SEISMIC HAZARD

Seismic risk versus seismic hazard

risk = hazard vulnerability cost

Seismic Hazard is the probability of occurrence of a specified level of
ground shaking in a specified period of time. But a more general
definition includes anything associated with an earthquake that may
affect the normal activities of people, i.e. surface faulting, ground
shaking,
landslides, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, and tsunamis.

Vulnerability is the degree of damage caused by various levels of

loading. The vulnerability may be calculated in a probabilistic or
deterministic way for a single structure or groups of structures.

Seismic Risk is expressed in terms of economic costs, loss of lives or

environmental damage per unit of time.

It is the job of the geophysicists to provide hazard assessments (- but

not risk assessments.)
 Where do the largest earthquakes occur?

It is known from both historical and modern data that the largest
quakes strike in S. America, Alaska and throughout Asia.

Indeed, the three largest ones in the past century are:

1. Chile, 1969, Mw9.5
2. Alaska, 1964, Mw9.2
3. Sumatra-Andaman, 2004, Mw9.1
 Global seismic hazard

(Figure from Allen, 2007)

Map prepared by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (Giardini, 1999).
 Consequences of urbanization

Urbanization in developing
nations is rapid, but is flat in
industrial nations.

(Figure from Bilham, 2004)

''By the year 2025 more than 5500 million people will live in cities - more
than our entire 1990 combined rural and urban population.''

(from Roger's Bilham web-page)

Consequences of urbanization

Note the slower

growth of cities in
N. America and W.
Euro. with respect
to cities throughout
Asia and S.
America.

Thus, the poor are

at greater risk than
the rich.

The location of the

largest cities in 1950 and
2000 superimposed on
the hazard map.
 Consequences of urbanization

While cities in seismically

safe regions are removed
from the top 30 list, cities in
hazardous regions grow
more rapidly.

Question: why are big cities

built in areas of high seismic
risk?

(Figure from Allen, 2007)

 Consequences of urbanization

Sumatra (2004)

Tangshan (1976)

(Figure from Allen, 2007)

8000 per year
Note that: 25,000 per year

1. The change in character pre- and post- 1940.

2. The two largest quakes did not cause many fatalities.

3. The new millennium started really bad

 Consequences of urbanization

While the number of

fatalities is increasing, it
is not increasing as
global population.

Thus, an individual risk

of dying has decreased
by a factor of 2 since
1950.

The chances of
dying of an
earthquake are very
small. Only 1 out of
200,000 people per
year! (Figure from Allen, 2007)
 Fatalities rate vs. growth rate
The conclusion that fatalities rate increase slower than population
growth is not true for Iran (and some other developing nations).

(Figure from Bilham, 2004)

Earthquake fatalities rate in Iran is in pace with the population
growth.

Fatalities rate in Iran is rising at an increasing rate.

 Does fatalities rate rises at an increasing rate?

500 years of historical

and modern record
suggest that the fatalities
rate rises at an increasing
rate (Bilham, 2004).

(Figure from Bilham, 2004)

 What to do?

Much of the risk may be mitigated by:

Implementation of Early Warning Systems.

Improvement and implementation of building codes.

Fault mapping.
 Early Warning System (ERS)

In many cases, the magnitude of an

impending earthquake may be estimated a
few tens of seconds prior to the arrival of the
destructive ground motion to the populated
area. In such cases, many lives may be
saved simply by:

Shutting down power supplies.

Shutting down of nuclear reactors.

Stopping or reducing the speed of fast trains.

 Building codes

Earthquake dont kill - buildings do (but

also tsunami).

Earthquake resistant construction costs

only 10% more than nonresistant
construction.

Structures in CA built after 1976, when a

new building code was implemented,
suffered very little damage in the 1989
Loma Prieta and the 1994 Northridge.

The implementation gap.

 Fault mapping

* Earthquakes occur on faults.

* Yet, the location of some major faults is unknown.

* Examples for major earthquakes that ruptured unrecognized

faults include:
1989, Loma Prieta.
1994, Northridge.
 But what about prediction?
Short term vs. long term prediction

The public wants this

Scientists provide this

Question: Will short term high probability prediction solve the

problem?
 But what about prediction?

Lesson from the Hurricane Katrina example:

It is possible to make high probability short term predictions for

hurricanes, as was done in the case of hurricane Katrina. Still an
estimated 1800 people were killed in New Orleans and
neighboring areas. About 50% of New Orleans residences still
have not yet returned to the city.
 Public funding for earthquake science

Should the tax payer fund earthquake research?

Given that only 1 out of 200,000 people dies as a result of an

earthquake.

Given that many (most?) scientists think the short term high
probability prediction will not be possible.
 The world has not yet experienced a major quake directly
beneath a mega-city, the economic and geopolitical
consequences of which are unimaginable. About 35% of
Tangshan population perished in the 1976 quake. Such a fatalities
rate in a city with a population of 3 million, would result in 1 million
fatalities!!!

The two most damaging quakes in the U.S. were 1989, Loma
Prieta, and the 1994, Northridge, cause only 60 deaths each, but
cause financial loss of 10 and 46 billions dollars, respectively.

Advancement in EQ physics will pave the way to advancements

in other fields, most notably material sciences and engineering.
 Recommended readings:

Allen, R., Earthquake hazard mitigation: New direction and

opportunities, in "Treatise on Geophysics, 2007.

Bilham, R., Earthquakes and urban growth, Nature 336, 625-626,

1988.

Bilham, R., Urban earthquakes fatalities: A safer world, or worse

to come? Seis. Res. Lett. 75, 706-712, 2004.