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A.Nhng van e c ban cua kinh te v mo I. Mot so khai niem c ban II.

Mot so van e c ban cua kinh te v mo

A.Nhng van e c ban cua kinh te v mo


I. Mot so khai niem c ban
1.Kinh te hoc
- S gii han hoac khan hiem cac nguon tai nguyen la ly do cua viec hnh thanh va phat trien kinh te hoc. - Kinh te hoc la khoa hoc nghien cu nhng la chon cua ca nhan va xa hoi ve cach thc s dung cac nguon tai nguyen co gii han.

2. Kinh te hoc vi mo va kinh te hoc v mo

Kinh te hoc nghien cu cac hien tng va cac hoat ong kinh te di hai goc o:

- Goc o cu the tng yeu to cua nen kinh te kinh te hoc vi mo.
- Goc o tong the cua toan bo nen kinh te kinh te hoc v mo.

2.1. Kinh te hoc vi mo


Nghien cu cac bo phan hp thanh cua nen kinh te
nh: Ngi tieu dung, ngi san xuat, mot doanh nghiep, mot nganh, mot th trng.

2.2. Kinh te hoc v mo


Nghien cu toan bo nen kinh te nh mot tong the
gom: Tong cau, tong cung, tang trng kinh te, lam phat, that nghiep, xuat nhap khau, ngan sach, au t va phat trien, phan phoi nguon lc, phan phoi thu nhap.

3. Mot so ch tieu c ban cua kinh te hoc v mo


3.1. Tong san pham quoc noi GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Tong gia tr cua tat ca hang hoa va dch

vu cuoi cung c san xuat ra trong pham vi mot lanh tho, va c tnh trong mot thi ky cu the, thng la mot nam.

3.2. Tong san pham quoc dan GNP (Gross National Product)
Tong gia tr cua tat ca hang hoa va dch

vu cuoi cung c tao ra bi nhng ngi co cung quoc tch, va c tnh trong mot thi ky cu the, thng la mot nam.

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M) GNP = GDP + NFFI


NFFI (Net Foreign Factor Income): Thu nhap rong t nc ngoai. NFFI = IFFI OFFI IFFI: Thu nhap cua yeu to chuyen vao OFFI: Thu nhap yeu to chuyen ra

Bang 1: Ch tieu GDP va GNP mot so nc nam 2000


N c M y a i Loan Singapore M alaixia Vie t Nam GDP (t USD) 9837,4 309,4 92,3 89,7 31,2 GNP/GDP (% ) 97,6 101,4 107,8 89,7 98,6

Nguon: Nien giam Thong ke, 2002

3.3. GDP hay GNP bnh quan au ngi va theo sc mua tng ng
- GDP hay GNP bnh quan au ngi
Tong GDP hay GNP tren so dan cua mot quoc gia. - Theo sc mua tng ng (Purchasing Power Parity PPP) Tnh toan tren c s quy oi thu nhap cua quoc gia o theo sc mua chung cua the gii.

Bang 2: GNP/ngi va GNP/ngi theo PPP mot so nc nam 2002


N c M y Nha t I no ne xia M alaixia Philippin Singapore Tha i Lan Vie t Nam GNP/ng i 35060 33550 710 3540 1020 20690 1980 430 PPP
VT:USD

Nguon: WB (2004), Bao cao phat trien the gii.

35060 26070 2990 8280 4280 23090 6680 2240

3.4. Ch tieu phat trien con ngi (Human Development Index HDI)
Ch tieu HDI la s ket hp 3 yeu to: tuoi

tho, giao duc va GDP/ngi tnh theo PPP.


HDI = (X + Y + Z )/3 Trong o: X: Ch so tuoi tho Y: Ch so giao duc Z: Ch so thu nhap (theo PPP)

Bang 3: Ch so HDI mot so nc Asean nam 2000


N c I no ne xia M alaixia Philippin Singapore Thai Lan Vie t Nam* Ch so HDI 0,684 0,782 0,754 0,885 0,762 0,688 Xe p ha ng tre n 173 n c 110 59 77 25 70 109

*: v tr xep hang HDI cua Viet Nam nam 1995: 122 Nguon: Nien giam Thong ke, 2002

Bang 4: c tnh thi gian GDP bnh quan au ngi Viet Nam uoi kp cac nc trong khu vc
N c GDP/ng Ta ng Ta ng Th i gian na m tr ng tr ng uo i k p 2000 GDP/ na m GDP/ng ca c n c (USD) G (1999 doa n Asean 2010 (% ) (% ) (na m)

Vie t Nam 390 Tha i Lan 2000 M alaixia 3380 I no ne xia 570 Philippin 1040 Singapore 24740

7,4 4,4 5,8 4,8 4,4 5,4

6,0 3,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 3,5

57 - 58 90 - 91 13 - 14 29 - 30 173 - 174

Nguon: WB, 2002, Asea Week thang 8 - 2000 & uc tnh cua tac gia

II. Mot so van e c ban kinh te v mo


1. San lng tiem nang (Potential Output)
- Tai mc san lng tiem nang luon ton tai mot t le that nghiep nhat nh (that nghiep t nhien). - Nen kinh te co mot t le lam phat va phai. - San lng co xu hng tang len eu an theo thi gian khi cac yeu to san xuat tang len. - mc san lng tiem nang khong phai la mc san lng toi a.

o th 2.1: o th cua san lng tiem nang theo gia


P

Yp

GDPr

2. Tong cau (Aggregate Demand AD)


- Tong cau la tong gia tr hang hoa va dch vu ma cac ho gia nh, cac doanh nghiep, chnh phu va nc ngoai d kien chi tieu moi mc gia nhat nh. -Tong cau thiet lap moi quan he gia GDP thc yeu cau va mc gia trong ieu kien tat ca cac yeu to khac c gia thiet khong oi.

2.1. o th ng cau
o th 2.2
P

P1

P2 P3 0 Y1 Y2 Yp Y3 AD GDPr

Tai sao ng cau doc xuong?

2.2. ac iem cua ng cau

Khi gia cua tat ca san pham va dch vu (mc gia chung) tang se co 3 yeu to thay the cho khoi lng cac san pham va dch vu tao thanh GDP thc, o la: - Tien te va nhng tch san tai chnh - San pham va dch vu tng lai - San pham va dch vu c san xuat nc ngoai.

AD doc xuong

- Lai suat - Lam phat c d oan - T gia hoi oai (tac ong kep) - Li nhuan d oan (tac ong kep) - Khoi lng tien (tac ong kep) + Tac ong can can thc + Tac ong cua lai suat - S giau co cua dan chung - Cau cua khu vc cong ve san pham va dch vu - Thue va chi chuyen nhng - Thu nhap cua ngoai quoc - Dan so

2.3. Nhng nhan to tac ong en AD

3. Tong cung (Aggegate Supply - AS)


Tong cung la toan bo gia tr hang hoa va dch vu ma cac doanh nghiep, ngi san xuat trong va ngoai nc cung ng cho nen kinh te tng ng vi moi mc gia chung nhat nh trong mot khoang thi gian va trong nhng ieu kien nhat nh.

3.1. o th va ac iem cua ng tong cung


o th 2.3
P P2

LAS
SAS

P1

Y1 Yp Y2

GDPr

a. S thay oi gia ca cua cac yeu to au vao lam thay oi tong cung ngan han
- Tien lng - Gia ca cac yeu to san xuat khac.

3.2. Cac yeu to anh hng tong cung

b. Cac yeu to lam thay oi tong cung ngan han va dai han

- Nguon nhan lc
Trnh o ky thuat cong nghe Nguon nguyen lieu Thi tiet Nhng thay oi trong thanh phan cua GDP thc Nhng yeu to kch thch (cac chnh sach)

4. Can bang kinh te v mo


4.1. Cac o th the hien trang thai can bang kinh te v mo
a. o th the hien trang thai can bang that nghiep (can bang khiem dung)

o th 2.4
P

Thang d
E Pe Thieu hut 0 Ye Yp

AS

AD GDPr

b. o th the hien trang thai can bang tren mc toan dung (mc chenh lech lam phat)

o th 2.5

P
AS

Pe

AD

Yp Ye

GDPr

c. o th the hien trang thai can bang toan dung (trang thai can bang cua muc tieu kinh te v mo) o th 2.6

P
AS

Pe

E AD

Ye = Yp

GDPr

4.2. Anh hng cua s thay oi tong cau oi vi can bang kinh te v mo o th 2.7
P
AS1
AS0

P2 P1

E2 E1

Pe
E

AD1
AD0 0 Ye=Yp Y1 GDPr

Trong ngan han, viec m rong tien te, sut giam


Trong dai han, gia ca tang len, tac ong cua
viec m rong tien te oi vi san lng va lai suat bien mat Tien te co tnh trung tnh trong dai han. Mot chnh sach ngan sach cung hoan toan tng t. lai suat gia tang san lng va gia tang mc gia.

4.3. Anh hng cua thay oi tong cung oi vi can bang kinh te v mo o th 2.8: Phan tch nhng tac ong cua mot thay oi tong cung oi vi GDP thc va mc gia.

AS1

AS0

P1 Pe

E1 E

AD0

Y1

Yp

GDPr

o th 2.9
P
AS1 AS0

E2
P2 P1 Pe E1 E AD1

AD0 0 Y1 Ye=Yp GDPr

B. Mot so muc tieu quan ly v mo


I. Lam phat II. That nghiep III. Can bang ngan sach va can can thanh toan IV. au t va tang trng V. Cong bang xa hoi

1. Khai niem

I. Lam phat

- Theo M.Friedman: ... Lam phat xuat hien va ch xuat hien khi so lng tien trong lu thong tang len vi nhp o nhanh hn so vi san xuat. T o gay ra tnh trang qua nhieu tien uoi bat qua t san pham. - Lam phat la s ngheo i cua dan chung. - Lam phat la s tang len cua mc gia chung. - Lam phat la s boc lot nhng ngi lam cong an lng. - Lam phat la mot day tnh huong cau d tha, v.v. Lam phat la hien tng mc gia chung cua hang hoa va dch vu tang len ong thi sc mua thc te cua ong tien giam xuong theo thi gian.

2.

o lng lam phat


Trong o: IPt:Ch so gia nam hien hanh IPt-1: Ch so gia nam trc - Ch so gia la t le (%) so sanh gia so tien phai tra e mua mot gio hang hoa trong nam o vi so tien phai tra e mua cung mot gio hang hoa o trong nam goc.

- T le lam phat = (IPt Ipt-1)*100/Ipt-1

Ch so gia tieu dung (CPI)


- Ch so gia tieu dung o lng mc gia trung bnh cua nhng san pham, dch vu ma mot gia nh tieu dung (gio hang hoa). - Ch so gia tieu dung c tnh toan da tren c cau chi tieu ho gia nh a muc tieu do Tong cuc Thong ke xay dng nam 1995 gom mot gio hang hoa 296 mat hang.

Cong thc tnh ch so gia tieu dung (CPI)


CPIt = Q0iP ti *100/ Q0ip0i

Trong o: Q0i: khoi long san pham i ma mot gia nh tieu dung nam goc P ti: n gia san pham i nam t p0i: n gia san pham i nam goc.

3. Phan loai lam phat


- Lam phat va phai - Lam phat phi ma - Sieu lam phat

4. Nguyen nhan cua lam phat


- Lam phat do sc y cua nen kinh te (lam phat y) - Lam phat do cau keo (o th 3.1) - Lam phat do chi ph ay (o th 3.2)

o th 3.1: Lam phat do cau keo


P
E2 P2 P1 E1 E AD1 AD0 AS1 AS0

Pe

Ye=Yp Y1

GDPr

C che tiep tuc vong xoay: lam phat gia -lng

o th 3.2: Lam phat do chi ph ay P


AS1 AS0

P1 Pe

E1 E AD0

Y1 Ye=Yp

GDPr

Neu c che tiep tuc tiep dien vong xoay: lam phat chi ph gia ca.

5. Tac ong cua lam phat


5.1. Nhng tac ong tieu cc cua lam phat
Lam phat (lam phat t 2 con so tr len) cac tac ong tieu cc sau: Roi loan chc nang lam thc o gia tr cua tien te bien dang cac yeu to va tn hieu th trng cac hoat ong san xuat b nh on. Bien dang hanh vi kinh doanh, ac biet la hanh vi au t tnh trang khan hiem khong bnh thng va lang ph.

Suy yeu, pha v th trng von, tn dung do s bat on gia trong tng lai, suy giam long tin, ong c ngi gi, cac the che tai chnh tn dung.

Tao ra lai suat thc te am tiet kiem giam va chuyen


Phan phoi thu nhap thng kem ong eu trong cac ky lam
phat cao.
Tang nguy c pha san do v n va lam tang chi ph dch vu n nc ngoai tnh bang ngoai te. hng ra khoi au t san xuat suy thoai kinh te.

Moi trng kinh doanh trong nc xau i dong au t nc ngoai suy giam.
Gia hang nhap khau tr nen at o hn tham hut tai chnh tham hut ngan sach nang cham ngoi cho khung hoang kinh te.

5.2. Nhng tac ong tch cc cua lam phat


Lam phat: 2- 5% (cac nc phat trien); <=10% (cac nc ang phat trien) Mot so li ch sau: - Lam phat ta nh dau m giup boi trn nen kinh te. - Lam phat va phai bo ngo kha nang lai suat thc am kch thch tieu dung, vay n va au t giam bt that nghiep xa hoi, kch thch tang trng kinh te.

6. Cac bien phap e giam lam phat


- Km che hien tng lam phat cau keo Chnh phu can tang cng cac bien phap tai chnh tien te theo hng siet chat:

+ Giam phat hanh tien + Thu hep tn dung + Tang lai suat tien gi + Tang thu ngan sach, giam chi ngan sach + Phat hanh cong trai +Tung vang va ngoai te ra ban e rut bt noi te trong lu thong.

- Thuc ay tong cung, giam thieu hut Chnh phu can thc thi cac bien phap:
+ Phat trien san xuat hang hoa, gia tang dch vu bang viec khai thac, ong vien cac nguon lc tiem nang trong nc. + Thc hien chien lc th trng canh tranh t do va bnh ang Tang tong cung, giam chi ph san xuat lan kiem soat c tien lng va gia ca.

II. That nghiep


1. That nghiep
- Ngi ang trong o tuoi lao ong - Co kha nang lao ong - Muon c lao ong - Cha co viec lam.

2. Cac dang that nghiep


- That nghiep tam thi - That nghiep do c cau - That nghiep theo chu ky - That nghiep t nhien = That nghiep tam thi + that nghiep do c cau

3. Moi lien he gia lam phat va that nghiep


o th 3.3: ng cong Phillips ngan han va dai han

I(%)

(S-Ph)

(L- Ph)

I1 Ie 0

U1

U*

U(%)

U*: mc that nghiep t nhien; E: Ir = Ie Ur = U*

4. Chnh sach giam that nghiep nc ta


ai hoi IX a e ra mot so chu trng giam that nghiep nc ta nh sau: - Chnh sach chuyen dch c cau kinh te hp ly - Hnh thanh va to chc tot th trng lao ong

- Tang cng va hoan thien cac chng trnh day nghe, ao tao lai.

III. Can bang ngan sach va can can thanh toan


1. Ngan sach
- Ngan sach la ban tng trnh cac ke hoach chi tieu va tai tr cua chnh phu.
- Ngan sach cua chnh phu co the thang d hoac tham hut. - Can bang ngan sach la muc tieu cua nen tai chnh quoc gia.

Cac bien phap tang thu, giam chi ngan sach:

+ Tang nguon thu ngan sach trong nc bang cac bien phap hieu qua. Quan trong la hoan thien he thong thu thue, chong lau thue, tron thue. + Chong that thoat ngan sach thong qua quan ly cac cong trnh xay dng hieu qua. + Khong bu ap boi chi ngan sach thong qua phat hanh tien di bat ky hnh thc nao. + Vay dan, vay nc ngoai la bien phap chu yeu e bu ap tham hut ngan sach.

2. Can bang can can thanh toan


Payments (BOP) - Tai khoan vang lai Current Accounts (CA) + Xuat khau rong - Can can thng mai (X M) + Cac khoan tra lai rong Net Factor Payments from abroad (NFP) + Cac khoan chuyen nhng rong khac Net Transfers from abroad (NTR) - Tai khoan von Kapital Account (KA) - Tai khoan bu tr (CA + KA)

a.Cac tai khoan cua can can thanh toan Balance Of

b. Can bang can can thanh toan


Tao can bang trong can can thanh toan giam thieu nhap sieu va tang d tr ngoai te cac chnh sach sau: - Duy tr t gia hoi oai hp ly nham kch thch xuat khau. - ieu tiet nhap khau hp ly. - Tranh thu vien tr cua nc ngoai, keu goi s giup cua kieu bao.
- Tng bc ong tien Viet Nam co gia tr chuyen oi ay u, phng tien thanh toan hu hieu.

1. au t

IV. au t va tang trng

Y = C + S + T (1) Y: thu nhap, S: tiet kiem, C: tieu dung, T: thue Mat khac: Y = C + I + G + (X M) (2) I: au t, G: chi tieu chnh phu, X M: xuat khau rong. T (1) va (2) ta co: I = S + (T - G) - (X-M) (3) Gia nh: X M = 0

(3) Tiet kiem la c s cua au t. au t thoa man nhu cau tieu dung cho tng lai ieu kien tang trng kinh te.

2. Tang trng kinh te


Tang trng kinh te cao va ben vng la muc tieu cua tat ca cac nen kinh te.
Tang trng kinh te phu thuoc: - Tai nguyen thien nhien - Lao ong - Von - Tien bo ky thuat. Nhng tr ngai cua tang trng kinh te: - Bung no dan so - Mc tiet kiem thap - N nc ngoai.

Vt qua nhng tr ngai e tang trng:

- Kiem soat dan so - Vien tr t nc ngoai - Ci bo cac han che mau dch va thu hut au t nc ngoai. - Thuc ay tong cau.

Muc tieu:

- Tang trng ve mat lng - Tang trng ve mat chat.

V. Cong bang xa hoi


Cong bang xa hoi the hien theo quan iem cua

ang ta tren c s:

- Cong bang theo chieu ngang: la thc hien cong bang, khong phan biet oi tng, c thc hien tuan theo s van hanh cua c che th trng.
- Cong bang theo chieu doc: la thc hien cong bang tren c s co phan biet oi tng, thc hien thong qua cac chnh sach kinh te va xa hoi cua Nha nc.

C. Mot so van e kinh te v mo chu yeu cua Viet Nam ke t sau oi mi


I. Thi ky 1986 - 1991 II. Thi ky 1992 - 1997 III. Thi ky 1998 en nay IV. Chnh sach kch cau cua Viet Nam

Bang 5: Cac ch tieu kinh te v mo giai oan 1996 2002


VT:%

Ch tie u 1986 1991 1992 - 1997 1998 - 2002 GDP La m pha t 4,5 260,2 8,9 9,7 6,2 2,7

Nguon: Tnh toan cua tac gia t NGTK 1992, 1997, 2002.

Chnh phu a thc thi cac bien phap cai cach, nh


hng th trng bang lieu phap soc nh: T do hoa gia ca hau het cac mat hang tieu dung. Thc hien chnh sach lai suat tien gi thc dng. Tha noi t gia hoi oai. Thc hien che o t chu tai chnh trong cac doanh nghiep Nha nc.

I.Thi ky 1986- 1991

II.Thi ky 1992 1997


- Nen kinh te Viet Nam a on nh. -Toc o tang trng kinh te bnh quan la 8,9%/nam (tng ng toc o tang trng cac NIEs ong A nhng nam 70, 80 the ky trc).
-T le lam phat duy tr tch cc di 10%/nam The hien chnh sach oi mi a phat huy tac

dung.

III. Thi ky 1998 en nay


Nen kinh te Viet Nam a boc lo dau hieu giam sut, thieu on nh. o la he qua t 3 nguyen nhan c ban sau: - Chu anh hng cua cuoc khung hoang tai chnh chau A. ac biet la b tac ong theo c che tre cua no. - S tac ong tch cc cua cac chnh sach sau oi mi trong giai oan trc a khong con phat huy tac dung do ieu kien ben trong va ben ngoai a co nhieu thay oi. - C cau kinh te boc lo dau hieu mat can oi.

Bang 6: Cac ch tieu kinh te v mo giai oan 1996 2002


VT:%

Ch tie u 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

GDP LP TNTT TNNT

9,34 8,15 5,76 4,77 6,75 6,80 7,04 4,6 3,6 9,2 0,1 -0,6 0,8 4,0

5,88 6,01 6,85 6,74 6,44 6,28 6,01 26,6 25,5 28,3 27,7 26,4 25,7 24,7

Nguon: Nien giam Thong ke, 1997, 2002.

IV. Mot so chnh sach kch cau cua Viet Nam


1. Thang 5 1997, chnh phu a ra bon nhom giai phap kch cau:
+ Mua het thoc hang hoa e tam tr ch xuat khau va mot phan tang d tr quoc gia. + Khai thong cac kenh tn dung nham ay tien ra lu thong. + ay nhanh au t xay dng c ban t nguon von trong nc + ay manh viec thu hut von au t nc ngoai.

2. Cac chnh sach kch cau tron goi ke t au nam 1999


2.1. Chng trnh kch cau au t
+ Chng trnh kien co hoa he thong kenh ti thuy li lien huyen, lien xa. + Chng trnh nang cap mat bang ng giao thong nong thon. + Chng trnh khuyen khch xay dng nha khu vc o th va vung kho khan, bao lut. + Trien khai chng trnh ho tr, giai quyet viec lam.

2.2. Chng trnh kch cau tieu dung


+ Khuyen khch cac to chc tn dung cho vay tieu dung oi vi can bo cong nhan vien va oi vi cac tang lp dan c co thu nhap thap vung nong thon va o th khong can am bao tai san the chap. + Thc hien c che mua hang tra gop tren mot so lnh vc.

2.3. Chnh sach ho tr nong dan


+ Giao cho cac doanh nghiep Nha nc mua tam tr nong san (Nha nc ho tr 100% lai suat vay von ngan hang. + Thc hien gian n va cho vay (mi) cho ngi san xuat va doanh nghiep san xuat gao.

+ Mien giam thue nong nghiep.

2.4. Chnh sach ho tr xuat khau


+ Khuyen khch thng nhan xuat khau moi mat hang ma luat phap khong cam. + Khuyen khch cac ai dien thng mai va ai dien ngoai giao cua Viet Nam nc ngoai thc hien moi gii xuat khau va c hng hoa hong theo quy nh. + Thc hien them che o thng theo kim ngach xuat khau mot so mat hang nh: gao, ca phe, rau qua, tht ln.

2.5. Chnh sach thu nhap Tang lng toi thieu cho ngi
lao ong khu vc Nha nc.

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