1

PHAN
TICH
KY
THUAT
UNG DJNG THJC TIEN UNG DJNG THJC TIEN
2
Xet bin dng gia trong qua khu
D du bao bin dng gia ca trong tuong lai
PHAN TICH KY THUAT L GI ? PHAN TICH KY THUAT L GI ?
3
GII
THIJU
!hn tich k thut ap dung cho :
- C phiu
- Chi s
- Hang hoa
- Cac hop dng giao sau
- Bt ky cac loai cng cu tai chinh co th giao dich.
4
W Nghin cu hnh dng th| trung :
- Gi
- Khi lung giao d|ch
- Giao d|ch tim nng: hp dng giao sau,
quyn chn.
1hng qua s dng cc d th, nhm d bo
cc xu hung gi trong tuong lai.
MJC TIU
PHAN TICH
KY THUAT
5
Gi o dy c th l :
- Gia mo cua
- Gia dong cua
- Gia cao nht
- Gia thp nht
Da trn :
- Cac du liu gia giao dich hang ngay, hang thang
hoc keo dai nhiu gio hoc nhiu nm.
GII
THIJU
Gia d|nh
W Gi phan nh tt ca hnh dng th| trung
W Gi d|ch chuyn theo xu hung
W Qu kh t n s l}p li
7
Gi c
phn nh
tt c
nhng yu
t
co bn ca
th[ trung
Gi phan nh tt ca hnh dng th| trung
- Tm ly nha du tu
- Mi truong kinh t, chinh tri
- Tin tuc ln tin dn
- Kha nng tng truong, phat trin cua doanh nghip
- Li l cua cng ty..
8
Gi c
phn nh
tt c
nhng yu
t
co bn ca
th[ trung
Gi phan nh tt ca hnh dng th| trung
Phn tch k thut chi ch trng :
Biu d
Su giao dng gi c
S luong c phiu duoc mua bn
Phn don s In xung ca gi Phn don s In xung ca gi

Gi d|ch chuyn theo xu hung:

K thut trong phn tich k thut v ban cht la theo sau xu huong d
nhn dang va theo dui nhung xu huong dang tn tai cho toi khi co cac
du hiu v su dao nguoc xu huong xay ra
10
Qu kh t n s l}p li
!hn tich k thut - nghin cuu hanh dng thi truong la
nghin cuu tm ly con nguoi, la cai thuong co xu huong
khng thay di.
hinh v th m tuong lai l s lp li cua qu kh
11
Phn tch k thut quan tm dn ?
!hn tich k thut quan tm dn cu hoi: ci
g hon l ti sao.
12
$ khc nhau gia d bo bng phn tch co ban v phn tch k
thut
W ghin cuu cac anh huong kinh t
cua cung cu gy ra su dich
chuyn gia ca nhm xac dinh gia
tri ni tai cua thi truong.
W ghin cuu nguyn nhn cua su
dich chuyn.
W Co xu huong chuyn mn hoa vao
mt nhom nhn t nao do nn s
khng linh hoat
W ghin cuu hanh dng thi truong
W ghin cuu tac dng cua su dich
chuyn.
W Linh hoat va co kha nng thich
ung do bao quat buc tranh lon
theo dui tt ca cac thi truong
trong nhiu hoan canh kinh
doanh khac nhau, thoi gian khac
nhau
!hn tich co ban !hn tich co ban !hn tich k thut !hn tich k thut
13
Kin thc cn thit khi tm hiu phn tch k thut
phn tch v d bo gi chng khon
14
L THUYET DOW
15
Dow
cho
rng
hung bin dng thi truong voi moi xu
huong du co th duoc du doan truoc
trn co so bin dng gia trn cac biu
d.
16
Gia
dinh
!hn lon cac chung khoan tun theo xu huong co ban
cua thi truong.
Xu th xu huong co ban cua thi truong duoc hiu la
chi s gia binh qun - phan anh xu th chung cua mt
s c phiu dai din cho thi truong.
17
Cc
tin
d
W Chi su dung gia dong cua.
Gia phan anh la gia dong cua, co th du doan duoc, va tac
dng dn mi quan h cung cu cua thi truong
W $u dung chi s trung binh.
Chi s trung binh la trung binh hoa tt ca:
- Cac bin dng tung ngay
- Cac diu kin tac dng ln cung - cu cac c phiu,
- hung quyt dinh du tu bt ngo khng du doan duoc
18
Giai thch
l thuyt
Dow
L thuyt Dow duc xy dng da trn
6 nguyn l co ban
1
NGUYN L 1:
Gm moi thng tin: cac yu t v kinh t chinh tri, cac
yu tm ly, kha nng tng truong loi nhun cua cng ty
Tt ca cac kin thuc cua tt ca nhung nguoi tham gia vao thi
truong (nha giao dich, nha du tu, nha quan tri danh muc.)
Gi phan
nh tt ca
hnh dng
th| trung
20
W $u dich chuyn chinh: (primary movement)
W hung phan ung thu cp: (secondary reaction)
W hung su dich chuyn nho: (minor movements)
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
21
$ d|ch chuyn chnh: (primary movement)
Trong thi truong du co gia ln: (bull market)
La su dich chuyn ln trn mt cach rng lon, it nht la 18 thang.
Thi truong du co gia xung: (bear market)
La mt su giam gia keo dai va s ngung lai khi co nhung su phuc
hi dang k trong gia c phiu.
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
22
$ d|ch chuyn chnh: (primary movement)
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
23
La su sut giam quan trong trong thi truong du co gia
ln hoc mt su tng gia quan trong trong thi truong
du co gia xung
Khoang thoi gian dich chuyn nhin chung thoai lui tu
33 - 66 (1/3 dn 2/3)
Keo dai tu 3 tun dn nhiu thang, thng thuong 3
thang
Nhng phan ng th cp:
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
24
50
150
50
100
Nhng phan ng th cp:
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
25
VNM
Nhng phan ng th cp:
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
26
o chi quan trong trong vic hinh thanh nn mt
phn cua su dich chuyn chinh cng nhu dich
chuyn thu cp.
Keo dai tu khoang vai gio cho dn khng qua ba
tun
s chuyn d|ch nho
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
27
VNM
NGUYN L 2:
Th| trung
c 3 s
chuyn d|ch
s chuyn d|ch nho
28
Mi xu hung thung xay ra trong ba
giai don ring bit
NGUYN L 3:
Nhng
dung xu
hung chi
ra s
chuyn d|ch
2
Giai don tch lu: 9h hin vic mua c hiu bi9 cc nh
du 9u 9inh 9hng
Giai don tham gia cng chng: xy ra khi cc mc gi
b9 du gia 9gng m9 cch nhanh chng v nhng 9in 9c
kinh doanh s duoc ci 9hin
Giai don phn phi: khi nhng 9in 9c kinh 9 9r nn 99
hon v khi khi luong c 9Jnh ch9 du co v su 9ham gia
cng chng gia 9gng
Trong th[
trung
gi In c
3 giai
doan:
30
Trong th[
trung
gi
xung
c 3 giai
doan:
Giai doan phn phi
Giai doan hong Ioan
Giai doan bn bt buc
31
VNM
NGUYN L 3:
Nhng
dung xu
hung chi
ra s
chuyn d|ch
32
Mi quan h co ban la khi luong tng khi gia phuc
hi va thu hep khi gia giam.
u khi luong tro nn u dong khi gia tng va gia
tng khi gia giam, canh bao rng xu huong chinh
som bi dao nguoc.
NGUYN L 4:
Cc mi
quan h gi
v khi
lung to ra
nn tang co
ban
33
NGUYN L 4:
Cc mi
quan h gi
v khi
lung to ra
nn tang co
ban
VNM
34
u hiu tng gia duoc dua ra khi su tng gia lin tip
tao ra cac dinh cao hon va su giam gia xen vao tao thanh
cac day cao hon. Va nguoc lai di voi du hiu giam
gia.
NGUYN L 5:
Hnh dng
gi xc d|nh
xu hung
35
X
Tn hiu bn
NGUYN L 5:
Hnh dng
gi xc d|nh
xu hung
36
X
Y
NGUYN L 5:
Hnh dng
gi xc d|nh
xu hung
37
X
NGUYN L 5:
Hnh dng
gi xc d|nh
xu hung
38
X
Y
NGUYN L 5:
Hnh dng
gi xc d|nh
xu hung
3
guyn tc quan trong nht la su dich chuyn hai
chi s:
Chi s binh qun nganh cng nghip: la trung binh
gia cua 20 c phiu cng nghip cua M
Chi s binh qun nganh giao thng vn tai
(Transportation): la trung binh gia cua 12 c phiu
nganh giao thng vn tai M
NGUYN L 6:
Danh mc
phai duc
xc d|nh
40
Trong m9 nn kinh 9 ph9 9rin khi ngnh
cng nghip ph9 9rin 9h ngnh giao 9hng
vn 9i cng ph9 9rin 9heo nn 2 chi s bnh
qun ngnh cng nghip v bnh qun ngnh
giao 9hng vn 9i s cng c ln nhau
NGUYN L 6:
Danh mc
phai duc
xc d|nh
41
ndustrial
Transportation
A B
Tin hiu ban
NGUYN L 6:
Danh mc
phai duc
xc d|nh
42
ndustrial
Transportation
A B
Tin hiu ban
NGUYN L 6:
Danh mc
phai duc
xc d|nh
43
HAN CHE
W Ly thuyt ow co d tr
W Khng phai la lun dung
W Thuong lam cho nha du tu phai bn khon
W Khng giup gi duoc cho nhung nha du tu theo cac
bin dng trung gian
44
45

34 34
55 55
89 89
144 144
v.v v.v
s s
fibo fibo- -
nacci nacci
46
Tng cua 2 s lin k bt k bng s cao hon truc d
$au 4 s du tin, ty l cua mt s bt ky vi s ln hon tip
d gn bng 0.618.
Ty s cua mt s bt ky vi s thp hon k tip l gn bng
1.618, ho}c nguc li l 0.618.
Nhng ty s cua nhng s xen k gn bng 2,618 ho}c
nguc li 0.382.
AC
TRUNG
CA DY
FIBON-
ACCI
47
Du co su anh huong cua song bin vao trong cng thuc,
ly thuyt cua ca 2 ng
hung xu huong chinh, xu huong thu cp, xu huong nho
trn thi truong cua ow
Chinh la nhung dot thuy triu, nhung dot song, nhung gon
song trn dai duong cua ly thuyt song Elliott
Mi quan h gia l thuyt Dow v sng Elliott
48
NGUYN L
CO
BN
Mu hnh: m hinh song
Ty l: D xac dinh dim thoai lui va muc gia muc
tiu bng cach do luong nhung mi quan h giua
nhung song khac nhau.
Thi gian
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
4
Thi truong chung khoan cho phep nhip diu lp di
lp lai cua 8 song voi 5 song tin va 3 song lui.
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
NGUYN L
CO
BN
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
50
Trong 5 sng 9in: dnh s 1,2,3,4,5
+ Sng 1, 3, 5: l sng dy
+ Sng 2, 4 djch chuyn nguoc chiu xu hung 9rn,
goi l sng hiu chinh
Sau 5 sng 9in 9h 3 sng li duoc xc djnh bi 3 k 9u a,
b, c.
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
NGUYN L
CO
BN
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
51
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
NGUYN L
CO
BN
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
52
Mi song s chia nho ra nhiu song voi cp d thp hon,
Mi song la mt phn cua cp d song cao hon k tip.
W Cac song cung chiu voi xu huong cua song lon hon s
duoc phn chia thanh 5 song nho
W Cac song nguoc chiu voi xu huong lon hon s duoc
phn chia thanh 3 song nho
u hinh: m hinh sng
NGUYN L
CO
BN
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
53
u hinh: m hinh sng
PHN
CHIA
SNG
ELLIOTT
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
54
Trong mt thi truong gia ln:
u co mt su sut giam 5 song thi bao hiu rng
no chi la mt song du tin cua mt dot gm 3
song giam (a,b,c)
Bao hiu s co nhiu song dn hon bn duoi
u hinh: m hinh sng
NHAN BIT NHAN BIT
DU DU
HIEU HIEU
TH[ TRUNG TH[ TRUNG
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
55
u hinh: m hinh sng
NHAN BIT NHAN BIT
DU DU
HIEU HIEU
TH[ TRUNG TH[ TRUNG
TNG TNG
GI GI
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
56
Trong mt th| trung gi xung:
W u co mt dot 3 song ln thi theo sau no thuong co
mt dot 5 song giam tip theo
W Mt su phuc hi 5 song co th bao truoc mt su dich
chuyn dang k hon dn phn trn va thm chi co th
song du tin cua mt xu huong tng gia moi
u hinh: m hinh sng
NHAN BIT NHAN BIT
DU DU
HIEU HIEU
TH[ TRUNG TH[ TRUNG
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
57
Day cua song 4 chua dung thi truong gia xung.
Thng tin nay huu ich trong vic xac dinh mt muc gia
muc tiu giam ti da.
5 song ln d hoan thanh, xu huong gia giam d bt du,
rng thi truong gia xung s khng dich chuyn duoi song
4 truoc do o mt muc d thp hon.
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng Sng 4 4
nhu I nhu I
pham pham
vi chng vi chng
d d
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
58
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng Sng 4 4
nhu I nhu I
pham pham
vi chng vi chng
d d
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
5
$ng hiu chinh zig- zag: La m hinh hiu
chinh 3 song, nguoc lai voi xu huong chinh,
chung tach thanh chui 5-3-5.
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
$NG $NG
HIJU HIJU
CHINH CHINH
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
60
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
zigzag
trong th[
trung gi
In
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
61
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
zigzag
trong th[
trung gi
xung
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
62
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
zigzag
nhn
di
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
63
Cng c hon sng hiu chinh v l du hiu vng
chc 9rong 2 9hj 9rung gi ln chng 9ch 9hnh
chui 3-3-5
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
phng
FLATS
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
64
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
phng
FLATS
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
65
Thung xy ra sng 9h 4 (hoc l sng b).
Gm 5 sng mi sng ln luo9 c 3 sng nh (3-3-
3-3-3)
Th 9u su djch chuyn cui cng hung v xu
hung chJnh.
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
hnh hnh
tam tam
gic gic
Tri Tri- -angles angles
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
66
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
Sng hiu
chinh
hnh hnh
tam tam
gic gic
Tri Tri- -angles angles
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
67
ld channel
ew channel
Mu hnh: m hnh sng
HJ HJ
THNG THNG
KNH KNH
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
68
Mt trong ba song dy di khi keo dai. Hai song
khac tuong ung la thoi gian va cuong d. u
song 5 keo dai thi song 1 va song 3 s gn bng
nhau.
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
6
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
70
Ti thiu
nh sng 3 = (chiu dai sng 1)x1,618 +daysng 2
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
71
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
T Ti thi i thi u u
ddnh sng nh sng S S = (chi = (chi u dai sng u dai sng 11) . ) .33..236 236+ + day day sng sng 11
72
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
T Ti da i da
ddnh sng nh sng S S = (chi = (chi u dai sng u dai sng 11) ) 33..236 236+ + ddnh nh sng sng 11
73
u song u song 1 1 va song va song 3 3 gn bng nhau gn bng nhau
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
nh sng nh sng SS=| (d =| (dnh nh 33 day day 11)x )x 11,,618 618] + day sng ] + day sng 44
74
Di voi nhung song hiu chinh (3 song lui),
mt song hiu chinh zig zag 5-3-5
thng thuong, song c
thung gan bng chiu dai cua song a.
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
75
Trong truong hop song hiu chinh ( 3 song
lui) phng 3-3-5 nu
song b dt duoc hoc vuot qua dnh song a,
song c s gan bng 1,618 chiu dai cua
song a.
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
76
WThng thung :
chiu dai song c chiu dai song a ( chiu
dai song a x 0,618)
W Trong truong hop song hiu chinh ( 3 song lui) la
mt tam giac di xung, song sau bng song truoc
nhn 0,618.
T LE
Nhng ty
l Fibo-
nacci v
s thoi
li
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
77
hung con s duoc su dung thng thuong nht trong
vic phn tich su thoai lui la 61,8, 38 va 50.
Trong mt xu huong tng manh, mt ty l phn trm
thoai lui ti thiu thuong lam tron la 38.
Trong mt xu huong tng yu hon, ty l phn trm
thoai lui thuong la 62
T LE
T
I
phn
trm
s
thoi
Ii Fibon-
acci
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
78
T LE
T
I
phn
trm
s
thoi
Ii Fibon-
acci
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
7
hung muc tiu thoi gian Fibonacci co th tim thy
bng cach dm v phia truoc tu nhung dinh va day
quan trong
THI GIAN
Nhng
mc tiu
thi gian
Fibon-
acci
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
80
THI GIAN
Nhng
mc tiu
thi gian
Fibon-
acci
a kha cnh quan trng ca sng Elliot:
81
W Hoan canh y tuong xut hin khi cung xut hin hinh thuc song,phn tich
ti l va nhung muc tiu thoi gian.
V: Khi song thu 5 hoan thanh va d keo dai 21ngay, voi: Dinh song
5| (dinh 3- day 1)x 1,618|
Thi thoi gian din ra 5 song tin nay d duoc 13 tun nu xu huong truoc
do la xu huong gia giam, va 34 tun nu xu huong truoc do la xu huong
gia tng.
KT HOP 3 KHA CANH L THUYT SNG
82
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
83
4 nghin cu Fibonacci ph bin:
W Arcs- 'duong vong cung
W Fans- 'duong r quat
W #etracement- 'duong vach
W Time zones- 'min thoi gian
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
84
lung vng cung- Arcs
Duong xu huong giua hai dim cuc (mt thp
dim va cao dim di din)
Ba duong vong cung v sau do, duoc dt trung tm ln
dim cuc thu hai. n chung ct duong xu huong o cac
muc Fibonacci la 38,2; 50; 61,8
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
85
lung vng cung- Arcs
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
86
Duong xu huong giua hai dim cuc
Duong thng dung 'n duoc v ra thng qua dim cuc
thu hai
Ba duong xu huong sau do duoc v tu dim cuc du tin
d chung chay ngang qua duong thng dung 'n tai cac
muc Fibonacci 38,2; 50; 61,8
lung r qut FAN
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
87
lung vng cung- Arcs
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
88
lung vng cung- Arcs
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
8
Duong xu huong giua hai dim cuc.
Mt chui gm 9 duong thng nm ngang duoc v cach
duong xu huong tai cac muc Fibonacci: 0; 23,6;
38,2; 50; 61,8; 100; 161,8; 261,8; va 423,6
lung vch Fibonacci- Retracement
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
0
Hnh d 9hj
lung vch Fibonacci- Retracement
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
1
La mt chui cac duong thng dung.
Chung duoc dt cach nhau tai cac khoang thoi gian
Fibonacci 1, 2, 3, 5,
8,13, 21, 34,.
Min thi gian Fibonacci- Time zones
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
2
Min thi gian Fibonacci- Time zones
FIBONACCI
CNG
CU
PHN
TCH
KY
THUAT
3
PHN TCH ELLIOT CO PHIU VNM
4
VNINDEX
5
VNINDEX