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T is a random variable and thus has distribution
The Central Limit Theorem states that,
If m is large e.g. m 4
The distribution of project duration is approximately
normal with mean T
E
and variance
T
E
= t
e1,,+,
t
e2+
t
e3
+.t
em
= + + + ..+
>
T
v
T
v
T
v
1 t
v
2
t v
3
t v
m
t v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE
Suppose the random variable t is
normally distributed .
It means that the distribution has a
characteristics symmetrical BELL SHAPE
which frequently occurs when a variable is
acted upon by a multitude of random
chances causing variation
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
For construction engineering accuracy,
probabilities beyond 1% are generally not
required
The area under the density curve between
+1 and -1 (on Z- scale) is approximately 68% .
Between +2 and -2 is 96%
Between +3 and -3 standard deviation is 99.7%
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE
-3 -2 +3 +2 -1 +1
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
o
f
o
c
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e
Scale of random variable t
t
e
96% of the area
99.7% of the area
68% of the area
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
PERT CALCULATION
The durations of activities are assumed to
follow some probability distribution .
This probability distribution may be
general, but in PERT, the distribution is
replaced by 03 descriptions of activity
durations.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
OPTIMISTIC TIME FOR ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
a
):
If every thing goes well. It is minimum time in
the past data but not a crash time.
PESSIMISTIC TIME FOR ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
b
):
If every thing goes badly. It is maximum time
in past data but not including delay due to
unforeseen circumstances
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR AN ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
m
):
The average of all normal times in past data
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Distribution of 3 durations
Probability
of frequency
of occurrence
Activity Time
t
m
t
b
t
a
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Estimating t
a
, t
b
, t
m
forces the planner to
assess the activity and all its associated
problems.
The variability given to an activity duration,
does not cover the unforeseen circumstances.
It only reflects the nature of the activity or the
estimators own uncertainty of the activity
duration.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Some Basic Formulae
MEAN DURATION (te):
[(t
a
+t
b
)/2+2t
m
] = t
a
+4t
m
+t
b
STRANDARD DEVIATION ( ):
VARIANCE ( ):
6
b a
te
t t
o
=
6
te
o
2 2
( ) [ ]
6
b a
t te
t t
v o
= =
t
v
3
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
When t
a
& t
b
coincides,
variance is zero
Activity duration is characterized only by
t
m
= t
a
= t
b
Activity duration becomes a deterministic
not probabilistic quantity
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EVENT TIMES
Pert calculation are carried out on the network
just like CPM calculations ,taking t
e
as the
activity duration
1. Where there is just one path in the network then
the time to complete any event i (including the
project completion time ) on that path is the sum
of the times of the activities leading to that event
[T
E
]
i
= EFT for event i and
[ ]
i
T T
K
v v =
=
TE
o =
( )
2 / 1
TE
v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Z-TABLE
Z P* Z P*
3 0.999 -3 0.001
2.5 0.994 -2.5 0.006
2 0.997 -2 0.023
1.9 0.971 -1.9 0.029
1.8 0.964 -1.8 0.036
1.7 0.955 -1.7 0.045
1.6 0.945 -1.6 0.055
1.5 0.933 -1.5 0.067
1.4 0.919 -1.4 0.081
1.3 0.903 -1.3 0.097
1.2 0.885 -1.2 0.115
1.1 0.864 -1.1 0.136
1.0 0.841 -1.0 0.159
0.9 0.816 -0.9 0.184
0.8 0.788 -0.8 0.212
0.7 0.758 -0.7 0.242
0.6 0.726 -0.6 0.274
0.5 0.692 -0.5 0.308
0.4 0.655 -0.4 0.345
0.3 0.618 -0.3 0.382
0.2 0.579 -0.2 0.421
0.1 0.540 -0.1 0.460
0.0 0.500 0.0 0.500
P* = Probability of completing by T
S
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EXAMPLE
(Single Span Bridge Project)
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Activity Estimated Times t
e
= (
t
a +
4t
m +
t
b ) / 6
t
a
t
m
t
b
ENA
4 5 7
5.17
0.25
ESA
4 4 6
4.33
0.11
CONN
10 14 18
14.0
1.78
CONS
9 12 15
12.0
1.00
PB
17 18 19
18.0
0.11
TD
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
EB
3 3 4
3.17
0.03
LBS
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
ICB
1 1 1
1.0
0.00
COMN
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
COMS
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
RNB
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
RSB
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
L
1 1 2
1.17
0.03
2 2
( )
[ ] ( )
6 6
a b a b
t t t t
v
=
67 . 37 ) ( =
critical e
t 12 . 3 ) ( =
CRT
v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Event Calculation
Event # T
E
(EFT)
Critical Path
Start 1
0 0
Start 2 0 0
ENA 3 5.17 0.25
CONN 5 19.17 2.03
Dummy 6 19.17 2.03
CONS 8 31.17 3.03
COMS 11 33.33 3.06
RSB 13 35.50 3.09
Dummy 14 35.50 3.09
LBS 15 37.67 3.12
Finish 16 37.67 3.12
Top non critical path
COMN 7
21.33 2.06
RNB 10 23.50 2.09
Bottom non critical path
PB 4 18.0 0.11
TD 9 31.17 0.14
EB 12 34.33 3.06
cr
or
t
v v
o
TE
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
For event #6:
The probability that the associated event
time is less than 20
Z
-20
=(20-19.17) / (2.03)
1/2
=0.583
From Z-table
if Z=0.583
P=0.720
OR P=72%
TE
E S
T T
Z
o
=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
TE
E S
T T
Z
o
=
Again from event # 6
The probability that the associated event time is less
than 19.17 :
Z
-19.17
=(19.17-19.17)/(2.03)
1/2
=0
P=0.50
P=50%
Again from event # 6
The probability that the associated event time is less
than 19.17 :
Z
-19.17
=(19.17-19.17)/(2.03)
1/2
=0
P=0.50
P=50%
TE
E S
T T
Z
o
=
Again from event # 6
TE
E S
T T
Z
o
=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
TE
s E
T T
Z
o
=
For event # 9:
The probability that the associated event time is greater
than 32 :
Z
32-
= (31.17-32) / (0.14)
1/2
= - 2.219
P = 0.015
P = 1.5%
OR
Z
-32
= (33-31.17)/(0.14)
1/2
= +2.219
P
-32
= 0.985 = 98.5%
P
32-
= 1 - 0.985 = 0.015 = 1.5%
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Project Completion Example
(Single Span Bridge Project)
Find the probabilities that the project will finish
(a): By the end of day 39.
(b): Before the start of day 41.
(c): During day 40.
(d): On days 42,43,44.
(e): At least two days earlier
(f): No more than 1 day earlier
(g): on TE
(h): After the end of day 41
(i): Find the day of completion with at least 98%
confidence
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Solution
(Single span bridge example)
= =37.67=38 days
= = = (3.12)
1/2
=1.77
Notation to be used:
By the end of day X = z
-x
= P
-X
Before the end of day X = Z
-X
= P
-X
During day X = Z
X
= P
X
During days X,Y,Z = Z
XYZ
= P
XYZ
After the end of day X = Z
X-
= P
X-
project TE
) (o
( )
project E
T
( )
Critical
E
T
critical TE
) (o
CR
77 . 1
38 38
TE
E S
T T
o
TE
E S
T T
o
77 . 1
38 37
41
38 41
1.695
1.77
z
= =
41
41 38
1.695
1.77
z
= =
E
T
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
(I) : Day of completion with at least 98% confidence
For
P = 98% = 0.98
Z = 2.11
2.11 = (T
S
- 38) / 1.77
T
s
= 41days
Completion date with at least 98% confidence = 41days
S E
TE
T T
Z
o
=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
More than one critical paths
Main critical path is determined based on
Activity Expected Time
Alternative critical paths may also develop ,if
activities run to lesser and/or greater times
So , if there is a reasonable amount of variability
possible in some activity durations , a no. of
paths ,close to critical may develop in addition to
that critical path which is based on activity
expected times
In case of more than one possible critical paths,
we use joint possibilities
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EXAMPLE
Problem Statement:
There is a network with
three possible critical
paths
Path A: T
E
=31
Path B T
E
=3o ------
Path c: T
E
=31 ------
What is the probability of
completing the project by
the end of day 30?
2.5
TE
o =
3.0
TE
o =
2.5
TE
o =
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Solution:
Path A:
P
-30
= 0.345=34.5%
Path B:
P
-30
= 0.50 = 50%
Path C:
P
-30
= 0.31 = 31%
P
-30 =
(0.34)*(0.50)*(0.31)
= 0.05 5%
30
30 31
0.4
2.5
z
= =
30
30 30
0
3.0
z
= =
30
30 31
0.50
2.0
z
= =
~
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem No:1(Pert)
There are two expected critical paths for a
construction project
Path 1:
Critical
activities
t
A
t
m
t
b
A 6 6 6
D 3 4 5
G 5 5 8
J 5 7 9
M 5 8 8
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem #1 (Conti)
Path 2:
Critical
activities
t
a
t
m
t
b
B 1 6 6
C 2 5 10
E 1 8 9
F 1 4 7
H 5 7 12
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Find the probability that the project will finish
By the end of day 30
Before the start of day 32
After the end of day 31
Find the date of completion with at least
93% confidence
(Use trial and error procedure )
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem # 2
Here are given three critical
paths
Find the probability that
project will finish:
By the end of day 50
Before the start of day 50
After the end of day 52
During day 51
Find the date of completion
with al least 90% confidence
Path-# T
E
TE
1 50 1.0
2 48 3.0
3 45 5.0
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi