Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Jeffrey Frankel
Harpel Chair, Harvard University
IMF Institute
* May 28, 2010 * Professor Jeffrey Frankel
Topics to be covered
I. Classifying countries by exchange rate regime
• De facto vs. de jure
• The approaches used to infer de facto regimes
II. Advantages of fixed rates
• The trade-promoting effect of currency unions: the € case
FLEXIBLE CORNER
INTERMEDIATE REGIMES
FIXED CORNER
• basket peg
• weights can be either transparent
•or secret
• crawling peg
• pre-announced (e.g., tablita)
• indexed (to fix real exchange rate)
• adjustable peg
(escape clause, e.g., contingent
on terms of trade or reserve loss)
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
De jure regime de facto
as is by now well-known
Sample: 47 countries. From Frankel, ADB, 2004. Table 3, prepared by M. Halac & S.Schmukler.
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
Shambaugh (2007) finds the same thing:
the de facto classification schemes tend to agree with each
other even less than they agree with the de jure scheme.
Percentage agreement of methodologies to code who pegs
De
Jay S. LY-S R-R
Jure
De
100%
Jure
Jay S. 86% 100%
LY-S 74% 80% 100%
R-R 81% 82% 73% 100%
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
The IMF now has its own “de facto classification”
-- but still close to official IMF one: correlation (BOR, IMF) = .76
Bénassy-Quéré et al (2004)
• Define
EMP = Δ value of currency + Δ reserves.
– EMP represents shocks in currency demand.
– Flexibility can be estimated
as the propensity of the central bank to let shocks show
up in the price of the currency (floating) ,
vs. the quantity of the currency (fixed),
or in between (intermediate exchange rate regime).
Difficulty #2:
Those papers sometimes impose the choice
of the major currency around which the country
in question defines its value (often the $).
• It would be better to estimate endogenously whether the
anchor currency is the $, the €, some other currency, or
some basket of currencies.
Difficulty #4:
All these approaches, even the synthesis technique, are
plagued by the problem that many countries frequently
change regimes or (for those with intermediate regimes)
change parameters.
Application to RMB:
Eichengreen (06), Ogawa (06), F & Wei (07)
35
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
Results of CFA experiment
2) Encourage investment
<= cut currency premium out of interest rates
[ii] E.g., Rose & van Wincoop (2001); Tenreyro & Barro (2003). Survey: Baldwin (2006)
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
Evidence on currency unions
Currency unions
• promote trade/GDP (no evidence of trade-diversion), &
• thereby promote LR growth. -- Frankel & Rose, QJE, 2002.
1. Monetary independence
2. Automatic adjustment to trade shocks
3. Retain seignorage
4. Retain Lender of Last Resort ability
5. Avoiding crashes that hit pegged rates.
(This is an advantage especially if origin of speculative attacks
is multiple equilibria, not fundamentals.)
• dollarization
(e.g, Panama, El Salvador, Ecuador)
• monetary union
(e.g., EMU, 1999)
Regarding credibility:
• a desperate need to import monetary stability, due to:
- history of hyperinflation,
- absence of credible public institutions,
- location in a dangerous neighborhood, or
- large exposure to nervous international investors
• a desire for close integration with a particular neighbor or trading partner
• Bilateral Data
– Ratha and Shaw (2005), in the absence of hard bilateral data,
allocate the totals across partners.
– Schiopu & Siegfried (2006) created bilateral data set between
some EU countries & neighbors.
– Jiménez-Martin, Jorgensen, & Labeaga (2007) estimate bilateral
workers’ remittance flows from all 27 members of the EU.
– Lueth & Ruiz-Arranz (2006, 2008) have largest bilateral data set
to date.
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
Literature review: cyclicality of remittances
• Evidence on cyclicality
– World Bank: p.c. remittances respond significantly to home country p.c.income.
– Clarke & Wallstein (2004) & Yang (2007): receipts rise in response to natural disaster.
– Kapur (2003): they go up in response to an economic downturn.
– Lake (2006): remittances into Jamaica respond to the US-local income difference
– Yang and Choi (2007): they respond to rainfall-induced economic fluctuations.
– IMF finds less countercyclicality.
• Sayan (2006): 12-developing-country study finds no countercyclicaty.
• Lueth & Ruiz-Arranz (2006, 2008): similarly.
• Evidence on the Dutch Disease.
– On the one hand, Rajan & Subramanian (2005): although the Dutch Disease analogy
does extend to foreign aid (leading to real appreciation & slow growth), it does not
extend to remittances.
– On the other hand, Amuendo-Dorantes & Pozo (2004): an increase in remittances to
LACA countries leads to real appreciation, a major symptom of Dutch Disease.
• OCA
– Singer (2008): counter-cyclical remittances are a determinant of the currency decision.
Professor Jeffrey Frankel
“Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?
Implications for…Currency Unions” -- Frankel (Oct. 2009)
• For Central American receiving countries (incl. DR, El Salvador & Panama)
I find strong evidence of countercyclicality.
border/language/
border/language
islands/colonial
Instrumental variables
Observations 331 328 328 328
R2 0.526 0.546 0.463 0.351
Statistical significance: * 10% level, ** 5% level, *** 1% level
Three sources of remittance data for 2003-04: Central America data, FOMIN and the Central Banks; EU data: Jiménez-Martín, S., Jorgensen, N.
and Labeaga, J. M. (2007); IMF data: Lueth, E. and Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2006).
Source: IMF Survey. October 23, 2000. Andrea Schaechter, Mark Stone, Mark Zelmer in the IMF, MEA Dept.
Online at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/2000/102300.pdf Professor Jeffrey Frankel
The background papers for the high-level seminar “Implementing Inflation Targets,” 2000,
available on the IMF Website: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/seminar/2000/targets/index.htm
Inflation targeting is the reigning orthodoxy.
180.000
160.000
140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
Actual vs Fitted vs. Fundamentals-
20.000
Projected Values
0.000
84 85 85 86 87 88 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 94 94 95 96 97 97 98 99 00 00 01 02 03 03 04 05 06
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
RERICPIactual RERICPIFitted RERICPIProjected
• 1st step for any central bank dipping its toe in these waters:
compute monthly export price index.
• 2nd step: announce that it is monitoring the index.
• Target a basket of major currencies ($, €, ¥) and minerals.
• A still more moderate, still less exotic-sounding, version of PEPI
proposal: target a monthly index of producer prices.
• Key point: exclude import prices from the index,
& include export prices.
• Flaw of CPI target: it does it the other way around.
Fischer, Stanley, 2001, “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?” Journal of
Economic Perspectives 15 (2).
Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003, “Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging
Economies,” in Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia, ADB ( Macmillan).
Frankel, 2009, “A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity-Exporters in Latin
America and the Caribbean,” Myths and Realities of Commodity Dependence: Policy Challenges
and Opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank, Sept.
Frankel, and Daniel Xie, 2010, “Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights
in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes,” American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 100, May.
Ghosh, Atish, Anne-Marie Gulde, and Holger C. Wolf, 2000, “Currency Boards: More Than a
Quick Fix?” Economic Policy 31.
Rogoff, Kenneth, and Maurice Obstfeld, 1995, “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,” J. of Econ.
Perspectives 9, No. 4 (Fall).
Rose, Andrew, 2000, “One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on
Trade,” Economic Policy.
Taylor, Alan, 2002, “A Century of Purchasing Power Parity,” Rev. Ec. & Statistics, 84.
Arteta, Carlos, 2005, “Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce
Currency Mismatches,” Topics in Macroeconomics 5, no. 1, Article 10.
Calvo, Guillermo, and Carmen Reinhart, 2002, “Fear of Floating,” Quarterly J. Economics, 117, no. 2.
Calvo, Guillermo, and Carlos Vegh, 1994, “Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors,” Contemporary
Economic Policy, 12 (April).
Eichengreen, Barry, Paul Masson, Miguel Savastano, and Sunil Sharma, 1999, “Transition Strategies and
Nominal Anchors on the Road to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility,” Essays in International Finance,
No. 213 (Princeton: Princeton University Press).
Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003, “A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export
Price (‘PEP’),” International Finance, Spring.
___, “A Proposal to Tie Iraq’s Currency to Oil,” Financial Times, June 13, 2003.
Frankel, and Andrew Rose, 1998, “The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion,” The
Economic Journal.
___, and ___, 2002, “An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Frankel, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2008, “Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the
Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights,” IMF Staff Papers.
Friedman, Milton, 1953, “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates,” in Essays in Positive Economics.
Husain, Asim, Ashoka Mody & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005, “Exchange Rate Regime Durability and
Performance in Developing Vs. Advanced Economies” JME 52 , Jan.35-64.
Ishii, Shogo, et al, Exchange Arrangements and Foreign Exchange Markets (IMF) 2003.
Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, and Federico Sturzenegger, 2003, “To Float or to Trail: Evidence on the Impact of
Exchange Rate Regimes,” American Economic Review, 93, No. 4, Sept. .
McKinnon, Ronald, 1963, “Optimum Currency Areas,” American Economic Review, Sept., pp. 717-24
Mundell, Robert, 1961, “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” AER, Nov., pp. 509-17.
Parsley, David, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2001, "Explaining the Border Effect: The Role of Exchange Rate
Variability, Shipping Costs, and Geography,” Journal of International Economics, 55, no. 1, 87-106.
Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2004. “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A
Reinterpretation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):1-48, February.
Tavlas, George, Harris Dellas & Alan Stockman, “The Classification and Performance of Alternate
Exchange-Rate Systems,” 2006.
Williamson, John, “The Case for a Basket, Band and Crawl (BBC) Regime for East Asia,” in D.Gruen &
J.Simon, eds., Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001.