh hiu qu NL v MT; Nng cao hiu sut thit b ni hi CN; S dng rng rai m t in CN hiu sut cao Thc hin chng trinh qun l nhu cu NL (DSM) Qun l tt ph ti gim chnh lch cng sut v lng in s dng gia gi cao im v thp im; Gim tn tht trong truyn ti v phn phi in; Xy dng v thc hin chng trinh hiu qu NL th v pht trin NL nng thn; Xy dng v thc hin chng trinh cc thit b gia dng hiu sut cao;
Tit kim v s dng hiu qu NL trong cc toa nh. Pht trin nng lc thit k xy dng cc toa nh co hiu qu NL cao: Xy dng tiu chun NL i vi cc vt liu xy dng; Quy chun v khuyn khch s dng cc thit b co hiu qu NL cao; Thc hin kim ton NL trong cc cao c. Tit kim NL trong GTVT: Pht trin giao thng cng cng cc thnh ph, p ng 25-30% nhu cu i li trong giai on 2001-2010 v 50-60% nhu cu i li trong giai on t 2010-2020; Khuyn khch s dng phng tin giao thng tit kim nhin liu; Nng cp h thng c s h tng GTVT v nng cao cht lng cc phng tin GTVT; Kim sot kh thi cc phng tin GTVT.
5.1.3. Thuc y nghin cu, trin khai va tng cng s dung cac ngun nng lng mi va tai tao Nghin cu v pht trin NL mt tri Nghin cu v pht trin NL gio Nghin cu v pht trin thy in nho a nhit (a xc nh c 125 sui nc nong vi nhit b mt 79-101oC doc theo b bin Min Trung).
5.1.4. inh hng phat trin Lm Nghip nh hng pht trin nghnh Lm Nghip l pht trin TNR, nng che ph ca rng ln 36% vo nm 2005 v 43% vo giai on 20102020, giao t, giao rng, kt hp LN v NN, ngn chn nn t rng, ph rng, y mnh trng rng kinh t, to ngun g tr mo, nguyn liu cng nghip bt giy, lm gia dng v my ngh xut khu.
Mc tiu tng qut trong 20 nm u ca th ky XXI l: Xy dng nn LN xa hi hoa cao; tng cng bo v v khi phc rng bo m kh nng phong h MT. Bo tn din tch rng t nhin, bo v tnh DSH. p dng rng rai cc thnh tu KHCN mi, cng ngh cao ca th gii vo sn xut kinh doanh LN p ng nhu cu a dng v ngy cng cao ca nn KTQD. Gop phn xoa oi gim ngheo, tng bc ci thin i sng ng bo sng trn a bn rng v gn rng, to c s vng chc cho nn QP ton dn. Trn c s chin lc pht trin LN giai on 2010-2020, cc hot ng trong linh vc LN, pht trin LN tun th chnh sch bo v MT, trong o co chnh sch gim pht thi KNK v tng cng cc b cha KNK
Cc gii php quan trong: Tp trung thc hin chng trinh 5 triu ha rng a c QH thng qua nm 1997 nhm a che ph rng ln 43% vo cui giai on 2010-2020. Xy dng chng trinh hnh ng nhm ngn chn tinh hinh suy gim TNR, phc hi rng bng cc bin php bo v rng hin co, khoanh nui phc hi rng, trng rng mi, hn ch khai thc rng t nhin, PCCR. n nh c cu din tch 3 loi rng: rng phong h, rng c dng, rng sn xut. Kt hp ng b cc chnh sch XH: giao t, giao rng, nh canh, nh c, xoa oi, gim ngheo nhm h tr Chng trinh 5 triu ha rng. Thu hut ng o h gia inh tham gia bo v rng, trng rng v tham gia ngh rng. Xa hi hoa cao ngnh LN trn c s nn kinh t nhiu thnh phn. i mi quan h sn xut trong LN
5.1.5. inh hng phat trin NN va tng cng cac phng thc canh tac bn vng ng pho vi BKH Mc tiu chin lc pht trin NN thi ky 2010-2020 bao gm: Xy dng nn NN hng hoa a dng, pht trin bn vng, tip cn nhanh v p dng co hiu qu cc thnh tu KHCN mi, CN cao co kh nng cnh tranh trong nc v quc t. Xy dng nng thn mi co h tng c s pht trin, co c cu kinh t NN-CN-DV hp l. m bo vic lm, xoa oi, gim ngheo, xa hi nng thn vn minh, dn ch, cng bng, moi ngi sng sung tuc.
Vi vy, nh hng pht trin NN co tnh n yu cu ng pho vi BDKH l phi thoa man nhu cu lng thc, thc phm cho ngi dn v cho xut khu ng thi gim nh pht thi KNK trong linh vc NN.

Cc phng thc canh tc bn vng ng pho vi BDKH bao gm: Nghin cu xy dng cc bin php ky thut canh tc NN mi, va tng sn lng v nng sut NN, va gim nh pht thi KNK. Chon ging lua ngn ngy co NS, cht lng cao, la chon bin php gieo thng thay cho bin php cy, chuyn i c cu cy trng c canh lua sang 2 lua 1 mu hoc 1 lua 1 mu. Bon phn dng vin thch hp thay cho vic bon phn n trc y. Nghin cu, y mnh ch bin thc n gia suc, ng thi chon ging gia suc co NS, cht lng cao. Ci thin ti tiu nc rung lua. Trn cc vng trng lua nc c ti ch ng, thc hin cc bin php rut nc trong giai on e nhnh v sau khi lua vo chc, va tit kim lng nc ti, va tng nng sut, va gim lng pht thi CH4 trn rung lua. Xy dng ngn hng d liu v trang b cng c tnh ton, phc v nghin cu chuyn v NN co lin quan n BDKH. Ci tin ba n v tp qun n ca dn chung, sao cho thc n gm nhiu loi hoa mu thc phm, khng phi chu yu l go, bo m cung cp lng calo cn thit cho c th, nhm gim sc ep i vi vic trng lua, chuyn din tch trng lua sang trng mu v cc cy trng khc.
5.2. Chin lc thich ng vi BKH Vit Nam

Thich ng nghia l iu chinh, hoc th ng, hoc tch cc, hoc co phong b trc, c a ra vi nghia l gim thiu v ci thin nhng hu qu co hi ca BKH. S thch ng cung co nghia l cc hnh ng tn dng nhng c hi thun li mi ny sinh do BKH. Cc bin php thch ng vi BKH: IPCC a miu t 228 phng php thch ng v thng c phn loi thnh 8 nhom: Chp nhn tn tht l khng lm gi c, tc l chp nhn moi tn tht co th xy ra vi khng co iu kin chng choi hoc ci gi phi tr l qu cao so vi thit hi co th xy ra. Chia se tn tht l phn ng chia se tn tht gia mt cng ng dn c ln, pht trin v co truyn thng bng cu tr, phc hi ti thit bng quy cng cng hoc thng qua bo him. Lam thay i nguy c: o l kim sot cc mi nguy him t MT nh kim sot hn (thy li), kim sot lu lt (, p), gim pht thi KNK trong KQ. Ngn nga cac tac ng l h thng cc phng php ngn chn tng bc. Thay i cach s dung: thay i ging cy trng vt nui, chuyn i s dng t. Thay oi/chuyn ia im: chuyn n khu vc thun li hn Nghin cu: pht trin cng ngh mi, phng pht thch ng mi Giao duc, thng tin va khuyn khich thay i hanh vi
5.2.1. Xy dng va thc hin cac bin phap giam nhe tac ng cua BKH
Lm nghip: - Trng rng, ph xanh t trng, i nui troc, bo v v pht trin rng ngp mn. - Bo v rng t nhin, tin ti ong ca rng t nhin, tng cng PCCR - Thnh lp ngn hng ging cy rng t nhin bo v mt s ging cy rng qu him. - Tng cng hiu sut s dng g v kim ch s dng nguyn liu g. - Chon v nhn ging cy trng thch hp vi iu kin t nhin ph hp vi BKH Ti nguyn nc - Xy dng cc h cha nc lu vi tng dung tch tng thm 15-20 ty m3. - Nng cp v m rng quy m cc cng trinh tiu ung. - S dng ngun nc khoa hoc v hp l. - Khai thc ngun nc i i vi duy tri bo v ngun nc. - u t nghin cu d bo di hn ti nguyn nc. Nng nghip: - Xy dng c cu cy trng ph hp vi bin i kh hu. - S dng co hiu qu v co quy hoch nc ti. - Tng cng h thng ti tiu cho nng nghip. - Pht trin cc ging co kh nng chng chu vi iu kin ngoi cnh khc nghit. - Bo tn v gi gin cc ging cy trng a phng, thnh lp cc ngn hng ging. - Xy dng cc bin php ky thut canh tc ph hp vi bin i kh hu.

Thy sn - Chuyn i c cu canh tc mt s vng ngp nc t thun lua sang lun canh nui c v cy lua. - Xy dng c s h tng, bn bai neo u thuyn... co tnh n mc nc bin dng v nhit tng. - Co k hoch pht trin ngh nui trng thy sn cho vng nc l Trung B. - Xy dng tuyn quai pha trong to thnh vng m gia cc vng canh tc nng nghip v bin. - Xy dng h thng phong trnh bao doc b bin cung nh cc tuyn o. - Thit lp cc khu bo tn sinh thi t nhin, c bit l vng rn v o san h. Vng ven b bin: Thc hin ng thi hoc la chon 3 phng n chin lc ng pho vi mc nc bin dng: - Bo v y : bo v ton din bo v hin trng, i pho co hiu qu vi mc nc bin dng. - Thch ng: ci to c s h tng v chuyn i c cu kinh t, tp qun sn xut, sinh hot ca dn c ven b thch ng vi mc nc bin dng. - Rut lui: ne trnh tc ng t nhin ca nc bin dng bng ti nh c, di di nh ca, c s h tng ra khoi nhng vng co nguy c b e doa. - Nng cp h thng bin v vng ca sng hin co v tng bc xy dng tuyn bin mi. - Kim ch tc tng dn s v quy hoch khu dn c vng ven bin.
Chng IV. CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG Nng lng v giao thng vn ti - Xy dng cc k hoch pht trin nng lng v giao thng vn ti co tnh n cc yu t ca bin i kh hu. - Nng cp v ci to cc cng trinh giao thng vn ti cc vng thng b e doa bi lu lt v nc bin dng. - Bo m qun l nhu cu nng lng (DSM) trn c s hiu sut nng lng cao, s dng tit kim v hp l nng lng. - Xy dng chin lc ng pho v thch ng vi din bin bt thng ca thi tit. Y t v sc khoe con ngi - Nng cao nhn thc v sinh v vn hoa gia inh ca dn chung thng qua cc chng trinh: nc sch, VAC, Biogas... - Xy dng k hoch v chng trinh nhm kim sot v gim st y t cc vng co nguy c ly nhim cao. - Thit lp nhiu khu vc xanh sch p. - Nng cao nhn thc cng chung v bin i kh hu. - phong s ly nhim v truyn bnh t bn ngoi.
Chng IV. CHIN LC GIM NH V THCH NG 5.3.2 T chc quan trc theo di va nghin cu v BKH T chc quan trc, theo doi, nghin cu v BDKH T chc nghin cu tc ng ca BDKH ton cu n kh hu, thi tit Vit Nam T chc nghin cu tc ng ca BKH n ti nguyn thin nhin v kinh t xa hi: - Tc ng ca BKH n ti nguyn nc; - Tc ng ca BKH n cc h sinh thi t nhin; - Tc ng ca BKH n di ven bin; - Tc ng ca BKH n ti nguyn rng; - Tc ng ca BKH n nng, lm, ng nghip; - Tc ng ca BKH n cng nghip, nng lng; - Tc ng ca BKH n giao thng vn ti; - Tc ng ca BKH n y t, sc khoe, du lch T chc nghin cu chin lc v gii php gim nh v thch ng vi BKH. Kim k pht thi KNK;
5.3.1 Cng c khung cua LHQ v BKH Trc nhng thch thc t BKH, 2 t chc chuyn mn chnh l WMO v Chng trinh MT ca LHQ (UNEP) a tho lun v nht tr l cn co mt Cng c quc t v kh hu Nm 1988 WMO v UNEP a phi hp thnh lp Ban lin chnh ph v BDKH ( Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change -IPCC) nghin cu v a ra cc bin php nhm hn ch tc ng tiu cc ca BKHi. Thng 6/1992, ti Hi ngh ca LHQ v MT v PT (con goi l Hi ngh Thng inh Tri t) Janeiro, Braxin cc nh lanh o ca 155 nc a k UNFCCC. Cho n nay a co 189 nc ph chun, ph duyt, chp nhn hoc gia nhp Cng c ny. Cng c a co hiu lc thi hnh t ngy 21/3/1994.
Mc tiu ca UNFCCC l n nh nng cc KNK trong KQ mc co th ngn nga c s can thip nguy him ca con ngi i vi h thng kh hu. UNFCCC phn chia cc nc trn th gii thnh 2 nhom: cc bn thuc Ph lc I- gm cc nc pht trin v cc nc co nn kinh t chuyn i. y l cc nc co lng pht thi KNK ln. Cc nc khng thuc Ph lc I l cc nc ang pht trin. Quan im ca UNFCCC l cc bn phi tham gia bo v h thng kh hu vi li ch chung trn c s cng bng v ph hp vi nhng trch nhim chung nhng co phn bit. Nguyn tc ny oi hi cc nc pht trin cam kt gim pht thi cc KNK duy tri mc pht thi nm 1990 v h tr ti chnh, chuyn giao cng ngh thn thin vi MT cho cc nc ang pht trin gim nh pht thi cc KNK v co cc bin php thch ng vi BKH
5.3.2 Nghi inh th Kyoto Thng 12 nm 1997, ti Hi ngh ln th 3 cc Bn ca UNFCCC (COP 3), t chc ti Kyoto, Nht Bn, Ngh nh th ca UNFCCC a c thng qua v goi l Ngh nh th Kyoto (KP). KP a ra cam kt i vi cc nc pht trin v cc nc co nn kinh t chuyn i v gim tng lng pht thi cc KNK xung thp hn nm 1990 vi ty l TB l 5,2% , trong thi ky u tin t 2008-2012 theo cc mc ct gim c th (Cng ng chu u: 8%; Hoa Ky: 7%; Nht Bn: 6%...) Cc KNK b kim sot bi KP l: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs v SF6. KP co hiu lc thi hnh k t ngy 16 thng 02 nm 2005 (tnh n thng 4 nm 2008 a co 180 nc ph chun KP. Cc Bn thuc Ph lc I a ph chun KP co lng pht thi chim 61,1% tng pht thi CO2 nm 1990 ca cc Bn thuc Ph lc I).
KP a ra 03 C ch mm deo: 1. C ch cng thc hin (JI): JI cho phep cc Bn thuc Ph lc I c thc hin cc d n gim pht thi cc KNK hoc tng cng cc b hp th cc nc khng thuc Ph lc I. Cc n v gim pht thi (ERUs) do cc d n ny to ra co th c cc Bn u t thuc Ph lc I s dng vo vic thc hin nghia v gim pht thi cc KNK ca minh. 2. C ch mua bn quyn pht thi (ET): ET cho phep cc Bn thuc Ph lc I thu c cc n v nh lng (AAUs) t cc Bn khc thuc Ph lc I co kh nng gim pht thi d dng hn. 3. C ch pht trin sch (CDM): CDM cho phep cc Bn thuc Ph lc I thc hin cc d n nhm gim pht thi cc KNK v phc v pht trin bn vng ti cc Bn khng thuc Ph lc I.
CDM co mc tiu l: Gim nh tc ng tiu cc ca BKH; Giup cc nc pht trin thc hin cam kt v hn ch v gim pht thi nh lng cc KNK theo iu 3 ca KP; Giup cc nc ang pht trin t c s pht trin bn vng, ng thi gop phn thc hin mc tiu cui cng ca UNFCCC.
+ Nhng linh vc co th xy dng d n CDM:

1) sn xut nng lng; 2) chuyn ti nng lng; 3) tiu th nng lng; 4) nng nghip; 5) x l, loi bo rc thi; 6) trng rng v ti trng rng; 7) cng nghip hoa cht; 8) cng nghip ch to; 9) xy dng; 10) giao thng vn ti; 11) khai thc mo hoc khai khong; 12) sn xut kim loi; 13) pht thi t nhin liu (nhin liu rn, du v kh); 14) pht thi t sn xut v tiu th Halocacbons v Sulphur hexafluride 15) s dng dung mi.
Mt s vn cu th v CDM: CDM l mt trong 3 c ch ca KP CDM cho phep cc nc pht trin (thuc Ph lc 1trong KP) u t thc hin cc DA gim pht thi KNK ti cc nc ang pht trin (khng thuc Ph lc 1) c tr vo phn phi gim pht thi ti nc ho theo quy nh ti KP Chng chi gim pht thi KNK l cc CER tng ng 1 tn CO2. CER co th c mua bn trn th trng cac-bon (do UNFCCC iu hnh) CDM giup cc nc ang pht trin co c cc d n thn thin vi mi trng; CER phi c Ban CH quc t v CDM (EB) xet duyt v cp theo quy nh. o l 1 ban gm 10 thnh vin l i din cc chu lc v i din cc nc thuc v khng thuc Ph lc 1 CDM phi c gim st ca Bn th ba (DOE) do EB chi nh
Hoat ng chung v d an CDM trn Th gii a trn 4200 d n CDM trn th gii, trong o khong 2000 d n a c EB cho ng k l d n CDM Trong s d n a c ng k co 60,40% d n v nng lng, 17,59% v x l cht thi, con li l cc d n khc. Tng tim nng gim pht thi tnh n ht nm 2012 d kin l 1 ty 680 triu tn CO2 tng ng
Cac li ich do CDM mang lai

Thu hut vn u t nc ngoi To thm cng n vic lm, tng thu nhp cho ngi lao ng, gop phn xoa oi gim ngheo Tip nhn cng ngh mi thn thin vi mi trng; gop phn bo v mi trng, kh hu, ngun nc, khng kh v sc khoe H tr chin lc, k hoch, chng trinh pht trin KTXH bn vng ca TW, ngnh v a phng C quan thm quyn Vit Nam v CDM (DNA) C quan: Cc KTTV v BDKH, B TN&MT Thm quyn: Cp Th xc nhn hoc Th ph duyt d n CDM trong khun kh KP (theo s y quyn ca B trng) Gi mi lin h vi UNFCCC v BDKH Phi hp vi cc c quan, n v trong vic m phn, k kt cc iu c quc t; thc hin cc chng trinh d n v BDKH
5.3.3 Nghia vu va quyn li cua Vit Nam khi tham gia UNFCCC va KP Chnh ph Vit Nam a k UNFCCC ngy 11/6/1992 v ph chun ngy 16/11/1994, cung nh a k KP ngy 3/12/1998 v ph chun ngy 25/9/2002. Vit Nam l mt trong cc nc khng thuc Ph lc I (nc ang pht trin). Do o, Vit Nam khng co nghia v phi gim pht thi nh lng cc KNK theo quy nh ca KP. Xy dng thng bo quc gia v BKH; Tin hnh kim k quc v cc KNK t cc ngun do con ngi gy ra v lng KNK c hp th bi cc b hp th (v d nh hp th cacbon t rng); nh gi tc ng ca BKH i vi cc linh vc KTXH, cc vung d b tn hi bi BKH, c bit do nc bin dng; Xy dng cc phng n gim nh pht thi KNK; Xy dng v thc hin cc bin php ng pho vi BKH; Tin hnh cc hot ng nghin cu v quan trc nhng vn /yu t lin quan n kh hu v BKH; Cp nht v ph bin cc thng tin nhm nng cao nhn thc ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v cng chung v BKH, CDM. B TNMT l C quan u mi tham gia v thc hin UNFCCC, KP.
Chng IV. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH
Chng VI.
NH GI TC NG CA BKH
Chng VI. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH
2) Cach thc tip cn - Tip cn tc ng gin tip Trong nhiu trng hp, nh hng ca iu kin t nhin c minh hoa theo cc cp song khng phi luc no cung co th trinh din tc ng ca BKH n iu kin t nhin mt cch nh lng - Tip cn tc ng trc tip Theo cch tip cn ny, cc nhn t t nhin ngoi kh hu (a cht, a mo,) tm thi c coi l bt bin. Tc ng ca BKH c quan nim l kt qu tt yu ca iu kin t nhin trc cc bin i v iu kin kh hu a c n nh theo kch bn BKH.
3) Phng phap anh gia Tc ng ca BKH n iu kin t nhin v ti nguyn thin nhin c nh gi theo mt trong hai phng php sau y: - Phng php d kin tc ng Do cc iu kin kh hu c minh hoa trong cc kch bn u l iu kin tng lai nn cc nh gi v iu kin t nhin hay ti nguyn thin nhin u l tc ng d kin. Cc d kin ny trong nhiu trng hp chi l ngoi suy v pha tng lai, co hay khng kem theo cc gi nh tng t thc nghim. - Phng php tng t thc nghimNi dung chnh ca phng php ny da trn gi nh: mi quan h gia cc iu kin kh hu vi cc iu kin t nhin khc trong lch s c lp li hon ton hoc xy ra mt cch gn ung trong tng lai v tng quan so snh v tc xu th gia cc yu t trong thi gian qua vn tn ti trong qu kh.
4) Trnh t thc hin - Vn hay yu t c nh gi - Phm vi khng gian ca i tng c nh gi - Cc mc thi gian trong khun kh nh gi - La chon kch bn BKH tng ng vi thc th - La chon phng php nh gi tc ng ca BKH - Thc hin nh gi theo phng php c la chon
5) Trnh t anh gia tac ng ca BKH n cac iu kin t nhin nh gi tc ng ca BKH n iu kin t nhin ch yu l kh hu, t v nc, thc hin cc bc sau y: Bc 1: nh gi tc ng ca BKH n cc yu t kh hu c bn: tng nhit , tng lng ma, tng bc hi v chi s m t. Bc 2: nh gi tc ng ca BKH n mt s cc tr kh hu v hin tng kh hu cc oan (nhit cao nht, nhit thp nht, lng ma ln nht, tn s XTN, hn hn). Bc 3: c tnh din tch t thp do nc bin dng
Bc 4: nh gi tc ng ca BKH n mt s yu t thy vn (lu lng, dong chy.)

Bc 5: nh gi tc ng ca BKH n mt s c tnh ca t.
Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i khi hu n cc hoat ng kinh t - x hi a) Mc ch nh gi Trong linh vc KTXH, nh gi tc ng ca BKH nhm cc mc ch chnh sau y: - Xc nh nhng b phn hoc hp phn co kh nng - chu tc ng ca BKH trc tip, gin tip. - Xc nh linh vc mn cm trc mt s thay i t - ngt v iu kin kh hu hoc d b tn thng do BKH gy ra. - c lng hoc d kin cc thit hi do tc ng tiu - cc ca BKH trong mt s linh vc kinh t - xa hi. - To iu kin thun li v c s khoa hoc cho cc gii - php gim nh BKH, thch ng vi BKH.
b) Phng cch tip cn Trong hon cnh Vit Nam nhim v nh gi tc ng ca BKH i vi cc hot ng KTXH da vo tc ng trc tip nh trong linh vc iu kin t nhin v ti nguyn thin nhin. Cc nhn t tc ng trc tip y c m rng hn bao gm cc yu t c trinh by trong kch bn BKH (tr s trung binh v ca nhit , lng ma, nc bin dng) v c cc yu t pht sinh t cc kch bn (cc tr nhit , cc tr lng ma, tn s hn hn,)
Chng VI. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH c) Phng php nh gi Tc ng ca BKH n cc hot ng kinh t - xa hi c nh gi bng hai phng php sau y: - Phng php d kin tc ng Do cc iu kin kh hu c trinh by trong cc kch bn cung nh cc iu kin t nhin (kh hu, thy vn, t) pht sinh t cc yu t kch bn u l iu kin tng lai nn nh gi v cc hot ng kinh t xa hi u tc ng tim tng hay tc ng d kin. - Phng php tng t qu khNi dung chnh ca phng php da trn gi nh:Quan h gia cc iu kin kh hu cung nh cc iu kin t nhin khc vi cc hot ng kinh t - xa hi trong qu kh vn c tn ti lu di trong tng lai v chiu hng cung nh v mc .
d) Trinh t thc hin - Xc nh cc hot ng kinh t - xa hi c nh gi.- Xc nh cc thc th (trong tng linh vc) c- nh gi. - La chon kch bn BKH hay cc trng hung v iu - kin t nhin trong tng lai. - La chon phng php nh gi. - Thc hin nh gi theo cc kch bn, tinh trng c la chon.
Chng VI. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH 6.1.3. Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i khi hu i vi cc lnh vc I) Nng nghip Muc ich anh gia:- Lm sng to vn BKH co tc ng nhiu n linh vc nng nghip hay khng (nh hng n an ninh lng thc, e doa xut khu lng thc, tng gi thnh sn xut lng thc, pht sinh nn oi,). - Gop phn tim kim li gii cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch (linh vc d b tn thng, ci cch chnh sch nng nghip, h thng ti tiu). Cac vn cn c nghin cu va anh gia: - Bin i v ngun nc v chi ph ti tiu. - Bin i hay dch chuyn ca khu vc thch ng vi sinh trng v pht trin ca cy trng, nhit i, nhit i. - Bin i v nng sut cy lng thc ch yu. - Bin i v tn s, cng , dch bnh gy hi cho cy trng, vt nui.
2) Lm nghip Mc ch nh gi:- D kin nhng tc ng tim tng ca BKH n cc h sinh thi rng, sn phm hay sn lng sinh khi rng. - Gop phn xy dng c s khoa hoc cho cc chnh sch v gii php ng pho vi BKH trong linh vc lm nghip. Cc vn cn c nghin cu v nh gi:- Tc ng ca BKH n rng ngp mn v cc loi rng khc. - Dch chuyn a l ca cc h sinh thi rng - Bin i v cu truc v cc thnh phn ging ca cc loi rng. - Bin i v sn phm rng trn mt n v din tch rng. - Quan h gia BKH v nguy c chy rng. - Nhng bin i kinh t - xa hi lin quan n bin i ca rng.
3) Thy sn Muc ich anh gia: - Bin i ca cc yu t kh hu ch yu tc ng nh + th no n iu kin l sinh, hoa sinh ca cc ngun nc co thy sn. - BKH gy ra nh hng nh th no i vi cc loi c, a dng sinh hoc, sn lng v thnh phn thy sn Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Nhng bin i v thy sn do bin i nhit gy ra. - Nhng bin i v thy sn do lng ma v ma ma thay i gy ra. - Nhng bin i v thy sn do mc nc bin gy ra.
4) Nng lng Mc ich nh gi: - nh gi cc tc ng tiu cc ca BKH n ngnh nng lng bao gm cung ng nng lng v nhu cu nng lng. - Gop phn xy dng cc gii php ng pho vi BKH + trong cc ngnh sn xut nng lng v tiu th nng lng. Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Tc ng ca BKH n vn hnh cc h cha v iu tit cc nh my thy in. - Tc ng ca BKH n cc hot ng thm do, khai thc du kh trn bin. - Tc ng ca BKH n truyn ti in v hiu sut s dng nng lng. - Tc ng ca BKH n pht trin nng lng mi.
5) Xy dng Muc ich anh gia: - nh gi tc ng ca BKH n cc hot ng ca ngnh xy dng cung nh c s vt cht v cc cng trinh xy dng. - Gop phn xut cc gii php thch ng vi BKH trong linh vc xy dng cc khu vc th v sn xut cng nghip. Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Tc ng ca BKH n quy hoch xy dng bao gm + quy hoch cc th, cc cng trinh ven - Tc ng ca BKH n thit k cc cng trinh xy + dng nh ca, cng trinh kin truc. - Tc ng ca BKH n cc cng trinh tiu thot + nc th.
6) Giao thng vn ti Muc ich anh gia: - nh gi tc ng ca BKH n cc hot ng ca + ngnh giao thng vn ti cung nh c s vt cht, cng trinh giao thng. - Gop phn xut cc gii php thch ng vi BKH + trong linh vc giao thng vn ti. Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Tc ng ca BKH n quc l 1, ng st Bc Nam + v ng chin lc H Ch Minh; - Tc ng ca BKH n cc cng trinh ven bin, bao + gm p, cu cng; - Tc ng ca BKH n cc phng tin vn ti, hot + ng giao thng; - Tc ng ca BKH n tiu hao nhin liu trong giao + thng vn ti.
7) Y t Muc ich anh gia: - Phn tch v xc nh tc ng ca BKH n tim nng v mc pht sinh bnh tt, c bit l bnh nhit - nh gi tc ng ca BKH n th lc, th cht ca cc tng lp dn c nhng a phng co nhiu ri ro v thch thc v BKH. - Gop phn xy dng gii php chin lc ng pho vi BKH trong linh vc y t, sc khoe. Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Tc ng ca BKH n sc khoe cng ng. - Tc ng ca BKH n kh nng pht trin v lan truyn dch bnh. - Tc ng ca BKH n pht sinh v pht trin cc bnh nhit i.
8) Du lich Muc ich anh gia: - Xc nh nhng iu kin bt li ca ngnh du lch trc nguy c BKH. - Chun b tch cc cho vic xy dng cc gii php ng pho vi BKH trong ngnh du lch. Ni dung nghin cu va anh gia: - Mi quan h gia BKH v s gia tng nhu cu du lch sinh thi, c bit l du lch bin o. - Nhng kho khn ch yu do BKH gy ra i vi qu trinh thc hin cc tuyn du lch sinh thi v bin o. - Mi quan h gia BKH v chi ph cho cng tc bo tn v pht trin cc khu du lch sinh - S thu hp khng gian v nhng kho khn bt li ca du lch tm bin trc tc ng tiu cc ca BKH.
Chng VI. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH 6.2.2. Cch tip cn v phng php xy dng gii php thich ng Cch tip cn xy dng phng php thch ng ca ti l t trn xung. Theo cch tip cn ny, nhim v xy dng gii php thch ng c thc hin theo trinh t sau y: 1. La chon kch bn BKH cho c nc v cc vng a l kh hu. 2. nh gi tc ng ca BKH n cc iu kin t nhin ch 3. Din gii iu kin t nhin trn c nc v trn tng vng kh hu trong cc thi im hoc giai on trong tng lai. 4. nh gi tc ng ca iu kin t nhin tng lai n moi hot ng kinh t xa hi trn c nc v trn tng vng. 5. xut gii php chin lc thch ng vi BKH trn tng linh vc, trn tng vng. 6. nh gi chi ph hiu qu ca cc gii php thch ng vi BKH. 7. La chon v kin ngh gii php thch ng vi BKH.
6.2.3. Bin php thich ng vi bin i khi hu Trn tng vng lanh th hoc tng linh vc KTXH co th la chon mt s hoc ton b 4 nhom bin php thch ng ph bin sau y: 1. Ngn chn trc tip nguy c hoc thm hoa do BKH gy ra trn cc a bn xung yu trong tng lai. 2. Gim bt nh hng tiu cc ca BKH trong sn xut hoc trong i sng. 3. Thay i quy hoch c dn, quy hoch sn xut, phng thc v ky thut canh tc quy trinh cng ngh trn cc vng v cc linh vc kinh t xa hi. 4. Xy dng v tng cng nng lc phong chng tc ng ca BKH, khc phc hu qu ca BKH thng qua cc nghin cu, thc nghim khoa hoc, truyn thng, ph bin kin thc khoa hoc lin quan n BKH.
Chng IV. NH GI TC NG CA BDKH A
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