1

Exercise Problems in PSHA

Lecture-18
Example Problem 1
2
The hypothetical vertical fault segment shown in Fig.1 is represented as a quarter-
circle. On the same graph, plot histograms of expected epicentral distance for
motions at site A and site B assuming:
(a) Earthquakes are equally likely to occur at any point on the fault segment.
(b) Earthquakes are twice as likely to occur at the midpoint of the fault segment as
at either end and the likelihood is linearly distributed between the midpoint
and the ends.
Fault
Site B
12km
Site A
30km
12km 30km
N
Fig 1
3
Fault
Site B
12km
Site A
30km
12km 30km
N
Area =1
(a)Uniform distribution
0 90
1/90
P

Solution
4
Area =1
(b)Non-uniform distribution
0 90
1/135
P

2/135
Site A Histogram
Distance
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

30km
Solution
Uniform/Non-uniform
distribution
5
Solution
Site B Histogram
Distance
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

30km
45km
Uniform distribution
Site B Histogram
Distance
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

30km
45km
Non-uniform distribution
In a hypothetical seismically active region, earthquakes have been recorded over
an 80-year period. Part of the record is instrumental, but part is not. Combining all
available data, it appears that the earthquakes have been distributed as follows:







(a) Estimate the Gutenberg-Richter parameters for the region.
(b) Neglecting earthquakes of magnitude less than 3, compute the probability that
an earthquake in the region will have a moment magnitude between 5.5 and 6.5.
(c) Repeat Part (b) assuming that paleoseismic evidence indicates that the region is
not capable of producing earthquakes of moment magnitude greater than 6.5.






6
MOMENT MAGNITUDE
3-4
4-5
5-6
>6
1800
150
11
1
NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES
Example Problem 2




t= 80 years
M
w
>3, N
m
= 1962,
m
=24.525/year
log
m
= 1.390

M
w
>4, N
m
= 162,
m
=2.025/year
log
m
= 0.307

M
w
>5, N
m
= 12,
m
= 0.151/year
log
m
= -0.824

M
w
>6, N
m
= 1,
m
= 0.0125/year
log
m
= -1.886





7
Mw
3-4
4-5
5-6
>6
1800
150
11
1
N
Solution
8








M

log
M
=4.6782-1.096x

l
o
g

M


Solution
(a) From the plot of M vs log
M
, Gutenberg-Richter
parameters for the region are:

a = 4.6782
b = 1.096
9








M

% .
] [ ] [
] | . [ ] | . [
] | . . [
] | . [ ] | . [
] . . [ ) (
) . ( . .
00167 0
1 1
5 5 5 6
3 5 6 5 5
3
5 5 5 6
7 6 5 5
3 5 5 096 1 303 2 3 5 6 096 1 303 2
0 0
0
0 0
0
=
=
> s > s =
> s s
=
> s > s =
> s s

e e
M M M P M M M P
M M P
ForM
M M M P M M M P
M M M P b
) . ( . .
log
M
=4.6782-1.096x

l
o
g

M


Solution


10
0017 0
1 1
5 6 3 5 6 5 5
3 5 5 096 1 303 2 3 5 6 096 1 303 2
.
] [ ] [
] . | . . [ ) (
) . ( . . ) . ( . .
=
=
< s s s

e e
M M P c
Solution
log
M
=4.6782-1.096x

l
o
g

M


11
The seismicity of a particular region is described by the Gutenberg-Ritcher
recurrence law:
log
m=
4.0-0.7M

(a) What is the probability that at least one earthquake of magnitude
greater than 7.0 will occur in a 10-year period? In a 250-year period?

(b) What is the probability that exactly one earthquake of magnitude
greater than 7.0 will occur in a 10-year period? In a 50 year period? In a
250-year period?

(c)Determine the earthquake magitude that would have a 10% probability
of being exceeded at least once in a 50-year period?
Example Problem 3
log
m
=4.0- 0.7M








T=10years, P = 0.716
T=50years, P= 0.998
T=250years, P= 1






12
( )
1259 0 10 7
1
0 1 1
7 7 0 40
. ,
] [ ] [
!
.
= = =
=
= = >
= =

m
t
t n
M
e
N P N P
n
e
m

For
t
n] P[N (a)
Solution
13
(b) P[N=1]= t e
-t
T=10years, P = 0.357
T=50years, P= 0.012
T=250years, P=7x10
-13

5 9
7 0
002107 0 4
002107 0
.
.
) . log(
.
=

=
=
=
=
M
50
ln(0.9)
t
P) - ln(1
m

(c) P=1- e
-mt
Solution
Using given seismic hazard curve, estimate the probability of exceeding
a
max
= 0.3g in a 50 year period and in 500 years period
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
14
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max

0.001


Example Problem 4
Combining uncertainties-probability computations


In a 50 year period
P = 1- e
-t

= 1- exp[-(0.001)(50)]

= 0.049

= 4.9%

In a 500 yr period
P= 0.393= 39.3%




15
l
o
g

T
R


a
max
=0.30g


0.00
1


Solution
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max
=0.30g


0.001


Using seismic hazard curve, estimate the peak acceleration that has 10%
probability of being exceeded in a 50 yr period.
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
16
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max
=0.21g


0.0021


Example Problem 5
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations

10% in 50 yrs: = 0.0021
or
T
R
= 475 yrs

Use seismic hazard curve to find
a
max
value corresponding to
= 0.0021




17
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max
=0.21g


0.0021


475 yrs


Solution