Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CHAPTER 20
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
The balance of payments is a record of a countrys financial transactions with the rest of the
world over a period of time
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
20.2
ECONOMIC GROWTH
High rates of growth are not desirable as they tend to result in slumps
A slump takes place when production is at its lowest, unemployment is high and there are
many business failures
ECONOMIC GROWTH
2. Evaluate the extent to which the economic data provided in the case study
represents excellent news for all UK businesses.
Growth was nearly 2% in annual terms
Wage rates are increasing less than 1% annually
THE BUSINESS CYCLE
A business cycle shows fluctuations in GDP over time and has four stages:
Recovery or upswing
Production and employment begin to rise
Consumers will generally spend more as confidence of job security is increased
Businesses may still be cautious but as confidence increases firms may start to invest in additional assets
Employees experience less difficulty in finding jobs and wages may begin to rise
Boom
High levels of production and expenditure by firms, consumers, and the government
Prosperity and confidence in the business community
Investment in assets is likely to increase
Many sectors will experience pressureskilled workers become scarce, competitors, etc.
Shortages and bottlenecks may occur due to insufficient raw materials to meet demand, raising prices
Rising wages and rising prices will create inflation, which typically leads to the end of the boom
THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Recession or downswing
Incomes and output start to fall
Recession exists when GDP has fallen for 2 successive 3 month periods (6 months)
Falling sales eat into businesses profits
Will likely delay plans to invest in new factories, offices, etc.
Level of production may stagnate or fall; spare capacity will rise
Governments may lower interest rates trying to stimulate demand and sales
Some businesses will fail and bankruptcies will rise
Slump
Often follows a recession
Production is at its lowest, unemployment is high, increasing number of firms suffer insolvency
THE EFFECTS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
2. To what extent does the information in this article represent good news for
businesses in Pakistan?
Rapid growth in GDP of around 4% exceeds IMFs forecasts. Should assist the government
in spending on education and infrastructure
The loan from the IMF can be used to improve infrastructure
BUSINESS STRATEGY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
The business cycle may only provoke short-term responses in many firms because its effects
are relatively short-lived
Booms and slumps dont last forever and businesses can take actions to see them through
difficult periods
During booms, managers may increase prices to restrict demand and increase profitability
May subcontract work to other firms and seek supplies from overseas
In recession or slump, lay-offs may occur or short-term working may take place
Overseas markets may be targeted to increase sales
Well-managed firms will predict the onset of a slump or boom and take appropriate action in
advance
If governments are successful in eradicating the more extreme effects of the business cycle,
short-term actions might be all that are required
REVIEW
What phase of the business cycle do wages go up? When will unemployment be at its lowest?
Upswing Boom
What phase of the business cycle do wages go When will business profits be the highest?
down?
Boom
Downswing
When should you look for a new job?
When are wages at their highest?
Upswing
Boom
When are wages at their lowest?
Slump
INFLATION
20.3
INFLATION
Inflation becomes a major problem when it is high, rising rapidly, or doing both
INFLATION
Inflation has been historically low for the past 15 years in many industrialized
nations
Venezuela is currently experiencing some of the worst inflation in history
HOW IS INFLATION MEASURED?
Introduced in 2003 and measures the average monthly change in the prices of
goods and services purchased by the households in that country
THE CAUSES OF INFLATION
Classified as:
Demand-Pull inflation occurs when the demand for the countrys goods and services
exceeds its ability to supply these products
Cost-Push inflation happens when firms face increasing costs due to rising wages or
increasing costs of raw materials and components
Occurs when demand for the countrys goods and services exceeds its ability to
supply these products
Prices generally rise to restrict demand to the available supply
The underlying cause might be due to the government cutting taxes or interest rates
Normally occurs at the boom stage
Shortages and bottlenecks occur in supply
Because resources and labor are relatively scarce, firms offer higher prices and
wages and this results in inflation
Governments will need to increase interest rates to prevent prices rising
COST-PUSH INFLATION
Occurs when firms face increasing costs due to factors such as rising wages or
increasing costs of raw materials and components
Can arise from:
Wage rises
If pay increases significantly above the rate of inflation, further prices rises may be the result
Becomes more likely if productivity doesnt increase
Imported inflation
A hidden cause of inflation is rises in import prices
Open economies that import large amounts of raw materials, components, and finished goods are
especially susceptible
Import prices rise when the exchange rate is falling and more domestic currency is required
Rising exchange rates help control inflation
CASE STUDY: COMPARING THE RATE OF INFLATION
IN CHINA AND RUSSIA
1. Explain the likely effects of Russias high rate of inflation on its businesses.
Businesses may lose price competitiveness on world markets
May be forced to accept lower profit margins if they are to compete with competitors
overseas
Unemployment exists when people are looking for work but are unable to find it
Occurs due to fundamental changes in the economy whereby some industries reach the end of
their lives
Adoption of new methods of production
Significant and permanent changes in demand
Increasing competition from overseas
Rising income levels meaning demand for some products declines
Occurs if a person leaves one job but is unable to move into a new position
immediately
Temporarily unemployed while searching for a new job
1. Explain the benefits that Australian businesses might receive from a net
inflow of migrants.
Growth in population will provide an enlarged workforce with a high proportion of younger
workers
May be highly skilled which has the potential to raise labor productivity
The main reason is to pay for goods and services bought from overseas
Firms purchasing products from abroad are expected to use the currency from the
exporting country
Tesco buys wine Francethe wine maker would expect Tesco to pay in Euros not Thai
Baht
Demand for foreign currencies may also arise because individuals and
businesses wish to invest in enterprises overseas
A Hong Kong citizen wishing to invest in Brunei would need Brunei dollars to complete the
transaction
THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES
Exchange rate changes are more of a problem in markets where fierce price
competition occurs
Demand is more likely to be price elastic
Businesses are under pressure to respond quickly to any change in exchange rates
Income and wealth are not equally distributed between the citizens of most
countries
Many societies include people with large amounts of wealth and those who are poor
Income is a regular flow of money
Wealth is a store of assets (i.e. savings, investment, property, etc.)
Redistribution is intended to deal with inequality
Governments may:
Impose taxes on income and wealth
Provide welfare benefits.
THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY
The power to set interest rates is typically given to the central bank of that
country
Rises in interest rates depress the level of economic activity
Reductions in interest rates promote an expansion of economic activity
Interest rates are the price of borrowed money
The precise rate of interest charged on a loan depends on several factors
Base rates set by central bank
Time period of the loan
Degree of risk attached to it
MONETARY POLICY
A larger increase from a low base rate will have significant impact
EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN INTEREST RATES
When interest rates can go no lower, a central banks only monetary policy is
to pump money into the economy directly
Buys financial assets, like government and corporate bonds using money it has simply
created
The institutions selling those assets will then have new money in their accounts
This boosts the money supply
The hope is that this money is then used to purchase goods and services which
boosts output and growth
FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal policy can help to stabilize the economy through automatic stabilizers
Avoids the worst effects of the business cycle
Examples:
Lower unemployment when economic activity is high means temporarily lower social
security spending and higher income tax receipts
Higher company profits generates higher tax receipts
Higher spending by consumers yields higher receipts from indirect taxes
Tax and expenditure policies can have immediate effects on the level of economic
activity
Precise effects will depend upon:
The types of tax altered
The nature of government expenditure
Direct taxes
Taxes on income and profits
Take larger amounts from individuals earning high salaries and companies making high profits
The government can forecast the effects arising from an increase/reduction in income tax
The implications for individual businesses vary according to the product
Luxury goods might be significantly affected by a change in income tax rates
Foodstuffs may be relatively unaffected
THE EFFECTS OF TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES
Indirect taxes
Includes VAT (value added tax) and duties
Classified as indirect
Can have a rapid effect on the level of economic activity
Its effects are difficult to predict
An increase in VAT may lower consumer spending, reducing demand in goods, and
lowering economic activity
The extent of fall in demand will depend upon price elasticity of demand
A side effect of increasing indirect taxes is that it is inflationary
THE EFFECTS OF TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES
2. Discuss how the Japanese authorities might use economic policies to ensure
that the economy continues to grow steadily over the next few years.
Ensure demand does not grow too quickly or inflation may damage economic performance.
Raising interest rates would help prevent this by controlling demand
Could use fiscal policy to manage level of demand
MARKET FAILURE
20.8
MARKET FAILURE
Governments can intervene in the economy for reasons other than adjusting
the level of economic activity
Market failure occurs when a market does not work properly and resources are not
allocated correctly
The failure of markets to work properly comes about for a number of reasons
Monopolies and cartels
Producers have too much power
Results in insufficient output and high prices
Consumers may receive too little of certain products, resulting in a lower standard of living
Damage to the environment
Producers dont bear the full costs of production
Society bears some of these costs (pollution)
These are called external costs
Can result in severe damage to the environment and can impose high costs on future
generations
Creates oversupply of certain products
MARKET FAILURE
Lack of information
Governments provide information about the benefits or drawbacks of products
Health information programs (i.e. campaigns on dangers of smoking, etc.)
Poaching of skilled labor
Difficult for any government
Governments can offer incentives for workers to stay
Providing training itself
Offering tax benefits to businesses providing training
Can be very costly