Quantitative Methods 2010

Practice Problems On Sampling

QM 2010 - Kingston 1

Problem 1
In a sample of 16 observations from a Normal distribution with mean 150 and variance 256, what is the probability
a) That a single observation < 160 b) That a sample mean < 160

QM 2010 - Kingston

Solution To Problem 1
A)
Let x be a single observation 160 150 z* 0.625 Then, P[x < 160] = P[z < z*] --256 From table, reqd probability = 0.5 + 0.23 = 0.73

B)
Let x be the mean of sample size 16. 160 150 10 The P[ x 160 ] = P[z < z*] --- z* 16 4 2.5
16

From table, reqd probability = 0.5 + 0.49 = 0.99

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Problem 2
An industrial battery has an average life of 4300 hours with a std dev of 730 hours.
a) What is the probability that for a random battery , its life will be at least 5000 hours b) In a sample of 25 such batteries, the average life was 4000 hours. What is the probability that the sample average will be at least 5000 hours.

QM 2010 - Kingston

Sketch For Problem 2-a

Population Distn
= 730 hours

Required probability

= 5000 hours

= 4300 hours
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Solution To Problem 2-a

Let L be life of battery. 5000 4300 700 0.959 P[L > 5000] = P[z > z*] --z* = 730 730 From tables, required probability is (0.5 0.33) = 0.17

QM 2010 - Kingston

Sketch For Problem 2-b

Sampling Distn of (Much thinner)

730 l 25
Required probability

l
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= 5000 hours

= 4300 hours
7

Solution for Problem 2-b

Let l be average life in sample of 25
5000 4300 4.79 730 25

P[ l > 5000] = P[z > z*] --z* =

From tables, required probability = 0.0

Note: The data on sample average being 4000 is a red herring.

QM 2010 - Kingston

Problem 3
Hyper, a large supermarket chain is considering buying out FunFood which has 145 stores. The actual mean daily earnings of FunFood stores is not known, but the earnings are all known to be Normally distributed with identical means and std dev of Rs.1200. Before buying out FunFood, Hyper wants to study daily earnings of a random sample of 36 FunFood stores What is the probability that the sample mean earnings of 36 stores will fall within Rs.200 of the actual mean?
L&R, 6th Ed, Ex 6-48
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Sketch For Problem 3

Sampling Distn of x
x
n [ N n ] N 1

Required probability

- 200
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x
+ 200
10

Solution to Problem 3
Let x be the mean of the 36 stores, and the actual, unknown mean for FunFood store. Then required probability is P[ - 200 < x < + 200] ( 200 ) ( 200 ) z2 = P[ z1 < z < z2 ] where z 145 36 , and 145 36
1

But

1200 36

145 1

145 1

200

.
z1

Using FPC it becomes = 174

200 1.15 174
z2 200 1.15 174

Then, and From Normal tables, required probability is 0.3749 + 0.3749 = 0.7498
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Problem 4
On the average 110 phones per day are being returned to ITI (Indian Telephone Industries) because of faulty receivers, with std dev being 64. ITI management has decided that unless there can be at least 80% probability, that on average no more than 120 phones per day will be returned over next 48 days, they should go for a process overhaul. Is overhaul necessary?
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Sketch For Problem 4

Sampling Distn of x
64 x 48
Area 80 %

= 110

x = 120

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Solution To Problem 4
Returns per day is N(110,64) Essentially, we are drawing a sample of 48 (days), and computing the average daily returns, x . This x will have a std dev of 64 64 9.248 48 6.92 Required probability is P[z < (120 110)/9.248] = P[z < 1.08] From tables, that is 0.8599 or 85.99% Since that is more than 80%, no overhaul necessary.
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End Of Session Problems On Sampling Distributions

QM 2010 - Kingston

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