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    THINKING OUTSIDE the CARBON BOX: Science and Policy Issues of Tropical Deforestation - Climate Feedbacks Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo1,3, Kevin Robert Gurney1,3, Matt Huber1,3, Gerald Shively2,3 1Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University; 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University 3Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) In Cooperation with the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Manila Observatory (MO) With the release of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 2008 Bali Action Plan, tropical deforestation has emerged as a significant source of carbon emissions. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has become the center of an active discussion in the climate change science and policy community. But this focus on carbon sequestration in forests, although important, is incomplete in assessing the impacts of deforestation on climate change. Biosphere-atmosphere dynamics are affected by biogeophysical factors as profoundly as by the carbon cycle. Thus, we need a deeper understanding of how the terrestrial biosphere and climate interact in ways beyond just the carbon feedback in order to make better climate change projections and mitigation decisions. Research to date has two critical limitations. The first is that coupled land-use/climate modeling has not incorporated realistic scenarios of deforestation nor has the sensitivity to the space-time patterns of deforestation been explored. Secondly, there also has been little attempt to include the dynamic feedbacks between socioeconomic constraints within tropical forests and the climate-biosphere system. Our ongoing research explores a more realistic evolution of deforestation scenarios and their coupling to the earth-atmosphere system through the integration of biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and human dimensions. We aim to analyze the impacts of different deforestation (or preservation) pathways, which may vary by the amount of forest remaining, the annual rates, and the region (South America, Central Africa or Southeast Asia) where deforestation is occurring. This work is comprised of three stages: (1) offline sensitivity analysis using the Community Land Model (CLM ver. 3.5) with dynamic global vegetation, (2) fully-coupled sensitivity analysis using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), and (3) the development and integration of a socio-economic module. Currently, the project is in the early stages of Phase 2, in which model code modifications tested in Phase 1 are incorporated into CCSM3. Modifications involve the forcing of “deforestation curves” through annual removal of trees in the tropics and control over establishment of new vegetation. Two annual deforestation rates are explored – 10% vs. 1% – while enforcing a 10% forest preservation target. Results of this preliminary rate sensitivity analysis reflect that deforestation pathways are likely to matter at least regionally as there are differences in the response of key biogeophysical parameters that affect climate. These results, in turn, will bear significantly on short- to long-term adaptation and mitigation – and overall development – initiatives. find out more at the Ateneo Innovation Center : www.ateneoinnovation.org

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    THINKING OUTSIDE the CARBON BOX: Science and Policy Issues of Tropical Deforestation - Climate Feedbacks Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo1,3, Kevin Robert Gurney1,3, Matt Huber1,3, Gerald Shively2,3 1Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University; 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University 3Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) In Cooperation with the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Manila Observatory (MO) With the release of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 2008 Bali Action Plan, tropical deforestation has emerged as a significant source of carbon emissions. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has become the center of an active discussion in the climate change science and policy community. But this focus on carbon sequestration in forests, although important, is incomplete in assessing the impacts of deforestation on climate change. Biosphere-atmosphere dynamics are affected by biogeophysical factors as profoundly as by the carbon cycle. Thus, we need a deeper understanding of how the terrestrial biosphere and climate interact in ways beyond just the carbon feedback in order to make better climate change projections and mitigation decisions. Research to date has two critical limitations. The first is that coupled land-use/climate modeling has not incorporated realistic scenarios of deforestation nor has the sensitivity to the space-time patterns of deforestation been explored. Secondly, there also has been little attempt to include the dynamic feedbacks between socioeconomic constraints within tropical forests and the climate-biosphere system. Our ongoing research explores a more realistic evolution of deforestation scenarios and their coupling to the earth-atmosphere system through the integration of biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and human dimensions. We aim to analyze the impacts of different deforestation (or preservation) pathways, which may vary by the amount of forest remaining, the annual rates, and the region (South America, Central Africa or Southeast Asia) where deforestation is occurring. This work is comprised of three stages: (1) offline sensitivity analysis using the Community Land Model (CLM ver. 3.5) with dynamic global vegetation, (2) fully-coupled sensitivity analysis using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), and (3) the development and integration of a socio-economic module. Currently, the project is in the early stages of Phase 2, in which model code modifications tested in Phase 1 are incorporated into CCSM3. Modifications involve the forcing of “deforestation curves” through annual removal of trees in the tropics and control over establishment of new vegetation. Two annual deforestation rates are explored – 10% vs. 1% – while enforcing a 10% forest preservation target. Results of this preliminary rate sensitivity analysis reflect that deforestation pathways are likely to matter at least regionally as there are differences in the response of key biogeophysical parameters that affect climate. These results, in turn, will bear significantly on short- to long-term adaptation and mitigation – and overall development – initiatives. find out more at the Ateneo Innovation Center : www.ateneoinnovation.org

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    Outside The Box - Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo Purdue University Purdue Climate Change Research Center

    Uploaded by

    Matthew Cua
    THINKING OUTSIDE the CARBON BOX: Science and Policy Issues of Tropical Deforestation - Climate Feedbacks Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo1,3, Kevin Robert Gurney1,3, Matt Huber1,3, Gerald Shively2,3 1Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University; 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University 3Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) In Cooperation with the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Manila Observatory (MO) With the release of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 2008 Bali Action Plan, tropical deforestation has emerged as a significant source of carbon emissions. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has become the center of an active discussion in the climate change science and policy community. But this focus on carbon sequestration in forests, although important, is incomplete in assessing the impacts of deforestation on climate change. Biosphere-atmosphere dynamics are affected by biogeophysical factors as profoundly as by the carbon cycle. Thus, we need a deeper understanding of how the terrestrial biosphere and climate interact in ways beyond just the carbon feedback in order to make better climate change projections and mitigation decisions. Research to date has two critical limitations. The first is that coupled land-use/climate modeling has not incorporated realistic scenarios of deforestation nor has the sensitivity to the space-time patterns of deforestation been explored. Secondly, there also has been little attempt to include the dynamic feedbacks between socioeconomic constraints within tropical forests and the climate-biosphere system. Our ongoing research explores a more realistic evolution of deforestation scenarios and their coupling to the earth-atmosphere system through the integration of biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and human dimensions. We aim to analyze the impacts of different deforestation (or preservation) pathways, which may vary by the amount of forest remaining, the annual rates, and the region (South America, Central Africa or Southeast Asia) where deforestation is occurring. This work is comprised of three stages: (1) offline sensitivity analysis using the Community Land Model (CLM ver. 3.5) with dynamic global vegetation, (2) fully-coupled sensitivity analysis using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), and (3) the development and integration of a socio-economic module. Currently, the project is in the early stages of Phase 2, in which model code modifications tested in Phase 1 are incorporated into CCSM3. Modifications involve the forcing of “deforestation curves” through annual removal of trees in the tropics and control over establishment of new vegetation. Two annual deforestation rates are explored – 10% vs. 1% – while enforcing a 10% forest preservation target. Results of this preliminary rate sensitivity analysis reflect that deforestation pathways are likely to matter at least regionally as there are differences in the response of key biogeophysical parameters that affect climate. These results, in turn, will bear significantly on short- to long-term adaptation and mitigation – and overall development – initiatives. find out more at the Ateneo Innovation Center : www.ateneoinnovation.org

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    of 27

    THINKING OUTSIDE THE

    CARBON BOX:
    Science and Policy Issues of
    Tropical Deforestation-
    Climate Feedbacks
    Charlotte Kendra G. Castillo
    Purdue University
    Purdue Climate Change Research Center
    In cooperation with
    The Manila Observatory (MO)
    World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF)
    Reducing Emissions
    from Deforestation and
    Degradation (REDD) -

    Only half the


    picture?
    Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle
    Effects on
    Large-scale Deforestation
    (Bala et al. PNAS Vol. 14, No. 6, 17 April 2007)

    • Global deforestation: 1113 ppmv CO2


    (vs. 732 ppmv in Standard) but cooler by
    ~0.3K.
    • Combined carbon cycle and biophysical
    effects of deforestation in different
    regions:
    Tropical Temperate Boreal
    net warming of +0.7K near-zero temperature net cooling of -0.8K
    change of -0.04K

    +199 ppmv CO2 +110 ppmv CO2 +5 ppmv CO2


    422 PgC released 316 PgC released 80 PgC released
    The ‘Whole’ Picture
    Impacts of Deforestation
    WARMING: COOLING:
    • Adding CO2 to • Increasing surface
    atmosphere albedo, thus
    • Eliminating possible decreasing radiation
    carbon storage in trees absorbed at surface.
    • Decreasing
    evapotranspiration
     triggers changes in
    water vapor, clouds,
    lapse rates which affect
    local and global
    temperature changes.
    Carbon Cycle Effects Biophysical Effects

    • Manifested globally • Most strongly felt at


    regional scales; need
    more research to
    establish
    teleconnections.
    • Lag between cause and
    effect • “Instant” impact (e.g.
    • Justification for albedo)
    promoting
    • Not considered in
    reforestation/afforestati
    on policy

    How do we weigh/trade off impacts of different


    scales in climate policy???
    Gaps in current
    research:
    • Deforestation applied
    unrealistically in models
    – Rates and spatial patterns may
    matter given integration of
    biogeophysics with carbon cycle.
    • No common metrics.
    – Crucial also from a policy
    standpoint.
    • Human dimension not yet
    coupled to earth system models.
    Research Objectives
    • Full earth system integration using
    Community Climate System Model
    ver.4 (atm, lnd, ice, ocn)
    • More realistic deforestation via annual
    forcing
    • Analyze sensitivity of “transitional”
    and equilibrium climate to different
    deforestation pathways (rate +
    preservation target)
    PHASE 1
    Offline Biosphere Sensitivity
    Analysis:
    •Sensitivity to Preservation

    Researc
    Target
    •Sensitivity to Deforestation
    Rates

    h Flow
    •Sensitivity to Spatial Patterns
    •Sensitivity to Region

    PHASE 2
    Coupled Physical System
    Sensitivity Analysis:
    •Sensitivity to Preservation
    Target
    •Sensitivity to Deforestation
    Rates
    •Sensitivity to Spatial Patterns
    •Sensitivity to Region Development Socio-economic
    Policy Implications of Optimization Schemes for
    Sensitivity Analysis Forest Preservation vs.
    Deforestation-for-Agriculture
    Decisions.

    PHASE 3
    Integration of Socio-Economic
    Scheme into Climate System
    and Modeling Feedbacks and
    Impacts.

    Policy Implications of
    Integrated Modeling
    Preliminary Fully-
    Coupled Results
    • CCSM3
    – Reflects impact of biophysics on
    climate
    – +Dynamic Global Veg Model
    (DGVM)
    – Contrast sensitivity to 10% vs.
    1% annual deforestation rate.
    – 10% preservation target.
    – Applied across tropical band
    (30deg S to 30degN).
    10% Annual Deforestation 1% Annual Deforestation

    • Continue reaping • Upfront costs required


    economic benefits (for to slow deforestation.
    ~20 years until
    preservation target is • Deforestation
    hit). continues longer
    (~70-80 years) though
    at a slower rate.
    • Deforestation ceases
    sooner. Land cover
    and climate also
    “stabilize” sooner.
    Both scenarios have the same preservation target
    but will the “transitional” climate differ?
    SE Asia

    COOLING?
    SE Asia

    WARMING?
    10%

    control 10%

    1%

    1%

    control
    control

    1%

    10%

    10%

    control

    1%
    Preliminary Findings
    • How a preservation target is
    reached may be as
    important as the target
    itself.

    – Effect of pathways more


    distinguishable regionally
    • In SURFACE TEMPs
    • In MOISTURE fluxes.
    Preliminary Findings
    • Biophysics vs. biophysics
    – Increase in albedo vs. decrease
    in latent heat flux

    • Biogeochemistry vs.
    biogeochemistry
    – Transient increase in
    photosynthetic uptake due to
    grasses vs. loss of carbon
    stocks from mature trees
    Preliminary Findings
    • However, full interaction
    between biophysics and
    carbon cycle still uncertain
    – biosphere-atmosphere C
    fluxes not captured.
    Both adaptation and mitigation efforts
    need to be informed by
    comprehensive, fully-coupled modeling
    of the earth system leading to
    desired/prescribed scenarios.

    Do we need a “climate effectiveness


    index”?
    Future Work
    Integrate with socio-economic module
    •

    Land cover
    decisions Economic agent
    optimization
    module
    (rapid response)
    CCSM4 +
    Annual Adjustmen
    DGVM
    climate ts
    data
    General
    x-year equilibrium model
    climate (slow response)
    averages
    THANK YOU!
    Acknowledgements
    • Kevin Robert Gurney1,3 , Matt Huber1,3 , Gerald Shively2,3
    1
    Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue
    University;
    2
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University
    3
    Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC)

    • Manila Observatory
    • World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), Philippines

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