MYZ2 Mon 1a Intro KuliahI Makro Chap 1

Introduction to Macroeconomics:
A School of Thought and An

Empirical Review
Prepared By
Prof. Dr. H.M.Yunus Zain, M.A.
and
Prof. Dr. Hj. Rahmatia Yunus, M.A.
(DOSEN TETAP FE-PPS UNHAS)
2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 1
Books/References:
- Oliver Blanchard, (2003),Macroeconomics, Third edition,
International edition (ch. 1-5; 6 & 8-13)

- Karl Case and Ray Fair (2002), Principles of Economics,
6th (ed.), New York: Prentice Hall Business Publishing (ch.13)
- Other available books of Macroeconomics!
Lecture notes:
Lectures/Classes:
Print the notes Page and take it with you to the class.
Exercises: Each lecture or week, must be prepared in
advance
Final mark:
For this special class (S3-Program), students might

choose a 100% Final exam!
Course FOCUS: Keynesian IS-LM MODEL (SHORT-RUN),
Classical (New) AS-AD Approach (MEDIUM RUN) AND
LONG RUN ANALYSIS
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 2
This course is an introductory survey of economics with

main focus on macroeconomics.
At the end of the
MACROECONOMICS course, you should be able to:
critically read and discuss an article on economics in any

serious media such as KOMPAS, REPUBLIKA, any Indonesian
(formal) Economics Journals, the Wall Street Journal, New
York Times, or Business Week, Forbes, or The Economist.
understand and express in normal language the jargon and
reasoning of an economic statement or argument.
distinguish fallacious, plausible, and unknowable assertions
about the economy.
understand INDICATORS and Measurement of

economic variables, IS-LM MODEL, AS-AD
APPROACH as well as the directions or the effects
of
economic
policies
(ESPECIALLY
for
macroeconomic policies)
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 3
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 4
TEORI MIKRO EKONOMI DAN MAKRO EKONOMI
PASAR OUTPUT.
MASYARAKAT
MAX. UTILITY
PRODUSEN
MAX. PROFIT
PASAR INPUT
SEKTOR RIIL : MIKRO GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (NEO KLASIK)
FONDAS I MIKRO
KEYNES
NEW KEYNESIAN
NEW CLASSICAL
ECONOMICS (RE)
MAKRO EKONOMI
AD = AS
IS = LM
PASAR INPUT TIDAK CLEAR

W/P
SL
W/PC
EFEKTIF DEMAND
Y = C + I + G + (X - M )
DL = MPL
LK
LC
L
DL = f (); : KEBIJAKAN FISKAL VS MONETER
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 5
STRUKTUR
PDB
APBN
BOP
SEKTORAL:
PERTUMBUHAN
Y= A K/L
Pengeluaran dan Penerimaan

Pemerintah
U
AD=PDB=C+I+G+(X-M)
KEBIJAKSANAAN FISKAL
CURRENT ACCOUNT (CA)

CAPITAL ACCOUNT (KA)
RESERVE
F. DEBT, DSR
MS=MD
KEBIJAKAN MONETER
PERTUMBUHAN vs PEMERTAAN
INFLASI vs K. KERJA
TINGKAT BUNGA & UPAH
KURS
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 6
I. ANALISIS LAJU PERTUMBUHAN PDB ATAU PDRB

1.1 SISI PRODUKSI
A. KONRIBUSI SEK
B. PERKEMBANGAN X-M
KORELASI SEK. RIL & JASA
II. TINJAUAN UMUM
1.2. SISI PNGELUARAN

POS PENGELUARAN &
PNYEBABNYA
- DOMESTIK:
RT, PEMERINTAH &
INVESTASI
- FOREIGN (PARTNER DAGANG)
ASPEK PERMINTAAN EKSPOR
- ANALISIS BOP
2.1. EKSPANSI MONTER: A) POSISI KRDIT PERBANKAN KEELURUHAN (% KE SUBSEKTOR TERTENTU)

B) POSISI KREDIT MENURUT KELOMPOK BANK
C) PKEMBANGAN & ARAH KRDIT INVESTASI
KAITANNYA DENGAN ISTRUMENT KEBIJAKSANAAN MONETER
2.2. PERHIMPUNAN DANA PERBANKAN
2.3. TINGKAT INFLASI (DOMINASI KELOMPOK HARGA BARANG?)
.COST PUSH
DEMAND PULL
PRILAKU DEMNAD FOR MONEY: SPEKULASI?
III. ANALISIS PROSPEK PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA (PROYEKSI YANG ADA) :

ASIA, AMERIKA DAN EROPA ?
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 7
BIGBANG VS GRADUAL APPROACH

SEQUENCE, TIMING, CONTENT & IMPLEMENTATION
SI TAP NO. 16/MPR/98- dan seterusnya sampai pada

era SBY_JK ?
SOLUSI?
POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ADJUSTMENT:

A. ORTHODOX VIEW (KOREKSI MF)
B. NEO-ORTHODOX (KOREKSI S-D)
C. NPE (GOVT ENDOGENOUS)
4 TIPE POLICY:
1) SHORT TERM STABILIZATION
2) STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT
3) EXPANDING PRODUCTION CAPACITY
(SAVING & INVETMENT MELALUI:
REF. KEUANGAN & PERPAJAKAN
REF. INVESTASI
PRIVITISASI)
4) Legalisasi & Lingkunagn Institusi
(pro. Right & aturan Kompetisi)
Bagaimana di Indonesia?
Kurs 1971, 78, 83, 86 & 88
88 finacial reform & interest group
Dari Tim 5 (UI)

Pelita I - IV
Kebijaksanaan Teknologi?
Masalah Struktur Industri

Utang LN
Regim Devisa
Pujian WB & IMF
lalu KRISIS and reform lagi?
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 8
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 9
The state & results of Macroeconomics
Two classic welfare theorem

-market hold, CE is Pareto
efficient
-market failure, redistribution
initial endowment, the CE is also
Pareto optimal
Microeconomics
results: partial &
GE:
-Consumers efficiency
MRSij= relatif price ij
-Porduction efficiency
MRTSij= relative factor
price ij
Source of Market failure & government intervention -Exchange efficiency
(market efficiency)
Field development:
-Public Economics (Choice)
-New Political Economy
-Regional economics
-HRE: Labor Ec.; Health Ec
-others subjects
Macroeconomics, 3/e
-Development Economics
-International economics
-monetary economics
-others subjects
Four Functional
Management?
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 10
State of the arts and results of

Social-political Theory (B)
New political Economy Politik ekonomi?

Ekonomi politik
Why (event) What/how (before and
after the fact):
-process
-institutional setting
science
Mathematics & Philosophy: an ARTS
State of the arts and results of

Economic Theory (A)
Facts:
empirical
questions
What/how (before the

fact):
-behavioral foundation
-Rational (self-interest?)
New (?) Paradigm

Macroeconomics, 3/e
A or B; or both
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 11
Mainstream economics:
-more deductive
-abstraction: more use mathematical
exposition especially in theoretical work
-developed on both applied and
theoretical work to explain the stylized
fact
How about the type of Economist?
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 12
Indicators of economic health

Growth
Unemployment rate
Inflation
How can we explain the behaviour of

these variables?
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 13
C H AP TE R
Prepared by:
M. Yunus Zain & Rahmatia Yunus
(FE-UNHAS)
1-1
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 15
Table 1-1
Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the United

States, 1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)
1992-2000
(average)
2000
2001
2002
(forecast)
Output growth rate
3.5
3.7
4.1
1.1
0.7
Unemployment rate
6.1
5.4
4.0
4.8
6.2
Inflation rate
5.1
1.7
2.3
2.1
1.2
Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment

rate: average over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of
the price level.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 16
The Federal Funds

Rate, June 2000 to
December 2001
Weekly Average
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 17
Rate of Growth of
Output per Worker in
the United States
Since 1950
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 18
1-2
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 19
The European
Union, 2000
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 20
Table 1-2
Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the

European Union, 1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)
1992-2000
(average)
2002
2000
2001
Output growth rate
3.1
2.1
3.3
1.7
1.5
Unemployment rate
6.5
9.9
8.1
7.8
8.1
Inflation rate
5.6
1.7
1.5
2.5
2.2
Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment rate: average
over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of the price level.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 21
Source: Eurostat
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 22
Source: Eurostat
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 23
Source: Eurostat
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 24
High unemployment
A common currency
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 25
Unemployment
Rates: Europe
Versus the United
States, 1960-2000
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 26
Think for yourself

Although there is no agreement on the
causes of unemployment, some of the
concerns are:
Labor market rigidities
A wage explosion in the 1970s,
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 27
A common currency can:

Reduce uncertainties associated with the
relative price of currencies.
Contribute to economic growth,
growth especially
when accompanied by the removal of other
obstacles to trade between European
countries.
Create difficulties for some countries
associated with the move to a common
monetary policy.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 28
1-3
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 29
Table 1-3
Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in Japan,

1960-2002 (in percent)
1960-2000
(average)
1992-2000
(average)
Output growth rate
5.5
Unemployment rate
Inflation rate
2002
2000
2001
1.2
1.5
0.7
0.3
2.0
3.0
4.7
5.0
5.4
4.5
0.1
1.6
1.6
0.9
Output growth rate: annual rate of growth of output. Unemployment rate: average
over the year. Inflation rate: annual rate of change of the price level.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 30
What Happened to
Japan in the 1990s?
The Japanese Stock
Market Index, 19802000
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 31
Short-term policies
Decrease interest rates
Fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand
Solve the structural problems
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 32
International organizations, such as the

Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
(OECD), gather data for the richest
countries.
For countries that are not members of the
OECD, one of the main sources of
information is the International Financial
Statistics (IFS), published by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 33
[B] Chapter 1, problems 2, 3, 5

See additional figures for Indonesia
cases: There were not included in
Blanchards book!
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 34
Bagian I
AN OVERVIEW OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE AND PROBLEMS: A VERY
SHORT-RUN VIEW
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 35
Source: Hofman (2004) from IMF.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 36
Laju inflasi, y-o-y

SBY-JK Period
percent
17.89
18.38
10.60
8.81
9.06
7.20
5.79
2002
4.60
2003
2004
2005
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 37
Selama 2004-2005 inflasi

dunia cenderung meningkat,
apalagi setelah kenaikan
harga minyak bumi.
Hingga 2010 inflasi di negara
maju cenderung stabil di
sekitar 2 persen, sedangkan
di negara berkembang
cenderung turun mendekati
level negara maju.
Ada konvergensi harga dunia
akibat globalisasi?
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2005.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 38
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Inflasi di negara-negara
tetangga jauh lebih rendah
dari kita.
Namun, biasanya paling
tidak inflasi di Indonesia
lebih rendah ketimbang di Sri
Lanka dan Pakistan.
Kini, kita yang paling buruk.
Kita sudah merasa terbiasa
hidup dengan temperatur
tubuh yang tinggi.
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 39
Suku bunga SBI 1 bulan, %
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Amerika Serikat sajayang

perekonomiannya sudah sangat
mapan, institusinya sangat kuat,
bank sentralnya independen
dan kredibelselalu mengubah
Fed rate secara bertahap,
biasanya hanya 25 bp.
Kitayang perekonomiannya
jauh dari sehat dan institusinya
masih lemahberani
menaikkan SBI rate sampai
100-125 bp.
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 40
BI Rate
SBI-1month
Sejak diperkenalkan
untuk pertama kalinya, BI
Rate selalu mendahului
pergerakan suku bunga
SBI-1 bulan secara
searah. Jadi BI Rate bisa
dipandang sebagai
pembentuk ekspektasi
yang efektif.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 41
percent
Suku bunga SBI pada 2

Juni 2004 naik untuk
pertama kalinya sejak
2004. Sejak 6 April 2005
naik lebih cepat.
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: State Budget 2004, August 2003; and Bank Indonesia.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 42
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Source: The43
World Bank.
MYZ/RY
9,840
Kuningan Bombing
New Government
Source: Bank Indonesia
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 44
Source: Bank Indonesia
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 45
10,042
8,230
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Bank Indonesia based on Bloomberg
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 46
Nilai tukar Rp
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 47
Ekspor total Jan-Oct 2005 = US$70.1 miliar.

Dengan perkiraan ekspor 2 bulan ke depan
rata-rata US$8m per bulan (optimis), ekspor
total selama 2005 akan mencapai US$86.1
miliar. Versi pemerintah = US$90 miliar.
Total
Nonmigas
2002
Source: Bank Indonesia.
2003
Macroeconomics, 3/e
2004
Olivier Blanchard
2005
MYZ/RY 48
Trade balance, US$ billion
*Projection.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 49
Current account as % of GDP
*Projection.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 50
2002
2003
2004
2005*
Current Account
7,822
8,106
3,108
-400
Exports, f.o.b.
59,165
64,109
72,167
87,000
Imports, f.o.b.
-35,652
-39,546
-50,615
-68,400
Services, net
-9,902
-11,728
-10,879
-11,300
Investment income
-7,048
-6,217
-8,704
-9,000
1,259
1,489
1,182
1,300
-1,102
-949
2,997
3200
Direct foreign inv't, net
145
-597
1,023
1,500
Portfolio inv't, liab., net
1,222
2,251
3,222
2,500
Other inv't, liab. Net
-2,469
-2,604
-1,248
-800
Errors & Omissions
-1,691
-3,503
-5,795
-3,500
Monetary Movements**
-5,029
-3,654
-310
700
Current transfers, net.

Capital & Financial Account
* First quarter. ** Negative represents surplus, positive represents deficit.

Source: Bank Indonesia and own projection.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 51
SBY era
3rd week of April
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 52
(Jakarta composite index)
SBY-JK period
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 53
Trend SBI
Trend IHSG
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 54
FED rate
DJIA
NASD
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 55
Structure
of GDP
JCI-weighted
industry
Difference
Agriculture
15.0
1.3
+13.7
Mining & Quarrying
10.5
7.8
+2.7
Manufacturing
27.6
32.9
-5.3
Construction
5.8
2.4
+3.4
Financial
8.2
28.3
-20.1
Transport & Comm.
6.3
Electricity, Gas & Water
0.9
21.2
-14.0
6.0
+19.7
Trade, Hotel & Rest.

Services
Total
Sources: BPS and JSX.
15.8
9.9
100.0
Macroeconomics, 3/e
100.0
Olivier Blanchard
0.0
MYZ/RY 56
Redemption besar-besaran (massive

redemption) terus berlangsung
hingga September. Selama Jan.-Ags.
saja, dana yang ditarik Rp 238.9
triliun, yang masuk hanya Rp 192.2
triliun. Jadi, secara neto susut
sebesar Rp 46.7 triliun.
Penurunan terbesar terjadi pada

September 2005 (-50%, m-o-m)
Belakangan sebagian besar lari ke

deposito dollar.
Posisi
NAB
Transaksi
Bersih
Sumber: Bapepam
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 57
5.0
6.6
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.1
Pertumbuhan PDB triwulanan, persen
Source: BPS.
Untuk triwulan IV 2005 merupakan angka perkiraan.

Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 59
2003
2004
Q1~2-05
Q3-05
Q1~3-05
3.8
3.5
3.5
4.4
3.8
Agriculture
4.3
4.1
0.3
1.6
1.7
Mining & Quarrying
-0.9
-4.6
-0.9
-2.3
-0.8
Manufacturing
5.3
6.2
6.8
5.6
5.8
Non-Tradable
6.2
7.1
8.6
8.3
8.5
Construction
6.7
8.2
7.4
6.3
7.2
Financial
7.0
7.7
8.2
9.1
8.4
11.6
12.7
13.5
12.9
13.3
Electricity, Gas & Water
5.9
5.9
7.7
9.8
8.8
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
5.3
5.8
9.7
7.9
9.2
Services
3.9
4.9
4.6
5.4
4.9
5.8
6.2
7.0
6.3
6.8
-2.9
-4.4
-5.6
-4.4
Tradable
Transport & Comm.
Non-Oil and Gas

Oil and
Gas
Source:
BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 60
-5.2
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 61
Pertumbuhan PDB berdasarkan penggunaan, persen
2004
Q1~3-05
Q3-05
Konsumsi rumah tangga
4.94
3.75
4.43
Konsumsi pemerintah
1.95
0.62
16.15
15.71
12.38
9.18
Ekspor barang & jasa
8.47
9.50
3.39
Impor barang & jasa
2.95
14.06
9.29
PDB
5.13
5.76
5.34
Pembentukan modal tetap
Source:
BPS. Hall Business Publishing
2003
Prentice
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 62
Investment growth, %
Property share in
total investment, %
Source: BPS.
Pertumbuhan investasi cukup menggembirakan walau masih

sangat berfluktuasi. Namun porsi investasi di sektor properti
secara konsisten masih saja mendominasi/tetap sangat tinggi.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 63
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 64
X 1000 unit
Source: Gaikindo.
* Projection
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 65
Nilai tukar petani mengukur

perbandingan antara harga
produk yang dihasilkan petani
dengan harga-harga kebutuhan
yang dibeli petani.
Sejak krisis tahun 1998 indeks

terus melorot.
Selama setahun terakhir indeks

berada pada tingkat terendah
dalam satu dekade.
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 66
Hampir semua indikator ekonomi jangka pendek:
suku bunga
nilai tukar rupiah
inflasi
cadangan devisa
neraca perdagangan
current account
pesimisme konsumen dan produsen
mengalami pemburukan
yang relatif drastis.
Pemulihan yang terjadi dalam periode yang cukup panjang sebagai

hasil dari disiplin ketat, seketika porak-poranda.
Sementara itu perekonomian kehilangan momentum percepatan
pertumbuhan. Tiga triwulan terakhir pertumbuhan ekonomi terus
menerus merosot.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 67
Retail fuel in selected Asian countries

in mid-August,
US cents per
liter
Gasoline
Indonesias fuel-consumption patterns
Diesel
Electricity
13%
Industry
19%
Transportation
47%
Kerosene
21%
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 68
Current labor force and unemployment

(million)
2004
August
Labor force
Employed
Description
Open unemployment
Open unemployment (%)
February
2005
October*
October**
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.7
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
10.2
10.8
11.2
11.6
9.9
10.3
10.4
10.8
*Tanpa memperhitungkan dampak kenaikan harga BBM (angka sementara).

**Dengan memperhitungkan kenaikan harga BBM (angka sementara).
Sumber: BPS.
Kenaikan harga BBM serta merta menambah penganggur sebanyak 400 ribu orang atau
mengerek naik tingkat pengangguran terbuka sebesar 0,4 persen.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 69
Indicators
1996
1997
2002
2003
2004
National poverly line 1/
15.7
27.1
16
15.1
15.2
1 dollar a day
7.8
12.0
7.2
5.7
4.8
2 dollars a day
50.5
65.1
53.5
48.8
45.4
Unemployment 2/
4.9
6.4
9.1
9.5
9.9
International poverty lines:
Poverty headcount, in percent of population.

In percent of labor force.
Sources: BPS and World Bank.
1/
2/
Penduduk miskin absolut turun, namun yang nyaris miskin masih sangat banyak dan
sangat rentan terhadap gejolak harga.
Kenaikan harga BBM mulai 1 Oktober 2005 yang keterlaluan mengakibatkan jumlah
orang miskin naik 10 juta jiwa.
Penciptaan lapangan kerja, peningkatan produktivitas sektor pertanian, dan
pembangunan infrastruktur, terutama di pedesaan, menjadi kunci peningkatan
kesejahteraan rakyat.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 70
The business tendency

index
The consumer tendency

index
*Estimates.
Source: BPS, 21 November 2005.
Macroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 71
Year
Deposits
(Rp trillion)
Credits
(Rp trillion)
LDR
(percent)
1997
358
378
106
1998
573
487
85
1999
626
225
36
2000
720
269
37
2001
809
308
38
2002
836
410
49 (38)
2003
902
477
53 (43)
2004
963
595
62 (50)
2005*
1,011
664
66 (53)
* Jun.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 72
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 73
Hingga Juni 2005 kredit

perbankan mengalami
peningkatan 13,2%
dibandingkan dengan
posisi Januari 2005.
Sayangnya kredit
investasi yang porsinya
paling kecil (20%) juga
pertumbuhannya paling
lambat, yakni hanya 8%.
Sampai akhir tahun
pertumbuhan kredit
diperkirakan melambat.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 74
Jenis Risiko
Tambahan
Defisit
Kenaikan harga minyak sebesar US$10
Depresiasi sebesar Rp 300 per US$
Produksi minyak turun 50 ribu barrel/hari
Peningkatan konsumsi BBM 10% di atas kuota
Kenaikan 1 persen suku bunga SBI
Keadaan sekarang sudah berpotensi melipatgandakan kenaikan

defisit.
Besarnya tambahan beban belum memasukkan tambahan
pembayaran bunga Surat Utang Negara dan penurunan
pertumbuhan PDB.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 75
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
A 1 percent increase in real growth rate improves the budget

balance by Rp 1.3 trillion (0.05 percent of GDP)
A 1 percent increase in interest rates reduces the budget balance by
Rp 2 trillion (0.07 percent of GDP)
A Rp 100 depreciation in the Rupiah reduces the budget balance by
Rp 0.7 trillion (0.02 percent of GDP)
A US$1/bbl increase in crude oil prices reduces the budget balance
by Rp 1.0 trillion (0.03 percent of GDP)*/
A 1 percent decline in oil production reduces the budget balance by
Rp 1.6 trillion (0.05 percent of GDP).
*/
Due to the increase in domestic fuel prices in October this impact would certainly be reduced and probably reversed, i.e. the impact of
a 1 dollar increase would be positive on the budget.
Source: World Bank, October 2005.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 76
Source: Ministry of Finance, GoI.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 77
Real GDP, percent change

Developing countries
Forecast
High-income countries
Source: World Bank.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 78
2003 2004e
Real GDP growth (%)
High income
2005f
2006f
2007f
2.5
3.8
3.2
3.2
3.3
1.8
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.7
5.5
6.8
5.9
5.7
5.5
1.2
1.7
3.8
5.0
5.2
Euro, 6-month
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.8
Consumer price (%)
G-7 countries
1.5
1.7
2.2
2.0
1.7
2.3
2.7
3.4
3.0
2.4
5.9
10.2
6.2
7.0
7.3
28.9
37.7
53.6
56.0
51.5
Developing countries
Interest rates (%)
$, 6-month
United States
World trade volume (growth, %)

Oil price (US$ per barrel)
Source: World Bank, November 2006.
e = estimate f = forecast
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 79
2003
2004
2005
2006
6.0
7.2
6.2
6.2
Indonesia
4.9
5.1
5.7
6.0
Malaysia
5.4
7.1
5.0
5.3
Philippines
4.5
6.0
4.8
5.0
Thailand
6.9
6.1
4.2
5.0
Korea
3.1
4.6
3.8
4.6
China
9.5
9.5
9.3
8.7
Vietnam
7.3
7.7
7.5
7.5
East Asia
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 80
Global imbalances:
Saving-Investment gap: tingkat tabungan di emerging Asia tumbuh pesat

sementara investasi naik tertatih sejak akhir 1990an. Sebaliknya, di AS terjadi
penurunan tajam tingkat tabungan serta melambungnya kembali investasi
belakangan ini.
Akibatnya terjadi excess global suply of saving in emerging Asia; yang mengalir
ke AS untuk membiayai current account deficit AS yang lebih dari US$750 miliar
tahun ini dan juga menutup S-I gap tekanan terhadap BI untuk menaikkan
suku bunga di tengah BI juga harus terus bejibaku meredam inflasi yang
melambung.
Kondisi yang timpang di AS dan aliran modal masuk merupakan konsekuensi dari
kebijakan fiskal (defisit anngaran) dan kebijakan moneter AS yang ketat untuk
membendung tekanan inflasi dengan tindakan the Fed yang terus menerus
menaikkan suku bunga. Minggu I November 2005 The Fed menaikkan lagi suku
bunga menjadi 4%, peningkatan ke-12 kalinya berturut-turut untuk meredam
risiko inflasi lebih tinggi.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 81
Kebijakan moneter AS akan mendorong kenaikan suku

bunga internasional dari 3,8% (2005) menjadi 5,0
(2006).
Sentimen proteksionisme dan sengketa dagang sebagai
akibat terjadinya global imbalances, khususnya current
account membuat ekspor Indonesia bisa terganggu.
Wabah Avian flu
Terorisme yang menyebar luas
Travel and tourism
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 82
Permintaan dunia
untuk minyak
mentah masih tetap
kuat pada tahun
2006, terutama dari
China dan negaranegara
berkembang
lainnya.
Source: World Bank based on IEA Oil Market Report. Sept. 2005 and earlier issues.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 83
Note: Deflated by the chain-type price index for PCE. Sources: BEA and Haver Analytics.
Tampaknya sulit membayangkan harga

minyak bumi akan
turun ke level tahun
2004.
2003 Prentice
HallWorld
Business
Publishing
Macroeconomics,
3/e
Source: IMF,
Economic
Outlook, September
2005.
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 84
Apakah tim ekonomi akan semakin solid?
Ya, ada secercah harapan setelah dilakukannya reshuffle kabinet.

Tapi, reshuffle kabinet saja tak cukup
Yang menjamin perbaikan adalah jika orkestra dibenahi:
setiap pemain menguasai alat musik masing-masing,
Setiap pemain membaca partitur yang sama.
Tak boleh ada dua dirijen, dan sang dirijen menyampaikan aba-aba yang dipahami
setiap pemain.
Double track programs:
Broad base: hilangkan segala hambatan usaha dan praktik-praktik ekonomi

biaya tinggi.
Targetting: pertanian dan pedesaan untuk memerangi pengangguran dan
kemiskinan.
Tingkatkan daya saing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 85
STRATEGY & POLICIES TO CREATE

JOB AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE
Targeting, especially to low

income group:
Broad Base:
Market Mechanism
Stimulate Aggregate Demand:
- Agriculture sector
- Rural area: infrastructures
Employment creation
High MPC and multiplier effect
Low import content and low technology
Produced by SMEs
Fiscal Policies:
VA tax & Luxury tax
Budget allocation
Affirmative actions
Asset redistribution
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Banking and debt

restructuring
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 86
Political
environment
Physical infrastructure
Social
structure
Legal and
institutions
Fiscal
infrastructure
Technology
Education
Labor
market
Capital
market
Product
market
Cost
Production cost
Supply
Productivity
Dynamics
Capacity to innovate and adjust
Monetary and
fiscal stability
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Market
structure
C
O
M
P
E
T
I
T
I
V
E
N
E
S
S
Olivier Blanchard
Job
&
Prosperity
MYZ/RY 87
Old Model
New Model
Economic development is a
Government drives
collaborative process
economic development
through policy decisions and
incentives.
involving government at
multiple levels, companies,
teaching and research
institutions, and institutions
for collaboration.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 88
5. Pengelolaan utang dan struktur APBN

4. Menyehatkan perbankan
3. Memerangi kemiskinan dan ketimpangan
2. Mengikis open unemployment and under-employment
1. Keluar dari perangkap pertumbuhan rendah
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 89
Governance
Investment
Climate
Service
Delivery
Confront Corruption and Governance Weaknesses

Strengthening Human Resources
Address Looming Infrastructure Crisis
Deepen Structural and Regulatory reforms
Continue Strong Macroeconomic Management
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 90
Program unggulan SBY-JK:
Revitalisasi sektor pertanian,

UMKM, dan pengentasan
penduduk miskin, mengurangi
pengangguran.
Peningkatan daya saing nasional.
Perbaikan atau penyehatan iklim
investasi dan iklim berusaha.
Realisasi:
Kontroversi impor beras, kebijakan

UMKM tak terdengar, orang miskin
dan pengangguran meningkat.
Daya saing nasional terus merosot.
Yang terlebih dahulu menyodok
adalah Infrastructure Summit.
Bahkan dalam waktu dekat akan
digelar yang kedua.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 91
Kemerosotan berbagai indikator makroekonomi belakangan ini terjadi bukan

karena semakin membusuknya fondasi ekonomi, melainkan lebih karena buruk
laku,tak disiplin, terlalu percaya diri, dan conflict of interest sehingga gagal
memanfaatkan momentum percepatan.
Pemerintahan SBY baru setahun. Harusnya SBY sadar bahwa menunda

penyelesaian masalah sama saja dengan membuat tumpukan sampah kian
menggunung, sehingga makin sulit diatasi, sehingga mempersempit peluangnya
jika maju kembali pada pemilihan presiden pada 2009.
2009
Seburuk-buruknya penadbiran (governance), sepanjang yang diobok-obok

adalah dana APBN, porsinya sangat kecil di dalam perekonomian (gross
domestic product).
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 92
Sosok Boediono sebagai Menko Perekonomian adalah peletak

dasar kestabilan makroekonomi 3 tahun terakhir. Ia tahu benar apa
yang harus dilakukan, sehingga tak perlu masa belajar.
Sri Mulyani sangat menguasai bidangnya. Semoga berani

melakukan pembaruan yang lebih cepat atas DJP dan DJBC.
Keduanya memenuhi syarat yang tak dimiliki sosok-sosok yang

digantikannya.
Kerangka makroekonomi akan lebih jelas dan terukur, sehingga tak

eksperimental.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 93
Koordinasi yang lebih erat dengan Bank Indonesia.

Mampu mengerem bicara. Serahkan juru bicara kepada
Menko Perekonomian.
Sinergi antara otoritas/pengelola makroekonomi dengan
menteri-menteri sektoral: saatnya pembenahan sektor riil.
Perkecil risiko yang berasal dari sisi eksternal yang
kemungkinan besar semakin tak bersahabat.
Tampilkan citra keberpihakan terhadap rasa keadilan.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 94
Reaksi di pasar saham positif. Indeks bergerak naik

mendekati angka 1.200.
Nilai tukar rupiah menguat di bawah Rp 10.000 per US$.
Perbaikan kedua indikator di atas dipicu oleh investor
asing.
Masih sebatas euphoria munculnya tim ekonomi baru.
Perlu ditunggu delivery yang nyata.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 95
Real effective exchange rate (REER)

Ruang gerak Rp
untuk menguat
Source: Bank Indonesia based on Bloomberg and CEIC.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 96
Dec-12
IDR/US$
Exchange
Rate
One-Month
SBI Rate
(%)
9,735
12.75
1Month
10,100
13.50
3Month
6Month
12Month
9,800
9,600
9,450
13.25
Macroeconomics, 3/e
12.00
10.20
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 97
2005
Assumptions
APBN
APBN-P
2006
Latest
Prognosis
RAPBN
APBN
Real GDP growth (%, y-o-y)
5.4
6.0
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.2
Inflation rate (%, y-o-y)
5.5
7.5
7.8
8.6
7.0
8.0
Exchange rate (Rp/US$, average)
8,600
9,300
9,895
9,800
9,400
9,900
3-month SBI rate (% per annum)
6.50
8.00
8.54
8.40
8.00
9.50
24
45
67
54
40
57
1.125
1.125
1.125
1.075
1.075
1.050
Oil price (US$/barrel, average)

Oil production (million barrel/day)
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 98
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 99
Description
Economic growth (GDP, %)
GDP per capita (current US$)
Inflation rate (%)
Oil production (million barrel/day)+
Oil price (US$/barrel)
Exchange rate (Rupiah/US$)++
Population growth (%)+++
2004*
2005**
2006***
5.1
5.5
5.8
1,191
1,219
1,395
6.1
16.8
8.5
1.125
1.075
1.05
28
50.6
56
8,936
9,750
9,685
1.4
1.4
1.4
Realization ** Estimate *** Projection

Including condensates ++Yearly average +++Average population growth for 2003-2015 is 1.2 percent
Source: Various sources and author estimates and projections.
*
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 100
Pada tahun 2003 (HDR

2005) Indonesia berada
pada urutan 110 dari 177
negara. Posisi ini naik 1
tingkat dibandingkan dengan
tahun 2002 (HDR 2004).
Tapi dibandingkan dengan
negara-negara tetangga, kita
makin tertinggal. Bahkan
dengan Viet Nam pun
sekarang kita sudah kalah.
Source: UNDP, Human Development Report, various yaers.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 103
Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2005.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 104
Country
Grade
Ranking
Thailand
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
Philippines
China
Bangladesh
Cambodia
India
Viet Nam
Indonesia
10
Pakistan
11
Solomon Islands
12
Papua New Guinea
13
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Pada tahun 2005

Indonesia berada pada
urutan ke-10 dari 14
negara di Asia-Pasifik
dalam hal kinerja negara
dalam mendukung
pendidikan dasar. Nilai
dari A (terbaik) hingga F
(terburuk).
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 105
Reading Literacy
Rate
Mathematical
Literacy Rate
Scientific Literacy
Rate
Indonesia
371
367
393
Argentina
418
388
396
Hong Kong
525
560
541
Korea
525
547
552
Mexico
422
387
422
Thailand
431
432
436
Country
Source: Unesco.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 106
Indonesia
China
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Viet Nam
Births attended by
skilled health
personnel (%, 2002)
64
76
58
99
97
70
Physicians (per 100,000

people, 2002)
16
164
115
30
68
54
Health expenditure
(public, as % of GDP,
2001)
0.6
2.0
1.5
2.1
2.1
1.5
Children under weight

for age (% under age 5,
1995-2002)
26
11
28
19
12
33
Indicators
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 107
Malaria cases
(per 100,000 people),
2000
TBC cases
(per 100,000 people),
2002
TBC-related mortality
rate (per 100,000
people), 2001
Urban population with

access to improved
sanitation (%), 2000
476
734
95
56
272
21
69
Indonesia
920
609
68
69
Lao
759
359
27
67
Malaysia
57
120
18
..
Myanmar
224
176
34
84
Philippines
15
540
56
93
Thailand
130
179
18
96
Bangladesh
40
447
56
71
India
344
42
61
Pakistan
58
379
45
95
Countries
Cambodia
China
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 108
Sumber: Komite Kemanusiaan Indonesia, 27 Juli 2004.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Catatan: Untuk 2004 posisi Maret.
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 109
Fixed telephone lines: 8.3 millions.
Mobile telephone: 20 millions.
Telephone density: 3.8% (not well distributed),

and less then 0,1% in rural areas.
40% of district capital and 60% of villages dont

have any telephone line access at all.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 110
Indicators
Developing
Countries
Indonesia
49.1
22.8
117.1
37.3
62.3
55.2
257.2
159.0
Telephone mainlines (per 1,000 people)
99.8
37.0
Television sets (per 1,000 people), 2001
190.0
153.0
Daily newspaper (per 1,000 people), 1998

Int. tlc., outgoing traffic (minutes per subscriber)
Mobile phones (per 1,000 people)
Radios (per 1,000 people), 1997
Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators database.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 111
Country
DAI
ITR
Singapore
0.75
Malaysia
0.57
32
Thailand
0.48
41
Indonesia
0.34
63
Source: ITU
Telecom infrastructures,
which is the foundation
of the information
communication industry,
are insufficient to
support economic
development and sociocultural development
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 112
HDI
rank
Countries
Population
GDP per capita

(PPP US$)
Telephone mainlines
(per 1,000 people)
Cellular subscribers
(per 1,000 people)
Fixed lines and mobile telephones

(per 1,000 people)
Georgia
5.2
2,260
174
61
175
Azerbaijan
8.1
3,210
120
97
200
Ecuador
12.6
3,580
104
67
170
Sri Lanka
18.7
3,570
44
36
80
Armenia
3.1
3,120
140
146
Uzbekistan
25.0
1,670
67
72
Viet Nam
79.5
2,300
38
23
53
Syria
16.6
3,280
103
12
121
Indonesia
209.0
3,230
37
55
66
10
Bolivia
8.6
2,460
63
94
158
11
Honduras
6.6
2,600
47
36
84
12
Egypt
65.1
3,810
104
43
147
13
India
1,032.5
2,670
38
44
14
Ghana
19.9
2,130
12
21
15
Zimbabwe
12.8
2,400
22
29
51
Sources: The World Bank; and UNDP, Human Development Report 2004.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 113
Country
1998
2000
2002
China
8.9
15.9
27.6
Indonesia
8.3
10.2
11.9
Malaysia
62.5
94.5
146.8
Philippines
15.1
19.3
27.7
Thailand
21.9
28.3
39.8
Vietnam
5.2
7.5
9.8
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 114
Country
Internet Users (per

1,000 people, 2002
Researchers in R&D (per million

people, 1990-2001)
China
46.0
584
Indonesia
37.7
130
319.7
160
Philippines
44.0
156
Thailand
77.6
74
Viet Nam
18.5
274
Malaysia
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 115
Penduduk
Negara
(Juta Jiwa)
Panjang Jalan (Km)
Total
Arteri
Tol
(Km/Juta)
Japan
125
1,166,340
11,520
9,422
Korea
46
88,775
2,600
1,986
Malaysia
22
64,949
1,230
3,008
1,300
1,700,000
100,000
1,384
210
26,000
520
126
China
Indonesia
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 117
Panjang jalan tol per 1 juta penduduk, 2002
Jepang
China
92
77
Km
Km
Korea
Malaysia
56
55
Km
Km
Indonesia
2,5
Km
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 118
118
Countries
1998
2000
China
722
827
Indonesia
325
384
2,554
2,628
466
477
Thailand
1,345
1,448
Vietnam
232
286
Malaysia
Philippines
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 119
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 120
Source: Wilson, Mann, and Otsuki, 2004.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 121
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
Overall Rank
40
47
44
49
47
Economic Performance
41
30
36
41
42
Government Efficiency
35
46
41
45
45
Business Efficiency
41
46
45
48
49
Infrastructure
44
47
47
49
49
* Covering 49 countries.
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, various years.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 123
Sourrce: Bureau of Economic Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Commerce.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 124
Singapore
Malaysia
Korea
Indonesia
Chile
Source: International Telecommunications Union and operative websites.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 125
PERCENT
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 127
Unemployment growth rate
GDP growth rate
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 128
Pekerja di sektor informal (%)

Under-employment = bekerja <36 jam (%)
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 129
Manufacturing employment
is falling
(percent growth rate of manufacturing emloyment)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: The World Bank based on BPS industrial census data .
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 130
Targeted unemployment in 2009 (%)
5.0
6.0
7.0
Unemployment (million)
5.5
6.6
7.7
14.0
2.8
12.9
2.6
11.8
2.4
Absorption (million)
2004-2009
Yearly average
Employment creation
per 1% GDP growth
Yearly GDP growth required

in 2004-2009 (%)
200,000
14.0
13.2
12.8
300,000
9.3
8.7
8.0
400,000
7.0
6.5
6.0
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 131
Aug. 2004
Feb. 2005
Change
Labor force (million)
104.0
105.8
1.8
Employment (million)
93.7
94.9
1.2
Open unemployment: million

%
10.3
9.9
10.9
10.3
0.6
0.4
Underemployment: million
%
27.9
29.8
29.6
31.2
1.7
1.4
Informal sector: million

%
59.2
63.2
60.6
63.9
1.4
0.7
Source: BPS.
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
MYZ/RY 132

MYZ2 Mon 1a Intro KuliahI Makro Chap 1

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