Chenor Sar dt <<< dt cua John MMTB khong tot bang VTNN nhap khau, at NCKH t W=1/5W cua

/5W cua JohnstonQ thapthu hoach bang pp thu cong lau, hao hut nhieuDakar ban P<=Pw thu nhap thap

John Johnston 450 mau Anh trong lac 560 mau trong hoa mau khac MMTB hien ai VTNN phun bang may bay NCKH nhieu WcaoQ caothu hoach bang may lien hp nhanh, hao hut t BlakelyAtlanta, Chicago TD noi a va xuat khau P>=Pw thu nhap cao

KINH TE PHAT TRIEN (DEVELOMENT ECONOMICS)

Chng1: Nhng van e chung ve tang trng va phat trien kinh te. Chng2:Cac nguon lc phat trien. Chng3: Nong nghiep trong qua trnh phat trien. Chng4: Cong nghiep trong qua trnh phat trien. Chng5: Ngoai thng va phat trien. Chuyen e:Ngheo oi, bat bnh ang va tang trng kinh te. Nang

CHNG 1
I. KHAI NIEM

II. CAC CH TIEU

III. PHAN LOAI CAC NC IV. CAC LY THUYET PT V. NHNG TR NGAI TRONG QUA TRNH PT VI. VAI TRO CUA NHA NC

Khai niem:Tang trng kinh te (economic growth) la mot khai niem mang tnh nh lng ; c bieu hien bang mot trong hai : - Cach 1: S gia tang thc te cua tong san pham quoc dan GNP (Gross National Product) ; tong san pham quoc noi GDP ( Gross domestic product) hay san pham quoc dan rong NNP (Net National Product) trong mot thi ky nhat nh. - Cach 2: S gia tang thc te theo au ngi cua GNP ; GDP hay NNP trong mot thi ky nhat nh.

GNP = GDP +A-B A: thu nhap yeu to nhan c t nc ngoai B: thu nhap yeu to tra cho nc ngoai A bao gom nhng khoan chu yeu: + thu t xuat khau + li nhuan chuyen ve nc cua cac n v KT cua at nc hoat ong nc ngoai + thu nhap chuyen ve nc cua chuyen gia, ngi lao ong cua at

GNP = GDP +A-B B bao gom nhng khoan chu yeu: - chi cho nhap khau - li nhuan cua cac n v KT cua nc ngoai chuyen ve nc ho - thu nhap cua chuyen gia, ngi lao ong nc ngoai chuyen ve nc ho A>B: GNP>GDP A<B: GNP<GDP A=B: GNP = GDP

 Qi.Pi
i 1 n

gia tang thc te? khi anh gia tang trng phai so sanh cac ch tieu theo gia co nh ch khong theo gia hien hanh e loai tr n s bien ong cua gia ca
.Pi2005 .Pi2006 .Pi *

Qi
i 1 n

2005

Qi
i 1 n

2006

Qi
i 1 n i 1

2005

* Qi 2006 . P i

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE ( ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ) BAO GOM:

Tang trng kinh te Tien bo ve chnh tr, van hoa, xa hoi, moi trng. Thay oi c cau kinh te. Cong dan cua quoc gia phai tham gia vao va c hng thanh qua cua s tang trng. Gai phong con ngi khoi

Phat trien KT ben vng (sustainable development):

La s phat trien thoa man nhu cau cua the he hien tai nhng khong anh hng en viec thoa man nhu cau cua the he tng lai Phat trien ben vng phai am bao can bang gia tang trng KT, cong bang xa hoi va bao ve moi trng

I.2 S CAN THIET PHAI TANG TRNG NHANH Tang trng nhanh la ieu kien can e xoa oi giam ngheo. Tang trng nhanh e cung co quyen lc cua chnh phu. Tang trng nhanh tao the thuan li tren ban am phan quoc te. Tang trng nhanh gop phan cung co quoc phong Tang trng nhanh e tranh s tut hau

I.3 IEU KIEN E TANG TRNG NHANH

1. 2. 3. 4.

On nh kinh te v mo Coi trong von con ngi ng dung khoa hoc cong nghe Tao ieu kien cho th trng hoat ong 5. M ca nen kinh te 6. Thong nhat y ch 7. Phai co nhng nha ky tr (technocrat)

I.3 MUC TIEU CUA PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

Nang cao mc song em lai cho moi cong dan long t tin, t trong vao ban than; t hao ve at nc va dan toc M rong s la chon

Cung lao ong cao

Sc khoe kem Dan so tang

That nghiep

Cau lao ong thap

Nang suat thap

Ky nang au t thap yeu

e nhieu

Thu nhap thap

Mc song thap

Tch luy thap

Thieu t tin, Khong t quyet nh Han che s t trong la chon t hao Cam chu le thuoc

II.1 CAC CH TIEU THE HIEN S TANG TRNG

* Toc o tang
g

trng lien hoan GDP Yt Yt 1 Y

Y Yt 1

* Toc o tang trng bnh quan hang nam a cua thi ky co n nam: Yn
( n 1)

Toc o tang trng goc: Yt Y0 Y nh

g Y Y0

Y1

Yn: GDP nam th n; Y1: GDP nam th 1

1.

2.

3.

4.
5.

II. 2- CAC CH TIEU THAY OI C CAU Ty trong CN/GDP, DV/GDP ngay cang tang; NN/GDP ngay cang giam Ty le lao ong CN/l XH; lao ong DV/l XH ngay cang tang; lao ongNN/l XH ngay cang giam Ty le dan thanh th/dan so ngay cang tang Ty le tch luy S/Y, ty le au t I/Y ngay cang tang Ty trong xuat khau rong (X-M) trong

II.3 CAC CH TIEU TIEN BO VAN HOA, XA HOI

1- Toc o tang dan so [(tong so sinh +nhap c)-(tong so chet +di c)] -----------------------------------------------------dan so trung bnh 2- So con trung bnh cua 1 phu n trong o tuoi co kha nang sinh e (15-49 tuoi) 3- So ngi dan/ bac s, y ta, can bo y te 4-Tuoi tho trung bnh 5- Ty le biet ch cua ngi > 15 tuoi 6- Ty le t vong cua tre s sinh hay < 5 tuoi

II. 4 CAC CH TIEU VE MOI TRNG

1- o che phu rng Dien tch rng / dien tch lanh tho 2- So m3 nc sach/ngi/nam

Ch so phat trien con ngi HDI ( human development index) la ch tieu tong hp cua 3 ch tieu : __ Thu nhap bnh quan au ngi ( c anh gia theo phng phap PPP) __ Tuoi tho trung bnh __ Trnh o van hoa: xac nh tren c s ty le ngi biet oc, biet viet va so nam i hoc bnh quan Ch so HDI co gia tr t 0 en 1, nc nao co gia tr HDI ln hn co ngha la co s phat trien con ngi cao hn. Ch so HDI c tnh toan theo cong thc sau: IL+IE+II IL: ch so tuoi tho HDI = -------------IE: ch so trnh o van hoa 3 II: ch so thu nhap/ngi

 IE = (2e1+e2) / 3

e1: ch so biet ch e2: ch so ang ky hoc cac cap lp (hay ch so ve so nam i hoc trung bnh)

e1i - e1min e1 = ----------------- e1max e1min

e1max: ty le biet ch cao nhat TG e1 min: ty le biet ch thap nhat TG e1i: ty le biet ch cua nc I

e2i e2min e2 = ----------------- e2max e2min

e2max: ty le ang ky hoc cao nhat TG e2 min: ty le ang ky hoc thap nhat TG e2i: ty le ang ky hoc cua nc I

Li Lmin Lmax: tuoi tho bnh quan cao nhat TG IL = --------------- L min: tuoi tho bq thap nhat TG Lmax Lmin Li: tuoi tho bnh quan cua nc i

log (Ii) log (Imin) II = ---------------------------log (Imax)log (Imin) Imax: mc thu nhap au ngi cao nhat the gii I min: mc thu nhap au ngi thap nhat the gii Ii: mc thu nhap au ngi cua nc i

Ch so phat trien con ngi HDI cua Cote Divoire

e1i - e1min 47,8 - 0 e1 = -------------------- = --------- = 0,468; e1max e1min 100 0 e2i e2min 38 - 0 e2 = -------------------- = -------- =0,38 e2max e2min 100 0

IE = (2e1+e2) / 3 = [( 0,468.2) + 0,38 ] = 0,439 Li Lmin 47,8 - 25 IL = ---------------- = ------------- = 0,38 Lmax Lmin 85 - 25

log (Ii) log (Imin) log(1630) log(100) II = ----------------------------= ----------------------------- = 0,46 log (Imax)log (Imin) log(40000)log(100) IL+IE+II 0,38 + 0,439 + 0,46 = -------------- = ---------------------------- = 0,426 3 3

HDI

Kinh t Vit Nam qua 20 nm i mi

2005
Tc tng GDP Tc tng trng Nng nghip Tc tng trng cng nghip 7,5%/nm(962005) 5,5%/nm 15%/nm 8,4%

Tc tng trng dch v

T trng NN/GDP T trng CN/GDP T trng dch v/GDP Thu nhp/ngi

7,5%/nm
46,3% (1988) 21,6% (1988) 33,1% (1988) 200$ (1990) 20,9% 41% 38,1% 640$

HDI

0,498(1990); 0,688

0,701

III PHAN LOAI CAC NC

1) Cac nc CN hang au TG (G8)

2) Cac nc phat trien khac

3) Cac nc ang PT NiCs ( ong A, MICs ong My Latinh) Nam A, Tr/ ong
LICs (Nam A, Tay Phi)

ac iem cua cac nc phat trien/ (kem PT)

1.Thu nhap cao / thap 2.Khoa hoc ky thuat tien tien/ lac hau 3.C cau KT chu yeu la CN, DV/NN 4.The che chnh tr, xa hoi, phap luat hoan chnh/kem 5.Dan tr cao/thap dan chu cao /thap

Quan iem Adam Smith - Hoc thuyet gia tr lao ong

- Hoc thuyet ban tay vo hnh

- Trong xa hoi gom 3 nhom ngi:a chu, nha TB va ngi lao ong (nong dan, cong nhan), phan chia li ch cho moi nhom da tren quyen s hu TLSX chu yeu.

Quan iem trng phai co ien (David Ricardo) - Nhat tr vi Adam Smith cac nhom ngi trong xa hoi nhng e cao vai tro cua nha TB. - Q = f(K, L, N, T) cac au vao ket hp theo ty le nhat nh. Nong nghiep la nganh KT quan trong nhat - Dan so tang nhu cau LT, TP tang phai SX tren at xau Chi ph SX tang gia LTTP tangnha TB phai tang lng cho CN li nhuan giam au t giam tang trng giam=> at ai la gii han cua s tang trng

Quan iem cua trng phai co ien P

AD AS

Pe

Qe=Qp

Co mot ng tong cung thang ng v nguon cung gii han Cac au vao ket hp theo ty le co nh

San lng can bang Qe = san lng tiem nang Qp

Quan iem cua trng phai tan co ien P

AD AS-LR AS-SR

Pe

Qe = Qp

Co 2 ng tong cung: dai han va ngan han Cac au vao ket hp theo ty le khac nhau Giong co ien ; phu nhan vai tro cua nha nc

K(trieu $)

D 20 A Q1 =100.000 vsp, P = 50$ B C Q2 =200.000 vsp, P = 50$

10

100

200

L(trieu ngi)

Quan iem trng phai Keynes - Bac bo quan iem cua trng phai co ien va tan co ien ve s linh hoat cua gia ca. - Thuoc trng phai trong cau - e cao vai tro cua nha nc trong quan ly nen KT: kch cau bang cach at hang, tr von cho cac DN. e cao vai tro cua thue, ac biet la thue thu nhap trong viec kch cau - Chap nhan lam phat e thuc ay tang trng KT

Quan iem cua trng phai Keynes

P AD
AS-LR AS-SR

Pe

Qe < Qp

Co 2 ng tong cung: dai han va ngan han Qe < Qp

Mo hnh Harrod-Domar Y =K / k Y: GDP hay GNP K: tong so von au t k: he so von-san lng Y = K / k k: he so gia tang von-san lng Y/ Y = K / Y. 1/k g=s/k

V. NHNG TR NGAI TRONG QUA TRNH PHAT TRIEN

1. Bat on chnh tr 2. Chien tranh xam lc hay noi chien 3. Sai lam trong ng loi chnh sach, trong viec thc hien chnh sach 4. Hanh chnh quan lieu 5. Toc o tang dan so cao 6. Canh tranh quoc te gay gat.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

6.
7.

VI. VAI TRO CUA NHA NC TRONG QUA TRNH PHAT TRIEN Gi gn oc lap dan toc. nh hng chien lc phat trien La chon qui mo bc i cua cong cuoc cai cach To chc, phoi hp ieu hoa cac hoat ong Xay dng, hoan thien he thong luat phap Cung cap hang hoa congcong:CSHT,VH,Y te Can oi ngan sach