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Planning and Demography

Demography is the scientific study of human population.


Demographers are very interested in:
1) Population size,
2) Population composition,
3) Population distribution,
4) Causes of changes in these factors over time,
5) Consequences of these changes over time.
Demographers study in detail these changes over time,
investigating issues such as changes in fertility rates, mortality
rates, and migration.
Planners are also very interested in these very same issues, but
from a perspective of:
--how do population changes influence the demand for and
provision of infrastructure and public services
--how will population changes impact the environment
--how do population changes influence changes in land use

Population Size
Population size: The number of people in a given geography at a
given time.
U.S., Florida, and Leon County Population 1960-2000
1960

US
FL
LC

1970

1980

1990

2000

179,323,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906


4,951,560

6,789,443

9,746,324

12,937,926

15,982,378

74,225

103,047

148,665

192,493

239,452

Natural Increase: The amount of population increase attributable


to a greater number of births than deaths.
--In US in 1990, 17 births per 1000, 9 deaths per 1000
a natural increase of 8 per 1000 (0.8%) (290 million)
--World 1.8% per year for natural increase (6.26 billion)
Use the Rule of 70 to determine doubling time: Divide 70 by
the growth rate. So World will double population in ~39 years
(70/1.8 = ~39)

Population Distribution
Population distribution: The location of population across
geography/space.
Major shifts in population distribution occurred in the Twentieth
Century in the United States:
--Concentration: Movement from Rural to Urban/Metro Areas
--Deconcentration: Movement from Central Cities to Suburbs
--Migration from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt
Planners are particularly interested in these changes and their
impacts on the built and natural environments.
These macro-level changes have tremendous impacts upon
communities of all sizes and in all areas of the United States.

Concentration Illustrated

Roughly 4 of every 5 Americans


lives in a metropolitan area now.

Deconcentration Illustrated

As of 2000, 1 of every 2 Americans


lives in a suburban area.

Regional Shifts Illustrated

Regional Shifts Illustrated

Population Composition
Population composition: The characteristics of the
population.
Among those characteristics of interest to demographers and
planners are:
--Age
--Sex
--Race/Ethnicity
Again, the United States experienced many changes in these
attributes throughout the Twentieth Century:
--An aging population
--The rise of women
--An increasingly racially and ethnically diverse
population

An Aging Population Illustrated

An Aging Population Illustrated

The Rise of Women Illustrated

A Diversifying Population Illustrated

A Diversifying Population Illustrated

Population Pyramids
One way of looking at changes in the composition of a population
is through Population Pyramids.
Population pyramids show the composition of a population by age
and sex (percent population in all age-sex cohorts)
These pyramids typically show the following:
--Males on left side/Females on the right side
--Age groups as individual cohorts going from youngest on
the bottom to oldest on the top
These pyramids can be done for different geographies and/or
different racial and ethnic groups.

U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000

Floridas Population Pyramid, 2000

Franklin County Population Pyramid, 2000

Leon County Population Pyramid, 2000

Measuring Population Change


Population change is simply the difference in population between
two points in time.
Change can be expressed in Absolute or Percentage terms.
Absolute Change: The simple difference between population
figures. Negative values indicate a loss in population.
Floridas Absolute Population Change 1990-2000
Pop 2000

Pop 1990
15,982,378

12,937,926
=
3,044,452
Percent Change: The relative growth rate over a period of time
calculated as a percentage using the formula: [(New-Old)/Old] *100
Floridas Percent Population Change 1990-2000
(Pop2000-Pop1990)/Pop1990*100
(15,982,378- 12,937,926)
* 100 = 23.53%
12,937,926

Example Percent Population Change Analysis


U.S., Florida, and Leon County Population Change 1960-2000
1960
U.S.
%Chg

1980

1990

2000

179,323,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906


4,951,560

Florida
%Chg

1970

74,225

13.3%

11.5%

9.8%

13.2%

6,789,443

9,746,324

12,937,926

15,982,378

37.1%

43.6%

32.7%

23.5%

103,047

148,665

192,493

239,452

38.8%

44.3%

29.5%

24.4%

Leon Co
%Chg
Florida and Leon County grew at much faster rates than the

United States as a whole during the period 1960-2000.


Leon Countys growth mirrored that of Floridas during this
period.

Components of Population Change


Demographers rely upon the Demographic Balancing Equation
to very simply and elegantly summarize population change:
Pop2 = Pop1 + B D + IM OM, where
Pop2 = Population at a later time period
Pop1 = Population at an earlier time period
B = Births
Migration
D = Deaths
Mortality
IM = In-Migration
OM = Out-Migration
Fertility
The nature of population change is simple changes can only
occur through: 1) Births, 2) Deaths, or 3) Migration

Fertility Component
Fertility: The number of births that occur to an individual or in a
population.
Fecundity: The physiological ability of individuals or couples to have
children. Maximum fecundity for a population is believed to be 15
children.
Another key concept is the at-risk population. Only a certain subset
of the population is at-risk for fertility Women aged 12-50
Factors that affect fertility include:
1) Gender (Duh!)
4) Socioeconomic status
2) Age
5) Others Religion, Culture, Education
3) Race/Ethnicity
Common calculations related to fertility include:
1) Total Fertility Rate: Average # of children in a synthetic family
2) General Fertility Rate: #Births per 1000 women of childbearing age
3) Crude Birth Rate: # Births/Midyear Population

Mortality Component
Mortality: Analyzes the number and causes of deaths in a population.
Life Span: The upper limit to human lives is theorized to be
somewhere around 120, although there are reports of some people
living as long as 135 years.
Factors affecting mortality include:
1) Age (J-curve)
4) Race/Ethnicity
2) Gender
5) Modernity
3) Socioeconomic status
Common calculations related to mortality include:
1) Overall Death Rate: Deaths per 1000 population
2) Crude Death Rate: # Deaths/Midyear Population
3) Age-Sex-Race specific survival rates: The likelihood that an
individual with certain characteristics will survive the year
4) Life Expectancy: The expected number of years an individual will
live if they were to live their entire life right now.
In 1900~30 (worldwide)
By 2000~70 (worldwide)

Theory of the Demographic Transition


When taken together, mortality and fertility can combine to form four
scenarios:

Mortality
Low

High

Low

USA, Japan,
W. Europe, Aus.

None

High

Southern Africa,
Latin Amer.
Asia (parts)

Northern Africa,
Asia (parts)

Fertility

It is theorized that as countries move from less developed to more


developed, they transition from a High Birth/High Death society to one
of Low Birth/Low Death. It is during this transition that (it is theorized)
developing countries experience a population boom. Why?

Migration Component
Migration: The movement of people into and out of a certain area.
Migration can occur at all geographic levels.
1) Neighborhood
2) Within a county
3) Across states: Out-migration versus In-migration
4) To a different country: Emigration (out of a country) versus
Immigration (into a country)
Migration in the United States:
Approximately 20% of Americans move per year
Americans move about 11 times over their lifetimes (on average)
Factors affecting migration include
1) Age
2) Gender
3) Socioeconomic Status
4) Race and Ethnicity

Major State to State Migration Flows

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