Indian Import Data:

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Seair Exim Solution Along with studying global demands of goods/services Indian Import Data details, Daily lists of Indian ports like jnpt, Delhi, Chennai, nahava sheva, Mumbai. India Import Data provided by SEAIR EXIM.

Broad Outline
Indias increased presence in the global economy accompanied by increasing integration with the developing Asia. Other than with China , integration with the most dynamic segment of the region-South East Asia- has increased rapidly in the last few years. But has Indias presence made a significant impact on developing Asian countries trade? If yes, where? What is the nature of integration where India has a large presence? What is the impact of Indias investment on developing Asia?

Indias Increasing Presence in the Global Economy

India Relative to the World (Percentage Shares)
1985 1995 2000 2005 2006

Exports of goods and services (Constant 2000 US$) India 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.07 1.05

Imports of goods and services (constant 2000 US$)

India

0.49

0.81

0.81

1.00

GDP (Constant 2000 US$) India 1 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9

GDP, PPP (Constant 2005 international $) India 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.5

Trends in the direction of trade: Evidence of greater Integration with developing Asia
Share of India's exports
60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

Share of India's imports

10.0
0.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Industrial countries

Asian developing countries

Industrial countries

Asian developing countries

Indias integration with developing Asia evident in both exports and import trends.

Pattern of Integration with Developing Asia

12.0

Share of India's Exports

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 0.0 1998

Share of India's Imports

10.0
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

2000

2002

2003

2006

South Asia

SE Asia

China

South Asia

SE Asia

China

Increasing importance of China and South-East Asia in Indias exports and imports. South Asias role much smaller- especially in Indias imports. Integration with China, SE Asia dominating aspect of integration with dev. Asia

Indias Presence in South-East Asian countries Trade

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Singapore Thailand
2003-2006

2.6 1.9 1.5 1.0

1998-2002

2.0
1.6

2.0

2.1

1.5

0.8 0.4 0.5

Increase in Indias presence in South-East Asian countries trade, especially in recent years. But India has not yet made a big impact in overall trade of the countries of this region- accounts for maximum 3% of trade

Indias Presence in South Asian countries Trade

70.0 61.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Afghanistan Nepal Bangladesh Sri Lanka Pakistan 8.0 7.1 8.8 8.8 1.4 2.7 7.1 14.9
2004-2006

39.5

1998-2003

India relatively more important for South Asian countries.

Significant increase in Indias share in the case of Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan. Indias importance for Bangladesh more or less constant

Nature and Pattern of South Asian Countries Integration with India:

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

Indias Share in Bangladesh's Export and Import

$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1999 2000 1.1 1.1 2001 2002 1.4 1.2
$50 $50 $61 $39 $55

16.0 12.3 10.5 13.3

$119

14.6

15.2

15.1

14.1

$147

14.0 12.0

12.5 10.0 8.0

$66

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

0.9

0.7 2003

0.9 2004

0.9 2005

Exports (in US mill $)

Share in Exports

Share in Imports

Bilateral trade doubled from 1998 to 2006. Large informal trade implies integration with India more than that shown by recorded trade. But, in both, India more important as a source of imports and less as a market for Bangladeshs exports.

2006

Reasons for Ballooning Trade Deficit

Bangladeshs trade regime more liberal in terms of the length of time, the coverage of items and pace, compared to India. Level of tariffs and other protective duties on imports in India, higher than in Bangladesh even in 2001 (Islam, 2004). Between 1985 to 1999, 50% appreciation of the Taka vis--vis the Rupee (World Bank, 2006), compared to its value in mid 1980s.
Bangladeshs exports heavily biased towards textiles and ready made garments. India is itself an exporter of similar products and hence a competitor.

Other reason: Ineffectiveness of SAPTA/SAFTA

Restrictions contained in the trade agreements SAPTA & SAFTA (e.g. limited product coverage, existence of negative list, restrictive rules of origin) Also, the preferences accorded by India not much effective - are limited in terms of products that are of Bangladeshs export interests. Para-tariff and non-tariff barriers, including restrictive rules of origin Rules of Origin (ROO) hinder Bangladeshs exports to India. Quota fixed for textile exports by Bangladesh to India under trade agreement recently (since 2007) yet to be fully utilised.

Composition of Bangladeshs Imports from India: 1998-2003 and 2004-2006

Edible vegs. etc. 2% manmade staple fibres 2% Sugars & confec 2% Organic Cement etc. chem. 4% 3% Electrical/ele ctronic equipments 4% Rubber etc 2% Other Commoditie s 22% Cereals 18% manmade Other staple fibres Commodities Residues of 2% 22% food ind. Etc Cotton textls 2% 16% Cotton textls 14% Cereals 13%

Residues of food ind. Etc 3% Aluminium artcls 3%

Nonelectrical machinery Transport 8% vehicles etc 6% Iron & steel prodcts 5%

Aluminium artcls 3% Edible vegs. etc. 3%

Sugars & confectionery 3% Plastics etc 3% Electricl/elect ronic equips Iron & steel prodcts Organic 4% 5% chem. 4%

Nonelectrical machinery 8%
Mineral oil/fuels etc 7% Transport vehicles etc 7%

Basic necessities like cereal & other food items form a large part of imports in both periods. Other imports: intermediate goods, (cotton yarn, petroleum products, etc.), machinery, vehicles etc.

Some Salient Features: Disaggregated data

Shift towards import of raw cotton and machines for processing textile fibres India is one of the top-3 suppliers of textile machineries to Bangladesh in the world. Bangladesh depends on imports of input and machinery for its textiles exports It seems Bangladesh has been able to effectively use trade with India -by sourcing the required inputs and capital goods - in sustaining export of its most important foreign exchange earner - textiles and readymade garments (RMG).

Composition of Bangladeshs Export to India: 1998-2003 and 2004-2006

Apparel/a ccessories, not knit 3% Raw hides, leather etc 3% Mineral fuels/oils etc 5% Cotton textiles 2% Other commodit ies 11% Fertilizers 38%
Electrical, electronic equipment 3% Non-electrical machinery, etc 1% Raw hides, leather etc 1% Other commodities 10% Jute fibres, yarn etc 17% Cotton textiles 15%

Copper & articles 3% Fish, etc 4% Jute bags, sacks, hessian etc 6%

Inorganic chemicals, etc 38%

Edible fruit, etc 7%

Fertilizers 10%

Inorganic chemicals etc Mineral 13% fuels/oils etc 10%

India is an important market for Bangladeshs export of chemical fertilisers (urea), and its input ; anhydrous ammonia Since 2004, of the important markets-Australia, USA, France, etc. India the single largest market India accounted for nearly 88% of Bangladeshs export of urea in 2007, from 10% in 1998.

Nature of Integration: Shallow

Some diversification in Bangladeshs exports to India. But India not a large market in overall exports. Integration confined to mainly cross-border trade. Some increase in investment-but sporadic and not given rise to much trade-investment nexus yet. Some change has begun.
FDI Inflow in Bangladesh (US $ Million)

FDI
India

2000
8.4
578.6 1.45

2005
2.7
845.3 0.32

2006
1
490.3 0.20

Global Total
Indias share (%)

Indias increasing importance for Sri Lanka

In 1996, India replaced Japan as the largest source of imports to Sri Lanka. India-Sri Lanka FTA (ISLFTA) implemented in 2000 and duty free access to Indian market by 2003 in many products. India has become even more important both as a destination for Sri Lankas exports as well as a source of imports by Sri Lanka. Growing importance of India in Sri Lankas exports: from 16th in 2000, 3rd largest export destination since 2003. Growth in export earnings to India has far outstripped total export earnings for the country since 2001 and helped reduce the trade gap, in favour of Sri Lanka

Indias Share in Sri Lanka's Export and Import

20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
1999

16.5 13.8 9.5 11.1 3.6 1.5

2001 2002 2003 2004

17.3 7.0

10.0 9.1 9.0 17.3 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
2005

5.0

1.1

India's Share in Sri Lanka's Import from World India's Share in Sri Lanka's Export to World

Composition of Sri Lankas Exports to India: 1999-2002 and 2003-2005

Veg fatVanaspati oil, 1.9 Nonelectrical machinery , 2.9 Plastics & articles, 3.4 Edible fruit, etc, 3.8 Rubber & articles, 1.8 Other commoditi es , 16.5 Coffee, tea, spices , 27.1 Copper & articles, 25.6 Rubber & articles, 1.9 Wood & articles of wood , 2.0 cement, etc Other Copper & , 1.8 commoditi articles, es , 15.1 33.5 Veg fatVanaspati oil, 14.0 Electrical, electronic equipment , 8.4 Aluminiu m& articles, 5.3 Coffee, tea, spices , 6.6

Wood pulp, fibrous material, 4.0

Mineral fuels/oils , Iron & 8.7 steel products, 4.3

Nonelectrical machinery , 2.3 Wood pulp, fibrous material, 2.4

Organic Iron and chemicals , steel , 3.3 3.2

Visible shift from agricultural to manufacturing goods. Refined copper products and vansapati, main drivers of export growth in period 2003-2005. Some diversification in exports, rise of exports of electrical, electronic equipment - electric conductors and memory chips, between the two sub-periods

Strengths and weaknesses of Sri Lankas export success

Momentum in Sri Lankas exports to India, spilled over to items in Indias negative list-plastics, rubber articles, textile articles (Weerakoon, 2008) New products ceramics, value-added tea entered Sri Lankas exports to India (Kelegama, Mukherjee, 2007). But, export success driven mainly by 2 commoditiescopper articles and vanaspati Likely to be more of trade deflection. The recently signed ASEAN-India FTA could pose challenge to Sri Lankas exports of these products to India.

Investment links in Trade

Integration with India has lead to inflow of FDI, in copper products, vanaspati, cement, automobile components, chemicals, electrical equipments. India now 5th largest investor- accounts for 6% p.a. Indian investment with a view to buy back for the duty free Indian market, has contributed to exports also. Increased diversion of investment towards --services -within manufacturing towards, machinery and transport equips. Growing opportunity for intra-industry links- joint ventures already in tyres, plans to set us automobile assembly operations (Kelegama, 2009).

Composition of Indias outward FDI and Indias importance in FDI Inflows in select developing Asian countries
Developed countries, together with Channel Islands (22%) and Mauritius (8%) accounted for 70% of Indias outward FDI between 2003-2007. Within developing Asia, more developed countries like Singapore and Hong Kong together accounted for another 8%. Therefore, barring countries like, Sri Lanka and Nepal, Indias share in other dev. Asian countries is meager. Increase in Indias investment in Indonesia, Thailand, China in 2007, although very small share.

Some Tentative Observations: Possibilities of Future Integration

Indias integration with SE economies is in a nascent phase The high rate of growth in trade (and investment to some extent), in the last few years, perhaps indicates strong potential for future integration. In this, India-ASEAN FTA is also expected to play an important role. But India-ASEAN FTA could pose significant challenge for Sri Lanka India integration. That could also alter the nature and pattern of integration witnessed thus far.

Some Tentative Observations: Possibilities of Future Integration-contd.

The global financial crisis and recession in the Northern markets, also highlight the need for diversification of export markets. Recent trade info, shows the initial signs of this happening. A lot however, depends on whether India can sustain its high growth path in the aftermath of the global crisis. Given increasing protectionism in the major markets of Indias exports, thin chances of exports reaching the heights it had witnessed earlier. In this scenario, India has to depend even more on domestic demand to spur growth. Whether or not that can happen is open to debate.