Pre Courses

MBA ITB

Business Analysis
Utomo Sarjono Putro
School of Business and Management
ITB
1

UTOMO
SARJONO
PUTRO

Prof.Dr.Ir. UtomoSarjonoPutro, M.Eng.

Received bachelor degree from undergraduate
study program, Industrial Engineering Department
of Engineering ITB on 1992, then on 1995, he
studied Master and Doctoral degree at
Department of Value and Decision Science, Tokyo
Institute of Technology, Japan, and obtained Doctor
on 2001 in decision science.
He published papers in several international
journals, such as IEEE Transaction on Systems,
Man, and Cybernetics, System Analysis Modeling
Simulation, and Systems Research and Behavioral
Science, and also several chapters in Books
published by Springers.
His research interests include decision science,
system modelling for policy development,
confrontation analysis, negotiation, service
science and agent based modelling and
simulation.
In 2012-2014, he was active as an expert in
Presidents Delivery Unit for Development
Monitoring and Oversight (UKP4).
Currently, he is a Secretary of Indonesian National
Member Organization in IIASA (International
Institute of Applied System Analysis), and
Secretary of INCASA (Indonesian National
2
Committee of Applied System Analysis).

Agenda

08:00-09:30
Pre Course: Business Analysis (Utomo Sarjono Putro)
Common mistakes on MBA Thesis

09:30-10:00
Break
10:00-11:30
Basic Methods for Business Analysis (Pri Harmawan)
Short introduction about some methods in Business Analysis and
examples

11:30-13:00
Break
13:00-14:30
How to overcome The Mistakes (Manahan Siallagan)
One example of MBA thesis which describe the mistakes and how to
overcome the mistakes

14:30-15:00
Break
15:00-16:30
Practices
The students asked to construct their understanding about how to
overcome the mistakes by using a case form MBA thesis
Discussion

What is Business Analysis

Wikipedia
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_analysis):

Business analysis is a research discipline of

identifying business needs and determining
solutions to business problems.
The person who carries out this task is called
a business analyst or BA.

Business Analysis is Problem

Solving

Problem

Solution

Analysis

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Hypothesis

Facts

Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis
Can not differentiate problems/issues, root cause and solution.

Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis
Can not differentiate problems/issues, root cause and solution.

Problem
What is a problem?
A problem is the visible effect of a cause
that resides somewhere in the past.

How to solve a problem?

We must relate the effect we observe to
its exact cause. Only then can we be
sure of taking appropriate corrective
action-action that can correct the
problem and keep it from recurring.
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The Structure of a Problem

A performance standard is achieved when all conditions
required for acceptable performance are operating as
they should.

Sometimes
conditions
improve,
positive
changes
occur, but
unexpected
decline occur.
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EXAMPLE: THE BANK IN

HAWTHORNE
10

The Bank in Hawthorne (1)

A major bank in California has a number of branches in the Los

Angeles area. The operating results of all branches are reviewed
monthly by the Executive Committee. At a July review, the
Hawthorne branch showed a volume of transactions slightly below
plan. All the other branches were right on target or above.

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The Bank in Hawthorne (2)

In August the Hawthorne branch slipped a little further, in September even
more. In October the news was worse yet. Members of the Executive
Committee began an investigation. One vice president suggested exploration
of the subject of change, saying he had already given it some thought and
pointing out that when the decline in transactions was observed the new
branch manager had been in his position for about two months. "Look, he
represents a change all right. He came in just before the branch started to
slip. I thought we were making a mistake then and I'm sure of it now."

August October
Target
transaction

Other Branches

Hawthorne branch
New branch manager

July September

12

The Bank in Hawthorne (3)

The committee went on to consider- who might take
over that position if the bank let the new manager go.
After long discussion the, chairman suggested that they
might be jumping to cause on the basis of a single fact.
He wanted the Committee to consider the decline in
terms of an informal specification-to discuss the
Identity, Location, Timing, and Magnitude of the
decline. He wasn't taking anything away from the vice
president's assessment. He just wanted to make sure
the situation was investigated thoroughly and
objectively before action was taken that would
seriously affect the branch manager's career.

13

The Bank in Hawthorne (4)

Despite some disagreement they began an objective
analysis. In the dimension of Location, the Committee
named the Hawthorne branch as the IS. It was in
Hawthorne alone that the decline was observed. All other
branches represented the IS NOT. The question
"What is distinctive about the Hawthorne branch
when compared with all other branches?" led to
discussion of its proximity to International Airport and the
factories of North American Aviation and Douglas Aircraft.
"Wait a minute," someone said. "North American has been
stretching out work on the B-70 bomber and laying off
people for some time. And Douglas is transferring a lot of
its work from Hawthorne to Long Beach. . . ."
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The Bank in Hawthorne (5)

Specifiyng
IS
IS NOT
What is dictinctive about
question
IDENTITY WHAT is the
decline
the other
transactio malfunction
malfunction/
n
s
Problem?
LOCATIO WHERE is the
IS
COULD BE
Howthorne branch is
N (where
obeserve but IS NOT
located near to
malfunction
we
at
observed at International Airport
observed
observe (geographically)? Hawthorne
other
and the factories of
it)
branch
branches
North American
Aviation and Douglas
Aircraft
TIMING WHEN was the IS occur
COULD BE
North American has
(when it malfunction first
two
but IS NOT been laying off their
occurs)
months
observed employee. And Douglas
observed?
ago
before two is transferring a lot of
months ago
its work from
to Long
Do you agree that the cause is the change of theHawthorne
new branch
manager?
Beach
15

An Example (1)
An analyst at XYZ bank observed that non-performing
loans (NPL) in XYZ Bank was slightly higher than the
average NPL of all banks nationwide.
In 2010 the nationwide NPL is 3.54% while the NPL in Bank
XYZ is 4.3%.
He suspects that the XYZ bank is not able to adapt in order
to recover from the economic crisis in 2008. The average
NPL in 2008 was 3.32% while the NPL in XYZ bank is 4.9%.
Although the maximum limit set by the NPL Central Bank is
5%, but since XYZs NPL is higher than the national
average NPL the analysts suspect that the Internal Rating
System (IRS) is currently implemented at XYZ Bank needs
to be changed.
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An Example (2)
The ideal NPL is 0%
2008
Average NPL

2010
XYZs deviation Averag
es
deviati
on

XYZs NPL

He suspects that the cause is: XYZ bank is not able

to adapt in order to recover from the economic crisis in 2008
Was the conclusion correctly taken?

Assuming that the cause is correct, then how should the conclusion derived?
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Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis

Can not differentiate

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Which Problem?

Situation
Analysis

Problem Analysis

Decision Analysis

Potential Problem Analysis

PAST
PRESENT
FUTURE
What is the faults? How to correct the faults?
How to Prevent Future Faults?

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20

Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis

Unclear definition of

What will you achieve by solving the problem?

21

Define Objective: Transformation Process

D
e
c
i
s
i
o
n

Input
(some entity)

Criteria?

Transformation
Process

Output
(that entity in
a transformed state)

Example : a public library

A local
population
A local need for information
and entertainment from books,
records, etc.
Books and other materials on
the shelves

That population better informed

That need met

Books and other materials out

in the local community
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Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis

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Decision Analysis: MCDM

Criteria

ALTERNATIVES

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Decision Analysis:
Mathematical Models

Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition,
Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

Information about consequences: Model Simulation,

Model Analysis
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Mathematical Model: Linier Programming

26

Mistakes often happened in MBA

Students thesis

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Types of Problem

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Grouping Problem Contexts

Problem contexts can be grouped according to two dimensions:

Simple

Unitary

Complex

Pluralist

Coercive
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Grouping problem contexts

Simple

Purposive
Unitary

Conflict

Purposeful

Plural

Coercive

Closed System
(Finding the best
solution)

Complexity

Improving
Goal Seeking

Exploring
Purposes

Ensuring
Fairness

Open System
(How we can
adapt/learn the
Complex situation)
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Grouping Systems Methodologies based on

their assumptions about problem contexts
Unitary

Pluralist

S-U

S-P

Statistic
Math

Simple

Modelling
Root cause Analysis
Operations Research
Systems Analysis
Systems
Systems

Complex

Engineering

Dynamic

C-U

Coercive

S-C

SAST

CSH (Critical
(strategic
assumptions surfacing System Heuristics)
and testing)
Confrontation
FGD/BrainStorming Analysis
AHP/MCDM
Negosiasi
PSM

C-P

IP (Interactive
(Viable
System Diagnosis) Planning)
Learning
SSM (Soft Systems
Organization
Methodology)
ABM

C-C

VSD

?
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Thank

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