THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM) CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME AN INTRODUCTION

Dr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETT GEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI at the APETT CIVIL ENGINEERING DIVISION SEMINAR Port Authority Conference Room, Port of Spain Trinidad 31st January 2012 Copyright Myron Chin 2011

A presentation by

SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION
-

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE DONE BY RECENT EARTHQUAKES LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (GCRP) FORMATION OF SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs) SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs ACTIVE FAULTS CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T BUILDING CODE FOR T&T BUILDING INVENTORY SOME EXAMPLES OF THE POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS CONCLUDING REMARKS

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
The entire Caribbean Basin is prone to socio-natural and man-made disasters ECLAC estimates that the disaster impact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/year A number of national, regional (ODPM, CDEMA, SRC, ACS) and international organizations (PAHO, OAS) are currently working in this area. Now we have GEM

Caribbean Natural Hazards

Geological: Earthquakes Volcanic activity Tsunamis Landslides Meteorological: Hurricanes Storm surge and wave action Torrential rains

Caribbean plate (after Weber)

Tobago

Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)

Ca-SA: 20 mm/yr

El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes

(6.8)

Mendoza (2000)

Perez et al. 2001

NA
sana san a

17 N

NA MAR CARIBE

FM MF
sana

SF FS PF FP

VENEZUELA
0 20 CANOA mm/a

VENEZUELA

20 mm/yr

6 -74 W -68 -58

MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)

Trinidad and Tobago Damaging Earthquakes Size, Intensity, Chronology and Locations (after Lloyd Lynch)

7.8 (IX) 1766

Seismic Energy

7.4 (VI) 2007 7.3 (VIII) 1918 7 (VII) 1888 6.3 (VIII) 1954 6.5 5.9

6.7 (VIII) 1997

6.7
6.2 6.3 6.1 5.3

6.6 (VIII) 1825

Recent Seismic Hazard Map of Trinidad (after Lloyd Lynch)

TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02

(After Joan Latchman)

14

Justification for Concern about Natural Hazards ( As stated by Tony Gibbs) Rising insurance premiums Vulnerable tourism facilities Special concerns of small island states Destructive recent Hurricanes and Earthquakes

SOME EXAMPLES OF EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN REGION

-TOBAGO EARTHQUAKES 1997-04-02 &22 -MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1 -LANDSLIDE IN TOBAGO -2002 AND SAN SOUCI DUE TO HEAVY RAINS 2011 - MUD VOLCANO IN PIPARO -DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21 -MAGNITUDE 6.0 -HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12 -MAGNITUDE 7.0

TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)

LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04 (PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)

LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04 (PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)

MUD VOLCANO AT PIPARO (Photo courtesy of GSTT)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -1 DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre (Photos courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -2DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -3DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and Corners Collapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -4DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12 (7.0 MAG.)

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSE HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)

TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNS HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)

THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)

A collaborative effort devised and launched by OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at engaging the global community in the design, development and deployment of uniform open standards and tools for earthquake risk assessment worldwide

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
10 countries have adhered so far 7 private organisations have partnered up with GEM so far they contribute 13.6 M Euro

discussions and negotiations are ongoing with 15+ others

the OECD, World Bank, UNESCO, UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associate participants

SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM

DecisionMakingTools
Con ngencyPlanning,Territorial Planning,CostBenefitA nal y si s, R i sk Governanceetc.

RiskandImpactAnalysis
Damageandlossmaps,lossexceedancecurves, riskindicators,indirectlosses,impactonsociety/ economy

Hazard
Probability,Intensity, Loca on

Exposure
Value,Loca on; Physical,Social, Economic

Vulnerability
Physical,Social, Economic,Ins tu onal; Func ons,Indicators

FIRST PRODUCTS

What is

OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to

compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source
project, available for download from http://openquake.org.

ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE IN BRINGING ACTIVITIES OF VARIOUS COMPONENTS TOGETHER

STAY UPDATED

GEM Website www.globalquakemodel.org

Most update source of information News, results, calls, www.globalquakemodel.org

GEM Report 2009/2010 v2

Available from website and hard-copy

GEM Brochure
Available from website and hard-copy

Bi-monthly e-Newsletter
Sign-up at website

LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN PROGRAMME

-The development of Regional Programmes (RPs) is

the main mechanism through which the GEM tools will be transferred with a view to creating a uniform globally used standard. The RPs involve local experts using GEM software and tools, who generate local data and validate the data and standards that are being created on the global level. -The Institution of Structural Engineers (Caribbean Division) hosted a presentation of the GEM project at the Normandie Hotel in Trinidad on 15 October 2010.

LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (Conted)

-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafter referred to as GEM) engaged The Seismic Research Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in the Caribbean. Funding became available in March 2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager, Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, in collaboration with all players/stakeholders from the Caribbean community, spearhead the implementation of the GEM initiative in the Insular Caribbean and the effective functioning of the GEM Regional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean

HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO LAUNCH GEM REGIONAL PROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN
-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION - PRESENTATIONS BY DRS. RUI PINHO,MARCO PAGANI AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND TWENTY OTHERS -ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES - SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED - FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:

http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91

HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM OPENS GEM WORKSHOP

PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM

PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO PAGANI GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR HAZARD

PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN CROWLEY GEM COORDINATOR FOR RISK

GEM WORKSHOP 2-4 MAY 2011 GROUP PHOTOGRAPH

GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS

HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Dr. Walter Salazar (Co-opted on 2011-05-19)

Group 1: Active Faults

Project Leader: Rafi Ahmed (MONA GEOINFORMATICS UWI MONA, JAMAICA) Participants: Franck Audemard y Luz Rodrguez (FUNVISIS, Venezuela) Lyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica), Wayne Adams (Consultant Jamaica) Barbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica) Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, Trinidad Enrique Arango, CENAIS, Mexico Krishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)

Prentice et al. 2010 (2001)

(2001, 2002)

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)

Holocene FAULT

2002 Trench 9

Trinidad and Tobago Pipeline Network (after Lloyd Lynch)

GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (Conted)

RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin Group 5: Exposure Leaders of Sub-Groups: Building Codes: Carlos Buron Critical Facilities: Wayne Adams Retrofitting: Didier Deris Expert Judgement: Anthony Farrell Building Inventory: Kevin Granger Members: Jacob Opadeyi, Jan Vermeiren, Cassandra La Barrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on 2011-05-12) Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, Trinidad Members:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)

Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI in Jamaica.
Main Sponsor: World Bank Completion Date: December 2011.

 OBJECTIVES

To develop a methodology for seismic risk assessment in the Caribbean for three pilot States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.
To provide guidelines and open-source software for the estimation of earthquake loss using available socio-economic data.

Project Components
Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of PGA and spectral ordinates for 0.2s and 1.0s For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismic hazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project (SRC/EUCENTRE). Development/Adapted Fragility Curves Modification, testing and validation of ELE software Determination of data requirements and collection of geo-referenced data Risk evaluation

VULNERABILITY AND BUILDING STOCK

SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston

Precast houses

Masonry Houses

Reinforced concrete apartments

Modern Reinforced Concrete Building at New Kingston

Historical Buildings

Reinforced concrete

buildings on slopes

Wooden house

DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES FOR pre-cast houses

Heavy roof

Connections between panels are effected by welding together matching metal angle sections embedded in the edge ribs of the panels.

FUTURE WORK

GEM collaboration: - Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with the OpenQuake software development. - Two of our Research Assistants from SRC spent two months at the GEM Headquarters from end August to end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake and to analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk Atlas Project in order to assess its applicability to the Caribbean Region.

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES ONE GEM PROJECT IS A NATIONAL BUILDING CODE FOR T&T

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING INVENTORY LEADER KEVIN GRANGER

Project objectives
1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping with GEM Standards. Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by employees or contracted labour, to a relatively undefined, large group of people or community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipedia definition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up the crowd into two categories. The Bounded Crowd will be those participators who will not have any specific experience in structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEM Taxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff), engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists. The Unbounded Crowd will therefore be those participators who will have had sufficient experience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level 2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer. Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.

GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (Conted)

Group 6: Vulnerability
Tentative Leader: Dr. R. Clarke Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWI Leader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs -Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren

Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Myron Chin Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren -Disaster Financing: Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, Fernando Guasch, CENAIS, Cuba - Valuation real estate Leader of Sub-Group: Stacey Edwards ( Co-opted by M. Chin) - Education and Outreach - Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba

SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND MODELS IN THE CARIBBEAN.
GEMs model and tools are envisaged to support a wide range of users, both from the public and private sectors, regional and national organizations, non-governmental bodies and also individuals in earthquake prone areas. The following examples are some of the potential use of GEM tools and models:A countrys Minister of Planning and Development may wish to find out how the effect of different possible earthquake scenarios might affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. A national disaster organization would like to see the expected distribution of damage and fatalities within an urban area for a selected scenario earthquake for emergency management planning. A reinsurer or national primary insurer would like to calculate the average annual loss and probable maximum loss to a portfolio of buildings (based on their own input exposure data). A geologist would like to carry out a new tectonic analysis in proximity to a dam, and would like to download data on active faults as a starting point for his/her study. An engineer who is working on the design of a bridge located in a zone of seismic activity, would like to obtain uniform hazard spectra at different return periods for different performance limit states. An individual would like to understand how hazardous the area is, where (s)he is planning to build a house.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the following remarks-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCE
SOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT WORLDWIDE BY INVOLVING EXPERTS AND PROFESSIONALS FROM ALL REGIONS OF THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD
-GEM IS NOT A VEHICLE TO CARRY OUT THE WORK OF MAJOR INSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES - GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION PROFESSIONALS FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION TO WORK TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THAT EARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN.