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Short-term Forecast
2.
Intermediate-term Forecast
3.
Long-term Forecast
Forecasting Technique
4.
Qualitative Techniques
5.
6.
Causal Methods
MONTH
MOTORCYCLES DEMANDED
January
60
February
70
March
50
April
90
May
10
June
80
July
150
August
70
September
110
October
150
November
130
May
September
TABLE 1
3 and 5 Months Moving Average
Period
Month
Motorcycles
Demanded
3mo
moving
ave.
5mo
moving ave
Jan
60
Feb
70
Mar
50
Apr
90
60
May
10
70
June
80
50
56
July
150
60
60
Aug
70
80
76
Sept
110
100
80
10
Oct
150
110
84
11
Nov
130
110
112
12
Dec
130
122
W1 X1
1=1
TABLE 2
Exponential Smoothing Forecast
Period
Month
Motorcycles
Demanded
WMA
Jan
60
Feb
70
Mar
50
Apr
90
58
May
10
74
June
80
42
July
150
61
Aug
70
101
Sept
110
96
10
Oct
150
106
11
Nov
130
122
12
Dec
132
F1+1 = a Y1 + (1 a) F1
a = 0.10 therefore (1 - a) = 0.90 then substitute to the
exponential smoothing formula.
F3
F5
= aY2 + (1 a) F2
F4
= aY3 + (1 a) F3
= 7 + 54
= 5 + 54.9
= 61
= 59.9
= aY4 + (1 a) F4
F6
= aY5 + (1 a) F5
= 9 + 53.91
= 5 + 56.62
= 62.91
= 57.62
Compute until you reached F12. Then compute for
a = 0.30 from F3 to F12
TABLE 3
Exponential Smoothing Forecast
Period
Month
Motorcycles
Demanded (Y1)
a = 0.10
a = 0.30
Jan
60
---
---
Feb
70
60
60
Mar
50
61
63
Apr
90
59.9
59.1
May
10
62.91
68.37
June
80
57.62
50.86
July
150
59.86
59.60
Aug
70
68.87
86.72
Sept
110
68.98
81.70
10
Oct
150
73.08
90.19
11
Nov
130
80.77
108.13
12
Dec
85.69
114.69
ADJUSTED FORECAST:
T4
AF3 = F3 + 4T3
= 61 + 4 (0.20)
= 0.20 + 0
= 61 + 0.80
= 0.20
= 61.80
AF4 = F4 + 4T4
= 59.9 + 4 (-0.06)
= 59.9 + 0.24
= - 0.22 + 0.16
= 59.66
= - 0.06
Compute until you reached T12.
TABLE 4
Adjusted Smoothing Forecast
Period
Month
Motorcycles
Demanded (Y1)
Forecast
F1+1
a = 0.10
Adjusted
Forecast
B = 0.20
Jan
60
---
---
Feb
70
60
60
Mar
50
61
61.8
Apr
90
59.9
59.66
May
10
62.91
65.11
June
80
57.62
55.14
July
150
59.86
59.66
Aug
70
68.87
75.91
Sept
110
68.98
74.70
10
Oct
150
73.08
80.42
11
Nov
130
80.77
93.21
12
Dec
85.69
99.57