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Introduction to Probability
Experiment:An experiment is a process that produces outcomes.
Ex. Tossing of a coin is an experiment.
Interviewing 20 randomly selected consumers and asking them
which brand of appliances they prefer.
Bayes Rule
If P(Y) 0
P( X i ) P(Y X i )
P( X i Y )
P( X 1 ) P(Y X 1 ) P( X 2 ) P(Y X 2 ) ... P( X n ) P(Y X n )
Here denominator is a product expression for every partition in the sample space Y.
Exercise 4.31.
Alex, Alicia, and Juan fill orders in the fast food restaurant. Alex incorrectly
fills 20% of the orders he takes. Alicia incorrectly fills 12% orders she takes.
Juan incorrectly fills 5% of the orders he takes. Alex fills 30% of the orders,
Alicia fill 45% of all orders and Juan fills 25% of all orders. An order has just
been filled.
a. What is the probability that Alicia filled the order?
b. If the order was filled by Juan, what is the probability that it was filled
correctly?
c. Who filled the order is unknown, but the order was filled incorrectly. What
are the revised probabilities that Alex, Alicia, or Juan filled the order?
d. Who filled the order is unknown, but the order was filled correctly. What are
the revised probabilities that Alex, Alacia, or Juan filled the order?
4.40. In a certain city, 30% of the families have Master Card, 20% have an
American Express Card, and 25% have a Visa card. Eight percent of the families
have both a Master Card an American Express card. Twelve percent have both a
Visa card and a master card. Six percent have both an Americal Express card
and a Visa Card.
a. What is the probability of selecting a family that has either a Visa card or an
American Express card?
b. If a family has a Master card, what is the probability that it has a Visa card?
c. If a family has a Visa card, what is the probability that it has a master card?
d. Is possession of a Visa card independent of possession of a Master card? Why or
why not?
e. Is possession of an American Express Card mutually exclusive of possession of
a Visa card?
4.11
Q. Suppose that 47% of all Americans have own in an airplane
at least once and that 28% of all Americans have ridden on a
train at least once. What is the probabilitythat a randomly selected
American has either ridden on a train or own inan airplane? Can
this problem be solved? Under what conditions can it be solved?
If the problem cannot be solved, what information is needed to
make it solvable?
4.22
Q. The U.S. Energy Department states that 60% of all U.S. households have ceiling
fans. In addition, 29% of all U.S. households have an outdoor grill. Suppose 13% of
all U.S. households have both a ceiling fan and an outdoor grill. A U.S. house-hold is
randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that the household has a ceiling fan or an outdoor grill?
b. What is the probability that the household has neither a ceiling fan nor an
outdoor grill?
a. What is the probability that the household does not have a ceiling fan and does
have an outdoor grill?
a. What is the probability that the household does have a ceiling fan and does not
have an outdoor grill?