Predicting Academic Performance of An

Elementary School using Multiple

Regression

Submitted By,
Aseem Datta
Eshan Sinha
Rajesh Ghosal
Prasanna Lakshmi

AGENDA
Background
Objective
Model
Important Parameters
Inferences from the Model
Appendix

Background

Predicting academic performance of an elementary

school using attributes like class size, enrollment,
poverty, parent education, student performance,
teachers credentials from 400 elementary schools
from the California Department of Education's API
2000 dataset

Objective
The main objective for this study is to find the
important factors that influence and significantly
contribute in measuring the performance of the
elementary school in California state

Model
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Label

DF

Paramet Standar tValue Pr>|t| Variance

er
d
Estimate Error
Inflation

Intercept

Intercept

ell

mobility

english language
learners
pct 1st year in school

acs_k3

avg class size k-3

563.439 49.8428 11.3 <.0001

0
51
5
0.17562 -15.82 <.0001 1.66602
2.77842
0.47464 -5.2 <.0001 1.10217
2.46762
10.6312 2.50946 4.24 <.0001 1.02771

col_grad

parent college grad

1.20298 0.24159

4.98

<.0001 1.3863

grad_sch

parent grad school

2.8468 0.34247

8.31

<.0001 1.51113

emer

pct emer credential

-2.7947 0.33022 -8.46 <.0001 1.31735

Important Variables and Inferences

As we can see from the developed model , six

variables explains the variability in the academic

performance of any elementary school in California
Variable 1: English Language Learners - This variable

has an negative impact on API 2000 which logically

explains us the situation in California that there more
immigrants who are yet to learn English .If ELL
increases by 1 then API2000 decreases by 2.778

Important Variables and Inferences

Variable 2: Mobility- This variable also has negative impact
in academic performance which logically explains that if
students drop out rate increases then the performance
goes done. The drop out affects the morale of a classroom
Variable 3: ACS-K3- This variable which has a positive
impact on academic performance clearly explains that
lesser the class size better the academic performance is
.So this is the important factor which is helping us to
improve the performance

Important Variables and Inferences

Variable 4:Coll Grad - This variable has a positive impact on the
academic performance of school . This variable explains us that
the parents who have done graduation help their kids to study
Variable 5:Grad School- Since graduated parents play a major
role in their kids academics this variable also influences the
academic performance of a school in a positive way
Variable 6:Emer- This variable has a negative impact which
explains that part time teachers are less effective than full time
because they may also have other sources of income except
teaching

Important Variables and Inferences

So, maintaining average class size as K-3,decreasing
part time teachers and taking care of the students drop out
in 1st year would help in increasing the academic
performance of the schools in California
At the same time creating awareness about parents
getting graduated would influence their kids may result in
increased academic performance of their kids and school
in a long run

Appendix
Outliers and Missing Values were treated first
Then multiple regression was performed with a check to
VIF and interdependencies. Variables with VIFs less than
1.7 were considered because those are the variables
which are free from multi collinearity
After multi collinearity check the shortlisted variables were
check for their individual significances. Significant
variables are finalized for the study

Appendix
Checks for hetero scedasticity and normality were
performed to know whether the model is valid and reliable
Mean absolute percentage error was calculated whose
value should be ideally around 10%.Our models MAPE
was 8.677%
R square value for predicting academic performance of
school using finalized variables was 77.82%

THANK YOU