Path Analysis and Structured Linear Equations

Biologists in interested in complex phenomena Entails hypothesis testing

Deriving causal linkages between interacting systems

Simple linear causal relations often not realistic Unknown and possibly reticulate correlations among variables Predictor A p Intermediate B p Response C
Numerous possible interactions Correlations among variables with differing magnitudes

Path Analysis
What tools are available to Ecologists and Evolutionary Biologists for analyzing systems with multiple causality? Multiple Regression? Path Analysis
Increasingly common

Two methods are related

Use former to estimate the latter

Goals of Path Analysis

Hypothesis Testing Exploratory Data Analysis

Origins of Path Analysis

Developed by Sewell Wright
Formulated in series of papers published in 1918, 1921, 1934, 1960

Derived to partition direct and indirect relationships among variables Path Analysis deals with dependency relationships among variables Key is that investigator specified the order of dependency

Mechanics of Path Analysis

Derive a model of dependency Partition relationships among the different pathways Not necessarily a simultaneous method Originally did not include overall tests of model fit to the data Recently Path Analysis superceded by SEM
Structured Equation Modelling

Meaning of Path Models

Path Models are presumed to represent causal hypotheses A significant path model does not imply causality
Rather one can use the model to test for causality using experimental data or in a confirmatory model with additional data

Indirect and Direct Effects

Two ways that a predictor variable may affect a response variable First, there is a direct effect of variable x1 on y
I.e., x1 p y

Second, there is an indirect effect of variable x1 on y through another correlated predictor variable.

General Path Model

Xi
p1 p2 p3 p4 p7 p5 p6

Yj

U1

U2

Elaboration of the Path Model

Path coefficients designated by pi Unexplained variation is given by U Correlations are designated by ri Correlations shown by double arrows Paths by single arrows Negative Paths traditionally are designated with dashed lines

Estimation of Path Coefficients

Typically use Multiple Regression to estimate path coefficients
Either standardize the x and y variables and then run the regression or Request the output of standardized partial regression coefficients

Decomposition of Correlations Factor Analysis

Assumptions of Path Model

Assume linear and additive relationships
Excludes curvilinear and multiplicative models

Error terms are uncorrelated with one another Recursive models only one way causal flows Observed variables measured without error Model is correctly specified
All causal determinants properly included in model If causal variables excluded it is because they are independent of those that were included

Path Coefficients
Can compute from simple correlations
For one x and one y Path is:
pXY = rXY

For two x variables and a single y Y1 = pY1X1x1 + pY1X2x2 + eY1 rX1Y1 = pX1Y1 + PY1X2rX1X2

This shows that the correlation between x and y has a direct and indirect component Residual is given by 1-R2yi.jklp

Dark Side of Path Analysis

Collinearity Unstable beta weights (paths) Incompletely specified path models Use of categorical variables in paths Low sample size

Path Analysis of MorphologypPerformance

Morphological variables from juvenile Urosaurus ornatus Performance variables
Initial Velocity Maximum Velocity Stride Length Stride Frequency