CHAPTER 17

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

 Many people think of statistics as a scary subject involving lots of numbers and equations. While it is true that statistics can be quite technical, the subject remains highly relevant to modern life.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND SAMPLING STUDIES

What exactly is the finding? What do the keywords mean? Distinguish between the actual results and their interpretation Check the definitions of key concepts.

 How large is the sample? a larger sample is likely to give a more accurate conclusion. How is the sample chosen? How the sample is selected affects greatly the reliability of the conclusions. A sample should be representative of the population, in the sense that the features being studied are distributed in the same way in both the sample and the population.

What method is used to investigate the sample?

If a sample is investigated using a biased method, the statistical results can be unreliable even if the sample is representative. There are various ways this might come about: Social desirability Observer effect

The Margin of Error

The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population. Margin of error occurs whenever a population is incompletely sampled. 99%, 95% and 90%

ABSOLUTE VS. RELATIVE QUANTITY

Absolute quantity refers to the actual number of items of a certain kind. Example: The number of female professors at Beijing University Relative quantity is a number that represents a comparison between two quantities, usually a ratio or a fraction, or a number that measures a rate comparing different variables: Example: The ratio between female and male professors at Beijing University.

 This distinction is important because meaningful comparisons often require information about the right kind of quantity. Suppose the number of violent crimes this year is a lot higher than that of 10 years ago. Does it mean our city has become more dangerous? Not necessarily because the higher number could be due to the increase in the population. We need to look at the relative quantity, such as the number of violent crimes per 1,000 people. If this number has actually dropped over the same period, the city has probably become safer despite the higher number of crimes!

MISLEADING STATISTICAL DIAGRAMS

Diagrams can often make it easier to understand and summarize statistical data. Trends and patterns can become more prominent. But the suggestive power of diagrams can also be abused when data are presented in a misleading way.

Some common tricks we should aware of:

1. 2. check the origin of the axes carefully to see whether they start from zero check the scale

PROBABILITY
It is no exaggeration to say that probability is the very guide to life. Life is full of uncertainty, but we have to plan ahead based on assumptions about what is likely or unlikely to happen. In all kinds of professions, assessments of probability and risks are of critical importance forecasting sales, calculating insurance needs and premiums, determining safety standards in engineering, and so on.

Gambler's fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that the probability of an event might increase or decrease depending on the pattern of its recent occurrences, even though these events are independent of each other.

 A very dangerous manifestation of the gambler's fallacy is the hot hand fallacy. This happens when a gambler wins a few times in a row, and he thinks he is on a lucky streak. As a result, he thinks he is more likely to win than lose if he continues to gamble. But this is a fallacy because the probability of him winning the next round is independent of his past record.

Regression fallacy
Regression fallacy is a mistake of causal reasoning due to the failure to consider how things fluctuate randomly, typically around some average condition.

Amazing coincidences
Here is a story about an amazing coincidence (Michell and Rickard, 1977): In 1975, a man was riding a moped in Bermuda and was killed by a taxi. A year later his brother was riding the same moped and died in the same way. In fact he was hit by the same taxi driver, and carrying the same passenger!

 We should not ignore the fact that improbable things do happen simply as a matter of probability. Otherwise we might end up accepting rather implausible theories. Miraculous events are bound to happen given lots of random events. This is a fact about statistics, even if it might be difficult (or disappointing) to believe otherwise.

Chapter 18
Thinking About Values

Aim:
To introduce some principles and concepts useful for thinking about values and morality

Values
are standards or ideals with which we evaluate behavior, people, or situations DIFFERENT TYPES OF VALUES 1. Aesthetic Values 2. Personal Values 3. Moral Values

Aesthetic Values
concern the evaluation of art and literature, and standards for beauty.

Personal values
are values accepted by individuals that affect how they evaluate things and make decisions about their lives. As an example, most people include "do not murder" as part of their personal values. It is simply not in their ethics set to kill someone else.

Moral values
correspond to objective standards in ethics that are supposed to be universal and apply to everyone. They govern how we should interact with each other, and they determine when something is morally right or wrong.

Moral values
Moral values are the standards of good and evil, which govern an individuals behavior and choices. Individuals morals may derive from society and government, religion, or self. When moral values derive from society and government they, of necessity, may change as the laws and morals of the society change. An example of the impact of changing laws on moral values may be seen in the case of marriage vs. living together.

MORAL VALUES AND NORMATIVITY

about what should or should not happen, or what is good or bad. Example: Government officials should avoid corruption, but sadly that is not always the case.

MORALITY AND GOD

God is the basis of morality Example: Murder and adultery are wrong because God says we should not kill or commit adultery.

MORAL RELATIVISM
It says that moral judgments about right and wrong are never objectively true or false. Instead, actions are right or wrong relative to particular societies, persons, traditions or perspectives.

Here are some arguments people use to support moral relativism:

Moral relativism reflects toleration and openmindedness. Moral relativism is confirmed by the fact that there is a wide diversity of moral beliefs across culture and time. When people disagree about objective facts we can use scientific experiments and observations to resolve the disagreement. But there is no scientific method for dealing with moral disagreement, and this must be because morality is relative and not objective.

MORAL ABSOLUTISM
Moral absolutism about an action X is the view that X is right (or wrong) regardless of the situation and the potential consequences. For example, the famous German philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724-1804) was a moral absolutist in regard to telling the truth. He said that lying is always wrong, regardless of consequences. In the essay "On a Supposed Right to Lie from Altruistic Motives," Kant said we should not lie, even if there is a murderer at the door asking whether the innocent victim he wants to kill is in the house. The moral absolutist might perhaps say we should also call the police or to warn the victim, but the bottom line is that we should never lie.

MORAL RELATIVISM, AND CONTEXTUALISM

the claim that what is right or wrong depends on the particular situation in question. For example, a contextualist might refuse to judge whether abortion is right or wrong because she thinks abortion is acceptable in some situations (such as pregnancy due to rape) but not acceptable in other situations (as in pregnancy based on free choice). But this position is not relativism, for it is supposed to be an objective fact that abortion is permissible in cases of rape. A moral relativist will however insist that it is still a relative matter whether abortion is permissible for rape victims.

THINGS TO AVOID IN MORAL DISCUSSION

Avoid verbal abuse and name calling. Do not be dogmatic. Do not confuse differences in taste with moral disagreement. Avoid factual errors. Avoid slippery-slope arguments. Avoid double standards.

FOUR TYPES OF MORAL ARGUMENTS

1. Arguments based on moral principle A moral principle is a general rule about some aspects of morality, such as when it is morally right (or wrong) to do something. Example: killing innocent people is wrong.

An argument based on moral principle typically has two premisesone about the features of a certain action, and another a moral principle about the moral status of those features:

The Harm Principle

One famous moral principle It says that people should be free to do whatever they want unless they harm other people.

2. Arguments based on moral arithmetic

Balance of reason List the reason on opposite sides Are they really legitimate and relevant? Harm and benefits

Consequentialist Reasoning
One important and common type of moral arithmetic This is a matter of deciding what is right to do based purely upon the projected consequences and in particular picking the choice that maximizes the net balance of good consequences over bad consequences.

3. Arguments based on rights

Rights are central to the legal system and our modern understanding of morality. Some rights are basic and common to all human beings. The UN declaration of human rights says that "everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person. Rights serve to protect our interests, and they are often seen as "utility trumps."

 Most rights have restrictions and are not absolute. You can use your bike anyway you want, but it does not give you the right to run it into other people or park it outside the fire station. We all have the right to free speech, but it does not mean we can talk loudly in the cinema.

Arguments from analogy

Many moral arguments are based on analogy, where we compare two similar situations and argue that our moral judgment about the first situation should apply equally to the second. For example, many people argue that illegal download of songs and videos is similar to stealing, and so equally wrong. Or consider the analogy that being a prostitute is like being a dancer or a yoga teacher, using one's body to make other people happy and getting paid in return. Since there is nothing wrong being a dancer or a yoga teacher, being a prostitute is also acceptable.