Population and Development

Discussion point
What is the pattern of population growth in the world?
How does population growth stimulate the development?
Briefly explain in terms of Keynes and Lewis model.
What are the causes of population growth? Will population
continue to increase in the world?
What are the consequences of increasing life expectancy and
aging in the developing world?
Why will the population of underdeveloped countries be
higher in 2050? Why will it decrease in Europe and other
developed countries?
What are the demographic characteristics of Bangladesh?
Case studies: Causes of population growth in Bangladesh
and
Population as asset or liability in Bangladesh

Population Growth Was Very Slow in the

Earlier Years of
Human Existence, but Has Accelerated in
the Past 250 Years

Source: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections; and UN

Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).

Stages of Demographic Transition

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Birth rate
Natural
increase

Death rate

Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

WORLD POPULATION OUTLOOK 1950-2050

Total population 2010 is 6.90 billion and for 2050 will reach
9.08 billion
In spite of higher population for the future, the growth rate
of the population is expected to fall due to the decline in
fertility rate and the toll taken by the HIV/AIDS pandemic
in some countries.
However, the death rate declined and the causes of death
changed towards Cancer and Cardiovascular diseases.
Fertility rate decline family planning
Increasing population but decrease in average annual
growth rate. e.g. 1.1% in 2009, but 0.43% to 0% in 2050

Global Population Growth

A Developing Country
Phenomenon

Developing countries

Developed countries

Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision,
medium variant.
6

No population explosion after 2050!!

Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Billions

Billions
10

80

60

40

20

0
2075

2100

2125

Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)

2150

Population size

100

Annual Increments

Population size

Annual increments

Millions

Population growth and Development

Population Growth Stimulates

Development
Keynes and Lewis content population growth
as stimulating development through

Creation of Effective Demand

Supply of

labour

at a chipper wage

th and 19
th Centuries rapid population
During 18
growth in developed world contributed to steady

economic growth predicted by Keyes and Lewis

POPULATION OUTLOOK BY REGION

1950-2050
World population growth will be concentrated in
developing countries for the foreseeable future
Population for Asia, Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, Middle
East, North America and South America will increase
substantially
Population for European countries and Former Soviet
Union tends to fall for the foreseeable future
Not much different for the population for Oceania and
Baltic region

Europe is the only world region projected to decline

in population by 2050.
Millions

Ageing and related problem

The world's elderly population (60 +) is the fastest
growing age group.
Population ageing is a global phenomenon that is
now occurring fastest in low and middle-income
countries.
By 2050 about 80% of the elderly will be living in
developing countries
With the increase in the life expectancy of the
world population ageing is now a global issue.
Elder abuse is on the increase as the social
dynamics change.
physical,
psychological,
emotional,
financial due to neglect.

Ageing and related problem

Impacts of an Ageing population:
-Increase in the dependency ratio
-Increase government spending on health care and pensions
-Fall in productivity and growth of the country
-Shortage of labor force
-Changing sectors within the economy

Government responses to an ageing population:

-Raise the retirement age
-Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pension
and health care
-Increase tax to pay for pension cost.

Life expectancy trends and Aging

Expectation of life at birth (years)

90
80
More developed

70
World

60

Less developed

50

Least developed

40
30
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040 2050

Period
Source: Population division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, United States Secretariat
(2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Population of Bangladesh, Growth Rate per Annum

and Density Per Sq. Km. Area, 1700- 2011
Year

1700
1750
1770
1800
1850
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1974
1981
1991
2001
Sources:
2011

Populatio
n
(in
million)

M.

17
19
15
17
20
25
27
29
32
33
36
42
44
55
76
90
111
131
Obaidullah,
142

n.d.;

Growth rate

0.20
-1.20
0.40
0.30
0.90
0.80
0.69
0.94
0.60
0.74
1.70
0.50
2.26
2.48
2.32
2.17
1.54
Bangladesh
1.34

Density per Sq.

Km.

Bureau of

196
214
225
241
285
299
374
518
609
755
876
936
15
Statistics,
1994
964

The historical trend of population

growth rate suggests that the
estimated population of 17 million in
1700 took 230 years to double in
1931.
The second doubling took only 43
years, i.e., the population of 1931
doubled its size in 1974.
Third doubling occurred in just about

Most Populous Countries with Density,

2010 2010 & 2050
2050
Country

China
India
United
States
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Banglades
h
Russia
Japan

Populatio Population
n Density/Sq.
(millions)
Km.

Country

Populati
on
(millions
)
1,748
1,437
423

1,338
1,189
310

140
362
32

India
China
United States

235
193
185
158
142

124
23
232

Pakistan
Nigeria
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Brazil

335
326
309
226
215

142
127

8
337

Ethiopia
Congo. Demo.
Rep.

174
166

171

964

Source: PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet,

Percentage Distribution of the Population by Broad

Age Groups and Dependency Ratio, 1911-2005
Year

Broad Age Groups

Dependenc
y Ratio

0-14 Yrs.

15-59 Yrs.

60+ Yrs.

1911

42.3

53.3

4.4

88

1921

42.3

53.6

4.1

S7

1931

41.9

54.9

3.2

82

1941

41.4

55.1

3.5

S2

1951

42.2

53.5

4.4

87

1961

46.0

48.8

5.2

105

1974

48.0

46.3

5.7

116

1981

46.7

47.8

5.5

109

1991

45.1

49.5

5.4

102

2001

39.4

54.9

5.7

76

2005

37.9

55.9

6.2

79

18

Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1

Ageing Situation in Bangladesh

Year Total Population
(in million)

Population
(60+)

% of
the
total

2001

130.02

7.97

6.0

2006

141.80

8.49

6.1

2011

151.41

9.77

6.5

2016

160.99

11.32

7.0

2021

171.71

14.10

8.2

2026

182.24

18.07

9.9

2031

191.61

22.15

11.6

2036

199.52

27.34

13.7

2041

206.46

31.89

15.4

2046

212.85

36.93

17.4

2051

218.64

44.10

20.2

Declining Fertility
Year, Source

TFR

1960-62, NIS
1963-65, NIS
1966-68, NIS
1975, BFS
1983, CPS
1985, CPS
1989, CPS
1991, CPS
1993-1994, BDHS
1996-1997, BDHS
1999-2000, BDHS
2004, BDHS
2007, BDHS
2010, BMMS

7.6
7.0
6.0
6.3
4.94
4.61
4.88
4.26
3.40
3.30
3.30
3.00
2.70
2.5

Trends in total fertility rate

Demographic Profile of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated country in the
world, 1,237.51 persons per square kilometer. (Based on the CIA World
Fact Book 2012 )

Male and female ratio is 104: 100

Rural population higher than urban population (73:37)
Total civilian labor force was about 76 million, About 45
percent labor force is engaged in agricultural activities
Unemployment rate increased to 5.1 per cent in 2009 that does
not reflect severity, except looking the under-employment rate of
28.7 per cent. (Total 33.8 percent)
Per capita GNI in Bangladesh :1,190 USD (Source: BBS, 2013-14)
Real GDP growth rate 6.12% (Source: BBS, 2013-14)

Demographics of Bangladesh
Current Population:

161,083,804 (CIA World Fact Book 2013,

July 2012 estimate )

Population growth
rate:

1.579% (2012 est.)

Birth rate:

22.53 births/1,000 population (2012

est.)

Death rate:

5.71 deaths/1,000 population (July

2012 est.)

Life expectancy:

70.06 years (2013 est.)

male:

68.21 years

female:

71.98 years (2012 est.)

Fertility rate:

2.55 children born/woman (2012

est.)

Infant mortality rate:

48.99 deaths/1,000 live births

Growth Rate of Urban Population 1901-2008

Census
Year

Population
(million)

Percent

Average
Annual
Growth
Rate

1901

.70

2.43

1911

.81

2.55

1.39

1921

.88

2.64

0.85

1931

1.07

3.02

2.00

1941

1.54

3.66

3.59

1951

1.82

4.33

1.69

1961

2.64

5.19

3.75

1974

6.27

8.78

6.62

1981

13.23

15.18

10.63

1991

22.46

20.15

5.43

2001

28.61

23.10

3.15

2008

36.31

25.10

3.37

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2009.

Dhaka Compared to Other Urban

Agglomerations in 2010 and 2025
Rank

Agglomeration

2010
Population
(million)

Rank

Agglomeration

2025
Population
(million)

1.

Tokyo

36.7

1.

Tokyo

37.1

2.

Delhi

22.2

2.

Delhi

28.6

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Mexico City
New York
Shanghai
Kolkata
Dhaka
Karachi

20.3
20.0
19.5
19.4
16.6
15.6
15.0
13.1

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Mumbai
Sao Paulo
Dhaka
Mexico City
New York
Kolkata
Shanghai
Karachi

25.8
21.7
20.9
20.7
20.6
20.1
20.0
18.7