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Agenda
Perspectives on Basel III The financing challenge Importance of capital planning and stress testing
PwC
6 Counterparty risk 7 Trading book and securitisation (also known as Basel II.5) 8 Liquidity coverage ratio 9 Net stable funding ratio
PwC
RWA Requirements
Pillar-1 Market risk Pillar-1 Credit risk
6 Counterparty risk
Basel I
Basel II
Basel II.5
Basel III
PwC
PwC view
On-going analyses needed to determine extent procyclicality of minimum capital requirements Role of Pillar 2 internationally remains unclear Essential to identify appropriate indicators to take timely action/release buffers Consider alternative methods such as tightening underwriting standards and reducing credit supply
PwC
Leverage ratio
Issues
Pre-crisis build up of excessive leverage in the banking system Crisis market pressure to reduce leverage, amplified downward pressure on asset prices Capture Off-Balance Sheet (OBS) items
PwC view
Better as a backstop measure in Pillar 2 not a hard Pillar 1 measure Range of ratios needed for different types of firm and business units within groups Rate of change likely to be a key indicator
PwC
The approach to buffers is complex and can 11.Volatility buffer double-count 10. Impact of future accounting changes
9. Management buffer 8. Market buffer 7.Economic growth buffer 6. Systemic buffer (tbc) 5. Countercyclical buffer (0.0% - 2.5%) 4.Conservation buffer (2.5%) 3. Definition change
Basel III
2. Basel III RWAs 1.TTC adjustments.
PwC view
Implications for availability, costs and maturity transformation Trade-off between size and quality of buffer NSFR should be used as a Pillar 2 backstop measure Need for more harmonisation of liquidity risk regulatory / supervisory frameworks
PwC
Systemic effects
Issues
Interconnectedness of financial institutions transmitted negative shocks across the financial system and economy Systemic impacts are beyond the control of a single FI or supervisor
PwC view
Focus macro-supervision first on oversight of market-wide macroeconomic indicators Focus on the overall impact of failure, not the risk Capital is usually not the answer: raise capital levels as a final option, not the first Be aware of market distortions caused by excessive regulation
PwC 9
PwC
10
PwC
11
PwC
12
PwC
13
Agenda
Perspectives on Basel III The financing challenge Importance of capital planning and stress testing
PwC
15
Expected Loss
Surplus core
Earnings
PwC
Going concern
Gone concern
16
10.5% including Conservation Buffer 1/1/19 New available CT1 7% (including Conservation Buffer) 1/1/19 4.5% minimum -- 1/1/15
8%
6.375% 5.75% 5.125% 4.5% 4% Minimum Core Tier 1 (common equity) 2% 3.5%
2010
PwC
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
17
Percentage
10 5 0 1998 -5 -10 -15 -20 Source: Capital IQ; PwC analysis UK banks
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PwC
18
Percentage
10 5 0 1998 -5 -10 -15 -20 Source: Capital IQ; PwC analysis UK banks
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PwC
19
PwC
20
Agenda
Perspectives on Basel III The financing challenge Importance of capital planning and stress testing
PwC
22
2012
2013
3.5%
2014
4.0%
2015
4.5%
2016
4.5% 0.625% 5.125% 60% 6.0% 8.0% 8.625%
2017
4.5% 1.25% 5.75% 80% 6.0% 8.0% 9.25%
2018
4.5% 1.875% 6.375% 100% 6.0% 8.0% 9.875%
2019
4.5% 2.5% 7.0% 100% 6.0% 8.0% 10.5%
PwC
23
Capital planning
Was always required under Basel II Pillar 2 But is now much more important Need to map supply and demand against the transition timetable Be wary of comparing ratios under Basel II with Basel III (definitional changes) Look at internal capital structure for efficiencies (esp changes in deductions)
PwC
24
Minimum
PwC
25
Minimum
PwC
26
PwC
27
Thank you
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