TRIEN

(Development Economics)

KINH TE PHAT TRIEN (DEVELOMENT ECONOMICS)

Chng1: Nhng van e chung ve tang trng va phat trien kinh te. Chng 2: Cac ly thuyet tang trng & phat trien kinh te Chng3:Cac nguon lc phat trien. Chng4: Nong nghiep trong qua trnh phat trien. Chng5: Cong nghiep trong qua trnh phat trien.

KINH TE PHAT TRIEN (DEVELOMENT ECONOMICS)

Chuyen e: Ngheo oi va phat trien Nang lc canh tranh quoc gia Toan cau hoa Bai tap nhom: Lp chia thanh 12 nhom, chuan b bai thuyet trnh theo chu e giao vien yeu cau

CHU E BAI TAP NHOM

1-T khung hoang TC_TT Chau A en khung hoang TC MY 2-Mo hnh phat trien cua Nhat 3-Mo hnh phat trien cua Singapore 4-Mo hnh phat trien cua Thai Lan 5-Mo hnh phat trien cua My 6-Von FDI cua Viet Nam 7-Th trng chng khoan cua Viet Nam 8-Quan he gia tang trng KT, bao ve moi trng va cong bang xa hoi 9-Qua trnh tang trng KT Viet Nam t 1986-nay 10-Tch cc va tieu cc cua cong nghiep hoa 11-Ngoai thng cua Viet Nam

 Bai thi cuoi khoa chiem 70% tong so iem Bai tap nhom chiem 30% tong so iem Sinh vien tnh nguyen giai bai tap neu ung t 70% tr len se c cong 1 iem vao bai thi cuoi khoa

CACH ANH GIA

CHNG 1

1.1 TANG TRNG & PHAT TRIEN KINH T 1.2.CAC CH TIEU 1.3.PHAN LOAI CAC NC 1.4 NHNG TR NGAI TRONG QUA TRNH PT 1.5 VAI TRO CUA NHA NC

1.1.1 Khai niem:Tang trng kinh te (economic growth) la mot khai niem mang tnh nh lng ; c bieu hien bang mot trong hai cach: - Cach 1: S gia tang thc te cua tong san pham quoc dan GNP (Gross National Product) ; tong san pham quoc noi GDP ( Gross domestic product) hay san pham quoc dan rong NNP (Net National Product) trong mot thi ky nhat nh. - Cach 2: S gia tang thc te theo au ngi cua GNP ; GDP hay NNP

1100 1024 720 640 545 288 118

GNP = GDP +A-B A: thu nhap yeu to nhan c t nc ngoai B: thu nhap yeu to tra cho nc ngoai A bao gom nhng khoan chu yeu: + thu t xuat khau + li nhuan chuyen ve nc cua cac n v KT cua at nc hoat ong nc ngoai + thu nhap chuyen ve nc

GNP = GDP +A-B B bao gom nhng khoan chu yeu: - chi cho nhap khau - li nhuan cua cac n v KT cua nc ngoai chuyen ve nc ho - thu nhap cua chuyen gia, ngi lao ong nc ngoai chuyen ve nc ho A>B: GNP>GDP

gia tang thc te? khi anh gia tang trng phai so sanh cac ch tieu theo gia co nh ch khong theo gia hien hanh eQ .P loai tr s bien ong i i cua gia ca Q i i .P
n i= 1 n 25 0 0 i= 1 n 25 0 0

Q i
26 0 0 i= 1 n

.P i

26 0 0

Q 25 i 0 0
i= 1 n

.P * i .P * i

Q 26 i 0 0
i= 1

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE ( ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ) BAO GOM:

Tang trng kinh te Tien bo ve chnh tr, van hoa, xa hoi, moi trng. Thay oi c cau kinh te. Cong dan cua quoc gia phai tham gia vao va c hng thanh qua cua s tang trng.

Cang phat trien th:

C CAU KINH TE Ty trong cong nghiep, dch vu trong GNP ngay cang tang Ty trong nong nghiep trong GNP ngay cang giam C CAU LAO ONG ty le lao ong cong nghiep, lao ong dch vu trong tong lao ong xa hoi ngay cang tang Ty le lao ong nong nghiep trong tong lao ong xa hoi ngay cang

C cu cac nganh kinh t VN

Phat trien KT ben vng (sustainable development):

La s phat trien thoa man nhu cau cua the he hien tai nhng khong anh hng en viec thoa man nhu cau cua the he tng lai Phat trien ben vng phai am bao can bang gia tang trng KT, cong bang xa hoi va bao ve moi

S day ac cua cac kh thai CO2, CH4, CFC, NOx..tng t nh mot tam thuy tinh hap thu bc xa anh nang mat tri i vao nhng ngan can bc xa nhiet ra khoi lam nhiet o tang len, tang ozon b

CFC (chlorofluorocarbons) c a vao s dung nhng nam 30 do ac tnh ben vng, khong de chay, khong oc, khong an mon.. c s dung trong viec lam lanh nhien lieu ay bnh phun, san xuat bot, chat dung moi T nhng nam 20, the ky 20, ngi ta thng xuyen o ac tang ozon:sau nhng nam 70, tan gozon mong i 1986 c quan kh tng TG va Chng trnh moi trng LHQ xac nhan tang ozon b thung 1998 lo thung 27,24 trieu km2 Cuc kh tng Nhat Ban lo thung Nam cc 29,1 trieu km2

Hien tng: -The ky 20 la the ky nong nhat trong 600 nam qua: nhiet o 1998 cao hn nhet o trung bnh cua 118 nam qua -100 nam qua trai at nong hn na o C, 13 nam nong nhat eu t nam 1980 tr lai -Nhiet o be mat ai dng

 Anh hng sc khoe: ung th da, ton

hai he thong miem dch, uc nhan cau, giam tac dung cac chng trnh tiem chung Anh hng en he sinh thai: tieu diet tao n bao giam tr lng thuy san; lam giam kha nang quang hoc mua mang that bat Nhiet o tang len, thay oi lng gio, thay oi lng ma & phan bo lng ma theo thi gian khong gian ma nhieu hn &bat thng hn lut

 Gay nen hien tng Elnino han han ni nay, lut loi ni khac Bang tan nc bien dang cao nhan chm nhng quoc gia thap nen Lam gia tang hien tng sa mac hoa Dch benh con trung phat trien Tiet chung cac giong loai

u t lm tng GDP nhng c mt b phn khng lm tng gi tr thc: Cng trnh u t c tnh vo GDP song lm xong khng s dng (in hnh l mt s ch, nh vn ha, nh my ng...). hay s dng cha ht cng sut y l phn c tnh vo GDP nhng khng hu ch do ch trng u t sai.

au t lam tang GDP nhng co mot bo phan khong lam tang gia tr thc:

Cng trnh xy dng u, lm xong phi sa cha tn km, c trng hp ph i lm li hoc thi cng ko di gy thm tn km khng t. Cu Vn Thnh TP.HCM, phn ln cng trnh ko di thi gian xy dng, tng thm kinh ph Khi lng cng vic lm thm, chi ph thm c tnh vo GDP nhng khng lm tng gi tr hu ch.

Trong vn u t thc hin, c mt phn b c khot do tham nhng, nhng phn ny vn tnh vo GDP qua chng t thanh ton. Tnh trng tham nhng trong u t l nghim trng.

Ngoi ra cc hot ng u t, kinh doanh ng gp gi tr gia tng vo GDP, nhng li ng thi gy ra h qu xu, c bit l ph hoi v lm nhim mi trng, buc x hi phi chi ph tn km khc phc. Tng trng kinh t c nh gi bng GDP khng tnh ti tc hi i vi mi trng l bt tng lai tr gi cho thnh tch trc mt. "GDP xanh".

1.2 S CAN THIET PHAI TANG TRNG NHAN

Tang trng nhanh la ieu kien can e xoa oi giam ngheo Tang trng nhanh e cung co quyen lc cua chnh phu. Tang trng nhanh tao the thuan li tren ban am phan quoc te. Tang trng nhanh gop phan cung co quoc phong

1.1.3 IEU KIEN E TANG TRNG NHANH

1)On nh kinh te v mo 2)Coi trong von con ngi 3)ng dung khoa hoc cong nghe 4)Tao ieu kien cho th trng hoat ong 5)M ca nen kinh te 6)Thong nhat y ch

1.1.4 MUC TIEU CUA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Nang cao mc song em lai cho moi cong dan long t tin, t trong vao ban than; t hao ve at nc va dan toc M rong s la chon

1.1.5

Cung lao ong cao

Sc khoe kem

That nghiep Nang suat thap

Cau lao ong thap

Dan so tang

Ky nang au t tha yeu

e nhieu

Thu nhap thap Mc song thap

Tch luy thap

Thieu t tin, Khong t quyet nh Han che s t trong la chon t hao Cam chu le thuoc

1.2.1 CAC CH TIEU THE HIEN S TANG TRNG

* Toc o tang
g =

trng lien hoan GDP Yt Y Yt 1

Y = Yt 1

Toc o tang trng nh 0 Y Y Y g = = t goc:Y Y0

* Toc o tang trng bnh quan hang nam a cua thi ky co n Yn nam: a = ( n 1) 1

Y1

Yn: GDP nam th n; Y1: GDP nam th

Y 2 = Y 1 + aY 1 = Y 1(1 + a ) Y 3 = Y 2 + aY 2 = Y 2(1 + a ) = Y 1(1 + a ) 2 Y 4 = Y 3(1 + a ) = Y 1(1 + a ) 3 ....... Yn = Yn 1 (1 + a ) = Y 1(1 + a ) n 1 Yn (1 + a ) = Y1 LayCanBac (n 1)haive

n 1

1+ a = a=
n 1

n 1

Yn Y1

Yn 1 Y1

1.2.2 CAC CH TIEU THAY OI C CAU 1. Ty trong CN/GDP, DV/GDP ngay cang tang; NN/GDP ngay cang giam 2. Ty le lao ong CN/l XH; lao ong DV/l XH ngay cang tang; lao ongNN/l XH ngay cang giam 3. Ty le dan thanh th/dan so ngay cang tang 4. Ty le tch luy S/Y, ty le au t I/Y ngay cang tang

1.2.3.CAC CH TIEU TIEN BO VAN HOA, XA HOI

1- Toc o tang dan so [(tong so sinh +nhap c)-(tong so chet +di c)] -----------------------------------------------------dan so trung bnh 2- So con trung bnh cua 1 phu n trong o tuoi co kha nang sinh e (15-49 tuoi) 3- So ngi dan/ bac s, y ta, can bo y te 4-Tuoi tho trung bnh 5- Ty le biet ch cua ngi > 15 tuoi

1.2.4 CAC CH TIEU VE MOI TRNG

1- o che phu rng Dien tch rng / dien tch lanh tho 2- So m3 nc sach/ngi/nam

Ii + Il + Ie HDI = 3

Ch so phat trien con ngi HDI ( human development index) la ch tieu tong hp cua 3 ch tieu : __ Thu nhap bnh quan au ngi ( c anh gia theo phng phap PPP) __ Tuoi tho trung bnh __ Trnh o van hoa: xac nh tren c s ty le ngi biet oc, biet viet va ty le ang ky hoc bnh quan cac cap lp (hay so nam i hoc bnh quan) Ch so HDI co gia tr t 0 en 1, nc nao co gia tr HDI ln hn co ngha la co s phat trien con ngi cao hn. Ch so HDI c tnh toan theo cong thc sau: Il: ch so tuoi tho Ie: ch so trnh o van hoa Ii: ch so thu nhap/ngi

(2e1 + e 2) Ie = 3

e1: ch so biet ch e2: ch so ang ky hoc cac cap lp e1i: ty le biet ch cua nc i e1max: ty le biet ch cao nhat TG e1 min: ty le biet ch thap nhat TG e2i: ty le ang ky hoc cua nc i e2max: ty le ang ky hoc cao nhat TG e2min: ty le ang ky hoc thap nhat TG

(e1i e1 min) e1 = (e1 max e1 min) (e2i e2 min) e2 = (e2 max e2 min)

( Ili Il m in) Il = ( Il m ax Il m in)

Ili: tuoi tho trung bnh cua nc i Ilmax: tuoi tho trung bnhcao nhat TG Ilmin: tuoi tho trung bnh thap nhat TG

log( Ii ) log(Im in) Ii = log(Im ax) log(Im in)

Ii: thu nhap trung bnh cua nc i Imax: thu nhap trung bnh cao nhat TG Imin: thu nhap trung bnh thap nhat TG

Ch so phat trien con ngi HDI cua Cote Divoire

(e1i e1 m in) ( 47 ,8 0) = = 0,478 (e1 m e1 m ax in) (100 0) (e 2i e 2 m in) (0,38 0) e2 = = = 0,38 (e 2 m e 2 m ax in) (100 0) ( 2e1 +e 2) ( 2.0,478 +0,38 ) Ie = = = 0,445 3 3 ( Li L m in) ( 47 ,8 25 ) Il = = = 0,38 ( L m L m ax in) (85 25 ) log( Ii ) log(Im in ) log( 1630 ) log( 100 ) Ii = = = 0,46 log(Im ax ) log(Im in ) log( 40 .000 ) log( 100 ) (0,445 +0,38 +0,46 ) H I = D = 0,428 3 e1 =

Nc nay co HDI la 0,428< 0,5 nen la nc kem phat trien

Kinh t Vit Nam qua 20 nm i mi

2005 Tc tng GDP Tc tng trng Nng nghip Tc tng trng cng nghip Tc tng trng dch v T trng NN/GDP T trng CN/GDP T trng dch v/GDP Thu nhp/ngi 7,5%/nm(962005) 5,5%/nm 8,4%

15%/nm

7,5%/nm 46,3% (1988) 21,6% (1988) 33,1% (1988) 200$ (1990) 20,9% 41% 38,1% 640$

1.3 PHAN LOAI CAC NC

1) Cac nc CN hang au TG (G8) 2) Cac nc phat trien khac

3) Cac nc ang PT LICs (Nam A, NiCs ( ong A, MICs ong My Latinh) Nam A, Tr/ ong Tay Phi)

iem cua cac nc phat trien/ (ke

Thu nhap cao / thap Khoa hoc ky thuat tien tien/ lac hau C cau KT chu yeu la CN, DV/NN The che chnh tr, xa hoi, phap luat hoan chnh/kem Dan tr cao/thap dan

1.4 NHNG TR NGAI TRONG QUA TRNH PHAT TRIEN

1. Bat on chnh tr 2. Chien tranh xam lc hay noi chien 3. Sai lam trong ng loi chnh sach, trong viec thc hien chnh sach 4. Hanh chnh quan lieu 5. Toc o tang dan so cao 6. Canh tranh quoc te gay gat.

VAI TRO CUA NHA NC TRONG QUA TRNH PHAT T

Gi gn oc lap dan toc. nh hng chien lc phat trien La chon qui mo bc i cua cong cuoc cai cach To chc, phoi hp ieu hoa cac hoat ong Xay dng, hoan thien he thong luat phap Cung cap hang hoa congcong:CSHT,VH,Y te Can oi ngan sach Tao ra va hoan thien th trng