Agricultural Innovation Systems and Rural Transformation in India and China

Prof. Ye Chunhui (based on a paper by R. Raina, G. Shulin, Y. Chunhui, T. Qui, Y. Xiao)

23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Key Messages
URGENT ATTENTION TO INNOVATION AND DEVELOPMENT FOCUS ON PRODUCTIVITY, RESPONSIVENESS AND RESILIENCE SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS TO STRENGTHEN THE LINKAGES (BACKWARD AND FORWARD ) IN THE LOCAL ECONOMY INVESTMENTS IN LOCATION-SPECIFIC DECENTRALIZED INNOVATION CAPACITIES AND INCENTIVES - The usual recommendation to move farmers into non-farm urban jobs, enhance capital investments and supply of technologies will not work. - Rural transformation in India and China needs institutional reform to enable decentralized agricultural innovation capacities.
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

India-China: poverty amidst plenty

India-China: 49-51% of global chronic poverty, 55 % of global extreme poverty (McKay and Baulch, 2004) India-China PERSISTENT RURAL poverty
(Glauben et al, 2012; Planning Commission, 2010)

Regional differentiation higher dependence on agrarian incomes India higher probability to remain poor for longer
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Persistent problem structural unemployment continues

Feature of the economy 1 2 3 4 5 China (%) 1980 2010 Growth rate-GDP 7.8 9.58 Share of agriculture in 30 GDP 10 Agriculture- value added 191 per worker 525 Share of industry in GDP 48 47 Rural population in total 80 (Source: World Bank, WDI), CSO) 55 India (%) 1980 2010 5.6 36 19 313 468 25 26 77 70 8.37

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Inclusion??
Re-distribution with increased expenditure or flagship programmes for the poor Public sector mandates to target rural areas and backward regions New private and public-private partnerships and investments in industry extractive and manufacturing Attempts to enable and promote pro-poor knowledge and technology generation
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Theoretical underpinning
Constructive welfare economics Sen -poverty as capacity deprivation - removal of impediments political, legal, financial, - capacity building investments in education and health Brings us to the how question

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

How?
Understand inclusion through evidence of exclusion - How do capacity deprivation, financial and political impediments, access to health care and education exist? How have they evolved? Understand innovation systems through analysis of innovation system components - How do peoples capacities, their eco-systems, production systems and knowledge requirements enter the innovation system components of R&D, demand, intermediary, enterprise, and policy? How are they addressed?

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Agricultural/Rural Resources -theories on how to mobilize

Nurkse (1951) idle labour in peasant households use for capital formation in rural economy Lewis (1954), Fie and Ranis (1964) resource transfer surpluses from agriculture to industry Schultz (1963), Mellor (1976) rapid growth in agriculture through technological changeleading economic role of modern agriculture
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Major differences in agriculture

Sl.No Agricultural production features . 1. Foodgrain production growth rate (%) 2. Agrl GDP-Regional growth rates (%) China 1980 8.38 East: 17.48 Central: 13.98 West: 14.43 2010 2.9 India 1980 2010 5.88 2.27 (1980-90) (2000-10) North Western Region 3.39 2.85 Eastern Region 1.3 1.76 Central Region 2.06 2.70 Southern Region 1.82 1.78 (1980-90) (2000-06) 38.72 63.20

4.6
4.3 5.7

3.

Irrigated area (m.ha)

44.88

59.26

4.
5. 6.

Gross cropped area (m.ha)

Fertilizer use (m.tonnes NPK) Mechanization (no. of tractors)

117.23
12.69 2.61 m

109.87
54.60 21.78 m

172.63
5.51 0.075

195.10
26.48 0.5 m

7.
8.

Fruit and vegetable processing (value Billion US$) Agricultural trade (constant US $ 1999- 10.59 2000) (Billion US$) 4.37 Exports 6.22 Imports

23.8
121.96 49.41 72.55 2.87

4.76
31 17 14

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Crop

All-India Area, Production and Yield of Major Crops and proportion of area Irrigated over time (Source:: Agricultural Statistics at a glance) Area (Million Hectares) Production (Million tonnes) Yield (Kg/hectare) Area under Irrigation (%)

196061

198 2000 0-81 -01 126. 67 40.1 5 22.2 8 41.7 8 22.4 6 17.6 121. 05 44.7 1 25.7 3 30.2 6 20.3 5 22.7 7 8.53 4.32

200809 122.8 3 45.54 27.75 27.45

1960 -61 82.0 2 34.5 8 11.0 0 23.7 4 12.7 0 6.98

198081 129.5 9 53.63 36.31 29.02

2000-01

200809 234.47

196 198 200 200 196 198 200 200 0-61 0-81 0-01 8-09 0-61 0-81 0-01 7-08 710 102 3 133 6 163 0 695 162 6 190 1 270 8 102 7 544 190 9 217 8 290 7 145 9 659 19.1 29.7 43.4 46.8

Food grain Rice Wheat Coarse cereals Total Pulses Major Oilseeds Cotton Sugarca ne

115.58

196.81

34.13 12.93 44.96

84.98 69.68 31.08

99.18 80.68 40.04

101 3 851 528

36.8 32.7 7.7

40.7 76.5 9.2

53.6 88.1 12.5

56.9 90.9 14.2

23.56

22.09

10.63

11.08

14.57

539

473

8.0

9.0

12.5

16.2

13.77

27.56

9.37

18.44

27.72

507

532

810

100 6 403 645 53

3.3

14.5

23.0

27.1

7.61 2.42

7.82 2.67

9.41 4.42

5.60 110. 00

7.01 154.2 5

9.52 295.96

22.28 285.03

125 455 49

152 578 44

190 685 77

12.7 69.3

27.3 81.2

34.3 92.1

35.1 93.5

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

All-China Area, Production and Yield along with coverage under Irrigation Crop Area (Million Hectares) Production (Million tonnes) Yield (Kg/hectare)

1961- 1980- 2000- 2008- 1961- 1980- 2000- 2008- 1961- 1980- 2000- 200862 81 01 09 62 81 01 09 62 81 01 09 Food grain Rice Wheat Major Oilseed s Cotton Sugarca ne Sugar Crops
23/24-7-2012

121.6 117.2 106.0 108.9 154.4 320.5 452.6 530.8 2 3 8 9 1 6 4 2 26.94 33.88 28.81 29.63 62.99 139.9 177.5 195.1 1 8 0 24.08 28.84 24.66 24.29 16.67 55.21 93.87 115.1 2 4.15 7.93 14.63 13.65 2.00 7.69 28.65 31.54

1270

2734

4267

4870

2338 692 482

4130 1914 970

6163 3806 1919

6585 4739 2311

3.50 0.15 0.24

5.19 0.48 0.92

4.81 1.25 1.65

4.95 1.70 1.88

0.75 3.44 3.78

2.71

5.32

6.38

214

550

1091

1288

22.81 75.66 115.5 22357 47562 60625 68093 9 29.11 86.55 122.7 15958 31566 52321 65303 7

SIID India-China team

Fertilizer consumption- States in India (Kg./ha. NSA)

State Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Jujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal West Bengal India
23/24-7-2012

1995-96 134.26 12.48

2000-01 160.54 34.59 74.19* 46.09 70.22 152.13 37.50 58.28 109.76 57.31 39.07 75.18 40.52 166.69 34.57 151.94 118.93* 119.02 88.93
SIID India-China team

2005-06 203.61 49.26 125.32 67.36 111.07 166.72 48.75 81.31 67.61 117.34 57.00 47.13 84.52 57.33 210.06 36.29 183.67 140.37 94.24 127.50 104.50

2008-09 239.71 62.09 178.98 80.74 140.71 201.62 60.58 93.34 55.72 147.28 89.41 70.77 113.69 61.64 221.42 48.85 216.54 156.31 123.31 157.69 128.58

74.74 121.16 30.53 47.55 78.33 66.31 42.87 64.42 24.57 162.97 32.66 120.53 106.2 94.48 74.38

Fertilizer consumption China provinces (kg./ha. NSA)

state Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong
23/24-7-2012

95-96 351.11 238.88 292.27 206.51 116.99 305.14 263.60 129.56 399.49 387.54 247.99 297.20 382.65 187.52 340.11 281.71 316.66 210.79 345.56

00-01 406.31 317.72 304.09 231.19 138.94 276.94 233.33 123.33 413.53 434.59 278.20 321.42 432.72 198.20 380.43 336.46 327.55 232.36 375.69
SIID India-China team

05-06 463.22 572.36 349.90 283.18 194.99 333.87 304.66 138.89 361.24 463.09 374.29 334.81 540.60 251.09 455.45 386.12 423.88 294.53 483.97

08-09 424.87 568.98 359.80 278.11 222.44 328.65 322.60 148.98 361.02 450.90 371.29 340.19 525.69 247.38 441.90 424.29 435.34 278.58 506.26

Fertilizer (kg/ha. NSA)

Guangxi Hainan Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Tibet Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang CHINA
23/24-7-2012

224.61 208.80 0.00 198.97 141.08 190.40 128.89 241.77 151.44 116.94 184.07 249.90 251.22

267.33 309.74 204.17 221.49 150.51 202.37 129.93 302.64 179.19 136.11 244.14 244.70 273.21
SIID India-China team

379.14 564.77 261.88 244.28 180.25 260.38 188.84 375.80 209.09 139.21 287.57 286.36 323.87

382.05 549.80 266.30 256.21 173.82 264.35 195.66 399.36 206.67 157.56 283.69 319.27 330.26

State-wise proportion of area under dominant crops and fertilizer use (Source: DES, 2010; Beiintemma et al, 2008)
100.00
Total area under 5 major Crops and Fruits & Vegetables in GCA - 2006-09 (%)

90.00 Uttar Pradesh 80.00 70.00 60.00 Madhya Pradesh 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 Rajasthan Maharashtra Gujarat Orissa

Bihar

Punjab

West Bengal Haryana Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu

Karnataka

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

Fertilizer Consum ption - 2006-09 (Kg/Hectare) Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Bihar Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Orissa West Bengal Haryana Punjab All india Karnataka Rajasthan All india

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Evidence of exclusion Agricultural Innovation

Eastern India and Western China Slowing down of yield growth rates-major cereals Incremental response to inputs limited Public and private supply of modern inputs Rainfed agriculture/ drylands/ mountain ecosystems poor and neglected Resource extraction and degradation- high Global trade vs. domestic markets Gender relationships neglected Agricultural markets- poorly developed
SIID India-China team

23/24-7-2012

The Excluded Rural in India: Diversity within a common Development Framework

5 Rural MSME Clusters 2 Agricultural Innovation cases Rainfed Agriculture (MP & AP) North Eastern States Plantation Sysfems Inclusive Agri Biotech Hyd Rice

23-24/7/2012

SIID team China-India

Agricultural Innovation - India

From secondary data the rainfed farming states , plantations and Northeastern states From district level comparative analysis 2 states AP and MP 2 districts Low-Low and Low-High (rainfall and irrigation) intensity From case analyses Private groundwater sharing project (Kadiri, Anantapur AP), Chetna organics (Adilabad- AP), pulse production systems in tribal villages (Dewas MP), organic kodu rice systems (East Nimad MP), Hybrid rice, Agri-biotech for Drylands, Water use and governance NorthEastern states, eauctions and cardamom markets- South India.
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Sampling through mapping Mapping the diversity: The Five Rural Chinas
Source: OECD 2009: 72-74 Mapping/structuring modes/patterns/factors creates a value for conditional generalization and comparison
1The rural The West provinces
Population 28% The Middle, such as Anhui 44%

poor 2The rural with strong outmigration

3The rural dependent on grain production

The northeast provinces

The costal provinces: Shandong, Zhejiang, Fijian, Guangdong

11%

2
23-24/7/2012

4The rural diversified

15%

5The periSIID team China-India urban rural

Beijing, Tianjun, Jiangsu

2%

Agricultural Innovation - China

From secondary data County level comparative analyses Anhui and Zhejiang province. Case analyses Farmers Co-operatives, Fruit production and marketing,

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Agricultural Administration and R&D India and China

Decreasing share of public investment Focused on irrigated monocrop-cereals Mainly public sector R&D and extension accounting for nearly 50 % of global developing country agricultural research expenditure Limited contextual understanding Limited investment and support for rainfed, mountain ecosytems.
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Key differences- AIS

India
Central government leading agricultural innovation Land ownership , tenancy and reverse tenancy increasing R&D institutes under Central or State governments Extension under state governments Export oriented production Civic space active in local agriculture limited state support

China

Provincial governments leading agricultural innovation Land on lease from the state (more equal access to land) Half the R&D institutes under County/Township governments Extension under County/Township and provincial governments Domestic markets oriented production Private corporate sector with state support and finance

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

 Farmers autonomous grouping -seeking an appropriate problem articulation and solution-

Features of inclusive agricultural innovation systems- Indian and Chinese cases

- ownership of institutional change - changing role from farmer to trader/processor/input producer, -entrepreneurship skills developed with experience, through training, expert assistance.

The state and its responsiveness

- demand for or support for technology or legal and institutional changes supported - responding to needs articulated by farmers, consumers, etc. -local government ownership and support for increased participation of farmers in production and distribution activities.
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

(contd.)
-Local (county and township) governments incentives, awards, for innovative institutional arrangements and technologies - Provision of public space and facilities for market promotion especially domestic market - Investment and infrastructure support after proof of concept stage including support for venture capital, core support for co-operatives and producer organizations - Linkages enabled and research conducted with expertise/scientists within and outside the county - Support for input production and marketing firms (exclusively Chinese AIS features in red)
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Agricultural Innovation and Rural Transformation

Farmers agency and autonomy Coalition of local actors + support from local government, expertise, Agriculture adds employment on farm and more off-farm (local manufacturing and service sectors) Community ownership, decisions on resource use, re-investment in farm and local non-farm sectors. (Mobilization, surplus transfer, blanket technical change theories????)
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team

Crucial interventions
Policy goal

Productive and sustainable agriculture, employing and creating incomes in farm and off-farm occupations
Policy instruments Creation of decentralized innovation capacities and governance in agriculture Evidence and communication on exclusion or drivers of exclusion Public investment in critical infrastructure, fiscal decentralization and local knowledge and accountability Cutting edge science and technology Support for legal and institutional changes to reform drivers of exclusion

23/24-7-2012

SIID India-China team

Limitations
Innovation systems limited engagement with development economics, politics, social and cultural features of agriculture Inadequate understanding of forms and magnitudes of exclusion and new challenges Size and complexity of Indian and Chinese agriculture secondary data analysis and case studies are not enough Administrative and R&D changes contingent upon political willingness.
23/24-7-2012 SIID India-China team