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HOW TO GET SCIENCE?

Logic

Deductive

Library Rationally world Prediction

Science
Empirical world Hypothesis

Inductive Hypothesis Testing

Statistics Methods
analysis Facts
 HYPOTHESIS

Scientific methods:
describes problem defines hypothesis

HYPOTHESIS
Hypo = under; thesis = truth

Temporary conclusion towards problems

which is needed to prove
Is hypothesis always needed ?
Survey, explorative and case study (descriptive)
usually hypothesis is not needed

Mostly, the purpose of medical research is to know

the relation between variables

hypothesis is important
 Theory : the data which is composed systematically
as a conclusion that apply generally
is needed as a general guide

Concept: a thought or an abstraction of a certain

comprehension towards phenomenon which is
formulated generally
not measurable

broken down into variable measurable

Hypothesis: - is derived from concept - theory

- is needed to explain towards problem
HYPOTHESIS
A prediction or reference which is described and
accepted for a moment, that can explain the facts
observed, and can be used as a guide to do research
(Good and Scates, 1954)
Some temporary explanation about the facts which
can be observed (Trelease, 1960)
The statement that it predicts the relation between
two or more variables (Kerlinger, 1973)
Hypothesis function
1. To verify the truth of theory
2. Gives idea to extend theory
3. Widen knowledge about the phenomenon
which is observed
Hypothesis benefits

1. Gives the limitation towards scope and research working

2. Reminds about condition of the fact and the relation
between the facts which is observed
3. As a simple tool to focus the facts into unity
4. As a guidance to do verification process
Good Hypothesis
1. is described in declarative sentence that is clear and
the simple one
2. has strong theoritical base or concept
3. possible to be tested empirically
4. should be specific and show the variables that will be
measured
5. declare the relation between one independent
variable and one or more dependent variables
6. is described before start the research (quantitative
research)
Good hypothesis are affected by:

Smart observation of the researcher

Imagination and creative thinking of the researcher
Analysis framework which is used
Methods and design which is choosen
 HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION

Do your question needs to know

the solving/answer of the problems?
No, just to know the problems
Yes, I want to solve it need to formulate hypothesis

e.g.
PROBLEM : why the heartbeat of the patient
100 per minute?
HYPOTHESIS : hyperthyroidism is the probable
etiology of tachicardia

A question, by its very nature, demands an answer

What is hypothesis
Hypothesis (theoretical meaning)
1. Incomplete or has not establish (hypo), in term of truth
still need to verify
2. The most probably answer / explanation of the problem
3. Theoretical conclusion derived from literature study
4. Its a intellectual prediction is needed for experimental
and observational analytic research
Hypothesis (technical meaning)
Statements about variables / parameters will be tested its
validity empirically using the collected samples
may be:
correlational study
comparative study
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Is the answer to the problem questions true ?

If you want to verify, you need

A SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESIS TESTING:

FORMULATE the hypothesis
IDENTIFY AND FORMULATE the variables included in the
hypothesis
Choose the best and efficient way (DESIGN) to collect the
data based on your hypothesis
Choose the RIGHT METHODS TO ANALYSE AND
INTERPRET
Make the right CONCLUSION: the hypothesis is true or false
?
GOOD HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis should be developed through strong

theoritical base, experience, other strong scientific
resources

One hypothesis is only allowed for one independent

variable

Complicated hypothesis must be divided

Example :
Education level of mother has contribution role
towards growth and development of child

simple but it can not be tested by only

one hypothesis

Divided into 2 sub-hypothesis:

1. The education level of mother associated with the child growth
2. The education level of mother associated with child
development
 Formula is too general and more than one meaning
must be avoided:
Giving drug X can cure gastrointestenal function
disorder
which one of the gastrointestenal function
(digestion, absorbtion, atau excretion?)
BAD HYPOTHESIS:

The child who is never comunicated with adult people

will be experienced with severe mental retardation

it can not be tested empirically

Studying is not affect the students performance
from the data collected there was evidence that
students who did not study can be passed
the hypothesis was proved the conclusion is
studying is not useful

have destruction effect

(is because of bad hypothesis)
Based on Hypothesis Aspect

RESEARCH CAN BE DIVIDED INTO:

1. Hypothesis testing research
(deduction problem hypothesis
hypothesis testing answer of problem)
2. Hypothesis generating research
Hypothesis generating research
Using medical record data generates hypothesis
e.g. from the medical record, there are 3000 patients with
congenital heart disease generate a hypothesis

For verification process, should be used the other samples set

when the researcher using the same data (DATA DREDGING)

is outlaw
 Hypothesis types

1. Research Hypothesis
- is aimed to make a prediction about the occuring
phenomenon

e.g.
There is an influence of smoking towards
incidence of lung cancer
2. Statistical Hypothesis
- H null (Ho) & H alternative (Ha or H1)

Hypothesis testing using statistical analysis

Ho means there is no difference between ... and....
e.g. There is no difference between mortality rate
of heart disease in urban and rural
There is no relationship between smoking and
lung cancer
Ha means there is a difference / relationship
usually, it is the research hypothesis
 Hypothesis testing
Is a statistical pocedure to show the validity of the
hypothesis
Its needed due to the research is done at the samples
(not at population), while researcher want to generalize the
reasearch conclusion towards population

Hypothesis testing is done by Ho statement

Is it enough evidence (by facts) to refuse Ho, and
that so Ha will be achieved ?

Interpretated through p (probability) value

there is the probability to do mistake of hypothesis
testing
 Error type I ( = significance level):
- the probability when the result will apply to the
population (the chance to reject Ho in samples, but
Ho is correct in population)
- determined previously by researcher
- value: 0,5 ; 0,1; 0,05; 0,01

Error type II ( ):
- the chance to accept Ho but in fact the Ho
should be rejected

and value can be reduced by increasing samples

Types of error
Conclusion and The facts
Decision
Hypothesis is Hypothesis is
correct incorrect

Accept Hypothesis no error Error type II

()

Reject Hypothesis Error type I no error

( ) power of study
 VARIABLES

Is the characteristic of subject (not that subject) variously

e.g. type of sex, body weight, blood pressure
The types of variable is important due to related with data
collecting and analysis technique

Scale of variables
1. Categorical: nominal, and ordinal scale
2. Numerical : interval, and ratio scale
Type of variables (based on its function)
1. Independent & Dependent Variable
independent variable (risk, predictor, causa):
- its change will alter other variable
dependent variabel (effect, outcome, event):
- variable which will be changed caused by changing
of independent variable

e.g :
Treatment by drug A decreases blood pressure
iv dv
Cholesterol level different between male student and
female student
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 One type variable may has different function based
on the research content
example:

Heredity
Salt
consumption Hypertension Death in elderly
Smokes
Obesity

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2. Confounding variable
Is the variable which has association with dependent
var. and also with independent variabel but its not an
intermediate variable
Identify toward confounder is important, since it causes
wrong result.
it can be concluded there is an association
between the variables but actually threre is no
association (spurious association)

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Relationship between variables
E
Outside var.
Independent Var.
Dependent Var.
=Treatment
= Effect
= Causa
=Regressed
= Regressor Interme =Outcome
=Predictor diate var = Event
= Risk
= Respons

Outside var.
Confounding Outside var.
A D
Variabel
Outside var.
Outside var.
B
C

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 Variables

A Independ var Interm var iable Dependent var

confounding

Dependent var
B Independ var V

Not confounding

C Independ var Dependent

var V

Relationship among independent, dependent, confounding

variabel 32
 Confounder

Coffee consume CHD

Smoking

May be there is wrong association between coffee

consume with CHD when the researher dont care
about smoking
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 Confounder

Eat candy Dental carries

Brushing
teeth

The relation between candy and evidence of dental

carries can be hidden because of child who like candy
also be keen on brushing their teeth

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Thank you