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Priyanka. Manve
4th sem M.Tech[CSE] Under the guidance of :
USN-1JB13SCS10 Dr.Srikantaiah K C
Professor
Dept of CSE
SJBIT,Bangalore
Agenda
Introduction
Experimental Dataset
Literature Survey
Objectives
Data homogeneity test
Methodology
Results
References
Introduction
Rainfall data play the most important role to a variety of hydrological models (stream flow,
rainfall runoff) and environmental models (crop yield estimates, drought risk and severity).
These models fundamentally require the complete and reliable rainfall data records. Therefore
estimating missing rainfall data is an important task in hydrology
Precipitation: Precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that
falls under gravity. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, sleet, snow and hail
storm. The most general form of precipitation is rain.
Sabotage (terrorism)
Human related problems (temporary absence of people in charge of reading gauges, mistakes in
Others
EXPERIMENTAL DATASET
For the present study Bangalore urban region is considered as the study area. The data of
monthly rainfall of about 36 years (1975-2011) were selected measured over 5 stations of
which four stations surrounding Bangalore Obsy are considered as index stations. The 5
Rain in
stations which are considered for the study are Year Month Day
mm
1. Bangalore OBSY 1975 5 3 3.5
1975 5 12 4.5
2. Attibele
: : : :
3. Jigani 1976 4 23 17.8
4. Kengeri : : : :
5. Hebbal MRS : : : :
2011 11 26 3.4
The aim of this study is to estimate missing precipitation of Bangalore Obsy and compare
the predicted results with observed data.
Literature Survey
De Silva R.P has compared a few methods used for the estimation of missing
rainfall data in Sri Lankan context.
The methods studied were Arithmetic Mean (Local Mean) method, Normal
Ratio method, Inverse Distance method gauging and Aerial Precipitation Ratio
method.
Monthly rainfall data of each station were estimated using the data of surrounding
stations, so that actual data and the estimated data can be compared.
These comparisons include Descriptive Statistics of Error, Root Mean Square Error,
Mean Absolute Percentage of Error and Correlation Coefficient.
Sadatinejad,S.J proposed fuzzy regression method that has been used to reconstruct
the hydrologic data.
The credited omission method was used in investigation by omitting the observed data
deliberately and their values were estimated using the different methods.
The results showed that the best methods of reconstructing monthly discharge data for the
hydrometric stations in the great Karoon River basin in order of accuracy are artificial
neural network, simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, normal ratio, fuzzy
regression, autoregressive and graphical methods FR method is not a suitable method for
reconstruction of monthly discharge data in the studied river basin.
Statistical index of root mean squared error (RMSE) the best method of reconstruction
was determined.
Objectives
The objectives of this project are:
Year/Month
Data homogeneity test.
Jigani Corrected of Jigani
Cumulative
Month = June
Average of all stations Cumulative of all
stations
Double
2000 Mass Curve is used to test the consistency of rainfall
Non linear
1975/June
record A A
at any rain gauge A1 is suspected to contain
station which A1
certain Bdiscrepancies.
1976/June A+B B1 A1+B1
A1500 certain
1977/June C number
A+B+C of stations C1 with reliable A1+B1+C1
data of
June
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
If two precipitation gages have long records of annual precipitation i.e. y1,y2. yn and
x1,x2,.xn .The precipitation of missing data is based on a simple linear regression model.
The model can be written as :
Where
The least square is given by the formula
1 0 62.7
Matrix Inverse Calculation by
62.5 66.30878476
application of business 1
1
0
0
31.5
20.2
47.8
Row-Reduction Technique
36
38.98854075
29.09370878
Yestimate = 0 + 1 X1 + 2 X2 1
1
1
1
3.7
54.3
15.5
57.2
19.3470708
63.65490244
1 1 26 52.1 38.87404008
1 1 87.2 88 92.46374949
1 1 48 52.6 58.13831471
1 1 5.6 28.2 21.01080361
Fuzzy Linear Regression
Fuzzy logic is a logic which deals with vague or imprecise information and
its ultimate goal is to provide foundations for approximate reasoning using
imprecise propositions based on fuzzy set theory.
The value of the regression equation can be expressed as:
The general fuzzy linear model can be expressed in the matrix form as:
Where
To obtain regression parameters
Fuzzy Estimators
t/2 = [0.000 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.71 31.82 63.66];
Where, a11 is the first element along the main diagonal of matrix A.
Similarly the (1- ) 100% Confidence intervals of the regression co-efficients are found.
In the t distribution, to find the critical value t/2 , we use n-(k+1) degrees of freedom. Now put
these confidence intervals together, one on top of another, to get the fuzzy estimators X1^, X2^ .
.. of X1, X2,... respectively.
By placing Confidence Intervals one on top of another, the- cuts are obtained and hence the
membership functions of the regression coefficients are obtained.
Root Mean Square Error and
Percentage Error
It is a frequently used measure of the differences between values predicted
by a model or an estimator and the values actually observed. Basically, the
RMSD represents the sample standard deviation of the differences between
predicted values and observed values.
Where Oi stands for observed values and Pi stands for values predicted by
the missing data methodology.
Normal Ratio Method Estimate of Bangalore Observatory
1980 1991 1996
Results
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
Residual
200
Analysis: 200 200
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Inverse Distance Method Estimate of Bangalore Observatory
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Simple Linear Regression Estimate of Bangalore Observatory
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Multiple Linear Regression Estimate of Bangalore Observatory
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Fuzzy Linear Regression Estimate of Bangalore Observatory
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Root Mean Square Errors
Year 1980 Year 1991 Year 1996
80 80 80
60 60 60
RMSE
RMSE
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR
60 60 60
RMSE
RMSE
RMSE
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR NRM IDM SLR MLR FLR
Simple Linear Regression with yearly average (Bangalore OBSY)
1980 1991 1996
500
Real Data
Predicted(SLR2)
600
500
Real Data
Predicted(SLR2)
600
500
Real Data
Predicted(SLR2)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
For
200
completeness rainfall
200
prediction is200preformed on
all100 stations by simple 100
linear regression100in which
0 0 0
average0 1 2 yearly
3 4 5 6rainfall
7 0 is1 used
2 3 4 as 5 independent
6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
0 1 2 3 variable
4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Simple Linear Regression with yearly average (Kengeri)
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Simple Linear Regression with yearly average (Attibele)
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Simple Linear Regression with yearly average (Hebbal)
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Simple Linear Regression with yearly average (Jigani)
1980 1991 1996
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall in mm
Rainfall in mm
400 400 400
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6) Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Rainfall prediction of monsoon months of year 2011
1991 using 36
2001
2006 16 years data from 1975 to 2010
26
31 1990
2001
2005
Real Data
600 Normal Ratio Method
Inverse Distance Method
Rainfall prediction
Simple Linear Regression
Multiple Linear Regression
500
300
200
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monsoon months from May to October (index 1 to 6)
Conclusion
In this study the efficiency of various regression techniques are compared by their
root mean square error. There by suggesting the suitable technique for the selected
location. The Missing Monthly Precipitation data for the years 1991, 2001, 2006 and
2011 at Bangalore (Obsy) was predicted using the monthly precipitation data five
index stations in the homogenous meteorological area using different methods.
From the results of the study carried out the following conclusions are drawn:
Monsoon months precipitation values are predicted for the year 1991, 2001,
2006 and 2011 using different methods and it was observed that the highest
rainfall has occurred in the month of October and lowest rainfall in the month of
July.
The result observed in residual analysis tells that MLR and FLR methods are
more suitable to the study area when compared to other methods. Though in
prediction of missing data (deliberately missed) tells that NRM is better than
MLR and FLR. But reliability of NRM will be too less if any of the independent
variables is incorrect or erroneous. MLR and FLR models will be highly reliable
because the model is developed considering historical information.
References
1. R. P. De Silva1, N.D.K. Dayawansa1 and M. D. Ratnasiri , A Comparison Of Methods Used In Estimating Missing Rainfall Data,The
Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2007, vol.3, no.2 ,2007
2. Abebe, A, J.Solomantine, and Vennekar.R, Application Of Adaptive Fuzzy leased Models For Reconstruction Of Missing Precipitation
Events Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45:3, 425-436, 2000.
3. Bhavani, R., Comparison of mean and weighted annual rainfall In Anantapuram District, International Journal of Innovative Research
in Science, Engineering and Technology Vol. 2, Issue 7, 2013
4. Gianmarco, Tardivo and Antonio, Berti., Comparison of Four Methods To Fill The Gaps In Daily Precipitation Data Collected By A
Dense Weather network, Science Journal of Environmental Engineering Research, ISSn: 2276-7695,2013.
5. Jesada, Kajornrit, Kok Wai Wong, and Chun Che Fung A Comparitive Analysis of Soft Computing Techniques Used to Estimate Missing
Precipitation Records, School of Information Technology, Murdoch Unversity ,South Street, Murdoch, western Austrialia, 6150,2012
6. Jose, D, and Salas, A Comparison Of Methods Used In Estimating Missing Rainfall Data, The Journal of Agriculture Sciences, vol 3, no
1,2006
7. Sadatinejad, S, J, Shayannejad, M and Honarbakhsh, A, Investigation of the Efficiency of the Fuzzy Regression Method in
Reconstructing Monthly Discharge Data of Hydrometric Stations in Great Karoon River Basin, The Journal of Agriculture
Sciences, Vol. 11: 111-119,2009
8. Nourani, V, Baghanam, A, H and Gebremicheal. M Investigating the Ability of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) Models to Estimate
Missing Rain-gauge Data, Journal of Environmental Informatics, 19(1) 38-50,2012.