Professional Documents
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Project Aardvark
Presentation to the Board of Directors January 29, 2010
Goldman Stanley
Confidential Draft
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Aardvark Valuation
Potential Acquisitions Process Recommendations Appendix
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Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
As of January 29, 2010, Aardvarks share price and valuation are at all-time highs, having more than doubled since early 2009 As Aardvarks stock price has soared in value, it has also generated over $35B in cash & cash-equivalents As Aardvarks cash balance grows, it is likely to face shareholder pressure to reinvest the cash in its business and to make significant acquisitions Given Aardvarks strong currency and cash balance, it could easily make several tuck-in acquisitions or larger-scale acquisitions to acquire customers Such a strategy would allow Aardvark to capture more of the smartphone, laptop, and desktop markets, and significantly improve its software offerings Given Aardvarks cash position, such acquisitions could be made with 100% cash or in the case of a larger deal, stock could also be used
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Valuation
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary
Aardvarks current share price of $192.61 far exceeds the value implied by comparable public companies Recent comparable transactions show higher implied valuation ranges due to flurry of consolidation and hardware M&A activity over 2009 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis under base-case assumptions shows implied valuation on-par with Aardvarks current share price, implying that share price is justified All valuation analysis is based on base-case financial projections in line with Wall Street analyst expectations Given Aardvarks cash balance and high valuation multiples vs. similar public companies, few competitors are well-positioned to make substantial acquisitions
Goldman Stanley
Forward EV / EBITDA:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
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(1) EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges. (2) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
Goldman Stanley
(1) EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges. (2) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
Value Revenue Revenue $ 2,714 $ 1,265 $ 1,223 2,386 288 320 1,147 611 542 2,085 301 375 5,392 13,256 12,462 2,063 621 633
Revenue Revenue EBITDA(1) EBITDA(1) 2.1 x 2.2 x 17.8 x 24.6 x 8.3 x 7.5 x 15.5 x 21.6 x 1.9 x 2.1 x 10.9 x 12.3 x 6.9 x 5.6 x 39.7 x 32.8 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 8.7 x 9.6 x 3.3 x 3.3 x 13.2 x 16.5 x 8.3 x 6.0 x 2.7 x 1.9 x 0.4 x 7.5 x 5.0 x 2.7 x 2.1 x 0.4 x 39.7 x 17.3 x 14.4 x 11.5 x 8.7 x 32.8 x 23.9 x 19.1 x 13.4 x 9.6 x
5,392 $ 13,256 $ 12,462 $ 2,632 1,104 1,075 2,235 $ 616 $ 587 $ 2,068 378 417 1,147 288 320
Goldman Stanley
Revenue: EBITDA: Operating Income: Less: Taxes Plus: Depreciation Plus: Amortization Plus: Stock-Based Compensation Less: Increase in Working Capital: Less: Capital Expenditures Unlevered Free Cash Flow Present Value of Free Cash Flow
$53,631 $ 62,749 $ 69,651 $ 75,919 $ 81,234 $16,480 $ 19,282 $ 21,403 $ 23,329 $ 24,962 $14,635 $ 17,133 $ 19,030 $ 20,761 $ 22,218 ($4,391) $918 $40 $888 $2,136 ($1,430) ($5,140) $1,073 $37 $1,038 $1,815 ($1,673) ($5,709) $1,192 $28 $1,153 $1,374 ($1,857) ($6,228) $1,299 $13 $1,256 $1,248 ($2,024) ($6,665) $1,390 $10 $1,344 $1,058 ($2,166)
Model Uses Base Case Financial Projections Mid-Year Convention Used For PV Of Cash Flows
$12,795 $ 14,284 $ 15,211 $ 16,324 $ 17,189 $12,064 $ 11,971 $ 11,332 $ 10,811 $ 10,119
Aardvark - Net Present Value Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDA Multiples Discount Rate $ 204.96 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 4.0 x $ 170.39 $ 165.99 $ 161.81 $ 157.83 $ 154.03 5.0 x $ 187.23 $ 182.09 $ 177.20 $ 172.54 $ 168.11 6.0 x $ 204.06 $ 198.18 $ 192.59 $ 187.26 $ 182.19 7.0 x $ 220.90 $ 214.27 $ 207.97 $ 201.98 $ 196.28 8.0 x $ 237.74 $ 230.37 $ 223.36 $ 216.70 $ 210.36 9.0 x $ 254.58 $ 246.46 $ 238.75 $ 231.42 $ 224.44
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Potential Acquisitions
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Potential Acquisitions
Given Aardvarks large cash balance, it could make a wide variety of acquisitions ranging from small tuck-in deals to acquire technology and IP to larger deals driven by customer or market share acquisition
Tier 2 Potential Acquisitions Tier 2 acquisition candidates are worth less than $1 billion and would enhance Aardvarks core technology and fill in gaps in existing products Potential acquisitions include specialized chipset and semiconductor companies as well as Web 2.0, social media, and mobile software companies
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Financial Information(1): Market Cap: Cash: 2009 Revenue: 2009 EPS: 2010E Revenue: 2010E EPS:
$250.00
Products: Processors ARM provides 32-bit embedded microprocessors based on a common architecture that delivers high-performance, power efficiency, and reduced system cost. System IP Serves as the connection between processors, memory, and peripherals to ensure optimum performance. Multimedia ARM provides graphics processors that enable embedded graphics, audio, and video applications. Physical IP Provides SoC integrated circuits and logic, embedded memory, and interface IP. Tools ARM subsidiaries provide compilers, debuggers, simulators, and other optimization tools for a wide variety of chip and processor families.
(1) Financial data as of January 29, 2010.
Key Partners: Electronic Arts, LSI Logic, Microsoft, National Semiconductor, Nokia, NVIDIA, Rambus, Real Networks, Samsung, and Toshiba.
$200.00
Share Price
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00 $0.00
Volume (MM)
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Financial Information(1): Market Cap: Cash: 2009 Revenue: 2009 EPS: 2010E Revenue: 2010E EPS:
$100.00 $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00
Products: BlackBerry Pearl 3G Provides Trackpad and dedicated media keys as well as SureType technology and 3G network support. BlackBerry Bold Provides extended battery life as well as GPS, Wi-Fi, and 3G network support. BlackBerry Curve 8500 Includes Trackpad and dedicated media keys, easy media sharing, and 2.0 MP camera. BlackBerry Tour 9630 Provides GPS, worldwide compatibility, and 3.2 MP camera. BlackBerry Storm Features Wi-Fi, SurePress technology, and 3G network support. BlackBerry Curve 8900 Features thin, lightweight design as well as GPS and Wi-Fi support and 3.2 MP camera.
Volume (MM)
Share Price
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Process Recommendations
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Key Recommendations
We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 acquisition candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Aardvark as a potential acquirer M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Aardvark may do additional research to determine other potential acquisitions and then approach them Targeted Buy-Side M&A < 5 parties 6 months to 1 year Close-ended Higher success probability Broad Buy-Side M&A 10 100 companies Time required is highly variable Iterative process Lower success probability
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Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendation
Targeted Discussions + Broader Search
RECOMMENDED
Combination of targeted discussions plus broader search conducted in background maximizes success probability and minimizes disruption to Aardvark Additional parties contacted depend on responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 companies Interested parties would sign NDAs and then proceed into due diligence and valuation discussions with Aardvark
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Appendix
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FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E $42,905 $25,324 $17,581 $830 $3,566 $4,397 $734 $0 $710 $53,631 $31,655 $21,976 $1,038 $4,458 $5,496 $918 $40 $888 $62,749 $37,037 $25,712 $1,214 $5,216 $6,430 $1,073 $37 $1,038 $69,651 $41,111 $28,540 $1,348 $5,789 $7,137 $1,192 $28 $1,153 $75,919 $44,811 $31,109 $1,469 $6,311 $7,780 $1,299 $13 $1,256 $81,234 $47,948 $33,286 $1,572 $6,752 $8,324 $1,390 $10 $1,344
$24,578 $16,282 $8,296 $596 $2,724 $3,320 $327 $0 $242 $4,407 $647 $0 ($48) $5,006 $1,511 $3,495 $3.93 889,292 $4,649 $4,976 $4,735
$8,327 $11,740 $14,635 $17,133 $19,030 $20,761 $22,218 $653 $407 $424 $568 $1,443 $1,780 $3,223 $0 $0 ($45) ($90) ($90) ($90) ($90) ($33) ($81) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,947 $12,066 $15,014 $17,610 $20,383 $22,450 $25,351 $2,828 $3,831 $4,504 $5,283 $6,115 $6,735 $7,605 $6,119 $6.78 902,139 $8,843 $9,339 $8,505 $24.17 $8,235 $9.08 907,005 $12,450 $13,184 $10,311 $34.56 $10,510 $11.59 907,005 $15,523 $16,480 $13,061 $47.17 $12,327 $13.59 907,005 $18,171 $19,282 $14,618 $61.94 $14,268 $15.73 907,005 $20,183 $21,403 $16,158 $78.98 $15,715 $17.33 907,005 $22,017 $23,329 $17,507 $97.70 $17,746 $19.56 907,005 $23,562 $24,962 $19,382 $118.76
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EBITDA Margin(2) 2009 14.3% 6.7% 28.9% 38.8% 3.9% 38.8% 28.9% 14.3% 6.7% 3.9% 30.7% 2010E 14.6% 7.5% 31.0% 45.9% 8.7% 45.9% 31.0% 14.6% 8.7% 7.5% 30.7%
Price Value Value 2009 2010E 2009 2010E 2009 2010E Growth $ 47.07 $ 114,779 $ 124,430 $ 114,552 $ 124,179 $ 16,433 $ 18,186 $ 3.14 $ 3.87 8.4% 12.90 25,241 15,080 51,430 55,380 3,426 4,129 0.79 1.18 7.7% 22.47 131,739 106,671 34,807 41,163 10,076 12,774 0.97 1.38 18.3% 19.40 107,224 92,786 32,784 39,941 12,708 18,332 0.41 1.17 21.8% 6.15 14,239 10,665 23,457 22,056 926 1,927 (1.70) 0.14 (6.0%) $ 47.07 $ 131,739 $ 124,430 $ 114,552 $ 124,179 $ 16,433 $ 18,332 $ 22.47 114,779 106,671 51,430 55,380 12,708 18,186 $ 19.40 $ 107,224 $ 92,786 $ 34,807 $ 41,163 $ 10,076 $ 12,774 $ 12.90 25,241 15,080 32,784 39,941 3,426 4,129 6.15 14,239 10,665 23,457 22,056 926 1,927 $ 192.06 $ 176,796 $ 141,401 $42,905 $ 53,631 $13,184 $16,480 3.14 $ 0.97 0.79 $ 0.41 (1.70) $9.08 $ 3.87 1.38 1.18 1.17 0.14 11.59 21.8% 18.3% 8.4% 7.7% (6.0%) 25.0%
Valuation Statistics Share Company Name Hewlett-Packard Company Dell Inc. Cisco Systems, Inc. Intel Corporation Motorola, Inc. Maximum 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile Minimum Aardvark
(1)
Capitalization Equity Enterprise Price Value Value $ 47.07 $ 114,779 $ 124,430 12.90 25,241 15,080 22.47 131,739 106,671 19.40 107,224 92,786 6.15 14,239 10,665 $ 47.07 $ 131,739 $ 124,430 22.47 114,779 106,671 $ 19.40 $ 107,224 $ 92,786 12.90 25,241 15,080 6.15 14,239 10,665 $ 192.06 $ 176,796 $ 141,401
Enterprise Value / Revenue 2009 1.1 x 0.3 x 3.1 x 2.8 x 0.5 x 3.1 x 2.8 x 1.1 x 0.5 x 0.3 x 3.3 x 2010E 1.0 x 0.3 x 2.6 x 2.3 x 0.5 x 2.6 x 2.3 x 1.0 x 0.5 x 0.3 x 2.6 x
Enterprise Value / EBITDA(2) 2009 7.6 x 4.4 x 10.6 x 7.3 x 11.5 x 11.5 x 10.6 x 7.6 x 7.3 x 4.4 x 10.7 x 2010E 6.8 x 3.7 x 8.4 x 5.1 x 5.5 x 8.4 x 6.8 x 5.5 x 5.1 x 3.7 x 8.6 x P / E Multiple 2009 15.0 x 16.4 x 23.1 x 47.2 x NM 47.2 x 29.1 x 19.7 x 16.1 x 15.0 x 21.2 x 2010E 12.2 x 10.9 x 16.3 x 16.6 x 44.6 x 44.6 x 16.6 x 16.3 x 12.2 x 10.9 x 16.6 x
Goldman Stanley
(1) Share prices as of January 29, 2010. (2) Excludes stock-based compensation and non-recurring charges. (3) Revenue growth from Apples FY2009 through FY2010E.
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Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation Levered Equity Name Hewlett-Packard Company Dell Inc. Cisco Systems, Inc. Intel Corporation Motorola, Inc. Median Aardvark Beta Debt Value Tax Rate 1.04 $ 15,830 $ 114,779 20.0% 1.31 3,793 25,241 27.0% 1.23 10,273 131,739 22.0% 1.17 2,224 107,224 33.0% 1.87 3,925 14,239 34.0% 1.23 1.57
(1) (1) (1)
Aardvark - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation Unlevered Beta Aardvark 1.16 Debt
(1)
Equity Value
(1)
$0 $ 176,796
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: WACC
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