Chng 5

Tng trng kinh t

Nguyn Vit Hng

Mc tiu ca chng

M t xu th tng trng di hn ca mt s nn
kinh t th gii

Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti tng trng

kinh t

Gii thiu mt s l thuyt tng trng

Trnh by cc chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh

t

Mc tiu ca chng

M t xu th tng trng di hn ca mt s nn
kinh t th gii

Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti tng trng

kinh t

Gii thiu mt s l thuyt tng trng

Trnh by cc chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh

t

Xu th tng trng di hn
GDP thc t

GDP thc t

T l

Nc

Thi k

Japan

1890-1997

$1,196

$23,400

2.82%

Brazil

1900-1990

6,240

2.41

Mexico

1900-1997

61
9
922

8,120

2.27

Germany
Canada

1870-1997
1870-1997

1,738
1,890

21,300
21,860

1.99
1,95

China

1900-1997

570

3,570

1.91

Argentina

1900-1997

1,824

9,950

1.76

United States

1870-1997

3,188

28,740

1.75

Indonesia

1900-1997

708

3,450

1.65

3,826

20,520

1.33

United Kingdom 1870-1997

u k

cui k

tng trng

India
Pakistan

1900-1997
1900-1997

537
587

1,950
1,590

1.34
1.03

Bangladesh

1900-1997

495

1,050

0.78

Xu th tng trng di hn
Mt

quc gia c xut pht im thp khng

hn s mi c mc sng thp hn nc c
xut pht im cao hn (Nht Bn vs.
Argentina)

Xu th tng trng di hn
Mt

nc c xut pht im thp khng hn

s c tc tng trng kinh t cao hn

mc trung bnh ca th gii (Pakistan v
Bangladesh).

Xu th tng trng di hn
Mt

nc c xut pht im cao hon ton

c th duy tr mc tng trng cao so vi

mc trung bnh ca th gii (c v
Canada).

Xu th tng trng di hn

Nguyn nhn ca s khc bit v mc sng

v tc tng trng kinh t l g?

Mc tiu ca chng

M t xu th tng trng di hn ca mt s nn
kinh t th gii

Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti tng trng

kinh t

Gii thiu mt s l thuyt tng trng

Trnh by cc chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh

t

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Mc sng ph thuc vo s lng hng ha v dch

v c tiu dng.

S lng hng ha v dch v c tiu dng ph

thuc vo s lng hng ha v dch v c sn
xut ra, tc l nng sut lao ng.

Mc sng ph thuc vo nng sut lao ng

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Nng sut ph thuc vo

1.

T bn hin vt

T bn hin vt phn nh s lng my mc trang b cho ngi lao

ng

T bn hin vt cao gii thch c nng sut cao

Quy lut li tc cn bin gim dn ca t bn hin vt

T bn hin vt cao hn khng gii thch c s gia tng nng

sut (tng trng) theo thi gian.

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Nng sut ph thuc vo

2.

Vn nhn lc

Vn nhn lc phn nh nhng tri thc v k nng m nh qun

l, ngi k s, ngi th c trang b thng qua gio dc v
kinh nghim.

Vn nhn lc cao mang li nng sut cao

Vn nhn lc cng ch gia tng ti mt ngng (sau khi c ht

sch) khng gii thch c s gia tng nng sut theo thi
gian.

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Nng sut ph thuc vo

3.

Ti nguyn thin nhin

Ti nguyn ti to v ti nguyn khng th ti to

Du m l ngun ti nguyn cc k quan trng gii thch

s giu c ca mt s nc Trung ng.

Ti nguyn khng phi l yu t quyt nh ti tng trng

nng sut trong di hn (ti nguyn cn kit)

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Nng sut ph thuc vo

4.

Tri thc cng ngh

Pht kin ca con ngi v cc phng thc qun l v sn xut

mi lm nng cao nng sut (lm cun sch dy hn v hu ch
hn)

Mt t nng dn c th nui sng c mt quc gia

Mt chic my tnh x l cng vic ca c trm ngi.

y l yu t quyt nh n mc nng sut cao v c mc tng

trng cao ca nng sut.

Nhn t quyt nh n tng trng

kinh t v mc sng

Y AF ( K , L, H , N )

AF K , H , N ,1
L
L
L L
y AF (k , h, n)

Trong y: nng sut bnh qun (sn lng chia cho s lao ng)
k: t bn trang b cho mt lao ng
h: vn nhn lc tnh trn mt lao ng
n: ti nguyn tnh trn mt lao ng
A: tin b cng ngh

Mc tiu ca chng

M t xu th tng trng di hn ca mt s nn
kinh t th gii

Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti tng trng

kinh t

Gii thiu mt s l thuyt tng trng

Trnh by cc chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh

t

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Cc l thuyt tng trng tp trung phn tch xu th

tng trng trong di hn ca nng sut (sn lng
tnh trn mt lao ng)

Cc l thuyt tng trng khng cp ti nhng

bin ng trong ngn hn ca nng sut.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

L

thuyt tng trng c in ca Malthus

L thuyt nhn khu ra i cui th k 18, thi k
u ca cch mng cng nghip.

L thuyt d bo nn kinh t s t ti mt mc
sng va duy tr s sng v khng cn
tng trng na.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Ni dung l thuyt tng trng c in ca Malthus

Nng sut nng nghip tng khi din tch t nng nghip
m rng sinh nhiu, cht gim

Khi khai thc ht din tch t, dn s tip tc tng nng

sut nng nghip gim (quy lut li tc gim dn) cht
tng, sinh gim

Dn s s dng ti mt ngng Pop* v mc sng ca mi

ngi duy tr ti khng cn tng trng.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Hn ch ca l thuyt tng trng c in ca Malthus

Khng tnh ti s xut hin ca t bn lm tng nng sut nng

nghip

do xut hin khu vc cng nghip khi ngi nng dn chuyn sang
lm vic ti khu vc cng nghip

Khng tnh ti tin b khoa hc lm tng nng sut nng nghip

Khng tnh ti s gia tng nng sut khu vc cng nghip v

dch v

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

L

thuyt tng trng ca Harrod-Domar.

Tc gi Harrod (Anh) v Domar (M) nghin cu
c lp vo nhng nm 1940.

L thuyt ny nhn mnh ti vai tr ca tit kim

(chuyn ha thnh u t vo t bn) s m
bo vic tng trng lin tc trong di hn.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Ni dung l thuyt tng trng ca Harrod-Domar

Gi nh t bn khng i mt vi quy lut li tc gim dn

(t l t bn trn sn lng khng i)

Nu t l tit kim ln b p phn hao mn t bn

v dn s tng th nn kinh t s lun c tng trng.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Hn ch ca l thuyt tng trng Harrod-Domar

Gi nh t bn khng i mt vi quy lut li tc gim dn

i lp vi cc phn tch vi m truyn thng

Coi t l tit kim l yu t ngoi sinh khng ph thuc vo

trng thi tng trng

Ch ch trng yu t t bn m b qua cc yu t vn nhn

lc v tin b cng ngh.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

L thuyt tng trng tn c in ca Solow

L thuyt ca Solow (gii Nobel Kinh t nm 1987) ra i

nm 1956 v k tha l thuyt ca Harrod-Domar

L thuyt ny nhn mnh ti t bn hin vt v c bit l

ni ti tin b cng ngh vi vai tr l nhn t duy nht
quyt nh ti tng trng di hn.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Ni dung l thuyt ca Solow

Gi nh t bn i mt vi quy lut li tc gim dn.

T bn cao hn mang li mc nng sut cao hn nhng

khng duy tr c tc tng trng nng sut cao.

Tin b cng ngh l nhn t mang li tng trng nng

sut trong di hn.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Hn

ch ca l thuyt Solow

Coi t l tit kim l yu t ngoi sinh

Coi tin b cng ngh l yu t ngoi sinh

Chng ta khng t quyt nh c tc tng

trng.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

L thuyt tng trng mi (ni sinh)

Cc tc gi Arrow, Romer, Lucas, Grossman v Helpman,

Aghion v Howitt a ra v hon thin dn trong vi thp
nin gn y.

L thuyt ny nhn mnh ti u t vo t bn hin vt,

gio dc tng vn nhn lc, v nghin cu trin khai
mang li tin b cng ngh.

Mt s l thuyt tng trng

Ni dung l thuyt tng trng mi (ni sinh)

Cho rng u t vo t bn cp v m khng i mt

vi tnh li tc gim dn do hiu ng lan truyn tch cc.

Ni sinh ha t l tit kim, tin b cng ngh v vn nhn

lc ph thuc vo trng thi tng trng

Cho rng nh hng ca tng t l tit kim di hn hn rt

nhiu so vi m hnh tn c in d bo.

Mc tiu ca chng

M t xu th tng trng di hn ca mt s nn
kinh t th gii

Trnh by cc nhn t quyt nh ti tng trng

kinh t

Gii thiu mt s l thuyt tng trng

Trnh by cc chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh

t

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

Cc

chnh sch lm gia tng cc nhn t t

bn hin vt k, vn nhn lc h, ti nguyn n,

v tin b cng ngh A s gip thc y tng
trng kinh t.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

1.

Chnh sch u t

Mi quan h gia u t v tng trng kinh t t ra

khng kht

u t lm gia tng t bn hin vt, tng tin b cng ngh

thng qua nghin cu trin khai, v do lm tng nng
sut.

Nng sut gia tng lm tng mc tiu dng v tit kim, qua
lm tng mc u t.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

(a) Tng trng 1960-1991
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
0

(b) u t 1960-1991
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda

% tng trng

10

20

30

u t, % GDP

40

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

u t trong nc (chng tip theo)

u t nc ngoi

u t nc ngoi trc tip

Ngi nc ngoi trc tip qun l hot ng s dng vn

Ph bin cc nc ang pht trin v pht trin

u t nc ngoi gin tip

Ngi nc ngoi ti tr vn v ngi trong nc qun l vn

t ph bin cc nc c h thng ti chnh yu km, c bit pht trin ti cc

quc gia pht trin.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

2.

Chnh sch thng mi t do

ng h thng mi t do

L thuyt li th so snh ca Ricardo

Mi nc sn xut hng ha m nc c li th so
snh (chi ph c hi nh hn) ri trao i vi nhau s m
rng gii hn tiu dng ca c hai quc gia so vi khi
mi quc gia t sn xut v tiu dng.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

M sn xut 1 gi c 10 o v 3 my tnh

Vit Nam sn xut 1 gi c 6 o l 1 my tnh.

Vit Nam nn sn xut o (chi ph c hi l 1/6 my tnh) v M nn

sn xut my tnh (chi ph c hi l 10/3).

Sau 1 gi, M sn xut 3 my tnh cn Vit Nam sn xut 6 chic o.

Hai nc trao i theo t l 1 my tnh: 5 o

VN c 1 my tnh v 1 o sau 1 gi > 1 my tnh

M c 2 my tnh v 5 o sau 1 gi > 1.5 my tnh v 5 o

C hai nc u c li hn t thng mi.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

2.

Chnh sch thng mi t do

ng h thng mi t do

Chnh sch hng ra xut khu thnh cng cc

nc ng : Singapor, Hn Quc, i Loan,
Malaysia

Xu th hi nhp khu vc v ton cu ha.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

2.

Chnh sch thng mi t do

Phn i thng mi t do

Chnh sch thay th hng nhp khu: cc nc M

Latin nh Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia tng thnh cng
trong nhng nm 1960.

Bo h ngnh cng nghip non tr bng thu quan v

hn ngch

Ngy nay, cc chnh sch ny khng cn thnh

cng v nhng ch cho chnh sch m ca v t do
thng mi.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

2.

Chnh sch thng mi t do

T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO) vi

khong 150 nc thnh vin
Mt lot cc t chc kinh t khu vc: EU,
ASEAN, APEC, ASEM, NAFTA,
Mt lot cc k kt thng mi song phng.

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

3.

Chnh sch gio dc

Gio dc cp 1 v cp 2 thng c t l li tc
cao hn so vi gio dc cc bc cao hn.
Chy mu cht xm Tt hay Xu?
Gio dc Vit Nam

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t

4.

Quyn s hu ti sn v n nh chnh tr

5.

Kim sot tc tng dn s

6.

Nghin cu trin khai