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SYLLABUS
Cash
CAPITAL
CAPITAL BUDGETING
BUDGETING AND
AND
ESTIMATING
ESTIMATING CASH
CASH FLOWS
FLOWS
WHAT
WHAT IS
IS CAPITAL
CAPITAL
BUDGETING?
BUDGETING?
The
THE
THE CAPITAL
CAPITAL
BUDGETING
BUDGETING PROCESS
PROCESS
THE
THE CAPITAL
CAPITAL
BUDGETING
BUDGETING PROCESS
PROCESS
CLASSIFICATION OF
INVESTMENT PROJECT
PROPOSALS
1. New products or expansion of
existing products
2. Replacement of existing equipment
or buildings
3. Research and development
4. Exploration
5. Other (e.g., safety or pollution
related)
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
SCREENING
PROPOSALS
AND DECISION MAKING
1.
2.
3.
4.
Section Chiefs
Advancement
Plant Managers
to
the
next
VP for Operations
level depends
Capital Expenditures
on cost
Committee
and strategic
5. President
importance.
6. Board of Directors
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
Sound
Problems
NPV rule
What should be discounted? In theory,
the answer is: We should always
discount cash flows.
What rate should be used to discount
cash flows? In principle, the opportunity
cost of capital should be used as the
discountMBA
rate.
& PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
Second,
12
EXAMPLE
Suppose a firm is considering replacing an
equipment at book value of Rs. 5000 and market
value of Rs. 3000. New equipment will require an
initial cash outlay of Rs 10,000, and is estimated to
generate cash flows of Rs 8,000, Rs 7,000 and Rs
4,500 for the next 3 years.
The book value of old machine is a sunk cost.
Market value is opportunity cost.
Thus, on an incremental basis the net cash outflow
of new equipment is: Rs 10,000 Rs 3,000 = Rs
7,000.
Also, The differences of the cash flows of new
equipment over
the cash flows of old equipment
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
are incremental cash flows.
COMPONENTS OF CASH
FLOWS
Initial Investment
Net Cash Flows
Salvage Value
INITIAL INVESTMENT
Initial
It
.In
DEPRECIATION BASE
In the case of block of assets, the written down
value is calculated as follows:
The aggregate of the written down value of all
assets in the block at the beginning of the year
Plus the actual cost of any asset in the block
acquired during the year
Minus the proceeds from the sale of any asset in
the block during the year
Thus, in a replacement decision, the depreciation
base of a new asset will be equal to: Cost of new
equipment + Written down value of old
equipment Salvage value of old equipment
kg
k g
TVn =
NCFn ( 1 + g )
k- g
NCFn+1
k- g
15
SYLLABUS
Cash Flow Measurement:
Dependence and independence of
cash flows in evaluating projects,
Measures of risk and returns,
Inflation in capital budgeting, Real
vs. nominal discount rates, Bias in
cash flow estimates, Total risk for
multiple investment. Measuring
cash flow for acquisition. Use of
Excel for estimating cash flows &
decision making.
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
32
INFLATION
CASH FLOWS
DISCOUNT RATE
IF
IF
BOTH
/15
The
38
/15
/15
EXAMPLE:
ye 0
1
2
3
4
ar
Cas 300 300 300 300
h
1000 0
0
0
0
flo 0
The
w firms opportunity cost of capital,
which is market determined expressed
in nominal terms is 14%. Rate of
inflation is 7%
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
40
15
SYLLABUS
Cash Flow Measurement:
Dependence and independence of
cash flows in evaluating projects,
Measures of risk and returns,
Inflation in capital budgeting, Real
vs. nominal discount rates, Bias in
cash flow estimates, Total risk for
multiple investment. Measuring
cash flow for acquisition. Use of
Excel for estimating cash flows &
decision making.
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
42
P0
P0
P0
DEFINING
DEFINING RETURN
RETURN
Income received on an investment plus any
change in market price, usually expressed as
a percent of the beginning market price of
the investment.
Dt + (Pt - Pt-1 )
R=
Pt-1
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
RETURN
RETURN EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
The stock price for Stock A was Rs.10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at Rs.9.50 per share and
shareholders just received a Rs.1
dividend. What return was earned over
the past year?
RETURN
RETURN EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
The stock price for Stock A was Rs.10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at Rs.9.50 per share and
shareholders just received a Rs.1
dividend. What return was earned over
the past year?
DEFINING
DEFINING RISK
RISK
The variability of returns from
those that are expected.
What rate of return do you expect on
your investment (savings) this year?
What rate will you actually earn?
Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a
share of stock?
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
HOW
HOW TO
TO DETERMINE
DETERMINE THE
THE
EXPECTED
EXPECTED RETURN
RETURN AND
AND
STANDARD
STANDARD DEVIATION
DEVIATION
Stock BW
R i Pi
(Ri)(Pi)
-.15
-.03
.09
.21
.33
Sum
.10
.20
.40
.20
.10
1.00
-.015
-.006
.036
.042
.033
.090
The
expected
return, R,
for Stock
BW is .09
or 9%
/15
50
HOW
HOW TO
TO DETERMINE
DETERMINE THE
THE
EXPECTED
EXPECTED RETURN
RETURN AND
AND
STANDARD
STANDARD DEVIATION
DEVIATION
Stock BW
R i Pi
(Ri)(Pi)
-.15
.10
-.03
.20
.09
.40
.21
.20
.33
.10
Sum
1.00
(Ri - R )2(Pi)
-.015
.00576
-.006
.00288
.036
.00000
.042
.00288
.033
.00576
.090
.01728
DETERMINING
DETERMINING STANDARD
STANDARD
DEVIATION
DEVIATION (RISK
(RISK MEASURE)
MEASURE)
(
r
R
)
(
P
)
i
i
i=1
=
=
.01728
.1315 or 13.15%
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
It
/15
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION OF
BW
=.1315 / .09
= 1.46
54
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
67%
58%
49%
40%
31%
22%
13%
4%
-5%
-14%
-23%
-32%
-41%
-50%
RISK
RISK ATTITUDES
ATTITUDES
Certainty Equivalent (CE) is the amount of
cash someone would require with certainty
at a point in time to make the individual
indifferent between that certain amount and
an amount expected to be received with risk
at the same point in time.
RISK
RISK ATTITUDES
ATTITUDES
Certainty equivalent > Expected value
Risk Preference
Certainty equivalent = Expected value
Risk Indifference
Certainty equivalent < Expected value
Risk Aversion
Most individuals are Risk Averse.
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
TOTAL
TOTAL RISK
RISK =
= SYSTEMATIC
SYSTEMATIC
RISK
RISK +
+ UNSYSTEMATIC
UNSYSTEMATIC RISK
RISK
Total Risk = Systematic Risk +
Unsystematic Risk
Systematic Risk is the variability of return
on stocks or portfolios associated with
changes in return on the market as a
whole.
Unsystematic Risk is the variability of
return on stocks or portfolios not
explained by general market movements.
MBA & PGDM-Advanced
Capital Budgeting
It is avoidable
through diversification.
TOTAL
TOTAL RISK
RISK =
= SYSTEMATIC
SYSTEMATIC
RISK
RISK +
+ UNSYSTEMATIC
UNSYSTEMATIC RISK
RISK
Factors such as changes in nations
economy, tax reform by the Congress,
or a change in the world situation.
Unsystematic risk
Total
Risk
Systematic risk
TOTAL
TOTAL RISK
RISK =
= SYSTEMATIC
SYSTEMATIC
RISK
RISK +
+ UNSYSTEMATIC
UNSYSTEMATIC RISK
RISK
Factors unique to a particular company
or industry. For example, the death of a
key executive or loss of a governmental
defense contract.
Unsystematic risk
Total
Risk
Systematic risk
CAPITAL
CAPITAL ASSET
ASSET
PRICING
PRICING MODEL
MODEL (CAPM)
(CAPM)
CAPM is a model that describes the
relationship between risk and expected
(required) return; in this model, a securitys
expected (required) return is the risk-free rate
plus a premium based on the systematic risk
of the security.
CAPM
CAPM ASSUMPTIONS
ASSUMPTIONS
1. Capital markets are efficient.
2. Homogeneous investor expectations
over a given period.
3. Risk-free asset return is certain
(use short- to intermediate-term
Treasuries as a proxy).
4. Market portfolio contains only
systematic risk (use S&P 500 Index
similar as a proxy).
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
or
WHAT
WHAT IS
IS BETA?
BETA?
An index of systematic risk.
It measures the sensitivity of a stocks
returns to changes in returns on the market
portfolio.
The beta for a portfolio is simply a weighted
average of the individual stock betas in the
portfolio.
CHARACTERISTIC
CHARACTERISTIC LINES
LINES
DIFFERENT
DIFFERENT BETAS
BETAS
EXCESS RETURN
ON STOCK
AND
AND
Beta > 1
(aggressive)
Beta = 1
Each characteristic
line has a
different slope.
Beta < 1
(defensive)
EXCESS RETURN
ON MARKET PORTFOLIO
SECURITY
SECURITY MARKET
MARKET LINE
LINE
Rj = Rf + j(RM - Rf)
Rj is the required rate of return for stock
j,
Rf is the risk-free rate of return,
j is the beta of stock j (measures
systematic risk of stock j),
MBA & PGDM-Advanced
RM is the expected
returnCapital
forBudgeting
the market
SECURITY
SECURITY MARKET
MARKET LINE
LINE
Required Return
Rj = Rf + j(RM - Rf)
Risk
Premium
RM
Rf
Risk-free
Return
M = 1.0
Systematic
Risk (Beta)Capital Budgeting
MBA & PGDM-Advanced
SECURITY
SECURITY MARKET
MARKET LINE
LINE
Obtaining
Adjusted
Betas
Beta
DETERMINATION
DETERMINATION OF
OF THE
THE
REQUIRED
REQUIRED RATE
RATE OF
OF RETURN
RETURN
BWS
BWS REQUIRED
REQUIRED RATE
RATE
OF
OF RETURN
RETURN
DETERMINATION
DETERMINATION OF
OF THE
THE
INTRINSIC
INTRINSIC VALUE
VALUE OF
OF BW
BW
Lisa Miller at BW is also attempting to
determine the intrinsic value of the stock.
She is using the constant growth model.
Lisa estimates that the dividend next
period will be Rs.0.50 and that BW will
grow at a constant rate of 5.8%. The
stock is currently selling for Rs.15.
DETERMINATION
DETERMINATION OF
OF THE
THE
INTRINSIC
INTRINSIC VALUE
VALUE OF
OF BW
BW
Intrinsic
Value
Rs.0.50
=
10.8% - 5.8%
= Rs.10
SECURITY
SECURITY MARKET
MARKET LINE
LINE
Required Return
Stock X (Underpriced)
Direction of
Movement
Rf
Direction of
Movement
Stock Y (Overpriced)
Systematic Risk (Beta)
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
DETERMINATION
DETERMINATION OF
OF THE
THE
REQUIRED
REQUIRED RATE
RATE OF
OF RETURN
RETURN
Small-firm Effect
Price / Earnings Effect
January Effect
These anomalies have
presented serious challenges to
the CAPM theory.
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
RISK
ADJUSTING
CONVERTING
PROBABILITY
ANALYSIS.
RATE COMPONENTS
INCLUDE:
TIME
PREFERENCE
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
RISK PREMIUM
THE
INCREASING
/15
Risk
k=kf + kr
under CAPM, the risk premium is the
difference between the market rate of
return and the risk free rate multiplied
by the beta of the project
MBA & PGDM-Advanced Capital Budgeting
78