o o o o o o o o

Nhim v ca mn hc: V sao Trung Quc li nng gi ng Nhn dn t vo 25/6? ..\Ri ro ti chnh v m.doc V sao Fed gim li sut li khin cho USD mt gi? V sao 1 USD bng 19.000 VND trong khi 1 USD li bng 6,6881 CNY? S khc nhau y l g? T gi sinh ra nh th no? Ti sao USD mt gi li khin gi du m, gi vng tng? Ti sao t gi tng li khin lm pht tng? .v.v
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 i tng nghin cu mn hc: TCQT nghin cu ch yu v t gi, bn cnh TCQT cn nghin cu cc vn v cn cn thanh ton quc t, d tr ngoi hi, sc cnh tranh thng mi quc t...

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 Ni dung nghin cu: Chng 1: Tng quan v th : trng ngoi hi. Chng 2: Cn cn thanh ton quc t. Chng 3: Nhng vn c bn v t gi Chng 4: Hc thuyt IRP Chng 5: Hc thuyt PPP

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TI LIU THAM KHO: Ti liu ting vit: 1. Ti chnh quc t - PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin 2. Tin t Ngn hng PGS.TS. T Kim Ngc 3. Tin t Ngn hng PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin 4. Bi tp v bi gii ti chnh quc t - PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin. 5. Nghip v kinh doanh ngoi hi PGS.TS Nguyn Vn Tin 6. Cc thng t ngh nh ca NHNN v qun l ngoi hi: Php lnh ngoi hi, Quy nh trng thi ngoi hi ca cc NHTM..
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TI LIU THAM KHO: Ti liu ting anh: 1. International Finance Levis, Fourth Edition 2. International Economics Dominick Salvatore 3. The Economics of Money, banking and financial Market Frederic S.Mishkin

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TI LIU THAM KHO: Website nghin cu: www.bis.org www.wb.org www.imf.org www.newyorkfed.org www.pbc.gov.cn www.safe.gov.cn www.sbv.gov.vn www.gso.gov.vn
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www.bankofengland.co.uk www.boj.or.jp www.bok.or.kr www.mas.gov.sg www.cnbc.com www.bloomberg.com www.ssrn.com

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LOGO

1. 2. 3.

Tng quan v th trng ngoi hi. Nhng vn c bn trong kinh doanh ngoi hi. Nghip v ngoi hi giao ngay

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1.1. KHI NIM V C IM 1. 2. CC CHC NNG CA TH TRNG NGOI HI 1. 3. NHNG THNH VIN THAM GIA TH TRNG NGOI HI 1. 4. CC NGHIP V KINH DOANH NGOI HI 1. 5. PHN LOI TH TRNG NGOI HI

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Khi nim ngoi hi

Ngoi hi (the Foreign Exchange) bao gm cc phng tin thanh ton c s dng trong thanh ton quc t. Trong , phng tin thanh ton l nhng th c sn chi tr, thanh ton ln cho nhau.

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Ngoi t: l tin t ca nc ngoi (bao gm c ng tin chung ca cc nc khc v SDR) Giy t c gi ghi bng ngoi: c phiu, tri phiu, hi phiu, k phiu, sc thng mi Vng tiu chun quc t ng tin do ngi khng c tr nm gi

Ngoi hi

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 Ngoi t: Cu hi 1: Ta bit rng ngoi t ch l mt dng ca ngoi hi, nhng ti sao trn thc t ngi ta thng hiu ngoi hi l ngoi t?

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Ngha thc t

Ngoi t: l tin t ca nc ngoi (bao gm c ng tin chung ca cc nc khc v SDR) Giy t c gi ghi bng ngoi: c phiu, tri phiu, hi phiu, k phiu, sc thng mi Vng tiu chun quc t

Ngoi hi

Ngha rng n

ng tin do ngi khng c tr nm gi

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Cu hi 2: Nu USD chim 45% c cu cc ng tin, hi trong 100 giao dch mua bn gia hai ng tin th c bao nhiu giao dch c mt ng USD? Cu hi 3: Nu USD chim 50% c cu cc ng tin, hi trong 100 giao dch mua bn gia hai ng tin th c bao nhiu giao dch c mt ng USD? Cu hi 4: Nu USD chim 86% c cu cc ng tin, hi trong 112 giao dch mua bn gia hai ng tin th c bao nhiu giao dch c mt ng USD?
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Cu hi 5: Theo bn bn cnh USD, c nn to ra thm mt ng tin (EUR, JPY) lm ng tin ngang gi chung trn th trng ngoi hi hay khng?

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GTCG

Trn thc t, giy t c gi khng c php giao dch trc tip trn th trng ngoi hi.

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Bi ton Mt ngi dn Vit Nam nm gi mt tri phiu ghi bng USD, mnh gi tri phiu ny l P 0 (USD), li sut r %/nm, k hn t nm, li nhp gc v thanh ton mt ln khi n hn. Cu hi: 1. Tnh gc v li khi n hn. 2. Tnh gi tr chit khu thu c bit tri phiu cn k thng na mi o hn. Li sut chit khu l r k c %/nm.

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 Vng tiu chun quc t: Theo quyt nh s 1165/2001/Q NHNN v vic mang vng ca c nhn khi xut nhp cnh. Th vng tiu chun quc t c cc c im sau: 1. Hnh dng: dng khi, thi. 2. Cht lng: > 99,5% 3. Khi lng: > 1 kg 4. Ngun gc: do nh sn xut vng c Hip hi vng, S giao dch vng quc t cng nhn.

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 Ni t do ngi khng c tr nm gi: Ngi khng c tr l ai? Cu hi 6: Hy ch ra u l ngoi hi i vi Vit Nam trong cc trng hp di y: a. Mt Vit Kiu m 2 ti khon ti VCB nh sau: mt ti khon 1.000 USD v mt ti khon 20.000.000VND. b. Ti VCB c 1 ti khon ca Cng dn Hoa K sang Vit Nam lm n c 2 nm, s d ti khon 100.000.000 VND. c. VCB nm gi ti khon ca mt cng ty XNK Vit Nam gi tr 20.000 USD.
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b/ Khi nim th trng ngoi hi Th trng ngoi hi l ni mua bn cc ng tin khc nhau. Cu hi: Ti sao trn thc t ngi ta thng hiu th trng ngoi hi l th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng?

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Ngha rng FOREX Ngha thc t

Bt k u din ra hot ng mua bn ngoi t

Th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng

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FOREX = 100% Non Interbank = 15% Interbank = 85% Bank KH = 14% KH KH = 1%

VAI TR CA NGN HNG = 99%

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Yu t no quyt nh s tn ti ca th trng ngoi hi?

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c/ c im ca th trng ngoi hi 1. L th trng khng gian. 2. L th trng khng ng. 3. Thnh vin ch yu l cc NHTM, cc nh mi gii v NHTW. 4. Giao dch in t: in thoi, mng my tnh, telex v fax.

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5. 6. 7. 8.

L th trng hon ho. Tin t c giao dch nhiu nht l USD. Th trng nhy cm vi cc s kin chnh tr, kinh t, x hi Cc th trng FX ln nht th gii, nh: Lun n, NewYork, Tokyo, Singapore

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 Ti sao mi cuc chy ua vo Nh Trng li tc ng mnh ti ng USD trn th trng ngoi hi quc t? Vo nhng thng cui nm, USD thng c xu hng tng gi?

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Cu hi 7: Cho cc thng tin sau y: Trn th trng FX: mua c 1 USD ngi ta phi b ra 18.000 VND. Ti VCB H Ni: Ngi ta bn 1 USD th c VCB H Ni tr cho 19.000 VND. Hi: Nu bn bit c thng tin trn th bn s lm g? iu g xy ra sau ? Ti sao?

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CC CHC NNG CA FOREX 1. Phc v thng mi quc t 2. Lun chuyn vn quc t 3. Ni hnh thnh t gi 4. Ni NHTW can thip ln t gi 5. Ni KD v phng nga RR t gi Spot Forward Swap Future Option
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t lnh

NHT Wn

t lnh

u gi m KH t t KH NHTM n lnh mua mua lnh NHTM n hai chiu bn l bn l t lnh t lnh Gi tay trong Gi tay trong MI GII

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PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin Gio trnh Ti chnh quc t. Tr 55 -56

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PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin Gio trnh Ti chnh quc t. Tr 57

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NI DUNG NGHIN CU

1. TNG QUAN V TH TRNG NGOI HI

2. NHNG VN C BN TRONG KINH DOANH NGOI HI

3. NGHIP V GIAO NGAY - SPOT

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2.1. CC KHI NIM

2. 2. PHN LOI T GI

2. 3. CC PHNG PHP YT T GI

2. 4. IM T GI, CCH C V CCH VIT T GI

2. 5. T GI MUA, T GI BN V LI KINH DOANH NGOI HI

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2.6. T GI NH MI GII

2. 7. MUA BN H, U C V KINH DOANH CHNH LCH T GI

2. 8. T GI CHO V KINH DOANH T GI CHO

2. 9. NGY GI TR TRONG KINH DOANH NGOI HI

2. 10. TRNG THI LUNG V RI RO LI SUT

2. 11. TRNG THI NGOI T V RI RO T GI

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a/ Khi nim t gi: T gi l gi c ca mt ng tin c biu th thng qua ng tin khc. V d: 1 USD = 19.000 VND. Ngha l gi ca USD c biu th thng qua VND v 1 USD c gi bng 19.000 VND

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b/ ng tin yt gi, ng tin nh gi: ng tin yt gi (Commodity Currency k hiu l C): L ng tin hng ho v c n v c nh bng 1. ng tin nh gi (Terms Currency k hiu l T): L ng tin c s n v thay i, ph thuc vo quan h cung cu trn th trng. Trong v d trn: USD l C; VND l T

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c/ Ngn hng yt gi v ngn hng hi gi: Ngn hng yt gi (Quoting bank): L ngn hng thc hin nim yt t gi mua vo v bn ra. Vi t gi c yt, NHYG phi lun sn sng mua vo hay bn ra v iu kin khi c i tc mun giao dch. Ngn hng hi gi (Asking Bank): L ngn hng lin h vi NHYG hi gi v khng bt buc phi thc hin giao dch. Mt ngn hng c th ng thi l NHYG v NHHG trn Interbank.
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d/ Yt t gi hai chiu: Vic NHYG yt ng thi t gi mua vo v t gi bn ra gi l yt gi hai chiu. VD: Mua (Bid) Bn (Offer) USD/VND 19.101 19.109

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PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin Gio trnh Ti chnh quc t. Tr 59

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Cu hi 8: T gi mua, t gi bn tin mt l thp hn, bng hay cao hn t gi mua, bn chuyn khon? Tr li T gi mua tin mt < T gi mua chuyn khon T gi bn chuyn khon < T gi bn tin mt Nguyn nhn: Doanh s mua bn tin mt nh. Chi ph giy t nhiu, chi ph bo qun lu kho. NHTM tng chi ph c hi ca vic nm gi lu kho tin t. Ri ro nhm ln, mt cp, cp git Ri ro tin gi
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Cu hi 9: T gi ng ca ngy hm nay chnh l t gi m ca ngy mai? Tr li T gi ng ca ngy hm nay khng nht thit l t gi m ca ngy mai Nguyn nhn Do c im ca th trng ngoi hi l: Th trng ngoi hi l th trng khng ng. T gi nhy cm vi cc s kin kinh t, chnh tr, x hi, tm l

=> T gi lun lun bin ng

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Cu hi 10: T gi GBP/JPY l thng nht mi ni trn th gii? Tr li T gi GBP/JPY khng nht phi thng nht mi ni trn th gii Nguyn nhn T gi GBP/JPY khng phi c xc nh theo quy lut cung cu trn th trng ngoi hi, m n c cc NHTM tnh ton thng qua mt ng tin th 3 (ng tin trung gian), c th: NHTM da trn 2 t gi c sn trn th trng l GBP/USD v GBP/JPY. V v l do NHTM tnh ton ra cho nn kt qu tnh ton s ph thuc vo tr ch quan ca mi NHTM.
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Cc phng php yt t gi: Phng php trc tip: Ngoi t l C v ni t l T. Phng php gin tip: Ngoi t l T v ni t l C.

Yt t gi trn thc t: USD l ng tin C i vi tt c cc ng tin khc (tr nm trng hp di y. USD l ng tin T i vi 5 ng tin: GBP, AUD. NZD, EUR v SDR.

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Cu hi 11: Ti sao Anh, c, New Zealand, Cc quc gia Chu u v IMF li p dng phng php yt gi gin tip? Cu hi 12: Gia hai ng tin bt k khng c mt USD th u l ng tin C u l ng tin T hay t gi ca hai ng tin ny c yt nh th no? Cu hi 13: Theo bn tt c cc quc gia trn th gii c nn p dng cng mt phng php yt gi hay khng?

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Cu hi 14: T gi gia VND v USD c p dng theo phng php trc tip: 1 USD = 19.000 USD. Vy cch vit t gi VND v USD s c vit nh th no: a/ VND/USD b/ USD/VND c/ Quan im ca bn

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Cu hi 15: S ch s c yt trong t gi GBP/USD cng nhiu hay cng t th cng c li cho ngi mua v ngi bn USD? Tr li Mua USD - bn GBP Bn USD - mua GBP

Mua USD, tc bn GBP, nn Bn USD, tc mua GBP, nn s s ch s c yt cng nhiu ch s c yt cng t cng c cng c li li

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1. im t gi Points im t gi l n v (thng thng l n v thp phn) cui cng ca t gi c yt theo thng l trong cc giao dch ngoi hi. V d: 1 USD = 19.000 VND 1 USD = 7,2121 CNY 1 USD = 129,21 JPY => 1 im ngha l 1 VND. => 1 im ngha l 0,0001 CNY. => 1 im ngha l 0,01 JPY.

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Cu hi 16: Thng thng, khi mua bn trn FOREX, ngi ta c tho thun s ch s c yt trong t gi? Ti sao? Cu hi 17. Phn bit Points v Pips?

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2. Cch c v cch vit t gi Cch c t gi: PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin Gio trnh Ti chnh quc t. Tr.66 Cch vit t gi: 1. Cch vit y : 1 USD = 19.000 VND 2. Cch vit gn hn: USD/VND = 19.000 3. Cch vit chuyn nghip VND = 19.000

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Cu hi 18. Cc t gi sau nim yt ti NHTM X c vit theo cch no? V c hiu nh th no? a. GBP/USD = 1,1212 b. CNY = 7,7272 e. USD = 1,5272 c. EUR = 1,2485 d. 1 USD = 19.000 VND

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T gi mua: L t gi ti NHYG sn sng mua vo ng tin yt gi. T gi bn: L t gi ti NHYG sn sng bn ra ng tin yt gi

Li nhun gp ca NHYG (Spread) = T gi bn T gi mua Hoc

Offer Bid Spread = .111 % Bid

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Cu hi 19. Spread ph thuc vo cc yu t no? Tr li S lng ngoi t trong giao dch. Tm c cng nh s ni ting ca cc trung tm ti chnh. Ga tr ca ng tin tham gia giao dch. Phng tin giao dch l tin mt, hay chuyn khon

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Ngn hng yt gi: NHYG lun lun c li khi ng thi mua vo v bn ra ng tin yt gi hay ng tin nh gi.

Ngn hng hi gi: NHHG lun lun chu l khi ng thi mua vo v bn ra ng tin yt gi hay ng tin nh gi

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1. Mt NHYG ng thi mua vo, bn ra 100 t VND ti t gi th trng 19.000 19.100 2. Mt NHYG ng thi mua vo, bn ra 100,000 USD ti t gi th trng 19.000 19.100 3. Mt NHHG ng thi mua vo, bn ra 100 t VND ti t gi th trng 19.000 19.100 4. Mt NHYG ng thi mua vo, bn ra 100,000 USD ti t gi th trng 19.000 19.100

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Quy tc v t gi giao dch qua mi gii: Mt ngn hng c th ch t lnh mua, lnh bn hoc c hai. Tt c cc lnh t mua bao gi cng thp hn hoc ti a l bng t gi t bn. Khi c t gi t mua bng mt t gi t bn th nh mi gii s khp lnh ngay v thu ph. T gi nh mi gii hay gi tay trong (Inside Price): T gi mua cao nht T gi bn thp nht
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Ngn hng t mua A B C D E Ga tay trong

T gi t mua Bid 18.510 18.514 18.524 18.530 18.532 Khp lnh 18.530

T gi mi gii: USD/VND T gi t bn Ngn hng t Offer bn 18.540 18.538 18.536 18.534 18.532 Khp lnh 18.534 a A b B C

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Bi tp: Mt nh mi gii t gi USD/JPY t ba ngn hng: Ngn hng A: USD/JPY = 125,60 125,65 Ngn hng B: USD/JPY = 125,62 125,67 Ngn hng C: USD/JPY = 125,63 125,68 Lp bng yt t gi ca nh mi gii?

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a. Dch v mua h v bn h cho khch hng: ng dng: dng bi ton tnh chi ph, thu nhp ca mt cng ty XNK Bi tp 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 24/T62 64, Bi tp v bi gii Ti chnh quc t b. u c t gi: u c giao ngay u c k hn

c. Kinh doanh chnh lch gi

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Cu hi 20. iu g xy ra nu hot ng u c t gi giao ngay vo cuc? Cu hi 21. iu g xy ra nu hot ng u c k hn vo cuc? Cu hi 22: Cho cc thng tin sau y: Trn th trng FX: mua c 1 USD ngi ta phi b ra 18.000 VND. Ti VCB H Ni: Ngi ta bn 1 USD th c VCB H Ni tr cho 19.000 VND.

Hi: Nu bn bit c thng tin trn th bn s lm g? iu g xy ra sau ? Ti sao?

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T gi cho gin n T gi cho phc hp

Trng hp 1: USD l ng tin yt gi Trng hp 2: USD l ng tin yt gi v l ng tin nh gi. Trng hp 3: USD l ng tin nh gi

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CD -Tod T

Tom T+1

Spot T+2

Forward (T + n)+2

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Cc khon thu nhp t ngi khc, khng k nguyn nhn pht sinh, gi l lung tin dng (positive cash flow PCF)

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Mt NHTM X c cc giao dch pht sinh trong Qy II/2010 nh sau: Huy ng vn bng VND 200 t; USD bng 500.000 USD. Thu li t khch hng 20 t VND, 100.000 USD. Tr li cho TGKH 10 t VND, 80.000 USD. Cho DN vay theo chng trnh kch cu ca CP 300 t VND Cho vay thanh ton XNK 200.000 USD. Thanh l hp ng mua k hn USD, tr gi hp ng 500.000 USD, t gi k hn USD/VND = 19.000 Lung tin rng cui Qy I/2010 VND l 300 t v USD l 250.000 USD.

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Xc nh lung tin rng cui Qy II/2010 ca NHTM theo l thuyt v theo thc t?

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Cc khon chi tr cho ngi khc, khng k nguyn nhn pht sinh, gi l lung tin m (Negative cash flow NCF)

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Mt NHTM X c cc giao dch pht sinh trong Qy II/2010 nh sau: Huy ng vn bng VND 200 t; USD bng 500.000 USD. Thu li t khch hng 20 t VND, 100.000 USD. Tr li cho TGKH 10 t VND, 80.000 USD. Cho DN vay theo chng trnh kch cu ca CP 300 t VND Cho vay thanh ton XNK 200.000 USD. Thanh l hp ng mua k hn USD, tr gi hp ng 500.000 USD, t gi k hn USD/VND = 19.000 Lung tin rng cui Qy I/2010 VND l 300 t v USD l 250.000 USD.

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Xc nh lung tin rng cui Qy II/2010 ca NHTM theo l thuyt v theo thc t?

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Trng thi lung tin

NETCF (t1 = PCF (t1 t1 NCF (t1 t1 ) ) ) NETCF (t1 Trng thi lung tin rng thi im t1 ) PCF (t1 t1 Tng lung tin dng trong k tnh ton t1 t1 ) NCF (t1 t1 Tng lung tin m trong k tnh ton t1 t1 )

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Mt NHTM X c cc giao dch pht sinh trong Qy II/2010 nh sau: Huy ng vn bng VND 200 t; USD bng 500.000 USD. Thu li t khch hng 20 t VND, 100.000 USD. Tr li cho TGKH 10 t VND, 80.000 USD. Cho DN vay theo chng trnh kch cu ca CP 300 t VND Cho vay thanh ton XNK 200.000 USD. Thanh l hp ng mua k hn USD, tr gi hp ng 500.000 USD, t gi k hn USD/VND = 19.000 Lung tin rng cui Qy I/2010 VND l 300 t v USD l 250.000 USD.

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Xc nh lung tin rng cui Qy II/2010 ca NHTM theo l thuyt v theo thc t?

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NETCF (t1 )
Dng m Bng khng

Pht sinh li Li sut tng Li sut gim Khng pht sinh

Pht sinh l Li sut gim Li sut tng Khng pht sinh

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Trng thi lung tin trn thc t

NETCF (t ) = NETCF (t 1+ PCF (t ) NCF (t ) ) NETCF (t ) Trng thi lung tin rng cui ngy giao dch t

NETCF (t 1 ) Trng thi lung tin rng cui ngy giao dcht 1

PCF (t ) Tng lung tin dng trong ngy giao dch t NCF (t )
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Tng lung tin m trong ngy giao dch

t
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Nghin cu Bng lu chuyn tin t ca VCB Qy II/2010 ..\VCB_BCTC_QUYII_2010.pdf V phn tch, nu NHNN thc hin: a/ Chnh sch tin t ni lng b/ Chnh sch tin t tht cht.

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Cc khon giao dch lm pht sinh s chuyn giao quyn s hu v ngoi t lm pht sinh trng thi ngoi t (The Foreign Exchange Position EP)

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Thi im pht sinh trng thi ngoi t l ngay thi im k kt hp ng ch khng phi ti thi im thanh ton.

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Cc khon giao dch lm tng quyn s hu v mt ngoi t s lm pht sinh trng thi trng ngoi t (Long Foreign Currency LFC)

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Mt NHTM X c cc giao dch pht sinh trong Qy II/2010 nh sau: Ngy 1/8 mua giao ngay 10.000 USD ti VND = 19.000 Ngy 2/8 bn giao ngay 19.500.000 ti VND = 19.500 Ngy 4/8 vay trn TTLNH 500.000 USD, thi hn 1 thng, li sut 3,25%/nm Ngy 6/8 cho vay qua m 100 t VND trn TTLNH, li sut 6,5%/nm. Ngy 10/8 bn k hn 100.000 USD 10 ngy mua JPY theo t gi k hn JPY = 180,23 Ngy 11/8 thanh ton hp ng KH 15 ngy mua 20.000 USD thanh ton bng GBP ti GBP = 1,5524 Ngy 15/8 b cp 300.000 GBP trn ng vn chuyn
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Cc giao dch lm gim QSH v mt ngoi t s lm pht sinh trng thi on ngoi t (Short Foreign Currency SFC).

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Mt NHTM X c cc giao dch pht sinh trong Qy II/2010 nh sau: Ngy 1/8 mua giao ngay 10.000 USD ti VND = 19.000 Ngy 2/8 bn giao ngay 19.500.000 ti VND = 19.500 Ngy 4/8 vay trn TTLNH 500.000 USD, thi hn 1 thng, li sut 3,25%/nm Ngy 6/8 cho vay qua m 100 t VND trn TTLNH, li sut 6,5%/nm. Ngy 10/8 bn k hn 100.000 USD 10 ngy mua JPY theo t gi k hn JPY = 180,23 Ngy 11/8 thanh ton hp ng KH 15 ngy mua 20.000 USD thanh ton bng GBP ti GBP = 1,5524 Ngy 15/8 b cp 300.000 GBP trn ng vn chuyn
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L chnh lch gia TSC v TSN (ni bng v ngoi bng) ca mt ngoi t. Nu TSC > TSN th ngoi t trng thi rng dng; ngc li, ngoi t trng thi rng m.

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NEPF (t )
Dng m Bng khng

Pht sinh li T gi tng T gi gim Khng pht sinh

Pht sinh l T gi gim T gi tng Khng pht sinh

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Cc phng php tnh trng thi ngoi t rng

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PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin Gio trnh Ti chnh quc t, Tr.95 - 99

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