BAI 8: TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

LY THUYET TANG TRNG KINH TE CAC CHIEN LC PHAT TRIEN KINH TE CHU KY KINH DOANH

I. TANG TRNG VA CAC NHAN TO TANG TRNG KINH TE 1. TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

a. Tang trng kinh te (Economic Growth)

GDP

t0

t1

* Tang trng kinh te la s tang ve quy mo san lng cua nen kinh te trong thi ky nhat nh. * S tang trng c so sanh theo cac thi iem Thi gian goc no phan anh toc o tang trng.

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

* Tang trng kinh te la mc gia tang GDP hay GNP nam sau so vi nam trc
GDP1-GDP0 x 100% GDP0 * GDP0 : Tong san pham quoc noi nam trc . * GDP1 : Tong san pham quoc noi nam sau. * GNP0 : Tong san pham quoc dan nam trc . * GNP1 : Tong san pham quoc dan nam sau.

GNP1-GNP0 x 100% GNP0

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

* La tien e vat chat giam oi ngheo

Vai tro cua tang trng kinh te.

* Tang thu nhap, nang cao i song

* Giai quyet viec lam, giam that nghiep * Cung co che o chnh tr, trat t xa hoi * Khac phuc tnh trang tut hau

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

* Tang trng nhanh la muc tieu cua cac quoc gia, song cung a en cac hau qua.

Kinh te qua nong, lam phat, khong giai quyet tot cac van e MTST

Tang trng nhanh

Xa hoi phan hoa giau ngheo

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Cac nhan to tang trng kinh te

Thu hut cac nguon von Hieu qua s dung ICOR
La yeu to quyet nh Phat trien nguon nhan lc
VON

CON NGI

La ong lc tang trng Tang nang suat lao ong

C cau kinh te hp ly Khai thac tiem nang

KHOA HOC CONG NGHE

NGUON TAI NGUYEN &C CAU KINH TE

Nhan to tac ong en tang trng kinh te

Toc o tang trng cac nam cua VN: +Bnh quan cua 1996-2000:7%/nam +2001-2005:7.,5%. Trong o: -2001:6,9% -2002:7,08% -2003:7,34% -2004:7,8% -2005:8,4% -Muc tieu 20062010: ?

nh hng tang trng Han che tieu cc

THE CHE CHNH TR

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

b. Phat trien kinh te (Economic Development). * Phat trien kinh te la s tang trng kinh te gan lien vi hoan thien c cau the che kinh te va nang cao chat lng cuoc song.

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Noi dung cua phat trien kinh te.

* Tang GDP va GNP tnh theo au ngi trong 1 nam * Mc tang trng cua quoc gia

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

* Bien oi c cau kinh te theo hng tien bo *Tng bc thoa man nhu cau c ban cua 1 xa hoi. * am bao cong bang xa hoi

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Nhan to tac ong phat trien kinh te

-Xay dng c s vat chat ky thuat -ao tao nhan lc

LC LNG SAN XUAT QUAN HE SAN XUAT

-Quan he san xuat tien bo, phu hp -Li ch kinh te-ong lc

Nhan to tac ong phat trien kinh te

KIEN TRUC THNG TANG

-Tac ong tch cc, khi phan anh ung yeu cau cua quan ly kinh te

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE c. Phat trien kinh te va tien bo xa hoi: * Tien bo xa hoi (con goi la tien bo lch s) ch s phat trien cua xa hoi t trnh o thap len trnh o cao hn. Tien bo xa hoi la quy luat khach quan cua lch s xa hoi. * Ch so phat trien con ngi (HDI- Human Development Index) la mot ch so quan trong, can thiet e the hien nhng tien bo xa hoi.

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Phat trien xa hoi

Xa hoi cong san chu ngha Xa hoi t ban chu ngha

Xa hoi phong kien

Xa hoi chiem hu no le Xa hoi cong san nguyen thuy Tien trnh lch s

Con ngi la ong lc thuc ay tien bo xa hoi

TANG TRNG VA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

* Quan he gia tang trng va phat trien xa hoi:
Quan he gia tang trng va phat trien thc chat la quan he: *Lc lng san xuat vi quan he san xuat *C s ha tang vi kien truc thng tang

Tien bo xa hoi

Tang trng va phat trien la c s cua tien bo xa hoi

I. TANG TRNG VA CAC NHAN TO TANG TRNG KINH TE

2. Cac chieu hng tang trng

Chieu hng 1: Tang von theo chieu sau Chieu hng 2: Tien cong tang manh Chieu hng 3: Tien cong tang cham Chieu hng 4: Thu nhap cua cong ty, lai suat thc te Chieu hng 5:

II. CHU KY KINH DOANH (BUSINESS CYCLE)

1.
a.

Nhng ac iem cua chu ky kinh doanh Khai niem: s dao ong cua san lng (thng c tnh theo GNP), thu nhap va viec lam. thng keo dai trong mot giai oan t 2 en 10 nam. c anh dau bang s m rong hay thu hep tren quy mo ln trong hau het cac lnh vc cua nen kinh te. Cac giai oan chnh cua chu ky kinh doanh: Suy thoai M rong

II. CHU KY KINH DOANH (BUSINESS CYCLE)

Nhng ac iem cua chu ky kinh doanh b. Mot so nhng ac iem: Giai oan suy thoai: Cat giam san xuat, au t, tieu dung, d tr ton kho tang Cau ve lao ong giam, that nghiep tang Li nhuan doanh nghiep giam, gia chng khoan giam Lam phat co xu hng giam Cau ve tn dung giam, lai suat co xu hng giam
1.

Giai oan m rong: co nhng ac iem ngc lai

II. CHU KY KINH DOANH (BUSINESS CYCLE) 2. Cac ly thuyet ve chu ky kinh doanh: a. Co hai cach tiep can ve nguyen nhan Nhng nhan to noi sinh (Internal) Nhng nhan to ngoai sinh (External) b. Mot so nhng ly thuyet chu yeu:

Thuyet tien te(monetary theories) cua M. Friedman Chnh sach that chat tien te, tn dung la nguyen dan en suy thoai va khung hoang.

nhanchu yeu

Samuelson Nhng bien ong ngoai sinh tac ong en san lng c lan truyen mang tnh gia toc trong quan he vi au t va so nhan tao nen nhng dao ong chu ky cua san lng.

Mo hnh gia toc so

nhan (multiplier-accelerator model theory) cua P. A.

II. CHU KY KINH DOANH (BUSINESS CYCLE)

nhan (multiplier-accelerator model theory) cua P. A. Samuelson Nhng bien ong ngoai sinh tac ong en san lng c lan truyen mang tnh gia toc trong quan he vi au t va so nhan tao nen nhng dao ong chu ky cua san lng.

Mo hnh gia toc so

Cac chnh tr gia thng s dung cac chnh sach tai chnh, tien te phuc vu cho cac muc tieu tai tranh c dan en dao ong san lng mang tnh chu ky.
Nhng nhan thc khong ay u ve lao ong va tien long dan en viec cung ng lao ong khong phu hp, dan en dao ong ve san lng.

Ly thuyet chu ky kinh doanh chnh tr (Political theories)

Ly thuyet chu ky kinh doanh can bang (equilibrium-business-cycle theories)