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Pert is abbreviated as:

Program Evaluation and


Review Techniques
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi


INTRODUCTION


Originally developed by D.G MALCOLM
and others in late 1950 for the U.S Navys
Polaris Missile Program
Difference between CPM and PERT:
It is similar to CPM
The only difference between the two
method is that CPM uses fixed duration for
each activity while Pert uses a probability
distribution

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Reasons for variability in activity durations:
The activity duration is subjected to variability due to
1. Varying resource demands
2. Work process itself
3. Insufficient data available to estimate for
characterizing the work process exactly
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Definition of VARIANCE
Statistical approach work with an activity
expected duration and a measure of the
scatter or variability in the durations is
called VARIANCE


Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
SOME COMMON FEATURES OF PERT:
It uses an activity on arrow network,
although events may be given
description.
Pert is not commonly used in
construction industry , as the
probability techniques are not popular.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Basic Probability Theory
Definition of probability :
It is a measure of uncertainty
Every one knows the meanings of the
statement that an event is
ALMOST CERTAIN
HIGHLY PROBABLE
ABOUT 50-50
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
HIGHLY IMPROBABALE

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
CONT
Pert only attempts to quantify these
statements in a precise and objective way
Probability is expressed on a scale that runs
from 0 to 1
Zero(0) represent IMPOSSIBALITY
One(1) represent CERTAINTY
The number in between zero and one
represent varying degree of likelihood. That
is why probability is known to be a measure
of uncertainty
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi

EMPIRICAL FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION

Consider a pert activity which has been
performed in the past in a large no. of times
under essentially the same conditions
Let the past duration times for this activity
ranged from 6 to 17 days
The histogram between
activity duration time/random variable (t)
and frequency of occurrence is shown in
the fig.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Frequency
of
occurrence
Activity duration time (t)
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Cont
If one had infinity no. of observations and
made the width of intervals in the previous
figure to approach zero(0),

The distribution would merge into a
smooth curve ,referred as the
THEORITICAL PROBABILITY DENSITY
CURVE OF THE RANDOM VARIABLE (t)
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Characteristics of an Empirical
Distribution

To describe an empirical frequency
distribution quantitatively , two
measurements are frequently employed
1: Measure of its central tendency
Locates the point about which the
distribution is centered
2:Measure of its variability
Indicates the spread or dispersion in the
distribution
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Two Distributions with Same Dispersion
but Different Means

Random Variable
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

O
f

O
c
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Two Distributions with Same mean but
different Dispersions
Random Variable
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

O
f

O
c
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Two Distributions with different means
and different Dispersions
Random Variable
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

O
f

O
c
c
u
r
e
n
c
e

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi

In pert computation, the central tendency
is measured by
Arithmetic average or mean (te)


Variability is measured by
Standard deviation


) (
te
o
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
If n observation are denoted by
t
1
,t
2
,t
3
,t
n

(a) Measure of central tendency
= Arithmetic mean
= (t
1
+t
2
+t
3
+..t
n
) /n = te
(b) Measure of variability:
=standard deviation =
= { [ (t
1
-t
e
)
2
+(t
2
-t
e
)
2
+(t
3
-t
e
)
2
+(t
4
-t
e
)
2
+(t
n
-t
e
)
2
] / n}

Standard deviation is also called
ROOT-MEAN SQUARE DEVIATION
Square of standard deviation is called variance
of t,
( ) te o
( )
2
te o
T
v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
Suppose m independent tasks are to be performed in
order
(Let it be the m tasks /activities which lie on critical path of
network)

Let
t
1
,t
2
,t
3
,..t
m
be the times at which these tasks are actually completed .

In fact these are random variables with true means
t
e1
,t
e2
,t
e3
,t
em

And true variances

, , , , .




1
t v
3
t v
2
t v
4
t v
m
t v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
PROJECT DURATION
Let PROJECT DURATION = T
T = t
1
+t
2
+t
3
+t
4
+t
m


T is a random variable and thus has distribution
The Central Limit Theorem states that,
If m is large e.g. m 4
The distribution of project duration is approximately
normal with mean T
E
and variance

T
E
= t
e1,,+,
t
e2+
t
e3
+.t
em

= + + + ..+
>
T
v
T
v
T
v
1 t
v
2
t v
3
t v
m
t v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE
Suppose the random variable t is
normally distributed .
It means that the distribution has a
characteristics symmetrical BELL SHAPE
which frequently occurs when a variable is
acted upon by a multitude of random
chances causing variation
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
For construction engineering accuracy,
probabilities beyond 1% are generally not
required

The area under the density curve between
+1 and -1 (on Z- scale) is approximately 68% .

Between +2 and -2 is 96%

Between +3 and -3 standard deviation is 99.7%
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE
-3 -2 +3 +2 -1 +1
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

o
c
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e

Scale of random variable t
t
e

96% of the area
99.7% of the area
68% of the area
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
PERT CALCULATION
The durations of activities are assumed to
follow some probability distribution .

This probability distribution may be
general, but in PERT, the distribution is
replaced by 03 descriptions of activity
durations.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
OPTIMISTIC TIME FOR ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
a
):
If every thing goes well. It is minimum time in
the past data but not a crash time.
PESSIMISTIC TIME FOR ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
b
):
If every thing goes badly. It is maximum time
in past data but not including delay due to
unforeseen circumstances
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR AN ACTIVITY
COMPLETION (t
m
):
The average of all normal times in past data
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Distribution of 3 durations
Probability
of frequency
of occurrence
Activity Time
t
m
t
b

t
a

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Estimating t
a
, t
b
, t
m
forces the planner to
assess the activity and all its associated
problems.

The variability given to an activity duration,
does not cover the unforeseen circumstances.

It only reflects the nature of the activity or the
estimators own uncertainty of the activity
duration.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Some Basic Formulae
MEAN DURATION (te):
[(t
a
+t
b
)/2+2t
m
] = t
a
+4t
m
+t
b

STRANDARD DEVIATION ( ):


VARIANCE ( ):



6
b a
te
t t
o

=
6
te
o
2 2
( ) [ ]
6
b a
t te
t t
v o

= =
t
v
3
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
When t
a
& t
b
coincides,

variance is zero
Activity duration is characterized only by
t
m
= t
a
= t
b
Activity duration becomes a deterministic
not probabilistic quantity
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi


EVENT TIMES

Pert calculation are carried out on the network
just like CPM calculations ,taking t
e
as the
activity duration

1. Where there is just one path in the network then
the time to complete any event i (including the
project completion time ) on that path is the sum
of the times of the activities leading to that event

[T
E
]
i
= EFT for event i and







[ ]
i
T T
K
v v =

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi


[ ]
i
T
v
Where there are k activities on the path under
consideration

When parallel path meet at the same event
[T
E
]
i
and are taken as those with
the highest sum of expected times.
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
[ ]
i
T
v
Where parallel paths have the same sum of
expected times , then path with the larger
variance is used.

As the event times are obtained by adding activity
times , and the activity times are assumed
independently:

the central limit theorem implies
The distribution of event times is normal
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EXPECTED COMPLETION TIMES
By implying central limit theorem
Probability of completing an event by any specific time,
T
S ,
can be determined by using Z-table based on the
standard or normal distribution density curve



T
E
= Longest Paths mean
Longest path standard Deviation=

T
S
= Any date you choose
Z = Number of standard deviations from mean

S E
TE
T T
Z
o

=
TE
o =
( )
2 / 1
TE
v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Z-TABLE
Z P* Z P*
3 0.999 -3 0.001
2.5 0.994 -2.5 0.006
2 0.997 -2 0.023
1.9 0.971 -1.9 0.029
1.8 0.964 -1.8 0.036
1.7 0.955 -1.7 0.045
1.6 0.945 -1.6 0.055
1.5 0.933 -1.5 0.067
1.4 0.919 -1.4 0.081
1.3 0.903 -1.3 0.097
1.2 0.885 -1.2 0.115
1.1 0.864 -1.1 0.136
1.0 0.841 -1.0 0.159
0.9 0.816 -0.9 0.184
0.8 0.788 -0.8 0.212
0.7 0.758 -0.7 0.242
0.6 0.726 -0.6 0.274
0.5 0.692 -0.5 0.308
0.4 0.655 -0.4 0.345
0.3 0.618 -0.3 0.382
0.2 0.579 -0.2 0.421
0.1 0.540 -0.1 0.460
0.0 0.500 0.0 0.500
P* = Probability of completing by T
S
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EXAMPLE

(Single Span Bridge Project)
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Activity Estimated Times t
e
= (
t
a +
4t
m +
t
b ) / 6
t
a
t
m
t
b
ENA
4 5 7
5.17
0.25
ESA
4 4 6
4.33
0.11
CONN
10 14 18
14.0
1.78
CONS
9 12 15
12.0
1.00
PB
17 18 19
18.0
0.11
TD
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
EB
3 3 4
3.17
0.03
LBS
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
ICB
1 1 1
1.0
0.00
COMN
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
COMS
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
RNB
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
RSB
2 2 3
2.17
0.03
L
1 1 2
1.17
0.03
2 2
( )
[ ] ( )
6 6
a b a b
t t t t
v

=
67 . 37 ) ( =
critical e
t 12 . 3 ) ( =
CRT
v
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Event Calculation
Event # T
E
(EFT)


Critical Path
Start 1

0 0
Start 2 0 0
ENA 3 5.17 0.25
CONN 5 19.17 2.03
Dummy 6 19.17 2.03
CONS 8 31.17 3.03
COMS 11 33.33 3.06
RSB 13 35.50 3.09
Dummy 14 35.50 3.09
LBS 15 37.67 3.12
Finish 16 37.67 3.12
Top non critical path
COMN 7

21.33 2.06
RNB 10 23.50 2.09
Bottom non critical path
PB 4 18.0 0.11
TD 9 31.17 0.14
EB 12 34.33 3.06
cr
or
t


v v
o

TE
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
For event #6:
The probability that the associated event
time is less than 20

Z
-20
=(20-19.17) / (2.03)
1/2
=0.583


From Z-table
if Z=0.583
P=0.720
OR P=72%

TE
E S
T T
Z
o

=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
TE
E S
T T
Z
o

=
Again from event # 6
The probability that the associated event time is less
than 19.17 :

Z
-19.17
=(19.17-19.17)/(2.03)
1/2
=0
P=0.50
P=50%

Again from event # 6
The probability that the associated event time is less
than 19.17 :

Z
-19.17
=(19.17-19.17)/(2.03)
1/2
=0
P=0.50
P=50%

TE
E S
T T
Z
o

=
Again from event # 6







TE
E S
T T
Z
o

=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
TE
s E
T T
Z
o

=
For event # 9:
The probability that the associated event time is greater
than 32 :


Z
32-
= (31.17-32) / (0.14)
1/2
= - 2.219
P = 0.015
P = 1.5%
OR

Z
-32
= (33-31.17)/(0.14)
1/2
= +2.219
P
-32
= 0.985 = 98.5%
P
32-
= 1 - 0.985 = 0.015 = 1.5%



Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Project Completion Example
(Single Span Bridge Project)
Find the probabilities that the project will finish
(a): By the end of day 39.
(b): Before the start of day 41.
(c): During day 40.
(d): On days 42,43,44.
(e): At least two days earlier
(f): No more than 1 day earlier
(g): on TE
(h): After the end of day 41
(i): Find the day of completion with at least 98%
confidence
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Solution
(Single span bridge example)

= =37.67=38 days
= = = (3.12)
1/2
=1.77

Notation to be used:
By the end of day X = z
-x
= P
-X

Before the end of day X = Z
-X
= P
-X

During day X = Z
X
= P
X

During days X,Y,Z = Z
XYZ
= P
XYZ

After the end of day X = Z
X-
= P
X-


project TE
) (o
( )
project E
T
( )
Critical
E
T
critical TE
) (o
CR

Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi


(A): By the end of day 39

Z
-39
= (T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 0.565
P
-39
=0.711=71.1%


(B): Before the start of day 41
(It is equivalent to By the end of day 40)

Z
-40
= (T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 1.130
P
-40
= 0.86 = 86%


77 . 1
38 39
77 . 1
38 40
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
(C): During day 40:

It is equivalent to
{(By the end of day 40) - (By the end of day 39)}

Z
-40
= (T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 1.130

P
-40
= 0.86 = 86%

Z
-39
= (T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 0.565

P
-39
= 0.711 = 71.1%

P
40
= P
-40
- P
-39

= 86 - 71.1 = 14.9%


(D): On days 42,43,44
It is equivalent to
[(By the end of day 44)-(By the end of day 41) ]

Z
-44
= (T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 3.390

P
-44
= 1.0 = 100%

Z
-41
(T
s
- T
E
) /
TE
= = 1.695

P
-41
= 0.954 = 95.4%

P
42,43,44
= 100-P-41
=100-95.4
=4.6%
77 . 1
38 40
77 . 1
38 39
77 . 1
38 44
77 . 1
38 41
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
(G): On


As =38,

It is equivalent to
[(By the end pf day 38)-by the end of day 37)]

Z
-38
= = = 0

P
-38
= 0.50 = 50%


Z
-37
= = = -0.565

P
-37
= = 0.289 = 28.9%

P
38
= P
-38
- P
-37

= 50 - 28.9 = 21.1%

(H) After the end of day 41


P
41-
= 0.047=4.7%

OR

P
-41
= 95.7%
P
41-
= 100-P
-41

=100- 95.3=4.7%


E
T
TE
E S
T T
o

77 . 1
38 38
TE
E S
T T
o

TE
E S
T T
o

77 . 1
38 37
41
38 41
1.695
1.77
z


= =
41
41 38
1.695
1.77
z


= =
E
T
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
(I) : Day of completion with at least 98% confidence

For

P = 98% = 0.98
Z = 2.11


2.11 = (T
S
- 38) / 1.77
T
s
= 41days
Completion date with at least 98% confidence = 41days


S E
TE
T T
Z
o

=
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
More than one critical paths
Main critical path is determined based on
Activity Expected Time
Alternative critical paths may also develop ,if
activities run to lesser and/or greater times
So , if there is a reasonable amount of variability
possible in some activity durations , a no. of
paths ,close to critical may develop in addition to
that critical path which is based on activity
expected times
In case of more than one possible critical paths,
we use joint possibilities
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
EXAMPLE
Problem Statement:
There is a network with
three possible critical
paths
Path A: T
E
=31
Path B T
E
=3o ------
Path c: T
E
=31 ------

What is the probability of
completing the project by
the end of day 30?
2.5
TE
o =
3.0
TE
o =
2.5
TE
o =
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Solution:
Path A:

P
-30
= 0.345=34.5%

Path B:
P
-30
= 0.50 = 50%

Path C:
P
-30
= 0.31 = 31%

P
-30 =
(0.34)*(0.50)*(0.31)
= 0.05 5%

30
30 31
0.4
2.5
z


= =
30
30 30
0
3.0
z


= =
30
30 31
0.50
2.0
z


= =
~
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem No:1(Pert)

There are two expected critical paths for a
construction project
Path 1:
Critical
activities
t
A
t
m
t
b
A 6 6 6
D 3 4 5
G 5 5 8
J 5 7 9
M 5 8 8
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem #1 (Conti)
Path 2:

Critical
activities
t
a

t
m
t
b
B 1 6 6
C 2 5 10
E 1 8 9
F 1 4 7
H 5 7 12
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Find the probability that the project will finish


By the end of day 30

Before the start of day 32

After the end of day 31

Find the date of completion with at least
93% confidence


(Use trial and error procedure )
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi
Problem # 2
Here are given three critical
paths

Find the probability that
project will finish:

By the end of day 50
Before the start of day 50
After the end of day 52
During day 51
Find the date of completion
with al least 90% confidence
Path-# T
E
TE
1 50 1.0
2 48 3.0
3 45 5.0
Prepared By: Prof. Dr. L. A. Qureshi

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