Sampling Distributions

Copyright 2013, 2009, and 2007, Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 7
Sampling Distributions
Section 7.1
How Sample Proportions Vary Around the
Population Proportion

2
Example: Predicting Election Results
Using Exit Polls

How do we know if the sample proportion from the
California exit poll is a good estimate, falling close to the
population proportion?

The total number of voters was over nine million, and
the poll sampled a minuscule portion of them.

This section introduces a type of probability distribution
called the Sampling Distribution that helps us determine
how close to the population parameter a sample statistic
is likely to fall.

3

Using exit polls, polling organizations predict winners
after learning how a small number of people voted,
often only a few thousand out of possibly millions of
voters.

After sampling 3889 randomly selected voters,
53.1% said they voted for Brown, 42.4% for Whitman.

At the time of the exit poll, the percentage of the
entire voting population (nearly 9.5 million people) that
voted for Brown was unknown.
Using Exit Polls

4
How close can we expect a sample percentage to
be to the population percentage?

How does the sample size influence our analysis?

The sampling distribution helps us determine how
close to the population parameter a sample statistic is
likely to fall.
Using Exit Polls

5

Let X = vote outcome, with x = 1 for Jerry Brown and x = 0
for all other responses.

The possible values of the random variable X (0 and 1)
and how often these values occurred (0.469 and 0.531) give
the data distribution for this one sample.

The possible values of the random variable X (0 and 1)
and how often these values occurred (0.462 and 0.538) give
the population distribution.

Using Exit Polls

6
Figure 7.1 The population (9.5 million voters) and data (n=3889) distributions of
candidate preference (0 = Not Brown, 1= Brown). Question: Why do these look so similar?
Using Exit Polls

7

Sampling Distribution
The sampling distribution of a statistic is the probability
distribution that specifies probabilities for the possible
values the statistic can take.

A sampling distribution is merely a type of probability
distribution. Rather than giving probabilities for an
observation for an individual subject (as in a population
or data distribution), it gives probabilities for the value of
a statistic for a sample of subjects.
Using Exit Polls

8
Describing the Sampling Distribution of
a Sample Proportion

We typically use the mean to describe center and the standard
deviation to describe variability.

For the sampling distribution of a sample proportion, the mean
and standard deviation depend on the sample size n and the
population proportion p.

For a random sample of size n from a population with proportion
p of outcomes in a particular category, the sampling distribution of
the sample proportion in that category has
n
p p ) 1 (
deviation standard and p mean

9
Summary of Sampling Distribution of a
Sample Proportion
If n is sufficiently large so that the expected numbers
of outcomes of the two types, np in the category of
interest and n(1 - p) not in that category, are both at
least 15, then the sampling distribution of a sample
proportion is approximately normal.

Chapter 7
Sampling Distributions
Section 7.2
How Sample Means Vary Around the
Population Mean

11
How Sample Means Vary Around the
Population Mean
There are two main results about the sampling
distribution of the sample mean:

1. One result provides formulas for its mean and
standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

2. The other indicates that its shape is often
approximately a normal distribution, as we observed in
the previous section for the sample proportion.

12
Describing the Behavior of the Sampling
Distribution for the Sample Mean for any
Population
Even when a population distribution is not bell
shaped, the sampling distribution of the sample mean
can have a bell shape.
We also observe that the mean of the sampling
distribution of the sample mean appears to be the same
as the population mean , and the standard deviation of
the sampling distribution for the sample mean appears
to be:

This bell shape is a consequence of the central limit
theorem (CLT) .
)
n
(

13
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT): Describes
the Expected Shape of the Sampling
Distribution for Sample Mean x
For a random sample of size n from a population having
mean and standard deviation , then as the sample
size n increases, the sampling distribution of the sample
mean approaches an approximately normal distribution.

x

14
Population Distribution
Figure 7.8 Four Population Distributions and the Corresponding Sampling Distributions
of . Regardless of the shape of the population distribution, the sampling distribution
becomes more bell shaped as the random sample size n increases.
x

15
Example: Weekly Mean Sales
Aunt Ermas Restaurant in the North End of Boston specializes in
pizza that is baked in a wood-burning oven. The sales of food and
drink in this restaurant vary from day to day. Past records indicate
that the daily sales follow a probability (population) distribution with
a mean of and a standard deviation of .

1. What would we expect the weekly sample mean sales amounts
to fluctuate around (in dollars)?
2. How much variability would you expect in the weekly sample
mean sales figures?

Find the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the
sample mean, and interpret this standard deviation.
$900 $300

16
The mean of the assumed population distribution,
.

The sampling distribution of the sample mean for n = 7
has mean $900.

Its standard deviation equals

4 . 113 )
7
300
( )
n
(

$900

17
Figure 7.9 portrays a possible population distribution for
daily sales that is somewhat symmetric and unimodal.
Figure 7.9 A Population Distribution for Daily Sales and the Sampling Distribution of Weekly
Mean Sales . There is more variability day to day in the daily sales than week to
week in the weekly mean sales.
( 7) x n

18
Effect of n on the Standard Deviation
of the Sampling Distribution
With larger samples, the sample mean tends to fall closer to
the population mean.
Lets consider again the formula for the standard deviation of the
sample mean:

Notice that as the sample size n increases, the denominator
increases, so the standard deviation of the sample mean
decreases.

Again, with larger samples, the sample mean tends to fall closer
to the population mean.
)
n
(

Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
7.1 Suppose that 40% of men over the age of 30
suffer from lower back pain. For a random sample
of 50 men over the age of 30, find the mean and
the standard error of the sampling distribution of
the sample proportion of men over the age of 30
that suffer from lower back pain.
a) Mean = 0.40 Standard Error = 0.0693
b) Mean= 20 Standard Error = 3.464
c) Mean = 0.40 Standard Error = 3.464
d) Mean = 20 Standard Error = 0.0693
e) Cannot be determined

7.2 Suppose that 40% of men over the age of 30
suffer from lower back pain. For a random sample of
50 men over the age of 30 find the mean and the
standard deviation of X (the number of men over the
age of 30 that suffer from lower back pain.)

a) Mean = 0.40 Standard Error = 0.0693
b) Mean = 20 Standard Error = 3.464
c) Mean = 0.40 Standard Error = 3.464
d) Mean = 20 Standard Error = 0.0693
e) Cannot be determined
7.3 Suppose that a pre-election poll of 500 people
showed that 51% of the sample supported the
incumbent senator. If the population proportion
who supported the incumbent senator is really
48%, how likely is it that we would see poll results
such as this or higher?
a) 0.006
b) 0.03
c) 0.0901
d) 0.9099
e) 0.9680
7.4 Suppose that 80% of Americans prefer milk
chocolate to dark chocolate. Is the sampling
distribution of the sample proportion that prefers
milk chocolate approximately normally distributed
for samples of size 200?
a) Yes, because n is bigger than 30.
b) Yes, because n is bigger than 15.
c) Yes, because and .
d) No, because or is not greater than
15.
15 (1 ) 15 np n p
(1 ) n p np
7.5 What is the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion if and ?
a) Approximately Normal with a mean of p and a
standard error of

b) Approximately Normal with a mean of np and
a standard error of

c) Approximately Binomial with a mean of p and
a standard error of

d) Approximately Binomial with a mean of np and
a standard error of
15 np (1 ) 15 n p
(1 ) p p
n

1 p p
n
(1 ) np p
(1 ) np p
7.6 Suppose that you and 100 other people ask
25 randomly selected workers how much money
they spent on lunch. Which of the following
statements would be true?
a) All samples would result in the same sample
mean.

b) All samples would results in slightly different
sample means.
7.7 Suppose that you wanted to take a sample of
South Carolina elementary school teachers. What
impact does using a larger sample size have on the
sampling distribution of ?
a) The mean will increase.
b) The mean will decrease.
c) The standard error will increase.
d) The standard error will decrease.
x
7.8 Suppose that South Carolina elementary school
teacher salaries have a distribution that is right
skewed with a mean of $27,000 and a standard
deviation of $2,000. Suppose that someone took a
random sample of 40 elementary school teachers
salaries and found the sample mean. What is the
standard error of ?
a)
b)
c)
d)

2, 000
2, 000/ 40
2, 000/ 40
27, 000/ 40
x
7.9 Suppose that for people in Idaho the
population mean number of hours worked per
week is 40.2 hrs and the population standard
deviation is 0.4 hrs. Between what two values
will 95% of all sample means from all possible
samples of size 40 lie between?
a) (38.94, 41.47)
b) (39.40, 41.00)
c) (40.07, 40.33)
d) (40.14, 40.26)

7.10 For which combination of population and
sample size listed below will you find the
sampling distribution of the sample mean
approximately normally distributed?
a) Population is Right Skewed and n = 10
b) Population is Right Skewed and n = 40
c) Population is Bell Shaped and n = 10
d) B and C only
e) A, B and C
7.11 True or False: For one population
distribution there is only one data distribution.
a) True

b) False
7.12 With larger sample sizes there is a greater
likelihood that the data distribution
a) will look similar to the population distribution.
b) will look less like the population distribution.
c) is the same as the sampling distribution of the
sample mean.
d) is the same as the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion.
7.13 The distribution of textbook sales for all
college students is right (Rt.) skewed with a mean
of $300 and a standard deviation of $120.
Suppose that a researcher who didnt know this
information sampled 40 students. She found that
the students paid $280 on average with a standard
deviation equal to $109. What is the population
distribution?
a) Shape: Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:
b) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:
c) Shape: Rt. Skewed Mean: 300 Stdev:
d) Shape: Rt. Skewed Mean: 280 Stdev:
120
120
120/ 40
109
7.14 The distribution of textbook sales for all college students
is right (Rt.) skewed with a mean of $300 and a standard
deviation of $120. Suppose that a researcher who didnt know
this information sampled 40 students. She found that the
students paid $280 on average with a standard deviation
equal to $109. What is the data distribution?
a) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:
b) Shape: Most likely Rt. Skewed Mean: 280 Stdev:
c) Shape: Most likely Rt. Skewed Mean: 300 Stdev:
d) Shape: Approx. Rt. Skewed Mean: 300 Stdev:

120
120/ 40
109
120/ 40
7.15 The distribution of textbook sales for all
college students is right (Rt.) skewed with a mean
of $300 and a standard deviation of $120. Suppose
that a researcher who didnt know this information
sampled 40 students. She found that the students
paid $280 on average with a standard deviation
equal to $109. What is the sampling distribution of
the sample mean for a sample of size 40?
a) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:
b) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 280 Stdev:
c) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:
d) Shape: Approx. Normal Mean: 300 Stdev:

120
120/ 40
109
109/ 40

Sampling Distributions

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Copyright 2013, 2009, and 2007, Pearson Education, Inc.

Example: Weekly Mean Sales

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