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but waste not by excess for Allah loveth not the wasters
Surah Al-araf (31)
Yet there is extreme shortages of Gas and Electricity leading to load shedding. Poor are paying 3-5 time more for their fuel costs than those in the cities, Increase in prices of modern commercial fuel, its lack of availability is forcing the consumer to step down on the energy ladder to biomass. Shift from kerosene use to biomass (down the energy ladder) has exposed women to unclean fuel, hazards of indoor air pollution, and hours of extra work in searching and collecting biomass. Indoor air pollution causes over 110,000 deaths in Pakistan annually.
Pakistan has amongst the worlds highest and fastest rising urbanization
Under 15 population 39%, pointing to spurt rather than gradual increase in energy demand Only 45% of urban population have access to grid electricity & Government has committed to electrify all villages
Increasing number of poor gaining access to modern energy for the first time
Rising income means increase in per-capita energy use new appliances, homes, cars and communication tools
MW
4,829
6,444 462 11,735
%
24
33 2 59
Private Sector
MW
IPPs KESC Rental & SPP Sub Total Grand Total 6,314 1,756 426 8,496 20,231
%
31 9 1 41 100
100000
80000
80566
MW
60000 54359 40000 36217 20000 18883 0 2007 2010 2015 Years 2020 2025 2030
24474
Energy Conservation
(Defined)
EC is not associated with rationing or curtailment of
EC Potential in Pakistan
Industry Transport Agriculture 30% 20% 20%
Buildings
Average
30%
25%
Possible Savings for Pakistan by EC US $ 4 Billion/Year.
ENERCON - 2009
Possible Saving:
Improved Design and Orientation: 30% Retrofits: 30% Efficient Appliances: 60% Renewable Energy (Solar Water Heaters / Heat
11, 00,000
2, 50,000 8, 50,000
Sanctioned Load
Existing Efficiency of the pump set
(Electric) (Diesel)
3100 MW
20-30 % 17-21%
Releasing 1400 + MW. Additionally distribution capacity freed and line losses reduced
Cost of efficiency Improvement (Efficient Motor, Pump and Redesign US $ 1200) . Payback 8-12 Months USAID has sponsored 11,000 tubewells for upgradation. Pilot program for efficient Solar tube wells underway as World Banks Project Preparation TA.
Example of Energy Conservation Opportunity in Industry Sector: Improving the Power Factor
Program Cost : Consumer Payback Benefits:
WAPDA
Released Generation Capacity Line Load Loss Reduction Released Capacity on Distribution System Consumers Annual Savings Million 72 MW 2% 2% Rs 400
GOP
Income from Fiscal measures Carbon Credits Rs 70 Million Large
Environment
GHG, suspended particles and other harmfully emissions reduced.
Savings:
Released Generation Capacity Released Distribution Capacity Carbon Credits Reduced Bills for consumers 2000 MW 4-5 % $ 10 Million / year
Global Response:
China, EU, Australia, 21 States of US, and many other countries have announced their phase-out programs for Incandescent Bulbs. Newer and more efficient technologies indoor LEDs are now rapidly being adopted
BENEFITS:
Released Generation Capacity Carbon Credits 300 MW $ 2 Million / year
Payback period
Equipment life (Safe) Solar Option
For new developments
Security Lighting
2.5 years
15 years
18
All (new) energy requirements be met by the least cost supply option
Alternative Energy
Renewable Energy
Alternate Fuels
Other Non-Conventional Energy
Alternative Energy
Renewable Energy
Wind Solar
Photovoltaic Thermal
Hydro Geo-Thermal
Alternative Fuels
Bio Diesel Ethanol Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) Waste-toEnergy Biogas
Loss of US $ 6 Billion in 2008 due to Load Conservation Shedding For Energy Security - Focus on Domestic Resources Resource Abundance Relieves Grid Resources Cost Effective Environment Friendly
Carbon Credits ($ 400 Million / yr) Land Degradation Controlled Employment Creation Poverty Alleviation Wind Solar Waste-to-Energy Small Hydro
Energy Source
Cost/Unit
1-3 Cents 5 -7 Cents 6 7 Cents 12 Cents 21 Cents Up to 28 Cents*
RFO (Thermal)
Current Potential
than 350,000 MW
Average wind speed more than 7 + m/s in Gharo Wind Corridor at
60m
More than 50,000 MW potential only in Gharo-Keti Bandar
identified
Yasin District Hot Sulphourus spring Geothermal springs located Within Reshun and Ayun fault domain
... ... .
.
Murtazabad Geothermal springs T: 26 - 92C Dassu area Skardu district Geothermal springs T: max: 71 C Mushkin geothermal spring T: 57 C Tatta Pani geothermal spring T: 65,5 - 83 C Bakkur thermal spring Taunsa thermal spring Zinda Pir thermal spring Uch thermal spring
Geothermal springs at the north of Zhob valley Geothermal springs at Harnai valley Giandari Hot Spot Geothermal springs at West of Dhadar, near Sanni Koh-e Sultan thermal springs T: 25,6 34,8 C
... . . . . . . . . ..
Khashkeli thermal gradient 3-3,5 C/100 m Mangho Pir geothermal spring T: 50,3 C
Karsaz geothermal spring Lakhra thermal gradientTalhar thermal gradient T: 39 C 3,3 C/100 m 3-3,5 C/100 m
RIVERS OF PAKISTAN
INDUS
JHELUM CHENAB
WESTERN RIVERS
RAVI SUTLAJ BIAS
IRAN
EASTERN RIVERS
30
Cogeneration/Biomass/W2E:
Geothermal:
4,000 MW
2,000 MW
Off-Grid Applications:
Alternate Fuels
10,000 MW
Large. TBD
Bio Diesel
Target: B10 by 2020 resulting in $ 1.0 Billion import substitution
Biodiesel Potential: 50 Million Tonnes Per Annum
26.4 Million Hectares of Waste Land 7.8 Million Hectares of Degraded land Estimate 1.2 Tones per annum per heater
Sources (Pakistan):
Castor Sukh Chain Jatropa
Combats
Land Degradation, Desertification Unemployment
Wind Energy
Technologies
Solar Home Systems Solar Water Heater Solar Water Pumping Clean Drinking Water Street lights RE for Businesses Small and Micro Hydro Heat pumps Bio Gas Off Grid Wind/Solar
3.
4. 5.
6.
7. 8.
9.
10. Counter Guarantee Concept introduced this summer 11. Improved policy Expected January 2010
3.
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
10. Sugar Co-Generation and heat recovery 11. Small domestic wind and solar application on net metering
Outside installation
53
55
Installation in Mosque
60
Jatropha in Sindh
Castor
Sukhchain
Jatropha
Grows on the Poorest of Soils Requires little water
(1 litre per tree every 2-3 weeks)
Harvested Seeds
Seeds produced are approx. 1/3rd weight of the fruit. So production of seed is approx. 1015 Kg per plant per year
Final Product
Waste To Energy
35 MW of Biogas / Waste to Energy operational. PPA for 15 MW signed between PESCO and Al-Moiz Industries & for 7 MW between FESCO and Shakarganj Sugar Mills. 3 New Waste to Energy Projects awarded Generation License by NEPRA (Indus Sugar Mills Rajanpur 11MW; Ghotki Sugar Mills 12 MW; JDW Sugar Mills Rahim Yar Khan 22 MW) 4 New Waste to Energy applications with NEPRA (Ramzan Sugar Mills Chiniot 12 MW; Ashraf Sugar Mills Bhawalpur 8 MW; Thal Energy 10 MW; Shakarganj Sugar Mills 20 MW) Pilot Phase of Landhi Cattle Colony Biogas Project completed. Asian Development Bank to finance solicitation of bids from the private sector US $ 325 K Waste to Energy Study initiated for Karachi to generate 10 MW power. World Bank Financing detailed Studies for 5 cities
3000 Solar Home Systems (49 villages) in Sind have been completed.
Another 100,000 SHS planned to be electrified by 2016 subject to provision of funds.
Outside installation
108
Small Hydel
10 Hydel plants (110 MW) in public sector to become operational in 2012 with ADB Funding (Punjab-5, NWFP -5 & NA-2). Detailed feasibility for 12 Hydel plants (187 MW) prepared and under review. Tariff application for 40 MW project at C.J. Link Tail, Punjab filed with NEPRA. First Hydel PPA (1 MW) signed between PESCO and Blue Star
Energy.
Feasibility Studies for additional 43 Small Hydel plants being initiated with assistance from GTZ and ADB. 102 micro hydel projects (15 MW) initiated in NA with AKF / UNDP-GEF collaboration.
Biodiesel
Energy plantations for Biodiesel cultivated on 650 acres so far in the country. Biodiesel production on a pilot scale initiated with PSOs collaboration. SRO 474(I)/2008 issued for tax exemptions on Biodiesel production equipment / specific items. Amendments in OGRA Ordinance for regulation of Biofuels finalized with Federal Cabinet.
Availability of Technology
Low Engineering Base Insufficient Infrastructure and lack of equipment, trained manpower and EPC contractors Modification of ancillary systems Grid Code, Net Metering Investment Diversion Due to poor base line of CDM
Summary
We are short of Energy We continue to be Wasteful
South Korea
Mexico Pakistan
0.531
0.530 0.447 Registered Project Activities by Host Party
9.981
10.175
Dawood Power
ZEPL
KAPCO
Orient Power
AES Pakgen
IPPs
15.695
7.9984
Annex
Deployment of Net Metering Concept The FIRST (retrofit) ZEB of Pakistan would be the Pakistan Engineering Council for which:
100 KW would be supplied by PV (being installed by JICA) Remaining energy needs would be met by Heat pumps
Properties of Jatropha
Property
Viscosity (cp) (30C) Speciflc gravity (15 C/4C) Solidfying Point (C) Cetane Value Flash Point (C) Carbon Residue (%) Distillation (C)
Diesel Oil
3.6 0.841 / 0.85 0.14 47.8 to 59 80 < 0.05 to < 0.15 < 350 to < 370 < 1.0 to 1.2
Sulfur (%)
Acid Value
0.13 to 0.16
1.0 to 38.2
Saponification Value
Iodine Value Refractive Index (30 C)
188 to 198
90.8 to 112.5 1.47
Technologies
Solar Home Systems Solar Water Heater Solar Water Pumping Clean Drinking Water Street lights
RE for Businesses
Solar Home Systems Small and Micro Hydro Heat pumps Bio Gas
Participating Donors
Arranged MultiYear Financing Framework for Alternate Energy for $ 510 Million. European Investment Bank will co finance $200 Million. Finalized TA through ADB to provide technical assistance to Baluchistan. Counter guarantee funds being provided by the ADB, World Bank and possibly Islamic Development Bank expected to follow. Detailed Study to solicit proposals for the Landhi Cattle Colony Power Project, Karachi. PURE project for small hydro in Chitral signed with UNDP, ZGEF, AEDB and AKF. Initiated a project through UNDP / GEF US $ 3.2 for barrier removal in the Wind Sector
Participating Donors
Organized CIM experts in the area of CDM, Solar Water heaters, Biodiesel, Solar Home Systems and Waste to Energy for various agencies Initiated Piolet projects on (Through W Bank funding):
Solar Water Pumping Waste to Energy, Solar Water Heating
When successful demonstrations are complete they will roll out the program. Developing Policy 2010 with the assistance of World Bank, Asian Development Bank, GTZ, UNDP and UNIDO. Organised Business to Business contacts in the Private Sector with German, UK and EU investors
Participating Donors
Holland tapping into ORIO and other international Programs (AEDB proposed coordinating agency)
USAID Projects on Energy Efficiency and Energy Policy AEDB National Coordinator. USTDA Waste to Energy Study Karachi. AEDB Chair Steering Committee. Euro 25 Million EU project to reduce poverty through AE projects in NWFP and Baluchistan finalized. AEDB to Cochair SC with the EU Focal Agency for the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and ENERGIA Bilateral MOUs with US, China, Korea, Malaysia, UK, JICA, JETRO and many other countries and Agencies
Capacity 1 to 5 hp Economics
Average Capital cost - $ 3750 Payback 6 years
Benefits
Revive agriculture on fast track Increase agriculture productivity Increase water and energy use efficiency
Installation by local companies with the equipment from FODP countries O&M by local partners with community
Cost per SHS - $ 1250 Installation by local companies with the equipment from FODP countries O&M by local partners with community Benefits
Additional working hours after dark Stimulate Income generating activities Facilitate eructation Increased security
3.
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
10. Sugar Co-Generation and heat recovery 11. Small domestic wind and solar application on net metering
Carbon Credits
Natural Gas Saving: 100%, the system does not use any gas for heating
Water Saving: 100%, the system saves 100% water Protection of Environment: There are no harmful emissions
Improvement of Indoor Air Quality: No respiratory problems like asthma, suffocation or bad odour, depression, fatigue and skin infections
The geothermal air conditioning system has a life cycle of over 50 years
150,000 Tonnes
500,000 Tonnes
Zero
100 MW
16 MW
200 MW
Bio-Gas
250,000 Units
TOTAL
Wind Solar Small Hydro Energy RDF / Waste-To-Energy Others
42 MW Zero Zero 26 MW 16 MW
Minimal
600 MW**
US $ 600 Million*
Achievements
Short Term RE policy under implementation Policy on Bio-Diesel being implemented Medium term policy on Renewable Energy under preparation Specific, measurable and achievable targets for RE prepared Wind data measured, analyzed and validated by internationally recognised agencies 1st Wind Power Plant to be inaugurated in February 2009 40 Small (below) 10 KW turbines operational in Karachi.
Achievements
110 MW new small hydro plants to become operational in 2011 103 Small Hydro Plants to generate 15 MW Off-grid (AEDB-EEF/ AKRSP) 34.5 MW Waste to Energy Plant Operational in Shakarghang, Al Moiz an other Sugar Mills
Achievements
4,514 Homes provided solar & wind power under the REP. Euro 25 Million EU project to reduce poverty through AE projects in Sindh and Baluchistan First Public Sector Projects in Solar, Hydro and Wind prepared and under negotiation with DFIs Pilot Projects for PV Water Pumping and Solar Water Heaters approved for AEDB financing. When successful, a $ 250 Million Loan will support the up scaling.
Hydro Power
Achievable by 2015 Small Hydro Energy
250 MW
Current Achievement
26 MW
Inefficient Boiler Replacement Program Implementation of the EC law Replacement program for inefficient appliances (boilers, heaters gyesers etc) Increased use of renewable energy with option to sell surplus to the grid Power Factor Improvement Program and line loss reduction program Improve energy intensity index
Cost per SHS - $ 1250 Installation by local companies with the equipment from FODP countries O&M by local partners with community Benefits
Additional working hours after dark Stimulate Income generating activities Facilitate eructation Increased security
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Series1
3.
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
10. Sugar Co-Generation and heat recovery 11. Small domestic wind and solar application on net metering