Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 3
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood
that an event will occur.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 4
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence
0 .5 1
Probability:
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 5
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
In statistics, the notion of an experiment differs
somewhat from that of an experiment in the
physical sciences.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 7
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Experiment Experiment Outcomes
Toss a coin Head, tail
Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 8
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Investment Gain or Loss
in 3 Months (in $1000s)
Markley Oil Collins Mining
10 8
5 -2
0
-20
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 9
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 10
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Markley Oil: n1 = 4
Collins Mining: n2 = 2
Total Number of
Experimental Outcomes: n1n2 = (4)(2) = 8
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 11
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Markley Oil Collins Mining Experimental
(Stage 1) (Stage 2) Outcomes
Gain 8 (10, 8) Gain $18,000
(10, -2) Gain $8,000
Gain 10 Lose 2
Gain 8 (5, 8) Gain $13,000
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 13
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
N N!
PnN n !
n (N - n )!
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 14
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
1. The probability assigned to each experimental
outcome must be between 0 and 1, inclusively.
where:
Ei is the ith experimental outcome
and P(Ei) is its probability
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 15
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2. The sum of the probabilities for all experimental
outcomes must equal 1.
where:
n is the number of experimental outcomes
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 16
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption
of equally likely outcomes
Subjective Method
Assigning probabilities based on judgment
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 17
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 18
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days
0 4
1 6
2 18
3 10
4 2
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 19
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days Probability
0 4 .10
1 6 .15
2 18 .45 4/40
3 10 .25
4 2 .05
40 1.00
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 20
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 21
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exper. Outcome Net Gain or Loss Probability
(10, 8) $18,000 Gain .20
(10, -2) $8,000 Gain .08
(5, 8) $13,000 Gain .16
(5, -2) $3,000 Gain .26
(0, 8) $8,000 Gain .10
(0, -2) $2,000 Loss .12
(-20, 8) $12,000 Loss .02
(-20, -2) $22,000 Loss .06
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 22
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1.00
An event is a collection of sample points.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 23
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
M = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2)}
P(M) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26
= .70
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 24
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
C = {(10, 8), (5, 8), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8) + P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .16 + .10 + .02
= .48
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 25
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Complement of an Event
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 26
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The complement of event A is defined to be the event
consisting of all sample points that are not in A.
Sample
Event A Ac Space S
Venn
Diagram
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 27
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The union of events A and B is the event containing
all sample points that are in A or B or both.
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 28
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable (or both)
M C = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
+ P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26 + .10 + .02
2015 = Reserved.
Cengage Learning. All Rights .82 May not be scanned, copied
Slide 29
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The intersection of events A and B is the set of all
sample points that are in both A and B.
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
Intersection of A and B
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 30
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
M C = {(10, 8), (5, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8)
= .20 + .16
= .36
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 31
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The addition law provides a way to compute the
probability of event A, or B, or both A and B occurring.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 32
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48, P(M C) = .36
Thus: P(M C) = P(M) + P(C) - P(M C)
= .70 + .48 - .36
= .82
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 33
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the
events have no sample points in common.
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 34
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A B = 0.
There is no need to
include - P(A B
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 35
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The probability of an event given that another event
has occurred is called a conditional probability.
P( A B)
P( A|B)
P( B)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 36
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
P(C| M ) = Collins Mining Profitable
given Markley Oil Profitable
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70
P(C M ) .36
Thus: P(C | M ) .5143
P( M ) .70
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 37
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The multiplication law provides a way to compute the
probability of the intersection of two events.
P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 38
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C|M) = .5143
Thus: P(M C) = P(M)P(M|C)
= (.70)(.5143)
= .36
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 39
Collins Mining
Markley Oil Profitable (C) Not Profitable (Cc) Total
Joint Probabilities
(appear in the body
Marginal Probabilities
of the table)
(appear in the margins
of the table)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 40
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
If the probability of event A is not changed by the
existence of event B, we would say that events A
and B are independent.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 41
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The multiplication law also can be used as a test to see
if two events are independent.
P(A B) = P(A)P(B)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 42
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
Are events M and C independent?
Does P(M C) = P(M)P(C) ?
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48
But: P(M)P(C) = (.70)(.48) = .34, not .36
Hence: M and C are not independent.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 43
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Do not confuse the notion of mutually exclusive
events with that of independent events.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 45
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2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 46
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A1 = town council approves the zoning change
A2 = town council disapproves the change
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 47
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 48
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P(B|A1) = .2 P(B|A2) = .9
P(BC|A1) = .8 P(BC|A2) = .1
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 49
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Town Council Planning Board Experimental
Outcomes
P(B|A1) = .2
P(A1 B) = .14
P(A1) = .7
c
P(B |A1) = .8 P(A1 Bc) = .56
P(B|A2) = .9
P(A2 B) = .27
P(A2) = .3
c
P(B |A2) = .1 P(A2 Bc) = .03
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1.00 Slide 50
P( Ai )P( B| Ai )
P( Ai |B)
P( A1 )P( B| A1 ) P( A2 )P( B| A2 ) ... P( An )P( B| An )
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 51
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
P( A1 )P( B| A1 )
P( A1 |B)
P( A1 )P( B| A1 ) P( A2 )P( B| A2 )
(. 7 )(. 2 )
(. 7 )(. 2 ) (. 3)(. 9)
= .34
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 52
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 53
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 54
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional
Events Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai)
A1 .7 .2
A2 .3 .9
1.0
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 55
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 56
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)
A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
.7 x .2
1.0
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 57
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 58
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2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 59
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)
A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
1.0 P(B) = .41
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 60
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
P( Ai B)
P( Ai | B)
P( B)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 61
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B) P(Ai |B)
A1 .7 .2 .14 .3415
A2 .3 .9 .27 .6585
1.0 P(B) = .41 1.0000
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
.14/.41
Slide 62
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
.40
.30
.20
.10
0 1 2 3 4
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 63
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A random variable is a numerical description of the
outcome of an experiment.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 64
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day,
where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 65
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Let x = number of customers arriving in one day,
where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 66
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Question Random Variable x Type
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 67
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The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 68
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two types of discrete probability distributions will
be introduced.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 69
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), that provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
f(x) = 1
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 70
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
There are three methods for assign probabilities to
random variables: classical method, subjective
method, and relative frequency method.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 71
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Number 80/200
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 72
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Graphical
.50 representation
of probability
.40 distribution
Probability
.30
.20
.10
0 1 2 3 4
Values
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights of Random
Reserved. May not beVariable x (TV
scanned, copied sales) Slide 73
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that
gives the probability function, f(x), for every value
of x is often used to describe the probability
distributions.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 74
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The discrete uniform probability distribution is the
simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 75
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
E(x) = = xf(x)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 76
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The variance summarizes the variability in the
values of a random variable.
Var(x) = 2 = (x - )2f(x)
expected number of
2015 Cengage Learning. TVs Reserved.
All Rights sold inMay
a day
not be scanned, copied
Slide 78
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
x x- (x - )2 f(x) (x - )2f(x)
0 -1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 -0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162 TVs
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784 squared
Variance of daily sales = 2 = 1.660
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 79
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A probability distribution involving two random
variables is called a bivariate probability distribution.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 80
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Benefits Job Satisfaction (y)
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 28 26 4 58
2 22 42 34 98
3 2 10 32 44
Total 52 78 70 200
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 81
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Benefits Job Satisfaction (y)
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 .14 .13 .02 .29
2 .11 .21 .17 .49
3 .01 .05 .16 .22
Total .26 .39 .35 1.00
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 82
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
x f(x) xf(x) x - E(x) (x - E(x))2 (x - E(x))2f(x)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 83
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y f(y) yf(y) y - E(y) (y - E(y))2 (y - E(y))2f(y)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 84
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
s f(s) sf(s) s - E(s) (s - E(s))2 (s - E(s))2f(s)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 86
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
x 0.5051 0.7107038
y 0.6019 0.7758221
xy
xy xy 0.276776 0.526095
x y
0.526095
xy 0.954
0.7107038(0.7758221)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 87
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 89
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
n!
f (x) p x (1 - p )( n - x )
x !(n - x )!
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n! = n(n 1)(n 2) .. (2)(1)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 90
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n!
f (x) p x (1 - p )( n - x )
x !(n - x )!
Probability of a particular
Number of experimental
sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly
with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 91
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2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 92
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2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 93
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Experimental Probability of
Outcome Experimental Outcome
(S, F, F) p(1 p)(1 p) = (.1)(.9)(.9) = .081
(F, S, F) (1 p)p(1 p) = (.9)(.1)(.9) = .081
(F, F, S) (1 p)(1 p)p = (.9)(.9)(.1) = .081
Total = .243
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Slide 94
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Using the
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1 probability
function
n!
f ( x) p x (1 - p ) (n - x )
x !( n - x )!
3!
f (1) (0.1)1 (0.9)2 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 - 1)!
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Slide 95
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Using a tree diagram
1st Worker 2nd Worker 3rd Worker x Prob.
L (.1) 3 .0010
Leaves (.1)
S (.9) 2 .0090
Leaves
(.1) L (.1) 2 .0090
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 1 .0810
L (.1) 2 .0090
Leaves (.1)
Stays S (.9) 1 .0810
(.9) L (.1)
1 .0810
Stays (.9)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 96
S part.
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in (.9) 0 .7290
Statisticians have developed tables that give
probabilities and cumulative probabilities for a
binomial random variable.
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Slide 97
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p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
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Slide 98
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Expected Value
E(x) = = np
Variance
Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)
Standard Deviation
np(1 - p )
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Example: Evans Electronics
Expected Value
Variance
Standard Deviation
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Slide 100
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A Poisson distributed random variable is often
useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space
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Slide 101
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Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:
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1. The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.
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Slide 103
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x e-
f ( x)
x!
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
= mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
x! = x(x 1)(x 2) . . . (2)(1)
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Since there is no stated upper limit for the number
of occurrences, the probability function f(x) is
applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, without limit.
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Slide 105
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Slide 106
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Using the
probability
= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4 function
3 4 (2.71828)-3
f (4) .1680
4!
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Slide 107
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Poisson Probabilities
0.25
0.20
Probability
Actually,
0.15
the sequence
0.10 continues:
11, 12, 13
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number
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May not Arrivals in 30 Minutes
scanned, copied
Slide 108
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A property of the Poisson distribution is that
the mean and variance are equal.
= 2
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Slide 109
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=2=3
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Slide 110
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The hypergeometric distribution is closely related
to the binomial distribution.
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Slide 111
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r N - r
x n - x
f ( x)
N
n
where: x = number of successes
n = number of trials
f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
N = number of elements in the population
r = number of elements in the population
labeled success
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Slide 112
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r N -r
x n-x
f (x) for 0 < x < r
N
n number of ways
n x failures can be selected
number of ways from a total of N r failures
x successes can be selected in the population
from a total of r successes
in the population number of ways
n elements can be selected
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be scanned, copied of size N
Slide 113
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The probability function f(x) on the previous slide
is usually applicable for values of x = 0, 1, 2, n.
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Slide 114
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Slide 115
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Using the
probability
function
r N - r 2 2 2! 2!
1
x n - x 2 0 2!0! 0!2!
f ( x ) .167
N 4 4! 6
n
2
2!2!
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Slide 116
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Mean
r
E ( x) n
N
Variance
r r N - n
Var ( x) n 1 -
2
N N N - 1
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Slide 117
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Mean
r 2
n 2 1
N 4
Variance
2 2 4 - 2 1
2 1 -
2
.333
4 4 4 - 1 3
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Slide 118
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Consider a hypergeometric distribution with n trials
and let p = (r/n) denote the probability of a success
on the first trial.
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Slide 120
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