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Normal Distribution &

Inferential Statistics
Normal Distribution
o The most important continuous probability distribution in the
entire field of statistics.

o Its graph, called the normal curve - describes approximately


many phenomenon that occur in nature, industry and research.

o Abraham DeMoivre ( 1733) developed the mathematical


equation of the normal curve.

o Often referred to as the Gaussian distribution, in honor of Karl


Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855), who also derived its equation
from a study of errors in repeated measurements of the same
quantity.
Normal Distribution
o In probability theory, the normal (or Gaussian or Gauss or
Laplace–Gauss) distribution is a very common continuous
probability distribution.

o Normal distributions are important in statistics

o Used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-


valued random variables whose distributions are not known.

- A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be


normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
Normal Distribution
o The normal distribution is useful because of the central limit
theorem.

o In its most general form, it states that averages of samples


of observations of random variables independently drawn
from independent distributions converge in distribution to
the normal, that is, become normally distributed when the
number of observations is sufficiently large.

o The normal distribution is sometimes informally called the


bell curve. However, many other distributions are bell-
shaped (such as the Cauchy, Student's t, and logistic
distributions).
Properties of a normal distribution

o It is a bell-shaped curved.

o The mean, mode, and median are all equal.

o The normal distribution is unimodal.

o The curve is symmetric at the center.

o The curve never touches the x- axis

o Exactly half of the values are to the left of center and exactly half
the values are to the right.

o The total area under the curve is 1.


Properties of a normal distribution

o The normal curve represents a normal distribution. The


total area under the normal curve logically represents
the sum of all probabilities for a random variable.

o The area under the normal curve is one.

o The shape and position of the normal distribution curve


depends on mean and standard deviation

o Many continuous variables have distributions that are


bell-shaped and are called approximately normally
distributed variables.
The standard normal curve

The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution


with a mean 0 and a standard deviation of 1. All normally
distributed variables can be transformed into the standard
normally distributed variable by using the formula for the
standard score:

x
z

The standard normal curve
The standard normal curve

Example 1:

If mean of a given data for a random value is 81.1 and standard


deviation is 4.7, then find the probability of getting a value more than
83.
The standard normal curve
Solution:

Standard deviation, σ = 4.7


43–81.1
83 40
Mean, Mean μ = 81.1
z  1.5
Expected value, X = 83 2
4.7

Z = 0.404255
Looking up the z-score in the z-table, 0.6700.

Hence, probability (1−0.6700)(1−0.6700) = 0.330.33.


The standard normal curve
Example 2:
The standard normal curve
The standard normal curve
The standard normal curve
Application of
Normal Distribution

1. A certain type of storage battery lasts, on average, 3.0


years with a standard deviation of 0.5 year. Assuming that the
battery lives are normally distributed, find the probability that a
given battery will last less than 2.3 years.
Application of
Normal Distribution

x 2.3  3.0


z   1.4
 0.5
Application of
Normal Distribution

P( Z  1.4)  0.0808

 8.08%
Application of
Normal Distribution

2. An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a


life, before burnout, that is normally distributed with mean 800
hours and a standard deviation of 40 hours. Find the probability
that a bulb burns between 778 and 834 hours
Application of
Normal Distribution

x
z

Application of
Normal Distribution
Application of
Normal Distribution

3. Gauges are used to reject all components where a certain


dimension is not within the specification 1.50±d. It is known that
this measurement is normally distributed with mean 1.50 and
s.d. 0.2. Determine d such that the specifications “cover” 95% of
the measurement.
Application of
Normal Distribution
Application of
Normal Distribution

4. A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a


mean resistance of 40 Ω and a standard deviation of 2 Ω. It is
assumed that the resistance follows a normal distribution.
What percentage of resistors will have a resistance exceeding 43
Ω if:

(a) the resistance can be measured to any degree of accuracy.

(b) the resistance can be measured to the nearest ohm only.


Application of
Normal Distribution
(a)
x 43  40
z z  1.5
 2

P( X  43)  P( Z  1.5)  1  P( Z  1.5)  1  0.9332  0.0668

 6.68%
Application of
Normal Distribution

(b)
x 43.5  40
z z  1.75
 2

P( X  43.5)  P( Z  1.75)  1  P ( Z  1.75)  1  0.9599  0.0401  4.01%

As many as 6.68%–4.01% = 2.67% of


the resistors will be accepted although
the value is greater than 43 Ω due to
measurement limitation
Statistics

hDescriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics

-Deals with the use of -Deals with the estimates


single measures to of the population values
describe a set of data or called parameters and to
distribution such as make statements about
measures of central computed statistics
tendency and measures of acceptable to some
variability. degree of confidence
Inferential Statistics
• Statistical Inference is the process of using
data analysis to deduce properties of an
underlying probability distribution. Analysis
of inferential statistics infers properties of a
population.
• Example: testing hypotheses and
deriving estimates. It is assumed that the
observed data set is sampled from a larger
population.
Standard Error

oThe standard error of the distribution of the mean


is denoted by SE( X )

oThe formula for obtaining the standard error of


the sample is given by the formula:

S
SE ( x ) =
n
Standard Error

oThe acceptability error of the distribution of the


mean is determined by the magnitude of the
standard error. Furthermore, the formula
indicates that the magnitude of standard error of
the distribution of the mean is dependent on two
measures. These are:
1. Standard deviation
2. Sample size
Standard Error

Example:

Find SEM of a sample distribution whose standard


deviation is 38 and sample size is 45.

Using the formula:

S
SE ( x ) =
n
Standard Error

Given that s = 38 and n = 45


Standard Error

Calculate standard error of the mean for the


following data :
14, 8, 11, 12, 16, 10

Solution : 14, 8, 11, 12, 16, 10


Standard Error
Standard Error
Sample Size Determination

• The sample size obtained by probability sampling


can be determined by using Slovin’s formula
given as:
Where :
N
n= n = sample size
N = total number of population
1 + Ne² e = margin of error

Margin of error : range of values below and above the sample of


statistic in a confidence interval
Confidence interval : shows uncertainty in a certain statistics
Sample Size Determination

Example :

N=1000 and e=0.05

N
n=
1 + Ne²

n = 1000 / (1 + 1000 * 0.5²)


n = 1000 / (1 + 250)
n = 3.984063745
= 4 samplings
Sample Size Determination

• Suppose that you have a group of 1,000 city government


employees and you want to survey them to find out which
tools are best suited to their jobs. You decide that you are
happy with a margin of error of 0.05. Using Slovin's formula,
you would be required to survey:

• n = N / (1 + Ne^2)

n = 1 000 / (1 + 1 000 * 0.05 * 0.05)


= 286
Sample Size Determination
A researcher plans to conduct a survey. If the population on High
City is 1,000,000 , find the sample size if the margin of error
is 25%

First : Convert the Margin Error 25% by dividing it to 100


Given:
N = 1,000,000
e = 25% = 0.025

n = 1,000,000/(1 + 1,000,000 ·0.025² )


n = 1,000,000/(1 + 1,000,000 · 0.000625 )
n = 1,000,000/(1 + 625 )
n = 1,000,000/626
n = 1597.44 or approx. 1597

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