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Chapter 7
Estimation: Single Population
Ch. 7-1
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able
to:
Ch. 7-2
Confidence Intervals
Contents of this chapter:
Confidence Intervals for the Population
Mean,
Ch. 7-3
7.1
Definitions
An estimator of a population parameter is
Ch. 7-4
Lower
Confidence
Limit
Point Estimate
Upper
Confidence
Limit
Width of
confidence interval
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-5
Point Estimates
We can estimate a
Population Parameter
with a Sample
Statistic
(a Point Estimate)
Mean
Proportion
Ch. 7-6
Unbiasedness
E( )
Examples:
The sample mean
x is an unbiased estimator of
The sample variance s2 is an unbiased estimator of 2
The sample proportion
p is an unbiased estimator of P
Ch. 7-7
Unbiasedness
(continued)
Ch. 7-8
Bias
be an estimator of
Let
The bias in is defined as the difference
between its mean and
Bias( ) E( )
Ch. 7-9
1 is said to be more efficient than 2 if Var( 1 ) Var( 2 )
Relative Efficiency
Var( 2 )
Var( )
1
Ch. 7-10
7.2
Confidence Intervals
Ch. 7-11
Ch. 7-12
Ch. 7-13
Estimation Process
Random Sample
Population
(mean, , is
unknown)
Mean
X = 50
I am 95%
confident that
is between
40 & 60.
Sample
Ch. 7-14
Ch. 7-15
General Formula
Ch. 7-16
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population
Mean
2 Known
Population
Proportion
Population
Variance
2 Unknown
Ch. 7-17
7.2
Assumptions
x z /2
x z /2
n
n
Ch. 7-18
Margin of Error
x z /2
x z /2
n
n
Ch. 7-19
Ch. 7-20
1 .95
.025
2
Z units:
X units:
.025
2
z = -1.96
Lower
Confidence
Limit
0
Point Estimate
z = 1.96
Upper
Confidence
Limit
Ch. 7-21
Confidence
Coefficient,
Z/2 value
.80
.90
.95
.98
.99
.998
.999
1.28
1.645
1.96
2.33
2.58
3.08
3.27
80%
90%
95%
98%
99%
99.8%
99.9%
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-22
/2
Intervals
extend from
/2
x1
LCL x z
n
x2
to
UCL x z
n
Confidence Intervals
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
100(1-)%
of intervals
constructed
contain ;
100()% do
not.
Ch. 7-23
Example
Ch. 7-24
Example
(continued)
Solution:
x z
n
2.20 1.96 (.35/ 11)
2.20 .2068
1.9932 2.4068
Ch. 7-25
Interpretation
Ch. 7-26
7.3
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population
Mean
2 Known
Population
Proportion
Population
Variance
2 Unknown
Ch. 7-27
Students t Distribution
x
t
s/ n
follows the Students t distribution with (n - 1) degrees
of freedom
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-28
Ch. 7-29
Assumptions
x t n-1,/2
S
S
x t n-1,/2
n
n
where tn-1,/2 is the critical value of the t distribution with n-1 d.f. and an
area of /2 in each tail:
P(t n1 t n1,/2 ) /2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-30
Margin of Error
x t n-1,/2
S
S
x t n-1,/2
n
n
x ME
ME t n-1,/2
Ch. 7-31
Students t Distribution
d.f. = n - 1
Ch. 7-32
Students t Distribution
Note: t
Z as n increases
Standard
Normal
(t with df = )
t (df = 13)
t-distributions are bellshaped and symmetric, but
have fatter tails than the
normal
t (df = 5)
0
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t
Ch. 7-33
Students t Table
Upper Tail Area
df
.10
.05
.025
Let: n = 3
df = n - 1 = 2
= .10
/2 =.05
2.920 t
Ch. 7-34
t distribution values
With comparison to the Z value
Confidence
t
Level
(10 d.f.)
t
(20 d.f.)
t
(30 d.f.)
Z
____
.80
1.372
1.325
1.310
1.282
.90
1.812
1.725
1.697
1.645
.95
2.228
2.086
2.042
1.960
.99
3.169
2.845
2.750
2.576
Note: t
Z as n increases
Ch. 7-35
Example
A random sample of n = 25 has x = 50 and
s = 8. Form a 95% confidence interval for
S
S
x t n-1,/2
x t n-1,/2
n
n
8
8
50 (2.0639)
50 (2.0639)
25
25
46.698 53.302
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-36
7.4
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population
Mean
2 Known
Population
Proportion
Population
Variance
2 Unknown
Ch. 7-37
Ch. 7-38
P(1 P)
P
n
p (1 p )
n
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-39
p z /2
(1 p )
p (1 p )
p
P p z /2
n
n
where
z/2 is the standard normal value for the level of confidence desired
p is the sample proportion
n is the sample size
nP(1P) > 5
Ch. 7-40
Example
Ch. 7-41
Example
(continued)
p z /2
(1 p )
p (1 p )
p
P p z /2
n
n
25
.25(.75)
25
.25(.75)
1.96
P
1.96
100
100
100
100
0.1651 P 0.3349
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-42
Interpretation
Ch. 7-43
7.5
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population
Mean
2 Known
Population
Proportion
Population
Variance
2 Unknown
Ch. 7-44
Ch. 8-45
2
n 1
(n 1)s
Where the chi-square value n1, denotes the number for which
P( n21 n21, )
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 8-46
1)s
2
2
2
n1, /2
n1, 1 - /2
Ch. 8-47
Example
You are testing the speed of a batch of computer
processors. You collect the following data (in Mhz):
Sample size
Sample mean
Sample std dev
17
3004
74
Ch. 8-48
probability
/2 = .025
probability
/2 = .025
216
= 6.91
216 = 28.85
216
Ch. 8-49
1)s
2
2
2
n1, /2
n1, 1 - /2
2
(17 1)(74)2
(17
1)(74)
2
28.85
6.91
3037 2 12683
Converting to standard deviation, we are 95%
confident that the population standard deviation of
CPU speed is between 55.1 and 112.6 Mhz
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 8-50
7.6
Finite Populations
Ch. 7-51
Finite Population
Correction Factor
Nn
N 1
Ch.17-52
1 n
x xi
n i1
Ch.17-53
Nn
N 1
x x t n-1,/2
x
x - t n-1,/2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Ch. 7-54
Ch.17-55
N x N
n N -1
Nx t n-1,/2N x N Nx t n-1,/2N x
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Ch.17-56
Ch.17-57
Example Solution
N 1000, n 80,
x 87.6,
s 22.3
2
2
s
(N
n)
2 (22.3) 920
N N
(1000)
5724559.6
n N -1
80 999
N x 5724559.6 2392.6
2
2
x
Ch.17-58
Estimating the
Population Proportion
Ch.17-59
(1- p ) N n
p
n N 1
2
p
p P p z /2
p
p - z /2
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Ch. 7-60
Chapter Summary
Ch. 7-61
Chapter Summary
(continued)
Ch. 7-62