Viet Nam and Cambodia:

Security and Prospects

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to South East Asia Module
Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies
Weston Creek, June 21, 2017

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 Outline
• Aim: analyse the security situation and
future of Viet Nam (and Cambodia)
• What strategic opportunities and
challenges currently face Viet Nam?
• What is Viet Nam’s likely future?
• Viet-Nam-China relations (and relations
with the other major powers)?

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 Viet Nam:
Security and Prospects

Viet Nam

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Mekong Sub-
region Yunan
province
Cambodia
and Vietnam
are down
stream states
affected by
up stream
develop-
ments

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1. What strategic opportunities
and challenges currently face
Viet Nam?

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 Strategic Framework
• Multilaterialization and diversification of
relations; reliable friend and partner to all
– 7th National Party Congress (1991)
• Đối tác – cooperate/Đối tượng – struggle
– Resolution No. 8 (July 2003 revised 2013)
• Vừa hợp tác vừa đấu tranh (cooperation and
competition [struggle])
– 12TH Congress, January 2016
• Proactive international integration

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 Viet Nam: Opportunities
• Promote ASEAN unity and cohension
• Promote ASEAN community-building
– Political-Security, Economic, Socio-Cultural
• ASEAN Country Co-ordinator for India
(2015-18)
• Support ASEAN-centric multilateral
institutions
• Expand strategic partnerships
– Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
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 Viet Nam: Opportunities
• Regional economic integration
– Host APEC Summit 2017,
– Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP 11)
– Regional Comprehensive Econoimic
Partnershipn (RCEP)
• Strengthen regional security architecture
– ADMM Plus, EAMF, East Asia Summit
• Non-permanent member UN Security
Council 2020-21
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 Challenges
Democratic freedom,
religious freedom, and
human rights have been
abused by hostile forces to
undermine the great national
solidarity and to incite
violence and separatism in
some areas of the country…
disputes over sovereignty,
sovereign rights and
jurisdiction over the
territories in the East Sea…
non-traditional security
issues such as:
• Illegal drug and weapons
trafficking
• Piracy
• Transnational crime
• Terrorism
• Illegal immigration and
migration
• Environmental degradation
• Pandemics
• Climate change

Defence White Paper 2009, 17. 9

 2. Based on its national power
and strategic context what is Viet
Nam’s likely future in the region?

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 Viet Nam and the Region
• Increasingly important member of ASEAN
• Strategic partner with major powers
– Promote multipolar balance
– Maritme security
– Norms and international law
• Lower middle income country
– Modern industrial country by 2020
– Defence “self-help” linked to economy

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Strategic and
Comprehensive Russia
Partnershps 2001

USA India
2013 Viet 2006
Nam

China Japan
2009 2007
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Viet Nam World’s 8th Largest Importer
of Major Weapons, 2011–15

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,

Fact Sheet February 2016 13
 Force Modernisation

Su-30 MKK

Svetlyak-class Fast Attack Craft

S-300 PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) Gepard-class Guided

Missile Frigates
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 Force Modernisation

Vietnam has taken

delivery of six
Varshavyanka or
enhanced Kilo-class
submarines, 2013-2016
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3. What is the nature of Viet
Nam’s relationship with China
and how important is this
relationship?

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 Viet Nam-China Relations

• Normalisation of relations Nov. 1991

– post-Cambodia conflict (1978-91)
• 2008 – Strategic Partnership
• 2009 – Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership
• 2013 – Comprehensive Strategic
Cooperative Partnership
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China-Viet Nam Border Agreements
Land Border Agreement 1999 Tonkin Gulf Demarcation 2000

Fisheries Agreement
2000 – joint patrols

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Viet Nam’s Territorial Disputes with China
in the East Sea (South China Sea)

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Viet Nam’s Maritime Development
Strategy 2020

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HD 981 Crisis May-July 2014

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 average 6.1 per cent real growth to 2020, the Israeli SPYDER air defence system. In
according to the IMF. December, Vietnam unveiled the indigenously

Viet Nam Defence Budget

manufactured HS-6L high-altitude long-endurance
UAV.

*This budget figure is based on a single unverified source.

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 Viet Nam-China Post-2014
• Joint Steering Committee
– Deputy PMs who are also Politburo members
• High-level leadership exchanges
• Dense network of:
– Party-to-party relations
 Theoretical seminar series
– Government to government
– Military to military

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 Border Cooperation
• 1st Border Defence Friendship Exchange
Program 2014
– 2014-15 forty-nine joint land border patrols
• 2nd Border Defence Exchange May 2015
– 1st meeting by defence ministers
• 3rd Border Defence Exchange Mar 2016
– Defence ministers meet
• 4th Border Defence Exchange June 2017
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 Defence Cooperation
• UN Peacekeeping Operations
– Military Hospital 175/Level 2 Field Hospital
• Military Region 2-Chengdu Military Region
exchanges
• Young Officer Exchanges
• Personnel training
– Xi An Political Academy, China
• Political work in the military
• National defence industry – defence technology
• Military academic research

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 China is Viet Nam’s Laergest Trade Partner
$32.3
billion
deficit with
China
Viet Nam
China – US
Trade
$30.9
Relations
billion
surplus
with the US

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 Vietnam-Russian Federation
Strategic Partnership (2001)
Eight Areas of Cooperation
1.Political-diplomatic,
2.Military equipment and technology,
3.Oiland gas cooperation,
4.Energy cooperation for hydro and nuclear
power,
5.Trade and investment,
6.Science and technology,
7.Education and training, and
8.Culture and tourism

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 Vietnam and India
Strategic Partnership (2007)
• MOU Defence Cooperation
• Defence Strategy Dialogue
• Cooperation in national defence
– Navy, air defence, transfer of medium-size
warships, spare parts
• UN Peacekeeping training
• Naval port visits
• Submarine training
• Modernization of Nha Trang port

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 Vietnam-Japan
Strategic Partners 2009

• Extensive Strategic Partnership 2014

– 69 separate points
• 2015 Joint Vision Statement
• Largest provider of aid (ODA)
• Major trade partner
• 2nd largest exporter/4th largest importer
• Assistance to Viet Nam Coast Guard
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 Viet Nam-US Comprehensive
Partnership (2013)
• Joint Vision Statement on Defense Cooperation
(June 2015)
• Joint Vision Statement -President Obama and
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong (July 2015)
• Joint Statement between President Tran Dai Quang
and President Obama (May 2016)
• ITAR (srms sales) restrictions removed
• Joint Statement President Trump and PM Nxuiyen
Xuan Phuc (May 2017)
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 Cambodia:
Security and Prospects

Cambodia

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 Cambodia
• Opportunities
– Create stable democracy
– Become constructive member of ASEAN
– Improve relations with Thailand
• Challenges
– Domestic political stability - 2018
– Lessening dependence on China
– Improving relations with the United States

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economy is forecast to average 7.2 per cent anti-aircraft guns. Cambodia relies heavily on
real growth to 2020, according to the IMF. China for military aid and capability
procurement.
Cambodia Defence Budget

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Overlapping Claims Offshore

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 Future Role in Region

• ASEAN mendicant
• Minimal regional role
– Chinese surrogate
– Spoiler of ASEAN unity
• Dependent on Mekong Sub-region
• Contributor to UN Peacekeeping Missions

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 Cambodia-China Relations
• Long-term cooperation agreement (2000)
• high-level exchanges including defence ministers
• MOU defence cooperation (2003)
• Military training and equipment
• Donation of 15 patrol boats (2005 and 2007)
• Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation
(April 2006) raisied to Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership for Cooperation (2010)
• Economy – China dominant – trade, investment

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 Cambodia-China Relations
• China is Cambodia’s largest trade,
investment and aid partner
– Resources & infrastructure
– Non-interference in internal affairs
• Cambodia is supportive of Chinese foreign
policy especially in South China Sea
• Royal Cambodian Armed Forces
dependent on Chinese assistance

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 Vietnam and Cambodia:
Strategic Situation and Prospects

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au

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