NGHIN CU TIU TH C PH VIT NAM 2004

Trn Th Qunh Chi Trung tm T vn CS NN

1. 2. 3.

Gii thiu nghin cu L do tin hnh nghin cu Mc tiu nghin cu Phng php nghin cu Kt qu nghin cu Kt qu iu tra h; c im h Tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti 2 TP c im ca ngi tiu th c ph Kt lun Kt qu iu tra qun c im qun Tnh hnh mua c ph Tnh hnh bn c ph Kt lun Khuyn ngh

KT CU BI VIT

GII THIU NGHIN CU

Gi c ph th gii tng mnh t gia thp k 90, hng triu ngi sn xut v bun bn c ph trn th gii b thit hi Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn l do qu da vo th trng th gii, khng c gii php a dng ho th trng, c bit l th trng trong nc. Rt nhiu quc gia SX c ph TG gn y trin khai chin lc tiu th c ph ni a. Lng tiu th ca Brazil gn bng sn lng. Vit Nam cha bao gi c nghin cu v tiu th c ph trong nc. S liu tiu th ch c c tnh t s lng xut khu v sn lng v iu tra h. Vic nghin cu tiu th c ph l rt quan trng vi VN nhm a ra chin lc tiu th ni a c nc.

Mc tiu nghin cu
c lng tnh hnh tiu th c ph ti thnh ph HN v HCM, phn theo nhm i tng v loi c ph. Xc nh xu hng, thi quen v tim nng tiu th c ph. a ra mt s khuyn ngh chnh sch mang tnh nh hng tng cng tiu th c ph trong nc.

Phng php nghin cu

Thu thp s liu s cp: B s liu iu tra mc sng dn c 2002-04, VICOFA v s liu tiu th c ph mt s nc trn th gii. Thu thp s liu s cp: iu tra h: hn 700 h ti hai TP HN v HCM, ly mu theo phng php phn tng theo dn s, c kh nng i din cho thnh ph, phn b mu c nu phn sau iu tra qun c ph: mi TP iu tra 20 qun c ph, khng i din c cho TP, ch xc nh xu hng. Phng php phn tch s liu: Phn tch thng k m t s liu iu tra S dng cng c kinh t lng phn tch tiu th c ph theo VLSS, tng quan gia thu nhp v tiu th theo s liu iu tra

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph TG

6.00 5.00

EC America

4.00 Other countries 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Japan

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph TG

Indonesia

D bo th trng c ph TG
Sn lng c ph TG 05-06: 6.480 nghn tn. Lng tn kho t v trc: 1.320 nghn tn Tng cung c ph v ti: 7.800 nghn tn Nhu cu ton cu: 6.900 nghn tn (115 triu bao). D tha ch yu do Braxin v VN s c ma. V lu di, trin vng gi c ph khng kh quan v khi gi nhch ln, ngi sn xut lp tc tng u t v tng din tch trng trt, sn lng lp tc tng ln.

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph VN 2002 theo VLSS

Lng tiu th trung bnh c nc 1,25 kg/ ngi/nm
Lng (kg/ngi) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Thnh th Nng thn Gi tr (000 /ngi)

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph 2002 theo VLSS

30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Ngho nht 2 3 4 Giu nht Lng (kg/ngi) Gi tr (000 /ngi)

Tnh hnh tiu th c ph 2002 theo VLSS

Lng ung lin (kg/ngi)
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Thnh th Nng thn

Lng bt (kg/ngi)

Vai tr ca tiu th c ph trong nc

Theo VICOFA, tiu th c ph trong nc ca VN 2003 chim khong 4,4% tng sn lng. Theo VLSS 2002, lng tiu th trong nc cc loi c ph ch bin chim khong 13% tng sn lng c ph qu Theo VLSS 2004, gi tr tiu th trong nc cc loi c ph chim khong 9.19% tng gi tr XK. Nh vy, VN cha c ngun thng k thng nht v tiu th c ph trong nc ca VN, gy kh khn trong vic phn tch th trng. Tuy nhin, theo ngun no th mc tiu th trong nc ca VN vn mc thp so vi TG (27.7%)

KT QU NGHIN CU
1. Kt qu iu tra h gia nh 2. Kt qu iu tra qun c ph

C IM H GIA NH

PHN B MU H NI
Hong Mai Thanh Xun

Ba nh

Hai B Trng Cu Giy Hon Kim

PHN B MU HCM

Tn Ph G Vp

Qun 1 Qun 3

Qun 11 Bnh Thnh Qun 6

C IM H GIA NH
S thnh vin trung bnh: 4 ngi/h i tng phng vn: ngi chu trch nhim mua lng thc cho gia nh. tui trung bnh HN: 36,3, t 35,2 n 39,5 tui trung bnh HCM: 34.9, t 29 n 38.6

PHN B MU THEO NHM H

Ngho 11% Giu 18%

Trung bnh 71%

Khng c khc bit nhiu gia nam v n

TRNH GIO DC
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 M ch Cp II Hc ngh Cao hc H Ni TP HCM

VIC LM
HN 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Cn b Cng NN nhn HCM

Sinh vin

Ni tr Tn tt

Tht nghip

TP HCM c nhiu ngi kinh doanh, cng nhn v ni tr HN: nhiu cn b NN, v hu

THU NHP
Thu nhp trung bnh ca h nm 2004 (000)
5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 H Ni TP HCM

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho

H Ni TP HCM

TNH HNH TIU TH C PH

TNG MC TIU TH C PH
Lng mua u ngi (gr) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

HN: Qun Ba nh, Cu Giy, Hong Mai tiu th chnh (1150, 828 & 837 gr/ngi/nm).
TP HCM: Qun Tn Ph, Qun 3, Qun 1 v Qun 11 tiu th chnh (2230, 2260, 1772, 1736 gr/ngi/nm).

SO SNH 2002-2004
gr/ngi/nm
H Ni 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2004 TP HCM

TNG MC TIU TH C PH
Tng lng c ph mua u ngi theo nhm thu nhp
2004
H Ni 2500 2000 TP HCM

2002
H Ni 2000 1500 TP HCM

1500 1000 500 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho

1000 500 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho

Lng tiu th tng nhiu nht : TP HCM: nhm h giu (715 gr/ngi/nm), sau l nhm h ngho (368) H Ni: nhm h giu (246 gr/ngi/nm), sau l nhm h trung bnh (187)

S H THAY I TIU TH SO VI 2002

C 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 H Ni TP HCM Khng

Nguyn nhn thay i: H Ni:tng do nhn thc tt hn v dinh dng c ph v tc dng i vi sc kho, c cho nhiu hn; gim do tip t khch hn. HCM: tng do cht lng tt hn, nhn thc tt hn v tc dng i vi sc kho; gim do c cho t hn.

Tiu th c ph trong gia nh gm c: Mua c ph cho tiu th gia nh C ph c cho/tng

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

2004- Khng c s khc bit nhiu gia cc qun (%)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Khng bao Vi ln/nm Vi ln/thng Vi ln/tun gi H Ni TPHCM

H Ni

2002 (%)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
K hng bao gi V i l n/ n m V i l n/ t hng V i l n/ t u n

TP HCM

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Khng bao gi 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho Vi ln/nm Vi ln/thng Vi ln/tun

H Ni (% trong tng tng nhm)

TP HCM (% trong tng tng nhm)

50 40 30 20 10 0 Giu Trung bnh

Khng bao gi Vi ln/nm Vi ln/thng Vi ln/tun

Ngho

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Tng lng & gi tr mua c ph 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

Lng c ph mua nhiu HN ti: qun Ba nh, Cu Giy v Hong Mai Lng c ph mua nhiu TPHCM ti: qun 3 v Tn Ph

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Lng mua c ph u ngi theo nhm h nm 2004 (gr)
H Ni 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Lng mua u ngi (gr)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 H Ni TP HCM

Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

Lng mua c ph theo u ngi vi ln nm 2004

Lng mua u ngi (gr)

Tnh hnh mua c ph vi ln thng, tun

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

H Ni

TP HCM

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Lng mua c ph u ngi vi ln nm 2004 theo nhm thu nhp (gr/ngi)
H Ni 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

Loi c ph chnh HN :Sa ho tan, bt trn ln Loi c ph chnh HCM: en ho tan, sa ho tan, bt khc

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Lng mua c ph u ngi vi ln thng, tun theo nhm thu nhp (gr/ngi/nm)
H Ni 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

S lng h ngho ung c ph vi ln/thng thp hn h giu nhng lng ung ca mt h trong hai nhm ngang bng nhau

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH

Mua c ph khc bit theo ma
Khng 300 200 100 0 H Ni TP HCM C

-H Ni: tiu th ch yu vo ma ng (31%) v l tt (62%) -TP HCM: tiu th ch yu vo l tt (84%), nhng hu ht s h khng tiu th khc bit theo ma (ch c 16% tiu th khc bit theo ma)

TNH HNH MUA C PH CHO TIU TH GIA NH Dp tiu th c ph chnh

200 150 100 50 0
Tiu th hng ngy Lm qu Khc Dp l tt

H Ni

TP HCM

100 80 60 40 20 0 Tip khch Lm qu Khc

C PH C TNG 2004
T l c ph c tng/tng tiu th gia nh (%)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 H Ni TP HCM

C PH C TNG 2004
Lng mua u ngi (gr) 250 200 150 100 50 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

Lng c ph c tng u ngi

H Ni 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

C PH MUA TNG 2004

C 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 H Ni TP HCM
Lng mua u ngi (gr)

Khng

S h mua c ph tng

Tnh hnh mua c ph tng

200 150 100 50 0

Gi tr mua u ngi (000)

H Ni

TP HCM

C PH MUA TNG 2004

Ti HN: qun Hai B Trng v Cu Giy mua nhiu tng Ti TP HCM: qun G vp v Tn Ph

Nhn hiu c ph chnh: Trung nguyn, Vina caf, Nescafe

Ha Noi 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Giu Trung bnh Ngho TP HCM

TIU TH C PH C NHN TRONG NH

TIU TH C NHN TRONG GIA NH 2004

Mc tiu th thng xuyn (s ngi)
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Khng bao gi Vi cc/nm 1-3 cc/thng 1-4 cc/tun 4-6 cc/tun 1 cc/ngy 2-3 cc/ngy Khc

TP HCM H Ni

TIU TH C NHN TRONG GIA NH 2004

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Khng bao gi 1-3 cc/thng 4-6 cc/tun 2-3 cc/ngy Nam N

H Ni (s ngi)

Nam

TP HCM (s ngi)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Khng bao gi 1-3 cc/thng 4-6 cc/tun 2-3 cc/ngy

TIU TH C NHN TRONG GIA NH 2004

Thi quen ung cc loi c ph ca c nhn trong gia nh (s h)
H Ni 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ho tan en TP HCM

Ho tan s a

B t en

B s t a
H Ni 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sng Tra TP HCM

Chiu

T i

Khng c nh

TIU TH C NHN TRONG GIA NH 2004

Thay i so vi 2002: H Ni: 56% khng thay i, 7% tng v 2,4% gim TP HCM: 82% khng thay i, 15% tng v 3% gim
Tng 100 80 60 40 20 0 H Ni TP HCM Gim

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Khng bao Vi 1-3 1-4 gi cc/nm cc/thng cc/tun c/ngy 4-6 1 c 2-3 c c/tun c c/ngy

TP HCM H Ni

Khc

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

S ngi tiu th cc loi c ph khc nhau H Ni
Nam 250 200 150 100 50 0 Bt en N

TP HCM
Nam 250 200 150 100 50 N

Bt s a

Ho tan en

Ho tan

0 Bt en

s a

Bt s Ho tan a s a

Khc

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

Gi tr tiu th u ngi (000 )

8 6 4 2 0 H Ni TP HCM

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

Thi gian ung c ph chnh (s ngi)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sng Tra H Ni TP HCM

Chiu

T i

Khng c nh

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

Ni ung c ph chnh (s ngi)
H Ni 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Qun c Vn ph phng TP HCM

Nh bn

Nh Ni khc hng

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

Tiu th c ph khng khc nhau nhiu gia nam v n Ti H Ni; i tng tiu th nhiu c ph ngoi gia nh l cn b NN,ngi kinh doanh v cc i tng khc Ti TP HCM: i tng tiu th nhiu c ph ngoi gia nh l ngi kinh doanh, cng nhn v cc i tng khc.

TIU TH C NHN NGOI GIA NH 2004

Thay i trong tiu th ngoi gia nh so vi 2002
S ngi
H Ni 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Khng thay i Tng TP HCM
60 50 40 30 20 10 0

%
Tng Gim

Gim

H Ni

TP HCM

Tiu th trong gia nh TP HCM (1651 gr/ngi/nm) tiu th trong gia nh nhiu hn H Ni (752gr)trong c ph c biu trong tng s tiu th HN (27%) cao hn TP HCM (12%) S h H Ni mua c ph vi ln/nm chim a s. TPHCM ch yu l h mua vi ln/thng hoc tun. Mc ny thp hn so vi kt qu VLSS 2002 (2420 gr/ngi/nm) v mc trung bnh th gii (3500 gr/ngi/nm). Tiu th nm 2004 cao hn 2002 c hai thnh ph do cht lng c ph v nhn thc tt hn Khng c lin h gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi v lng c ph tiu th trong gia nh Dp tiu th chnh: H Ni: hng ngy, l tt; TP HCM: tip khch. Ma tiu th chnh: H Ni: ma ng; TP HCM: khng khc bit theo ma

KT LUN 1

KT LUN 2
Tiu th ngoi gia nh TP HCM tiu th ngoi gia nh nhiu hn HN, ch yu ung 2-3 cc/ngy tr ln HN ung nhiu c ph bt (en&sa) v ho tan sa; TPHCM ung ch yu c ph bt, cc qun c ph Nhn hiu ch yu l cc hng SX trong nc i tng ung c ph l cn b NN (HN), ngi kinh doanh (HN&HCM) Tiu th khng thay i nhiu so vi 2002

CC NHN NH CHUNG
Nguyn nhn khuyn khch ung c ph H Ni: C ph l thc ung gip tnh to, c li cho sc kho (32%), l thc ung gip gii tr, thng thc (35.4%) TP HCM: ngoi hai nguyn nhn trn, c ph l thc ung ngon (23%) Nguyn nhn hn ch ung c ph Khng c iu kin kinh t mua: HN (18%) Khng tt cho sc kho: TP HCM (18%) Khng c thi quen: TP HCM (20%) Khng c nhiu thi gian: HN (15%)

CC NHN NH CHUNG
C ph khng th thay th ch: HN (78% s ngi tr li) v TP HCM (59%) Dn thnh th ung nhiu hn nng thn: HN (95%), HCM (65%) Gii tr ung nhiu hn: HN & HCM (65%) Nam ung nhiu hn n: HN (94%), HCM (72%) Ngi giu ung nhiu hn ngi ngho: HN (28% ng , 18% khng ng ), TPHCM (55% khng ng )

KT QU IU TRA QUN C PH

C IM QUN
Qun c ph HN ra i sm hn TP HCM (HN: hn 12 nm, TP HCM: 3,7 nm) Quy m qun HN nh hn TP HCM: HN (100 m2, 26 bn, 9 nhn vin); TP HCM (175m2, 56 bn, 23 nhn vin), ch yu dng loi bn cao. Qun TP HCM a dng ho hn HN: HN (9 loi nc gii kht), TP HCM (40 loi) Khch hng HN ch yu l sinh vin, thanh nin, cn b; TPHCM: thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh doanh

C IM QUN
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 H Ni TP HCM

Gi ti thiu Gi ti a

/v:000

/v: triu
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 H Ni TP HCM Doanh thu 2004 Doanh thu 2002

MUA C PH
Ch yu mua c ph bt, loi ln v Arabica HN: mua c ph khng hng v, TP HCM; c hng v Xut s c ph c SX : k Lk v Lm ng Cc nh cung cp: ch yu l cc nh bun bn t nhn ti TP v mt s doanh nghip Nhn hiu c ph: Trung Nguyn, Bin Ho, Pht t (TP HCM) v Mai, Trung Nguyn, Thu H (H Ni)

MUA C PH
/v: kg/thng

Lng mua 2004 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 H Ni TP HCM Lng mua 2002

BN C PH
Cc loi c ph bn chnh: en nng, nu nng, Arabica Loi c ph tiu th nhiu hn trong ngy (s h) H Ni: C ph bt en vo bui sng v bt nu vo bui ti TP HCM: C ph bt en bui sng v ti
en nng 15 10 5 0 H Ni TP HCM en Sa

BN C PH
Gi tr/ngy (000 ) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 H Ni TP HCM Lng/ngy (gr)

BN C PH
Gi tr c ph 04 (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 H Ni TP HCM Gi tr ch (%)_

Ngi ung c ph 04 (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 H Ni TP HCM Ngi ung c ph 02 (%)

BN C PH
Cc nhm khch hng chnh H Ni: sinh vin/ bn b: bt nu
Cn b vn phng: bt en

TP HCM: tt c cc i tng thch ung bt en, c bit l thanh nin Nhm ngi t ung c ph: ph n, tr em, hc sinh

BN C PH
Bng: Cc gii php tng lng bn c ph

Gii php

H Ni

TP HCM

Tng cht lng, gim gi thnh, qung co, phc v tt K thut pha c ph a im thun li Ngn chn hng gi m bo ngun hng

11

9 2 3 1

KT LUN
Qun c ph HN ra i sm hn, quy m nh hn v chuyn mn ho cao hn HCM Ngun cung ch yu l DN & ngi bun bn trong nc, c ph xut s 2 vng SX ln ca VN, ch yu l mua c ph bt, ln v Arabica. Lng mua 2002 thp hn 2004, HN thp hn HCM. Cc qun ch yu bn en nng, nu nng v Arabica (rt t ho tan), c bit HCM ch a chung c ph bt en. Lng ngi ung 02 t hn 04, lng thp hn. HN thp hn HCM Khch hng HN ch yu l sinh vin, thanh nin, cn b; TPHCM: thanh nin, bn b, gii kinh doanh. Tng cht lng, gim gi thnh, qung co, phc v tt l nhng gii php ch yu cc qun c ph khuyn ngh.

Vai tr ca tiu th trong nc theo kt qu NC ny (7,5%)

Gi tr tiu th 2 TP

Gi tr xut khu

 XUT CHNH SCH

i vi cc B ngnh Thng xuyn tin hnh iu tra mc tng cu trong nc, xu hng v i tng tiu th. Thit lp nhm chuyn gia xy dng chin lc tiu th c ph ni a, hc tp kinh nghim pht trin th trng trong nc ca cc t chc quc t v cc nc tiu th ln khc, c bit l nc SX Chnh ph cn h tr v ti chnh cho CT XTTM TT c ph trong nc v CT pht trin ton din c ph bn vng. Cn a ni dung XTTM trong nc trong ni dung pht trin tng th ngnh c ph pht trin bn vng, c bit tr trng n phng thc qun l v nh hng. Chnh ph cn h tr cc doanh nghip, ngi kinh doanh c ph trong nc trin khai chng trnh XTTM (v k thut v phng thc t chc)

 XUT CHNH SCH

Mt s xut cho chin lc pht trin TT trong nc: Chn v c chin lc phn loi i tng ph hp: Gii tr, gii kinh doanh (tr trng c ph bt, cht lng cao, c hng v HCM), Vn phng, c quan nh nc (HN): tr trng c ph ho tan, c hng v Chn thi im thch hp: HN: ma ng, dp l tt v ma thi; HCM: dp l tt v ma thi. HN: nn lp cc qun c ph chuyn mn ho; HCM: nn a dng ho cc loi nc ung thu ht khch kt hp CT khuyn mi ung c ph

 XUT CHNH SCH

DN nn thnh lp cc dy chuyn sn xut c ph cht lng cao phc v nhu cu: tt c cc khu trong chui ngnh hng; hng ti ng k chng ch xut s hoc thng hiu. u t cng ngh ch bin c ph ho tan t c ph Robusta l th mnh ca VN. DN cn ch trng thu mua t nhiu ngun SX c ph trong nc, c bit l c ph Arabica min ni pha Bc,