10 YEARS OF DEMOCRATIC

GOVERNANCE IN NIGERIA:
PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES.
Comments
By
Zacharys Anger Gundu. Ph.D.
Department of Archaeology.
Ahmadu Bello University at the
Kaduna Round Table on Democracy and Development.
Women Multi Purpose Centre, Kaduna.
30th June, 2009.
10 YEARS OF NIGERIAN
DEMOCRACY.
 OUR UNDERSTANDING.
• To set the tone for a discussion on ‘10 Years of
Democratic Governance in Nigeria: Prospects
and Challenges’.
• To brainstorm and clarify the following
questions:
– What progress have we made in the past 10 years?
– What challenges have we faced.?
– Are these challenges surmountable?
– What can we do individually and collectively to make
the Nigeria of our dream a reality?
 BACKGROUND.
• 29TH May, 1999 marks the return to
Democracy.
• Highpoints :
• One of the most endowed countries in Africa.
• 100 million plus people.
• Incredible cultural diversity.
• Huge landmass.
• Resilient people.
 BACKGROUND (Cont).
• Low points:
• Return after decades of military rule.
• Weak institutions some of which were underdeveloped.
• Weak constitutional framework.
• Skewed federalism.
• Contempt for knowledge.
• Unresolved ethnic and religious questions.
• Unresolved citizenship questions.
• Overdependence on oil revenues.
• The leadership and wisdom Questions.
 ASSESSMENT CONTEXT.
• There are different perspectives from which one can
assess the country in the last 10 years.
• What have our leaders done with the resources generated
in the past 10 years?
• How faithful have they been to the promises made to us.
• What difference do we see in the key areas of the polity?
• Is the average Nigerian better off today than he/she was
before 1999?
 UNDERSTANDING BASIC FACTS.
• Since 1999, Nigeria has been led by one single Political Party: Which is the PDP.
• Between 1999-2009, the country has generated in excess of -N-36 trillion
• NNPC has retained -N-6 trillion of this amount.
• Between 1999 and 2009, the NNPC failed to remit -N- 368 billion to the Federation
Account.
• LG allocations have risen by 600% between 2000-2004.
• Statutory allocations to States increased from $1 to $6 billion between 2000-2004.
• With 1/3 of this increase going directly to Delta, Rivers, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom as
major oil producing States.
• The number of Universities has grown from 35 in 1999, to more than 100 in 2009.
• Less than 20% of eligible candidates get placements in Nigerian Universities.
UNDERSTANDING BASIC FACTS
(Cont).
• Primary Education needs 872,972 teachers, they
currently have 534,974 out of which those qualified are
just 294,884 (55.2%).
• About -N-1.3 trillion was spent to rehabilitate roads in the
country from 1999-2007.
• The National Assembly has passed 532 laws since 1999
• It costs an average of -N- 1 billion for the National
Assembly to pass one law.
• Appropriation to the National Assembly has risen from
-N-3.4 billion in 1999 to -N-106 billion in 2009.
• The EFCC has recovered in excess of $5 billion since
2005. It has also successfully prosecuted in excess of
82 people.
UNDERSTANDING BASIC FACTS
(Cont).
• Oil and gas account for 99% of the country’s export
revenues.
• Oil and gas accounts for 85% of Government revenues.
• $10 billion spent by President Obasanjo to build 10
power stations across the country.
• Nigeria ranks 159th out of 177 on the UN Human
Development index.
• More than 1/3 of Nigerians survive on less than a dollar
a day.
• Nigeria has earned about $400 billion dollars from Oil
since the early 70s.
 NIGERIA’S HIGHPOINTS SINCE
1999.
• A civilian to civilian transition and
uninterrupted ‘democratic’ rule.
• Telecom ‘explosion’. Tele density (no of lines
per 100 people) 47.98 % in 2009(April) as
against 0.74% in 2001.
• Banks Consolidation.
• The creation of EFCC and ICPC to fight
corruption.
• The Nigerian Extractive Industry
Transparency Initiative (NEITI).
 NIGERIA’S HIGHPOINTS SINCE
1999 (Cont).
• Institution of open bidding for oil blocks
(2005)which hitherto were awarded by
fiat.
• Growth of the non oil sector from 8.2% in
2005 to 9.6% in 2007.
• Drop in inflation to 5.9% in 2007.
• Phenomenal growth in the number of
Universities.
• Growth and maturity of the judiciary.
 A WORD ON THE HIGHPOINTS.
• Are we truly running a democracy?
• Improved Tele density based on the use of the cell phone
cannot support the telecom interface with development.
• Its doubtful whether Nigerian banks are doing actual
banking. In any case they are still the backbone of
corruption in Nigeria.
• Though the EFCC and ICPC did raise the country’s position
on the Transparency International Corruption perception
Index from 1.6 (in 2005) to 2.2 (in 2006), this figure has
stagnated and these institutions have been substantially
undermined and are today only symbolic.
• The NEITI has also been undermined by government to the
extent that no one is sure for example what the country
earns from oil and gas.
 A WORD ON THE HIGHPOINTS
(Cont).
• Revelations about corruption in the NNPC which between
1999-2007 was directly under the President also mean
that the NEITI was created probably as a smokescreen.
• The open bidding for oil blocks adopted since 2005 was
far from fair and transparent. The number of petitions,
court cases and probes surrounding the rounds of
bidding in 2005, 2006 and 2007 alone proves this point.
• The inflation figures touted by government are
suspicious.
• The phenomenal growth in the number of Universities
has not translated into quality nor spaces for qualified
candidates.
 NIGERIA’S LOW POINTS SINCE
1999.
• Unbridled corruption at all levels of public life.
• Human rights abuses: Odi, Zaki- Biam, Vaase,
Gbeji and the continuous assault on
communities and peoples of the Niger Delta.
• Rogue electoral system.
• Contempt for knowledge and the collapse of the
educational system.
 NIGERIA’S LOW POINTS SINCE
1999 (Cont).
• Wholesale /uncritical importation of economic
policies of the Breton Woods Institutions including
privatization, free market economy and public
sector reforms.
• Insecurity: Unresolved murders include those of
Chief Bola Ige, Harry Marshall, Funsho Williams,
Chief AA Dikibo, Sunday Ugwu, Alhaji Ahmed
Pategi, Victor Nwanko, Odunayo Olagbaju,
Barnabas and Abigail Igwe, Chimere Ikoku and
Chief Ogbonnaya Uche amongst many others.
 NIGERIA’S LOW POINTS SINCE
1999 (Cont).
• Infrastructure decay/collapse: Roads,
public utilities including electricity.
• Poor accountability and rule of law.
Though the rule of law has slightly
improved in the last two years, (respect for
court judgments) it still remains a major
issue.
• Inability to evolve an appropriate and
transparent tax regime for the country.
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• Most Nigerians still lack access to clean water,
electricity and health care.
• We are still to resolve the citizenship question
and give every Nigerian a sense of belonging in
every part of the country.
• We see each other as ‘settlers’ and ‘indigenes’
and have fought incessantly on this matter.
• We have also continued to use religion to mask
primordial cleavages, fighting and denying each
other in the process.
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• The Niger Delta crisis has remained a sour point for the
country.
• From OMPADEC to the NDDC to the Federal Ministry of
Niger Delta to Amnesty for militants, we seem to be
missing the point.
• Non performing budgets in which the Federal
government since 1999 has voted –N- 3.921 trillion for
capital projects and –N- 8.307 trillion on salaries and
allowances (recurrent expenditure).
• Until 2007, much of the capital vote was shared. In
2007, MDAs were compelled to return about -N-400
billion of unspent capital votes.
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• There is apathy in the land and the average Nigerian
looks at government as an inept rogue arrangement that
cannot be trusted.
• Nigerians remember that President Obasanjo promised
to increase electricity output 5 fold from 2,000
megawatts in 1999 to 10,000 in 2007.
• He spent $10 billion and by 2008, less than 3,000 was
been produced by PHCN!!!!!.
• People remember that President YarAdua promised to
declare a state of emergency in the power sector, more
than 2 years in his tenure, he is yet to do this. What
emergency!!!!!!
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• Nigerians remember President YarAdua acknowledging
that he emerged President through a flawed process and
promising to bequeath to the country a responsible
electoral system just to turn around and undermine the
Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Report and support
rigging in the Ekiti gubernatorial by- election.
• Nigerians remember that for 8 years President Obasanjo
was the Minister of Petroleum and this ministry was
totally unaccountable.
• Revelations are indicating that the ministry was not more
than a conduit pipe to siphon public funds.
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• Between 1999-2008,NNPC colluded with 4 local
companies over LPFO sales and defrauded the
government of -N-17 billion.
• Between 1999-2005, NNPC made illegal payments
to Texaco($25.6 million), Palm Ocean Oil ($16.9
million) and NNPC Crude Oil and Gas($31.6
million)-a non existing Company.
• We have a failed education system.
• We also have big leadership and wisdom
problems..
SO WHERE HAVE WE STOOD IN
THE PAST 10 YEARS.?
• How else can we explain the whole sale
importation of Breton Woods policies into the
country?
• How else can we explain the construction of 10
power stations in the country, totally dependent
on gas and transmission lines that are not there?
• How else can we explain the energy crises in an
oil producing country?
• How else can we explain the total collapse of
the education system.
 IS THE NIGERIAN CHALLENGE
INSURMOUNTABLE?
• NO. Our challenge is NOT insurmountable!!!!!.
• Yet everyone who has faith in the Nigerian
project must empower him/her self to take those
actions that can surmount the challenges we
face.
• A first step in doing this is to accept partial
blame for our plight as a people and as a
country.
• Whether big or small, military or civilian,
Christian or Muslim, rich or poor, man or woman,
educated or illiterate, we must share blame and
begin to stand up for our faith in this country.
 IS THE NIGERIAN CHALLENGE
INSURMOUNTABLE?
• While accepting that leadership is crucial to
national rebirth, if ordinary Nigerians stand up for
this country, the power of that action will
cleanse leadership, ensure electoral integrity
and accountability.
• We must also value knowledge and the wisdom
with which it interfaces with development.
• We have examples from Korea, India, Japan
China, Singapore, Malaysia to urge us on.
 IS THE NIGERIAN CHALLENGE
INSURMOUNTABLE?
• We must appreciate that the power to national
rebirth is within and not without.
• We must have faith in ourselves and create a
Nigeria where all are valued.
• We must create a system that is based on
taxation and not oil rents.
• We must go beyond lip service in governance
and religion.
• We must have the COURAGE to say ENOUGH
IS ENOUGH.
 IS THE NIGERIAN CHALLENGE
INSURMOUNTABLE?
• We must recognize that national rebirth
will threaten other countries and their tribe
of collaborators within.
• Lives/jobs and livelihoods may also be on
the line in facing this challenge. We must
brave these because true compatriots do
this time and time again.
• As a country, we must break and rewrite
the rules for ourselves.
 BREAKING AND RE WRITING
THE RULES.
• Through out the world, countries that have made
breakthrough development have re written the rules of the
game.
• ‘Globalization and free trade’ are held up by the west as
the mantra of development.
• The truth is, all western countries without exception have
one time or the other thrown out the concept of free trade,
• Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, China, South Africa, Japan
have all done it.
• We are headed for the wrong direction and the dangers
are real especially when an unaccountable leadership is in
place.
 BREAKING AND RE WRITING
THE RULES.
• Though rewriting the rules has worked, there
are great dangers to it.
• North Korea and Iran are going through a
terrible stigma because of their desire to
properly arm themselves.
• The invasion and plunder of Iraq by the US
(and its allies) was because of Saddam’s
determination to have a voice in the
community of nations.
 BREAKING AND RE WRITING
THE RULES.
• Mohammad Mossadegh of Iran was ousted by the
American CIA on the prompting of Britain because he
dared nationalize Iranian petroleum assets injuring British
interests in the process.
• The American puppet Mohammad Reza Shah was
imposed on the people even though Mossadegh was
democratically elected.
• Omar Torrijos of Panama was killed in a plane crash
masterminded by the CIA on July 31, 1981 for daring to
insist on the rights of his own people, stand up to Ronald
Reagan and champion human rights.
• He was replaced by the American puppet Manuel
Noriega.
 BREAKING AND RE WRITING
THE RULES.
• 1973 overthrow of President Salvador Allende
of Chile by the CIA.
• The CIA overthrow of Guatemala's Jacobo
Arbenz in 1954 following a dispute between
Arbenz and United Fruit Company over land
reforms. (less than 3% owned 70% of the
land).
• Replaced by another puppet, the right wing,
Col. Carlos Castillo Armas.
 NIGERIA OH NIGERIA.
• Nigeria, oh Nigeria.
• The country of my birth, rich, complex and full of talent. A
giant of sorts yet so poor and empty of wisdom. Nigeria
that continues to oil other parts of the world but cannot
oil its land, train her children and prepare for the rainy
day . Nigeria, oh Nigeria. A land of rogue leaders
including an evil genius and the butcher of Zaki- Biam.
A land eluded by accountability and visibility, a land
peopled by resilient people, blind and speechless,
unable to tap their intellect preferring to depend on non
renewable resources that tomorrow maybe no more. A
land that is raping and killing the cow from whose milk it
is feeding fat. Oh Nigeria, your rebirth is at hand even as
we mobilize to stand and say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.
THANK YOU, GOD BLESS YOU
AND NIGERIA.